US intelligence assessments say Pyongyang still faces hurdles in creating a nuclear capable missile [Reuters]
Richard Sokolsky & Aaron David Miller, RCD/38 North: Regime Change in North Korea: Be Careful What You Wish For
Is the Trump administration seriously contemplating changing the regime in North Korea? Frankly, the signals are mixed. Ten days ago, at the Aspen Security Forum, CIA Director Mike Pompeo intimated as much, saying that he and other senior officials were ordered by President Trump to find a way to “separate the North Korean regime from its missiles and nuclear weapons.” And indeed, only a few days ago, Vice President Mike Pence said that “all options are on the table” in countering the North Korean threat. But only yesterday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson declared, “We do not seek a regime change, we do not seek a collapse of the regime, we do not seek an accelerated reunification of the peninsula, we do not seek an excuse to send our military north of the 38th Parallel.” Perhaps this ambivalence and confusion reflects a healthy debate on North Korea policy within the administration. We hope so.
Of course, North Korea is a dangerous regime. It starves, tortures, jails and kills scores of innocent citizens. Its growing nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities threaten US forces in the Asia Pacific region and our allies, and soon they will be able to hit targets in the United States.
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WNU Editor: The above 38 North analysis is probably already dated. The authors mention that South Korean leader Monn Jae-in is deeply interested in engaging the North Korean regime .... that may have been true a few weeks ago, but after North Korea's decision to ignore South Korea's outreach .... North Korea Snubs South Korean Outreach (VOA), the mood has changed in Seoul. The door will still be open .... Seoul to leave door open for silent Pyongyang on dialogue offer (Arirang), but the South Koreans are already signalling a new approach, and are being very open about it .... Is South Korea Planning A 'Surgical Strike' To Take Out Kim Jong-Un's Missile And Nuclear Facilities? (August 1, 2017). Bottom line .... the U.S., China, Japan, Russia, the international community .... everyone has a say and opinion on what needs to be done. but in the end it will be the Koreans themselves who will decide where this will go .... for better or worse.
5 comments:
I think people are coming to the realisation that diplomacy has failed and there's no way out but to either a) accept a nuclear armed country that has threatened the nuclear annihilation of the US more times than I can count, or b) military action.
Option a is not viable to any politician or law maker. .it would not only put the US at grave risk, but also their jobs. Even if North Korea were to only bluster when they produce these videos of Washington or new York city engulfed in nuclear flames, but no elected official (rightfully so in this case) can be seen to tolerate this threat.
I'm confident there will be war and quite soon. The Atlantic had a great article today pointing out the -necessity- of a surprise strike, due to the risk of North Korea being able to launch a nuclear missile. The article also points out the unreliability of counter measures and that intelligence services believe already by next year the north Koreans will have -reliable-missiles that can strike anywhere in the US. This has "we're done talking" written all over it.
Now. ..Trump is not a gracious politician (trying to be polite here)..but he understands the principle of lost opportunity costs and passing on the buck as it has been done by Bush II and Obama ("strategic patience").
There was a report that the US could engage as early as this fall. I would not be surprised if actions are happening tonight and I read them tomorrow..
I would also not be surprised if China is playing a seriously dangerous game here and in an unexpected move moved their soldiers across the border (by invitation of North Korea under the false pretext of voluntary inspections ..all to buy the North Korean regime more time and to become more deadly and costly to the US).
A key element here are the mobile launch platforms as I pointed out earlier. .they make it hard for the US ops teams to get them all reliably. ..very hard. ..and these were supplied by China. This, I believe, is the smoking gun that historians/Hollywood will talk about ..and of course the underground systems....
Thanks, China. No sympathies here for what you did. All but guaranteed the necessity of war...and likely this year. Probably in the next 2-8 weeks
I thing the most worst thing is that what if Kim Jong-un get drunk one day and command a nuke strike over other nations !
While it sounds crazy.
It's a possibility. ..one he realises he likely won't see 2018, there's no telling what he's capable of doing. And who would stop him of his own people? They'd be executed by dogs or machine guns... it's not something the World has seen yet. ...someone who has his own family and girl friend murdered
...that guy has nuclear weapons now..it's not something we can really grasp. .but yeah. .that's what strategic patience brought us..the lack of good answers back then brought even worse questions for today
China is not going to move troops across the border without our knowing about it
"Of course, North Korea is a dangerous regime. It starves, tortures, jails and kills scores of innocent citizens."
At least THEY are only doing that to their own people with a very few exceptions.
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