China's Declaration Of An Air Defense Zone Over Disputed Waters Is A Strategic Mistake

Did China Make Strategic Error With Air Zone? -- Michael Mazza, Special to CNN

It’s difficult to know precisely what was behind China’s decision to institute an East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) at the weekend. Chinese claims to the contrary, it is clearly meant to up the pressure on Japan in the two countries’ dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, over which the ADIZ extends. Internal Chinese political dynamics may also be at work here; President Xi Jinping, for example, must be benefitting from taking a strong stance vis-à-vis Japan. But whatever the reason for the creation of the ADIZ at this time, Beijing may ultimately regret it – and not only because it increases the likelihood of a violent incident over the East China Sea.

First off, the move needlessly antagonizes Taiwan and South Korea. The fact is that it puts a wrinkle into recently stable cross-Strait relations, as Taiwan also claims sovereignty over the Senkakus (known as the Diaoyutai in Taiwan), and it now has an overlapping ADIZ with the mainland.

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My Comment: The Chinese will not back down and withdraw their claims on this air space .... to do so would mean a loss of face. But if China does not enforce their air zone .... they would also lose face by declaring a "red line" and then not enforcing it. Either way .... the Chinese will now have to act, and the options that are available to them will only guarantee a rise in tensions, diplomatic rebukes from South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and the U.S., and the real possibility of an "accidental" military exchange. Talk about a lose - lose proposition.