Ukraine Is On The Brink Of Total Economic Collapse -- Walter Kurtz & Sober Look, Business Insider
While we see a great deal of media coverage of Ukraine-related geopolitical risks, there hasn't been sufficient discussion about the dire economic and fiscal conditions the nation is facing.
Writing about men in masks fighting in eastern Ukraine sells far more advertising than covering the nation's economic activity. However it's the economy, not the Russian army that has brought Ukraine close to the brink.
And just to be clear, some of Kiev's economic and fiscal problems were visible long before the spat with Russia.
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My Comment: An excellent summary on the dire state that the Ukraine economy is in. In the past .... much of this was covered up with Russian government aid in the form of subsidized energy prices/favorable trade status/loans and grants/etc. .... no more now. And with the West not even coming close to providing the aid that Ukraine needs .... this deep recession is going to quickly turn into a depression. My prediction .... absent a major influx of western/IMF aid I expect Ukraine to default on it's international debt obligations, a further collapse of the currency, an implosion of many parts of it's banking system, massive layoffs, and inflation hitting all products that are imported in. In short .... if economic conditions continue with the current trend, expect another revolution by winter.
3 comments:
Wow is the situration so bad... Do you think they have a chance to bounce back and stop the current trend?
2.
If they fail to fix the economics and there is another revolution, will the guys who take the power declare war against Russia or will they be the same polticians like Poroshenko? Since I know there are many nationalists who are standing strong polticaly in Ukraine, if one of these parties cease power, what will the west do? Will they ignore it or will they try to help Poroshenko back? Also if the nationalists get power will the people in the west accsept it?
Russia forgave ~ 75% of Cuban debt. The forgave some Syrian debt if I remember correctly . there is yet another country that they forgave debt also.
Does this affect the Russian economy or is this just baked into the budget of their "State Department"?
I believe in jubilee for people as well as countries. One should be careful when giving such a boon.
Of course it makes Russia popular for short while, but it is the sort of thing human kind has been doing forever. I believe the term is the "gift economy " and it is important for survival.
Crazy far out ideal.
What if Ukraine formed a political union with Poland?
The original Cossacks such to my limited understanding were peasants that did not want to labor for Polish nobility and so fled to the south east into what is now Ukraine.
So in away the Poles are not foreigners but more like distant cousins obviously Maybe no more distant than their Russian cousins.
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