Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu points to a red line he has drawn on the graphic of a bomb at the 67th United Nations General Assembly. (Lucas Jackson/Reuters)
Will Iran Get a Bomb—or Be Bombed Itself—This Year? -- Graham Allison, The Atlantic
Placing a bet on today's biggest foreign policy issue.
That Iran's nuclear challenge poses the most urgent threat to peace and security today is widely agreed across the national security community, and many argue that 2013 will be the decisive year for this issue. As former Mossad head Ephraim Halevy notes, Israel "has long believed that mid-2013 would be an hour of decision in its dealings with Iran." Henry Kissinger has recently warned that "we are in the last year where you can say a negotiation can conceivably succeed.... If nothing happens, the president will have to make some really tough decisions."
There can be no question whatsoever that in 2013 Iran could get a bomb; there is also no question that Iran could be bombed. But my best judgement is that in 2013 Iran will not get a bomb, and Iran will not be bombed. To be precise, I am prepared to bet $51 of my money against $49 of those who want to bet that by December 31, 2013, Iran will either have a nuclear weapon or have been the target of a major bombing attack.
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My Comment: My money is on neither happening .... and not for awhile.
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