Zero Hedge/Epoch Times: Russia's Ukraine Strategy Is To Outlast American Aid: Austin
Russian military strategy in Ukraine is currently focused on outlasting the United States’ will to provide equipment rather than making serious advances, Pentagon leadership says.
Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that he can wait for the United States to stop funding Ukraine before recommitting his forces to the attempted conquest of the nation, said Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
“In Ukraine, Putin has felt that he could wait us out. That’s part of his strategy. The main part of his strategy,” Mr. Austin told the Senate Appropriations Committee on Oct. 31.
“He feels like the West will get tired of supporting Ukraine and he’ll soon have his way.”
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WNU Editor: Russia does not have to wait and outlast American aid. The debate in Washington on continuing to fund Ukraine is more than enough to change the dynamics of the war. One only has to look at Afghanistan and what happened there.
When it became clear that the US was not going to provide the monies and resources to Kabul at the levels that they were accustomed to, the senior leadership in the Afghan government and military stopped distributing funds to the lower ranks and regions, preferring to keep these funds and resources to themselves. This resulted in troops not being paid, and military resupply, especially to the outer provinces, stopping.
I predict the same will happen in Ukraine.
Once it becomes known in Kyiv that Western aid may be cut and/or stopped, soldiers are not going to be paid, and resources that would otherwise be transferred to the front will instead be hoarded by the senior leadership in Kyiv. And like Afghanistan, with no support the Ukraine army will dissolve and melt away.
This is the problem of dealing with allies who are inherently corrupt. And as I had mentioned more than once in this blog. Ukraine is one of the most corrupt place on earth, and that was before this war.
"Ukraine is one of the most corrupt place on earth" - Certainly not Russia right? As we all know Russia is a haven of saints and good'boys.
ReplyDeleteWNU coming out in force in his anti-western, anti-ukraine commentary more than usual.
Russia has a 2 or 3 year supply of tanks and IFVs factoring in new production. Tanks and IFVs are not what to watch for.
ReplyDeleteThe Republic of Chuvash, which is not large had over a hundred death notices in one day. I do not think WNU gives a shit. Interesting history, Chuvash. An amalgam of Finnic (Mari/Mordvinians) and a smattering of Turks welded together. Too bad they had to die for Putin's elective war.
Wagner PMC threw in with Hamas. That is short of an official Russian position, but not by much.
My take away is that WNU is a supporter of Hamas and will be open about in the future.
My position is I would rather see Russia nuked than lose in Ukraine. Just one person, right? that position will grow with time. You do not need 100% onboard for it to happen.
People may underestimate the new House Speaker. We are in the midst of a pissing contest. If the speaker wins, watch out. We shall see.
Anon 10:39
ReplyDeleteYou are ignoring history and therefore doomed to repeat it.
What happened in Afghanistan is being duplicated in Ukraine. But at a faster timetable. I see the US bailing out in a year or two, a sentiment that many Ukrainians are starting to realize.
Anon 10:53
Hamas is a terrorist organization dedicated to the extermination of Israel.
I have never been a supporter of this group nor will be in the future.
These guys are either paid or insane. But it shows that your blog carries an irresistible light in the suffocating atmosphere of fake news.
Delete"Hamas is a terrorist organization dedicated to the extermination of Israel.
ReplyDeleteI have never been a supporter of this group nor will be in the future."
You back Russia. Russia backs Hamas. It is not just the Wagner people, who BTW cannot go too far off the reservation without having their chain yanked.
There were Russian speakers alongside Hamas, when they breach the concrete border wall. they could be freelance. They could be Spetsnaz. With the paucity of open source intel, we could dance around this all day. But I bet Israel knows or will know for sure soon. They will make Russia pay and of course it will be deniable. My guess is that they will make them pay in Africa and maybe the Middle East too. Africa would be the low hanging fruit for a quick win. the Middle East ops will happpen because they feel they have to.
Editor is right. You need to listen to this pod cast from the University Of Texas
ReplyDeleteFrom
Brought to you by the Texas National Security Review, this podcast features lectures, interviews, and panel discussions at the University of Texas.
https://hornsofadilemma.libsyn.com/the-inverse-midas-touch-why-americas-interventions-so-often-go-wrong
This is one of the reasons I say the Ukrainians will lose: and a big part will be from "their so called leaders" own incompetence and greed.
You see the same thing in right now in Ukraine as we saw in Afghanistan.
Soon to a theater near you , .....the next stage... Once the money / pig fest dries up.
Commanders abandoning their troops...Leaders taking the money and running.
That happened in Afghanistan and will happen in the Ukraine.
You heard it here first.
There is no proof that Russians Spetsnaz were in with Hamas. and to insinuate so is stupid. You are making things up again.
ReplyDelete* Does not deny that Wagner is throwing in with Hamas
ReplyDelete* There is video of Russian speakers breaching wall with Hamas on Twitter
* Here is the Kremlin playing footsies with Hamas: Russia invites Hamas leaders for Kremlin visit
The Russians were screaming: "Прикрывайте! Прикрывайте!" I think they pissed themselves.
The Hamas attack has forced Russia to get off the fence -- does it back Israel, or Hamas? Russia has opted for Hamas. This will deprive Russia of access to valuable technology and might cause many Russians living in Israel to cut ties with the homeland.
ReplyDeleteWNU Editor has long stopped providing actual analysis on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. His blog is now simply a Russian info war op. People who come here must always keep this in mind. He rarely reports any Ukrainian successes or Russian losses except when he absolutely must, and then is always dismissive. His "reporting" and "analysis" has only one purpose - to demoralize Ukraine and its supporters so they cease resisting Russia.
ReplyDeleteAfghanistan has been a failed state with a barely functioning government ever since the monarchy was overthrown in the seventies. Ukraine, despite its high level of corruption, did function. Things have improved albeit at a slower pace than it should after Euromaidan. And Ukraine has a very strong civil society that has preserved democracy and pushes for change. There never seemed to be a strong desire of Afghanis to actually fight against the Taliban despite them being unpopular. There is obviously a huge desire by Ukrainians to resist the Russians. Ukraine is much more resilient than Afghanistan and its a poor comparison.
Of course Ukraine is dependent on Western support, and if that support falters Ukraine will need to make difficult decisions that may be an unfavorable peace. But that does not mean Ukraine will collapse. It just means it will have to accept certain Russian conditions.
WNU Editor likes to talk about possible problems in Western support because it gives him a reason to post content but not talk about the massive Russian losses at Avdiivka which would be the obvious content for any actual analyst on the Russian invasion at this point in time.
Russian trainers of storm units are reporting that storm units are now suffering 100% casualty rates. 40-70% dead or irretrievably wounded (meaning they can never re-enter combat) and the other 60-30% as sanitary losses (a term I am unfamiliar with but seems to mean the soldier cannot resume combat for at least one day, but could mean multiple days, weeks, or even months). Needless to say if Ukrainian units were anywhere close to 100% losses, WNU Editor would be making multiple posts about it. But since it makes Russian performance look bad, he ignores it.
Russian soldiers are constantly complaining about Ukrainian artillery superiority now and lack of supplies. Complaints by soldiers and their families on Russian soldier media about them being sent into combat with insufficient training, equipment, and support is growing. The severe decline of Russian tactical expertise has become obvious as there have been too many losses in trained crews and junior officers, and their replacements have not been sufficiently trained. This is obvious from actual combat footage and actual Russian social media sources - you don't need to consume Western news to see this. Everyone knows corruption in Russia is also very bad, but WNU Editor never mentions it. But the Russian soldiers and milbloggers routinely complain about it.
Anyone else notice that WNU Editor has stopped posting about the Russian economy now that the ruble has collapsed, Russian airlines are making emergency landings, Russia can only modernize sixty plus year old tanks instead of building new ones, and Russia's interest rates are skyrocketing?
The idea that Russia is not experiencing the same kind of fatigue and uncertainty as Ukraine is false. At some point these losses will become political destabilizing for Putin. Russia is just as desperate as Ukraine to make a favorable peace. It's just that both sides still currently think they can obtain better peace later than they can now, and hoping they can outlast the other side.
Chris
yes Chris. of course,
ReplyDeleteRussia is failing just horribly. Just because you cannot prove any of what you said or that you have been consistently wrong for the last 14 months does not mean a thing!!
And we all know that the Russians have busted equipment, low moral, old tanks, and using human wave attacks and most horribly of all.... do not buy Gucci slippers..
It is also the reason that the Ukraininans are doing so well against the Russians
Just the other day we were discussing the devastating attack on Novosibirsk by the Ukrainian air force and how the Ukrainian army completed routed Russian forces at Tokmak and are headed for Sevastpol right now. Just as you predicted!!
As a matter of fact, Things are so good that zelinski and his entourage are buying new Villas in Argentina. I understand that the Ukrainian military has so much excess equipment , therefore the Ukraine started a new program of Military surplus property sales. And taking advantage of this new Ukrainian program, there are individual Ukrainians, as well as government officials, making a fortune by selling military surplus equipment overseas. Isn't that Great!! Economic prosperity just oozes from this endeavor.
In sum,
In the Past, I have called you a government info ops minion, but after seeing this last post, I am starting to believe that you a just a plain old fing idiot.
You also probably think the American evacuation from Afghanistan was a well executed operation.
God help us, when we have deluded jackasses like you around.
@2:04 PM, Chris
ReplyDeleteRight on the money.
I still remember he stop allowing comments on this blog shortly after the Ukraine invasion using an excuse that doesn't hold up now. He did it because the majority of comments were calling him out on his very one-sided analysis.
He subsequently blocked the comments.
He allowed comments back once again and suddenly, this here blog had gathered a fair few pro-War nutjobs who shouted N.Korean style insults at anyone who called him out on his heavy bias, which he has long accused other journalists of doing.
635
ReplyDeleteYou guys standing in that circle firing squad are smoking some good dope along with the airplane glue. The editor does not conform to your idiotic narrative and that is why you attack him. Dont like it, go somewhere else.
But you cannot do that , because you sit in a little US Gov cubicle and get paid to trash web sites like this.
Chris knows nothing about military operations or Afghanistan , because he has never been in a war or heard a shot fired in anger. That is just one of the reasons his POV is so screwed up when he tries to make intelligent comments concerning war zone.