Scenarios For The Next U.S. President

SCENARIOS-Middle East Challenges For
Next U.S. President -- Reuters

By Alistair Lyon (Reuters) - Major foreign policy challenges await the next U.S. president in the Middle East. Here are some of the intertwined issues that Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain will inherit from President George W. Bush.

IRAQ

Five years after the U.S.-led invasion, Iraq remains very volatile despite improved security. Higher U.S. troop levels in 2007-08 were one factor in reducing the violence. Others include a U.S.-supported shift by former Sunni insurgents who have turned on their old al Qaeda allies; a ceasefire by the Shi'ite Mehdi Army of anti-U.S. cleric Moqtada al-Sadr; and ethnic and sectarian cleansing that has redrawn Baghdad's communal map.

A recent forced exodus of 1,500 Christian families in north Iraq has underlined the fragility of the security gains.

At stake now is a vital security pact negotiated with the Shi'ite-led government allowing U.S. troops to stay three more years. Iraq wants changes to the deal, which would replace a U.N. Security Council mandate that expires at the end of 2008.

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