Armed Forces To Remain In Current Positions In Ukraine After Ceasefire Deal-Source -- Reuters
MINSK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The ceasefire deal in Ukraine includes a prisoner exchange, while armed forces on both sides will remain in their current positions, a source close to talks said on Friday.
The source also said the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) will monitor the implementation of the ceasefire.
Read more ....
My Comment: The next few days are going to be critical. For now .... I personally expect the truce to hold .... and I hope that the focus will now be on the political level and the need to find a meaningful political solution that will satisfy the deep divisions that now exists between eastern Ukraine and the rest of the country. But .... if Ukraine President Poroshenko does not bend on giving the regions a certain level of autonomy, and if Ukraine separatists are gung-ho for independence .... we will be back to a war situation very quickly.
7 comments:
I personally have little hope for that ceasefire to hold. If it even holds for a day I'll be surprised.
Then again both sides might take advantage of this and have a breather, before continuing hostilities.
I am split on this one D. PLowman. My heart says ceasefire .... my head is telling me that it will collapse soon.
Just to ask, in this VICE news video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpdCvuf-ZOk&feature=youtu.be There are seen many soviet flags and symbols, why is that? Are there any communists in Donetsk? Since i am discussing with a communist now and he wanted me to ask if you knew anything about it. Does the people in Donetsk miss the soviet times? And are the main seperatist movment in Donetsk communistisc or is it just nostalgia?
Rhaegar .... I have lived in both East and West .... and I can say this without any hesitation .... there are more Communists in North American and Western Europe than in Russia/Ukraine.
But having said that ... yes ... there are people in Russia/Ukraine who miss the old Soviet Union .... but they are a very small minority. In both Russia and Ukraine .... I would say that 90% and more do not want the return of communism.
Ok, here's what I think will happen. Ukraine and Separatists will sign a preliminary cessation of hostilities agreement, but not Nato or Russia. The US and Nato are probably pushing Poroshenko behind the scenes to sign (they're looking bad as the longer this goes on) and once that's done they'll jockey for credit on solving this set to. Putin will refer all approaches to him to the Separatists keeping his hands publicly clean. The Separatists will ask for Russian troops to stabilize and guarantee the situation, where upon Russian troops already there will magically appear with proper insignia. The Separatists will present their political demands (Putin's) and if not accepted by the Ukraine will call for elections. Here's what I think is to be watched for: Does Poroshenko stay in power, if not who replaces him. In that vein watch the Ukraine election that are coming up, if they're even held now.
I expect a coup or an attempted coup by Right Sector types in the near future.
I concur James.
There are four reasons why Poroshenko had to agree to today's ceasefire.
1) Heavy loses on the battlefield.
2) A buildup of even more Russian troops on the border .... in particular a few thousand special forces with artillery back-up.
3) NATO and the West declined in giving him a lifeline .... which he realized last night.
4) The Ukraine economy has completely collapsed, and with winter a few months away .... and energy sources from Russia cut off .... he had to find a way to address this growing crisis. He knows that if the economy does not improve .... he will expect another revolution on the streets this winter.
Groups like Right Sector are small in number .... but they wield a lot of influence. It was their push to ban Russian that resulted in the rebellion in the east, and their thuggish behavior only aggravated the crisis. I do not expect them to come to power ... but I do expect them to do well in next month's parliamentary elections. If they do very well .... exceeding even their own low expectations .... expect their supporters to move and take over Maiden Square in Kiev by December .... and a push to have their representatives back in positions of power at the beginning of next year.
If Poroshenko survives the winter .... he will stay as President until the end of his term .... not because he is a great leader, but being the best choice from a miserable bunch of Ukrainian leaders.
Post a Comment