Taiwanese F-16 fighter jet in foreground flies on the flank of a Chinese H-6 bomber on Feb. 10: Chinese acts of military intimidation will have to seem bigger and more dangerous. © Taiwan Ministry of National Defense/AP
Minxin Pei, Nikkei Asian Review: China and the US risk accidental war over Taiwan
Need for both sides to show resolve could lead to a conflict nobody really wants
When 18 Chinese warplanes breached Taiwan's air defense identification zone last month, it was a further sign of rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
The latest in a series of large-scale military exercises aimed at intimidating Taiwan, official Chinese media warned the self-governing island's leaders -- and the U.S., which has stepped up its military and diplomatic support for Taipei -- of dire consequences if unspecified Chinese red lines are crossed.
All of which has raised fears that China is preparing to launch a military assault on Taiwan.
While no one should dismiss Chinese military threats and activities as mere posturing, a careful examination of Beijing's strategic calculations brings a clearer understanding of the real dynamics driving its intentions toward Taiwan.
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WNU Editor: Minxin Pei believes China does not favor using the military option to assert its claims over Taiwan. That this is just a bluff on the part of China to warn Taiwan and the US to keep their military buildup and relations to a minimum. I disagree. I have been a witness to Chinese threats against Taiwan for the past 35 years. In the past it was all talk with the little to show on the ground that China was prepared to invade Taiwan. No more now. The military assets are in place. The political/military indoctrination has shifted in the past few years that now openly advocates the seizure of Taiwan. President Xi himself has said on more than one occasion that the country must be prepared to go to war. These are unprecedented measures taken by a country that is not hiding its intentions or goals. Minxin Pei talks about how China and the US risk accidental war over Taiwan. Sorry Minxin Pei .... accidental wars do not happen. Wars happen because leaders want it. If there is a war between the US and China over Taiwan, it is because China decided to start it.
5 comments:
Yo Ed.,where are the million troops training in a tropical climate? Where are the landing craft .You are talking about invading an island the size of Maryland and Delaware combined covered with mountains and jungles. Look at a map the place is a nightmare for an army commander,I could go on but you the picture or do you?!
Andrew, you are thinking 1950s warfare
Taipei can be taken within 2 weeks. Then the politicians either go on camera to support China or will be shot. All bank assets of population will be rendered inoperable 24hrs in, people are more dependent on 24hr delivery than ever before. Especially in highly concentrated areas like Taiwan. Food would last a week tops. Furthermore Taiwan is heavily dependent on oil import, their reserves last 2 weeks max . They have 2 ports for this, both are obvious targets. After that their tanks etc won't even start anymore
The time to take Taiwan is now. China knows that the world wants revenge for the bio attack and Taiwan is crucial for defence line
Further, Chinese popularity could not do any further, they think. They think the time is now or never. I concur with WNU if war breaks out it is because of China, but not just because of the CCP. The population wants to take Taiwan. They truly want to also take many more countries afterwards. The Chinese population truly believes in ruling the world and that we white and black and Hispanic people are second class citizens in their empire soon
The Chinese are so racist, they sterilize their own citizens for not being Chinese enough. It's scary. What's more scary is that many media operations ignore the mass murder send ethnic cleansing over there. Just before Nazi Germany invaded Poland, people in the media did the same. Ignored the hypermilitarisation and hyper- nationalism. It's happening again. This time 1.5bn people strong, programmed she coerced into extremism.
I don't think war can be avoided and I know China quite well.
"Taipei can be taken within 2 weeks. Then the politicians either go on camera to support China or will be shot. All bank assets of population will be rendered inoperable 24hrs in, people are more dependent on 24hr delivery than ever before. Especially in highly concentrated areas like Taiwan. Food would last a week tops. Furthermore Taiwan is heavily dependent on oil import, their reserves last 2 weeks max . They have 2 ports for this, both are obvious targets. After that their tanks etc won't even start anymore"
Straights of Malacca. No more oil for mainland.
Unfortunately Congress Critters sanctioned Russia, because it felt good. They put as much thought and reasoning into sanctions as they do about tax rates which is to say about as much as can fit in a sound bite (i.e. none).
So we sanction Russia and Russia turned around and dropped American pork imports and grew their industry. Now Russian can start supplying China some pork.
The same CONGRESSIONAL ASSHOLES THAT SANCTIONED RUSSIA HAVE THEIR KIDS get around the sanctions. Also known as S.O.P.
Hello Hunter Biden and others.
So maybe the Chinese will suffer form food not being imported by sea or maybe Russia will pick up the slack.
Agree, WNU. I don't feel Taiwan will invade china first.
Can China invade, sure, but I think it will be very very expensive in lives and equipment, and as much as they have been building up and making a professional armed force, they haven't really fought a war in many decades....first contact with reality and not just rigged training exercises are very costly learning experiences.
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