Daily Mail: The number of ISIS fighters has fallen from more than 60,000 to 'between 12,000 and 15,000' since coalition air strikes began, US officials reveal
* ISIS' ranks had fallen from more than 60,000 to between 12,000 and 15,000
* The bombing campaign against ISIS in Iraq and Syria began two years ago
* It has taken out more fighters than currently remain on the battlefield
* US officials say that 50,000 ISIS militants have been killed since 2014
At least three quarter of ISIS fighters have been killed during the campaign of airstrikes against the terror group, US officials have said.
The US anti-ISIS envoy said ISIS' ranks had fallen from more than 60,000 to between 12,000 and 15,000 'battle ready' fighters.
The bombing campaign against ISIS, which began two years ago, has taken out more fighters in Iraq and Syria than currently remain on the battlefield.
Last week a US official said the American-led coalition had killed 50,000 ISIS militants since 2014.
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Update: US says 75% of ISIS fighters killed (CNN)
WNU editor: If this was the case .... the Islamic State would have fallen apart long ago. Since they have not .... I can only assume that these numbers that U.S. officials are publicising are .... to put it kindly .... overblown.
3 comments:
Fore everyone that are killed or otherwise eliminated, three to five or more arise to take their place. While Russian and Syrian forces seem to have captured Aleppo, they've lost another city and capturing Aleppo has proven very difficult. The Russian military is the best in the world or at least far superior to what the US and its allies can put forth. This is a VERY tough enemy.
On the one hand the number of ISIS militants that have been killed is probably WAY more than the 50,000 being published but on the other hand the number of ISIS fighters in the field is likely WAY more than the 12,000 to 15,000.
Fewer ISIS fighters killed along with fewer remaining in the filed and a higher percentage eliminated need to be reported. A number of powerful people have a vested interest in underestimating this threat.
There are a number of factors at work here. 1.) If the true nature of the threat were reported and it was learned just how ineffective we have been, a number of people could get fired. Careers would be lost. Pensions would be lost. Reputations would be ruined. 2.)If the true threat was known, this would mean we would need to mobilize the nation for war. This would mean the end of the welfare state. We can't have that. To many politicians depend upon this to get secure votes. As such, we must expand the welfare state at any cost!! 3.)Pointing out the true nature of the threat would very likely mean the complete collapse of the US economy as well as possibly the world economy as transportation and trade would grind to a halt.
While there are other factors at work, this covers a great deal. Hence the true nature of the threat cannot be known. When people have a great deal invested in a delusion, they often times fool even themselves. They may even believed their own ridiculous messaging by now.
Now enter Donald Trump someone who is from the outside a businessman who has done much to upset their carefully crafted deception of themselves and the populace. No wonder they can't stand him!!
So they sent 1/3 of their forces to take Palmyra? Who is defending their other lines. Ridiculous attempt by Obama to cover up his utter failure against the B team.
I'm not here to defend US official's statements, that's not my job, but about the approximate number of IS forces remained active in Syria and Iraq, it's worth to "measure" them. It was mentioned that they have about 12-15.000 fighter still active, so let's count them.
It was mentioned that IS used about 4.000 fighter in the offensive at Tadmur, just recently. However it was also mentioned, even by the RU Def. Ministry. that this number is just the sum of all fighters that were involved, in the whole operation (in any of the phase of the operation), not only those who actually made the land offensive on the city. - For those who are not know, the operations took place in a 50x20KM sized area, with a frontline that changed shape in the length of 150+ KM. When IS made their own military structure, just as it's logical, they structured themself based on areas (let's call them now as "fronts", or at least I do so). In this whole operation about 3-4 IS fronts could have been involved, and these fronts estimated manpower were about 5.000+ back in 2015, when the Russian intervention started, and this number does not include the Deir-er-zor or Raqqa fronts. In comparison Russian sources estimated 19-20.000 IS fighters being active in Syria at that time. - Based on their abilities of mobilisation, they could also get reinforces for the offensive from other areas, so this number, the 4.000 could be true. With removing those 4.000 fighter, we are at around 8-11.000 fighters, so let's search for the rest.
There were sources in the past week or so, that the number of IS fighters remained in the Mosul area is about 3-5.000, which again is a realistic number. Because at the moment there are not really a way for IS to reinforce or mass retreat from the city, let's count them bounded to that area. With removing this 3-5.000 fighters we are at between 4-8.000 fighters now for the rest of the areas.
Now let's spread those fighters in the remained areas, which is basically the Shinjar <-> Deir-er-Zor <-> Raqqa <-> Al-Bab line.
- The Sinjar area is a dead end, unless IS want to try to break the Mosul siege (which they know will not happen), so this frontline is just for winning time, and postpone the Iraqi advances, and forces here are based on this goal and it's actual state.
- Deir-er-Zor became a frozen frontline with no realistic goals for IS to advance any further, and their position is strict to the siege, so not much of forces remained here (when the Coalitional airstrikes hit "accidentally" SAA forces a few month ago, it was estimated of 700 fighter, spread all around the city).
- Raqqa is probably the concentration of their forces, it's not just the capital, but from here they could respond to any frontline. Also it was reported SDF now have about 9000 (?) fighters ready for an offensive, but the start of that is looks will wait for some more month. But for IS, it's better safe than late.
- Al-Bab was once of the strongest frontline of IS just a little bit more than a year ago, however with the loss of Manbij, the Turkish supported rebel advance from the North, and with SAA stood up around the Qweres airbase area, IS forces shrunken significantly in this front.
With this doing the math, the mentioned 12-15.000 number is realistic. It's not precise, because it's an estimation only, but it's show at least a view of how force ratios changed. I know I'm too optimistic, but hey, those are just numbers.
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