An unarmed Trident II D5 missile launches from the Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine USS Nebraska (SSBN-739) off the coast of California in 2008. US Navy Photo
USNI News: Official: U.S. Far Behind China, Russia in Modernizing Nuclear Arsenal
WASHINGTON, D.C. – China and Russia had their money on winning asymmetric advantages in conventional and nuclear forces in the last decade, and now the United States is playing catch-up in modernizing its sea, air and land nuclear forces, the Pentagon’s top policy official said Wednesday.
David Trachtenberg, the Pentagon’s deputy undersecretary for policy, said the United States put off modernizing the three legs of its nuclear deterrent for almost 20 years, he told USNI News following a presentation at the Brookings Institution.
“In the 2000s, we skipped a generation” in modernizing the triad – ballistic missile submarines, bombers and ballistic missiles. He added that the United Kingdom and France, both nuclear powers and NATO allies, reduced their weapons stockpiles while continuing to modernize their nuclear forces during that same time. The United Kingdom has sea-based ballistic missile submarines; France has both submarines and aircraft capable of delivery of nuclear weapons.
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WNU Editor: I am skeptical that the U.S. is behind China and Russia when it comes to nuclear weapons, but skepticism aside, the U.S. is definitely boosting their budget to modernize its nuclear weapons .... Here’s how many billions the US will spend on nuclear weapons over the next decade (Defense News).
Well, I think there might be a couple reason the US is behind:
ReplyDeleteOverreach and comparative purchasing power
1. Overreach: The US has bases in more than 100 locations around the world and is actively engaged in small-mid scale conflicts in at least a dozen places. Russia has less than half of bases and less than half of conflict zones. China has less than 1/20th of bases around the world and is engaged only in 1-2 conflict zones
2. Comparative purchasing power: from personnel to equipment and operating costs, everything is multiple times more expensive in the US. An average US soldier makes about 4 times as much as an average Russian soldier, and about 7 times more than a Chinese soldier. Equipment is on average 1-3 times more expensive than Russian equipment, and 2-5 times more expensive than Chinese equipment.
Translation: For the same BANG we spend more BUCKS. We need this out of control, bloated budget to keep up. And we barely do keep up in some areas.
@WNU: HAHAHA there's a "date Chinese women" ad on your blog now. I know it's based in rotation and marketing analytics and out of your control, but I'm sure half of them are spies eager to date an American defence contractor. If your blog is not planning to be banned, try rulling out the dating category for your Ads!
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ReplyDeleteAnon 11:27AM,
Couldn't agree more.
I'm also a supporter of some kind of universal service for a year and a half. A no Cadillac pay scale until the 18 months is up. Some assistance with education, home buying.....And a SHARP knife for fat cutting at contractors.
Actually I figured out the US lags behind Russia and China in nuclear weapons modernization over 15 years ago. I'm pleased to see that this Pentagon official has finally caught on. Actually I think reality has become so glaring that this man can no longer blithely ignore it. Given the known tendencies of US officials to underestimate the threats to America, underestimate the the threats posed by adversaries and potential aeversaries, and to overestimate our capabilities I'm very, very skeptical of any report that says America does not lag behind Russia and China in nuclear arsenal modernization.
ReplyDeleteCandidate Trump actually understood this when he rightly questioned whether or not our nuclear arsenal would work if needed. At one point, after assuming office he had stated that the first thing he did upon assuming office was to upgrade the nuclear arsenal. During his State of the Union Address he stated,to paraphrase, that America is unequivocally the strongest military power on earth. As this is not known and there is much evidence available that would suggest such an assumption is questionable at best, the statement seems like, on the surface, like a pompous and ridiculous statement that had no business being in such a serious speech. That is unless the nuclear arsenal really has been upgraded and such a statement really now can be supported as definitive.
It is refreshing that top officials are finally able to admit things such as the nuclear arsenal needs upgrading or might need upgrading. Nevertheless I am and remain skeptical of any report that suggests we have not fallen behind Russia and China in modernization of our nuclear arsenal.
Anon (11:27),
ReplyDeleteSpot on!! There's really very little that can be added.
1.) Obviously we've over reached and are spread to thin. Our foreign policy needs to be reevaluated. Unfortunately suggesting this tends to lead to two basic problems. A.)The person who questions this has their patriotism questioned and ends up being accused of being a "Russian troll" or some other foreign agent. B.)The debate ends up being hijacked by hysterical anti-Americanism. As far as the over reach problem is concerned, the progress made with regards to North Korea and the concerted efforts to end our involvements in Syria and Afghanistan are steps in the right direction IMHO.
2.)Obviously we can't cut the pay to our military personnel nor should we even if we could!! There may be something we can do as far as equipment costs. Perhaps think "Timex Watches" vs "Rolex Watches." Aircraft carriers and F-35s are very expensive, will suffer heavy losses in a war with a major world power, and are very difficult to quickly replace. INHO military equipment like the A-10 are much better investments.
I don't materially disagree with your last two statements, however, I might tweak it to say "for less bang we spend more bucks. As I've said, the only way to actually "know" the outcome of a war is to actually fight it. IMHO overall excellent analysis!!
"Actually I figured out the US lags behind Russia and China in nuclear weapons modernization over 15 years ago. "
ReplyDeleteYes, because that is actually a course in the accounting major.
Anon (9:18),
ReplyDeleteRussia and China have heavily invested in upgrading their nuclear arsenals for 20+ years while the US neglected such uogrades to the point that US military personnel didn't want to work in the nuclear weapons programs because having the "nuclear stink" on them hindered promotability. The issue had become so severe that candidate Trump rightly questioned whether our nuclear arsenal would even work if we needed it. Now top Pentagon officials are finally catching on. Perhaps this is a combination of Trump's leadership and reality becoming so glaring that it has become impossible to ignore.
Given the situation, the conclusion I reached 15 years ago seems to be a very reasonable one. I'm pleased that it seems like President Trump is making addressing this a priority.
Sad to say but all these comments are based on....? can you supply actual facts, statistics, statements from those involved who go public?
ReplyDeleteWell, we have to do what is necessarily, but, even being a little bit late, first will shall catch up and second,we are still dangerous with what we have .
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