Mood In Kyiv Grows More Ominous As Russian Convoy Draws Closer

 

CNN: US officials fear the worst is yet to come for Kyiv 

(CNN)Ukrainian forces have so far managed to stave off Russian ground forces massed less than 20 miles north of the embattled capital Kyiv -- but though they've defied US intelligence predictions that the city would likely fall within one to four days of a full-scale Russian assault, US officials warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin could imminently increase the intensity of the attack. 

Stiffer than expected Ukrainian resistance and Russia's own logistical missteps have bogged down Russia's advance, US and western officials say, sparking a fragile optimism. 

The US has also continued sharing downgraded intelligence with the Ukrainians, including about Russian military moves, in an attempt to help Ukraine on the battlefield, two of the sources told CNN. 

But intelligence and defense officials closely tracking the Russian campaign say that Putin still holds a number of moves in reserve that could devastate the Ukrainian resistance.  

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Update #1: Vast Russian military convoy may be harbinger of a siege of Kyiv (The Guardian)  

Update #2: 40-mile-long Russian convoy including tanks and artillery advances on Kyiv (War Is Boring)   

Update #3: Russian convoy stretching 40 MILES reaches the outskirts of Ukrainian capital: US officials warn of ugly urban warfare in Kyiv and predict a second wave of troops will overwhelm resistance in the country as missile targets government building in Kharkiv (Daily Mail)

WNU Editor: These US officials see the writing on the wall. 

U.S. intelligence is also changing their assessments. According to CNN a senior US defense official said that it is their assessment that Russia has now committed nearly 75% of its military power that it had arrayed around Ukraine ahead of the invasion. The rest of the Russian military are still in their bases, and it looks like they will not be sent to join the battles that are raging on in Ukraine.

Russia has also called up hundreds of thousands of reservists. That is not new. What is new is that I am reading on Russian social media posts from families who have loved ones in the reserves that their family members are going to be deployed in the coming weeks to Ukraine to keep order. They are talking about numbers from 200,000 to 300,000 reserve soldiers. 

I do not know if this accurate. Social media is not to be trusted. And the Kremlin is not going to confirm anything (and even if they did I would still be skeptical). But my gut is telling me that this it looks like the the leadership in Russia are positioning themselves for a long term occupation of Ukraine, and they expect resistance to last for a long time.