What Is Putin's Ideal Outcome in Syria?

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) shakes hands with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, October 20, 2015. REUTERS/Alexei Druzhinin/RIA Novosti/Kremlin

Josh Cohen, Reuters: What a Russian ‘win’ in Syria would look like

As Russia’s bombing campaign in Syria drags on, a number of commentators have suggested that President Vladimir Putin’s bold move could drag Russia into an Afghan-style quagmire. This negative outcome is far from guaranteed, however, and Putin holds more cards than his critics realize. Russia may well achieve its core military objectives in Syria — while the United States cannot.

Here’s how Putin might achieve his ideal outcome in Syria.

To start, a key strength of Russia’s Syrian military strategy is its simplicity. Today the Russian bombing campaign seeks only to stabilize the Syrian regime’s lines around the key corridor running north from Damascus through Homs and Hama. This approach provides breathing space for Assad, and allows his regime to implement its long-mooted Plan B — a rump state centered on the Alawite heartland along the Mediterranean coast. While it’s unclear whether the Assad regime can re-conquer large portions of Syria, the rebels are now on the defensive and the regime has stopped losing crucial pieces of territory.

WNU Editor: Josh Cohen's analysis would have been spot on 2 months ago .... but the geopolitical dynamics of this conflict are now changing to a degree that even Putin probably thought would never in his wildest dream happen. Case in point .... since the start of the Russian - Syrian campaign it has become clear to many outside observers that U.S. strategy is in utter disarray. This was further reinforced from yesterday's U.S. Senate testimony from US Sec. of Defense Carter and from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dumsford .... U.S. Defense Secretary: The U.S. War Against The Islamic State Will Intensify. Recommends U.S. Ground Forces To Be Deployed. In this confusion America's traditional allies are bailing out .... America Is Losing Its Allies In The Middle East, and who are they running to .... you guess it .... Russia. In a certain way Putin has already achieved his initial goals .... and then more.