Ukrainian soldiers cover their ears to protect them from the noise of Russian tank shelling in the Zaporizhzhia region. Libkos/AP
* The U.N. estimated in October that more than 114 million people were displaced by war and conflict worldwide. That figure is now likely higher.
* Isabelle Arradon, research director at the International Crisis Group, told CNBC earlier this month that conflict fatalities globally are at their highest since 2000.
* “All the red flags are there, and on top of that, there is a shortage of means to resolve conflict. There’s a lot of geopolitical competition and less appetite for resolving these deadly conflicts,” she added.
With the eyes of the world on the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, an unprecedented number of potentially “catastrophic” conflicts are going under the radar, analysts have warned.
The International Rescue Committee earlier this month released its emergency watchlist for 2024, documenting the 20 countries at the greatest risk of security deterioration. These countries account for around 10% of the world’s population but around 70% of its displaced persons, along with approximately 86% of global humanitarian need.
Read more ....
Update #1: The crises that may get worse in 2024 (Washington Post)
Update #2: The top 10 crises the world can’t ignore in 2024 (International Rescue Committee)
WNU Editor: The expectation is that 2024 is going to get worse .... A Slew Of New Conflicts Could Erupt In 2024 (CNN).
My twitter wrapped just came in for the year. Let's look back on some of the hits.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1591486606812516352
HIMARS will soon be firing from Kherson. The approaches to Crimea are within range. This will degrade Russian defenses/LOC's while "left wing" of the counter-offensive takes Mariupol & Melitopol by January. Then begins the decisive phase of the campaign...liberation of Crimea.
All roads lead to Crimea...Ukrainian counter-offensive has irreversible momentum. Soon they'll have HIMARS in range of Russian bases in Crimea...those bases become untenable...then it's just a matter of time.
- Ben Hodges, US Lieutenant general, Nov 12 2022
https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1654856392853913600
Nobody has all the details but one thing is clear: this counteroffensive will rewrite military history.
#Ukraine has stuff in the pipeline the Russians will never see coming. And much of what they do see coming, they won’t be able to stop anyway.
#SpringIsComing
We’re about to see what a decentralized, horizontal, innovative high-tech force can do. #Ukraine may be underfunded, undermanned & underequipped compared to RU. But those tactical, adaptive strengths deliver what $ can’t buy & training can’t teach. Get ready for some stunners
- Jessica Berlin, political analyst for DW, May 6 2023
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1525525586797633538?lang=en
As I said in mid April, the turning point of the war in the East is approaching, maybe we even reached it.
Russia's offensive is fully stuck, Putin is recruiting volunteers(!!!) from Chechnya to keep going.
Imho, his force will collapse within the next 2-6 weeks (as predicted).
- Julian "Jihad" Röpcke, BILD journalist, May 14 2022
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1500120722877947906
I’m gonna call this:
I think the Russian armed forces are going to collapse, followed by Putin leaving power.
I can’t say this for certain (obviously), but I think this is the eventuality.
And I think that once the Russian armed forces fall apart, Putin won’t be able to remain in power.
We will see over the next ten days whether I am right.
/ENDS
- Mike Martin, UK politician & Army political officer, Mar 5 2022
And we musn't forget our friend Richard Kemp at the Telegraph. His headlines will feature prominently alongside yakity sax in the Ukraine blooper reel:
The failure of Russia's Wunderwaffe is game over for Putin - May 23, 2023
Putin is terrified of Ukraine's counteroffensive - May 28 2023
A total Russian collapse is surprisingly close - 23 Feb 2023
Russia's time has almost run out - 1 July 2023
Putin's downfall is only delayed. It's coming. - 25 June 2023