Princeton Policy Advisors: How Long Will The War Last
Many in the media and politics anticipated dramatic and rapid Ukrainian victories during the summer of 2023. Nevertheless, progress on the ground has been slow, raising the prospects of a protracted war.
This begs the question: Just how much longer could the war last?
The precedent of prior wars is one way of looking at the issue. On the graph below, we consider the three wars perhaps most similar to the current war, each involving Russia.
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WNU Editor: My Russian and Ukrainian contacts believe this war is going to last into 2024.
As to what is my take.
I originally thought that the war would end around 2023 - 2024. But with the Kremlin's announcement last week that the conscription age has been raised to 30, I am not sure. There is a very strong possibility that if the West continues to supply Ukraine the weapons and ammo that it needs, this war can easily go into 2025.
When is the Korean War going to end?
ReplyDeleteFun fact about Eritrea from Wikepedia:
"National service enlistment times may be extended during times of "national crisis"; since 1998, everyone under the age of 50 is enlisted in national service for an indefinite period until released, which may depend on the arbitrary decision of a commander. In a study of 200 escaped conscripts, the average service was 6.5 years, and some had served more than 12 years."
I wait for the fat lady to sing
ReplyDeleteSorry. Fat lady is now a man and plays football.
ReplyDelete