Ukraine Ceasefire On The Verge Of Collapsing

The Guardian: Escalation of fighting in east Ukraine leaves ceasefire in tatters

Ukraine president Petro Poroshenko says there is a ‘colossal threat of the resumption of large-scale hostilities by Russian and terrorist forces’

Fighting in east Ukraine has this week reportedly left 21 dead and a fragile ceasefire in tatters, prompting fears of a resumption of full-blown conflict in the region.

Speaking in his annual address to parliament in Kiev on Thursday, Ukraine’s president, Petro Poroshenko, said there was now a “colossal threat of the resumption of large-scale hostilities by Russian and terrorist forces”. He claimed there were 9,000 Russian troops currently in the rebel-controlled areas of east Ukraine.

Update: All sides on edge as fighting intensifies in Ukraine -- Deutsche Welle

WNU Editor: The fighting has subsided .... Ukraine Fighting Subsides After Biggest Clashes in Three Months (Bloomberg) .... but both sides have been gearing up for a resumption of the war, and it will not take much for it to resume. I have always commented in this blog that absent any talks/negotiations/or compromise .... initiated by the Kiev government to its Russian dominated populations in the east .... we will have a situation that will all but guarantee a "sectarian" conflict between Ukrainians on one side, and Russian Ukrainians on the other. That time is now .... and the resentment that many Russian-Ukrainians now have towards Kiev is everywhere in the country. I am stunned on the resentment and anger that many of my Ukrainian-Russian friends/family members/ and associates now have towards Kiev. This was not the case only a few months ago .... but now it is universal. Conscription, discrimination, being fired from your government job because of your "Russian" background, abolishing Russian in the school system, arrests and harassment from the security forces .... even targeted killings of opponents to the Kiev government .... a Rubicon moment has arrived and passed .... and I now have zero confidence that this will be resolved peacefully. I thought that I would never see the Ukrainian government be successful in alienating even their own supporters in the Russian-Ukrainian community .... but they have .... and all in the past few months.

My prediction .... if full-scale war returns to eastern Ukraine in the coming weeks/months .... it will be a fight to the finish .... and there will be no interest in ceasefires or peace-talks. The only questions that will then remain are .... how much of Ukraine will be engulfed by war, how long will it last, and what impact will it be on the geopolitical relations between Russia and the West.