If left unchecked, the virus could have killed 40 million people and infected around seven billion people. Pictured: EMTs lift a coronavirus patient into an ambulance in New York City, March 26
Daily Mail: If the much of the world hadn't gone on lockdown to slow the spread of coronavirus, the disease might have killed 40 million and sickened BILLIONS, study finds
* Researchers at Imperial College London looked at a model of what would have happened if no countries took measures against the coronavirus
* If left unchecked, the virus could have killed 40 million people and infected around seven billion people
* But certain actions such as social distancing can cut the death toll by at least 95 percent, saving 38.7 million lives
* In the US, a scenario in which no measures were put in place could have led to 2.18 million deaths, and in the UK to 490,000 deaths
If no measures had been taken to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus, 40 million people could have died, a new UK study finds.
Researchers at Imperial College London made the findings based on analysis which estimated the potential scale of the pandemic across the world.
But with mitigation strategies such as protecting the elderly and social distancing, the death toll could by anywhere from 50 percent to 95 percent, saving 38 million people.
In the model, the team found that, if left unchecked, around seven billion people could have been infected - about 90 percent of the global population.
Worldwide 500,000 people so far have been been infected and more than 23,000 people have died.
Read more ....
Update: UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts (New Scientist)
WNU Editor: This is disturbing. The researchers at the Imperial College of London were the first to warn that a disaster was coming, and many political leaders, governments, and the media listened to them and publicized their conclusions. And now they are admitting that their computer models were wrong, and are justifying this mistake and the panic that they caused by saying that the situation on the ground has changed. For more on this remarkable change in predictions from the Imperial College of London go here. There are currently 14,735 cases in the U.K., and 761 deaths.
Predicting the deaths of 500,000 people at the outset whiffs a lot like political opportunism.
ReplyDeleteRush Limbaugh was right.
ReplyDeleteDo you know what the — I think the survival rate is 98%. Ninety-eight percent of people get the coronavirus survive. It’s a respiratory system virus.
“Early results from deCode Genetics indicate that a low proportion of the general population has contracted the virus and that about half of those who tested positive are non-symptomatic,”
“The other half displays very moderate cold-like symptoms.”
- Iceland’s chief epidemiologist Thorolfur Guðnason.
Actually, to quote 14,735 cases in the UK is factually incorrect. Only 100k have been tested in total.
ReplyDeleteIt is only the cases confirmed where people have gone to the hospital because their condition is more than mild. This is the only place to be tested in the UK.
As a resident of the UK, we have zero mass testing. At the onset of the epidemic, you called 111, someone came out in hazmat to test you.
Once the confirmed cases reached around 500+ the government stopped this approach and moved only to those that came to a hospital with deteriorated symptoms.
The estimates vary between 70000 and 400000 infected, but we will never really know until they move forward with mass distribution of the antibodies test, so that we can see who has had it.
Overhyped Coronavirus Weaponized Against Trump
ReplyDeleteAccording to a report from the New York Times, the administration had been set to announce on Wednesday a joint venture between Ventec Life Systems and General Motors that would produce as many as 80,000 of the desperately needed pieces of equipment, when the government abruptly decided to call it off because the Federal Emergency Management Agency needed more time to decide if the $1 billion-plus price tag was worth it. Per the Times: “Some government officials expressed concern about the possibility of ordering too many ventilators, leaving them with an expensive surplus.” The flip side, of course, would be a scenario in which Americans needlessly die because of a shortage of ventilators, a situation we appear to be dangerously approaching, if we’re not there already. As New York’s Jonathan Chait writes, “It sounds insane that the Trump administration would be concerned that it would be left with a supply of excess machines when, at the moment, governors are pleading with them to send as many machines, as quickly as possible, before bodies begin piling up in American cities.” And yet the Trump administration apparently is insane, and that’s exactly what’s happening.
ReplyDeleteDo the math…
ReplyDeleteSo, if 95% of all coronavirus cases recover, that means that 5% of all cases will die.
Now… let's put this in real world terms. What is 5% of a million people.
0.05 × 1,000,000 people = 50,000 people
So if a million people are infected with the coronavirus that means 50 thousand will die if the recovery rate is 95%.
The population of United States, as of 2018, was estimated to be 327 million people according to the United States Census Bureau.
If the recovery rate is 95% and only one quarter of all individuals in the United States are eventually infected, the resulting death toll would be:
(327,000,000 people / 4) × 0.05 = 4,087,500
That's why, it's a big deal. Over 4 million people would die before the virus had run its course. Now remember, that's if only a quarter of the population of the U.S. was infected
"Actually, to quote 14,735 cases in the UK is factually incorrect."
ReplyDeleteWith statistics you can infer from a small sample to the larger population.
There is no doomsday form this virus. The only doomsday will be brought by Leftist politicians. They have a very good track record in that regard. Stirling in fact.
"The estimates vary between 70000 and 400000 infected, but we will never really know "
The sky is falling; the sky is falling; the sky is falling take cover!
Pro tip: If the sky is falling, you do not need to take cover, because you will asphyxiate anyway. You'll just die tired.
Iceland has tested the largest percentage of a national population of any country. The results are reassuring. Corona does not really kill all that many.
If Corona kills, you it probably means that almost any virus could have come along and have killed you. It means you were in bad health and a rhino, influenza, or corona virus tickled you with a feather.
https://futurism.com/neoscope/half-coronavirus-carriers-no-symptoms
My post hardly smacked of the sky is falling, it was to infer that the death toll/mortality rate is far lower. However, as we are not mass testing, it seems artificially high.
DeleteThat in itself causes panic when the truth is far less deadly.
BTW, thanks for your toxic response.
At 4:37 Papides posted a news article nearly in toto. He is trying to take the crown of the most boring posts from B Poster and succeeding.
ReplyDeleteThat is some accomplishment.
ReplyDeleteSTUDY: YES, HALF OF CORONAVIRUS CARRIERS SHOW NO SYMPTOMS
“Early results from deCode Genetics indicate that a low proportion of the general population has contracted the virus and that about half of those who tested positive are non-symptomatic,”
“The other half displays very moderate cold-like symptoms.”
- Iceland’s chief epidemiologist Thorolfur Guðnason.
Can someone take Squirrel aside, sit her down, and patiently explain to her what 1/2 means? Preferably, someone with a degree in childhood education from a normal school.
And maybe a 4 or 5 year old niece or a nephew could show her, where Iceland is on a globe.
"Now remember, that's if only a quarter of the population of the U.S. was infected"
ReplyDeleteYour typical adult catches a corona virus 3 times in 4 years or every other year.
Adults get a 'cold' virus 4 to 6 times a years.
10% to 15% of 'cold' viruses are corona viruses. The majority are rhino viruses.
Do the math.
Now remember, that ...
Also remember what Nietzsche said.
if a parent dies from something, a flu, a virus, we care...flu? there are shots for that...there is none thus far for this virus.
ReplyDeleteUnited States 102,605 ↑ 14,955 (17.06%) 1,546 ↑ 248 (19.10%) 2,297 1,674
the 1546 are DEAD thus far and we are just getting started. so screw you and your dismissive comment...as the number of dead goes up, just hope it is not someone you care for
A longtime Republican fundraiser sent an email to his clients on Thursday abruptly announcing that he would no longer be working for them.
ReplyDeleteThe reason: He saw an opportunity to capitalize on the coronavirus response.
“Over the last 14 days I have built another business outside politics and will be focusing my full attention there,” he wrote in the email, which was obtained by POLITICO.
The fundraiser, Mike Gula, didn’t specify his new line of work in the email. But in an interview, he said he’d started a new company selling medical equipment that’s been in short supply during the coronavirus pandemic.
The company, Blue Flame Medical LLC, was formed Monday in Delaware, according to state records. Its website says it sells coronavirus testing kits, N95 respirator masks, “a wide selection” of personal protective equipment and other “hard to find medical supplies to beat the outbreak.”
Asked how he’d managed to procure such equipment when there are shortages in hospitals across the country, Gula said, “I have relationships with a lot of people.”
Gula started Blue Flame with John Thomas, a consultant who until recently worked as chief strategist for Don Sedgwick, a Republican who ran against Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) but lost in the primary earlier this month. Gula’s firm raised money for Sedgwick, according to campaign finance records.
The abrupt move to shutter Gula’s firm has set the Republican operative world ablaze, with many in the business wondering about Gula’s intentions and how he was able to move so swiftly.
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) doesn’t seem to have a sense of urgency about implementing a similar order in her state.
ReplyDelete“Y’all, we are not Louisiana, we are not New York State, we are not California,” she said on Thursday, according to the Montgomery Advertiser. “Right now is not the time to order people to shelter in place.”
In terms of raw case totals, that’s true. Data from Johns Hopkins University compiled through Thursday show that Alabama’s case total is in the hundreds, compared to thousands of cases in Louisiana and California and tens of thousands in New York.
Amazing how the people bellyaching a Dim governors.
ReplyDeleteyou have to wonder how much is real and how much is political point scoring.
Your post was toxic.
ReplyDelete"That's why, it's a big deal. Over 4 million people would die before the virus had run its course. Now remember, that's if only a quarter of the population of the U.S. was infected"
I blame dumbo-crats and Barfsack Ocrumbo.... who is still a secret Muslim who stole my bible.
ReplyDelete