Are We Prepared For A Long War?

Ukrainians fleeing the fighting crowd under a destroyed bridge as they try to cross the Irpin River in the outskirts of Kyiv. March 2022

Mark Leonard, Council on Foreign Relations: Preparing for the Long War  

Amid the euphoria following recent Ukrainian battlefield victories, some commentators are cautiously optimistic that Ukraine could win the war by the spring. But Vladimir Putin’s latest moves suggest that Russia is settling in for a long war of attrition that will test European resolve. 

A nuclear spectre is haunting Europe once again. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a mobilisation of some 300,000 reservists and announced that he will use “all available means” to defend Russia, adding, “This is not a bluff.” As one senior European policymaker noted to me, such nuclear brinkmanship is an invitation to dust off old cold war tomes such as Herman Kahn’s ‘On Thermonuclear War’. 

To be sure, amid the euphoria following recent Ukrainian battlefield victories, some commentators are cautiously optimistic that Ukraine could win the war by the spring. But Putin’s latest moves suggest that Russia is settling in for a long war of attrition. In addition to issuing more strident threats, he has also reduced two significant asymmetries that have characterised the conflict so far. The first is the gap between Russia’s “special operation” and Ukraine’s whole-of-society response to it. Deploying 300,000 more soldiers may not be enough to overwhelm Kyiv or occupy Ukraine, but it will keep Russia in the game.  

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WNU Editor: The above commentator is asking an important question. Are we prepared and/or preparing for a long war? 

My answer is no. 

And if you are a regular consumer of the news. The topic of a long war is certainly not being discussed. 

I gave a presentation this past weekend to a business group on what do I expect to see from the spring of 2023 to the spring of 2024 if the war continues. 

My picture and analysis was grim. 

For one. Europe will no longer get reliable and cheap natural gas and other energy products from Russia. That trade is dead. 

Since Europe's manufacturing base is dependent on receiving cheap Russian energy to be competitive on global markets, we are going to see a de-industrialization of Europe that will severely damage the Euro and the continent's economic base. I shudder when I contemplate the scale and scope of the unrest that will follow when the realities of inflation, unemployment, and poverty starts to hit the average person. 

In fact .... we are already seeing these massive protests happening now .... Czechs protest handling of energy crisis, membership of EU and NATO (Reuters). 

And then there is the forever financial/debt/and monetary crisis that is always in the background. 

This has always been a Herculean exercise by all governments in keeping this House of Cards from collapsing amongst itself. How can this manipulation continue as the war saps the focus and resources of all the governments that are involved? 

The British got a taste of it last week when they found themselves essentially at the edge of a credit and currency collapse. And it is not stopping there. Even long established banks are facing doubts that they can survive .... As Credit Suisse's Credit Default Swaps Spike To Near 2008 Levels, Rumors Of Lehman-Like Collapse Floated, Bank Steps In To Allay Concerns (Benzinga). 

Western leaders like French President Macron have been saying since the summer that Europe must prepare themselves to have a war economy. That this is going to be a long war, and government policies and actions should reflect that. Sadly, this has not happened. 

I know in Russia they are now in a wartime economy, with the expectation that this is going to last for a very long time. 

The West may yearn for regime change in Moscow. But what we are probably going to see are regime changes in European governments. That the Italian election last week was not an outlier, but a trend that will impact all governments facing elections in the coming 1 to 2 years. The U.S. included.