Was Russian President Putin Paralyzed And Unable To Act In The First Hours Of The Wagner Rebellion?

 

Washington Post: Putin appeared paralyzed and unable to act in first hours of rebellion 

LONDON — When Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, launched his attempted mutiny on the morning of June 24, Vladimir Putin was paralyzed and unable to act decisively, according to Ukrainian and other security officials in Europe. No orders were issued for most of the day, the officials said. 

The Russian president had been warned by the Russian security services at least two or three days ahead of time that Prigozhin was preparing a possible rebellion, according to intelligence assessments shared with The Washington Post. Steps were taken to boost security at several strategic facilities, including the Kremlin, where staffing in the presidential guard was increased and more weapons were handed out, but otherwise no actions were taken, these officials said.  

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WNU Editor: The Washington Post admits that a major source for the above article comes from Ukrainian intelligence. Just that alone should put into question the accuracy of the Washington Post's analysis. 

As to what is my take on the rebellion a month after it happened. 

From what we now know, Wagner's contract with the Russian government was coming to an end on July 1. Yevgeniy Prigozhin was also going to lose other contracts where he was providing meals and other services to the Russian military. It should also be pointed out that Wagner soldiers were being paid up to 10x what regular Russian soldiers were being paid (see tweet below). 

Bottom line. 

There was a big financial reason for Yevgeniy Prigozhin and some of his soldiers to rebel. As to their rebellion. Best estimates that I have seen is that about 5% of Wagner's forces were involved. The vast majority choose not to get involved. 

When the rebellion started there were talks to resolve the crisis overnight, but they failed. President Putin immediately went on national television branding these actions as treasonous, and we learned early next day that a brigade of elite Chechen soldiers were ordered deployed to the center of the rebellion. Not surprising, Wagner's mutinous soldiers immediately hit the road to Moscow. 

During this time a Russian Army group based near Moscow was put on high alert, and the Kremlin's defenses were put on a war footing. During this time Putin remained in Moscow, and from what I understand, he was in the Kremlin during this entire 24 hour crisis. 

So what does a leader do when he is facing a crisis like this one? His focus will be to rally support and defuse and/or end the crisis.

During this time every political leader in Russia phoned the Kremlin to voice their support of Putin's government. And I know from my own family, friends, and contacts in Russia, no one, and I mean no one, supported this rebellion. Yevgeniy Prigozhin and the Wagner Group are popular in Russia, but not to the point of overthrowing the Russian government. 

During the ride to Moscow a number of Russian military helicopters sent to monitor the convoy were shot down. From what I understand, in total 13 servicemen were killed. After that, there was a air strike on the lead vehicles of this convoy, and the convoy stopped. A hasty agreement brokered by Lukashenko was made, and this convoy returned back to their barracks from where this rebellion first started. 

Since then Wagner has been disbanded with only a fraction of what remains of the group (about eight thousand soldiers) being deployed to Belarus. All heavy military equipment has been returned, and the remaining soldiers offered contracts to join the Russian Army. From what I understand, almost all of them have signed on. 

So was Putin paralyzed and unable to act in the first hours of the rebellion. I do not see that. I think he was the opposite, furious and determined to crush it with a minimal loss of life. Russian soldiers fighting Russian soldiers was not what he wanted, and in the end he succeeded, albeit some Russian and Wagner soldiers were killed. 

The big question that should be asked is why the Washington Post article now? The Wager rebellion will be a remembered as a footnote to the war, nothing more and nothing less. But why the persistent focus from the West on it? 

I think it has more to do about diverting the media narrative. Especially now as Ukraine's counteroffensive looks like a failure, and the growing reports of infighting between President Zelensky and his senior generals.

In the past few days social media in both Russia and Ukraine have also been abuzz on Ukrainian soldiers surrendering on mass. Especially in the northeast of the country where Russia has just launched a massive counterattack. The videos I have seen have been jaw-dropping. Granted .... Russia is conducting an extensive propaganda campaign to convince Ukrainian soldiers to lay down their arms. But even if half of these videos are accurate, Kyiv has a right to be worried. The impact on public opinion of Ukrainian soldiers will stir panic and a loss of support from the West. So what better way to make sure this does not happen is by focusing on disunity in the Russian military, and public opposition to Putin.

One more note. 

The Wagner rebellion did accomplish a few things that has benefited Putin. A major and public critic of Putin's war strategy has now been completely neutered. There has also been a purge of a number of Russian Generals who were closely linked to Yevgeniy Prigozhin, and who supported his calls to escalate the conflict to an all out declaration of war against Kyiv. But this is minor when compared to what is really important in Putin's eyes, and that is support from the Russian public, albeit they are frustrated with what they believe is his cautious approach to the war.

Wagner mercenaries typically receive ten times more pay than Russian soldiers.

How does this salary gap explain the growing influence of private military firms in Russia? pic.twitter.com/f0BC7sp0VC

— DW News (@dwnews) June 29, 2023