Is Russia About To Annex Abkhazia?

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) meets Abkhazian President Raul Khajimba on November 24, 2014.(RIA Novosti / Mikhail Mettsel)

Pact Tightens Russian Ties With Abkhazia -- New York Times

MOSCOW — President Vladimir V. Putin signed a treaty on Monday to expand Russia’s authority over Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia, effectively giving the Kremlin a dominant role in military and economic policy and making it easier for residents of Abkhazia to obtain Russian citizenship.

The accord comes at a time of deep apprehension in the West over Russia’s expansionist aspirations because of its annexation of Crimea and its support of the violent separatist uprising in eastern Ukraine. The treaty was angrily denounced by Georgia as illegal and a step toward “de facto annexation.”

Georgia, like Ukraine, has been moving toward closer political and economic ties with the European Union. Officials in Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, said the new accord with Abkhazia was yet another attempt by Russia to thwart the westward ambitions of a former Soviet republic while tightening the Kremlin’s influence.

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More News On Today's Russia - Abkhazia Defense Pact

Collective defense partnership: Russia, Abkhazia sign alliance -- RT
Deal gives Russia greater control over Abkhazia, breakaway Georgian region on Black Sea -- AP
Georgia angered by Russia-Abkhazia military agreement -- The Guardian
Putin sparks Georgia fury with 'annexation' deal in Abkhazia -- 7 News/AFP
Russia step closer to 'annexing' Abkhazia -- Al Jazeera
NATO, EU Criticize Accord Between Russia and Breakaway Abkhazia Region -- Moscow Times
West Rejects Treaty Between Russia, Abkhazia -- Radio Free Europe
Is Abkhazia Next? Russia's Deal with Georgia's Breakaway Region Raises Annexation Fears -- IBTimes

Abkhaz President Survives Assassination Attempt

Abkhaz President Survives 5th Assassination Attempt -- RIA Novosti

The attack occurred on Wednesday morning near the town of Gudauta when Ankvab was going to work in the capital of the region, Sukhumi, Abkhaz Chief of State Security Services Anri Bogua said.

A remote controlled mine blew up as the presidential cortege was making its way to the city, hitting an escort vehicle. One car was completely burnt out and a deep crater was formed at the site of the explosion. The tabloid website LifeNews reported that bodyguards shielded the president from gunshots that followed the explosion. One of the guards was killed and another was seriously injured.

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More News On The Assassination Attempt Against The Abkhaz President

Abkhazia Georgia leader Ankvab escapes deadly ambush -- BBC
President of Georgia’s breakaway province of Abkhazia survives assassination attempt -- Washington Post/AP
Abkhaz Leader Survives Yet Another Assassination Attempt -- Radio Free Europe
Attack on Abkhazia leader kills bodyguard -- AFP
President of Abkhazia Survives Assassination Attempt -- New York Times
Attempt on life of Abkhazian president -- RT
Abkhaz leader survives assassination attempt -- Al Jazeera
Alexander Ankvab, president of Abkhazia, survives attack on convoy -- Global Post

Self-Ruled Region Remains Wary of Russian Backers

From The New York Times:

MOSCOW — Sergei Bagapsh wants to make it perfectly clear: Abkhazia is not now, and will not become, part of the Russian Federation.

Almost five years after being elected president of the breakaway Georgian territory, Mr. Bagapsh owes an enormous debt to Russia, his northern neighbor. Russia went to war last August to support Abkhazia’s and South Ossetia’s claims to independence from Georgia, and the Kremlin recognized both territories as sovereign nations, fulfilling the wish that has driven separatists through two decades of war and privation. No other country, he said, has shown “any concern for the Abkhaz people.”

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My Comment: Abkhazia is also a big test for Russia. There are numerous territories in the former Soviet Union who look at Russia as a protector of their cultural and political needs. Failure in Abkhazia will be a signal to them and to the governments that they are worried about that Russia cannot be a reliable ally when the times start to get rough.

As for Abkhazia itself .... for the moment they are a priority for Russia. They will have security and aid to rebuild from years of conflict. The crucial question is .... will they ever leave? .... and if they leave, will Georgia try to take over Abkhazia again?

Georgian Province In Uneasy Embrace Of Moscow

(Image from the BBC)

From AP:

SUKHUMI, Abkhazia (AP) — Russia's footprint is everywhere in this breakaway Georgian province, from billboards featuring its president, Dmitry Medvedev, to its joint military exercises with the Abkhaz navy.

"Peace! Freedom! Independence!" proclaims a roadside billboard featuring Medvedev and Abkhaz President Sergei Bagapsh. Medvedev, although short, appears nearly twice as big as Bagapsh.

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My Comment: I doubt very much that Abkhazia has any real independence. As long as the money flows into the province, there will be peace with the exception of the Georgian community.

The War In The Caucasus Is Now Spreading

The breakaway province of Abkhazia has started a military offensive against
the Georgian forces while the South Ossetia conflict is still going on.

Abkhazia Moves To Flush Out Georgian Troops -- AP

SUKHUMI, Georgia (AP) — Separatist forces in Georgia's breakaway province of Abkhazia launched air and artillery strikes to drive Georgian troops from their bridgehead in the region, officials said.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said later Saturday that Georgian forces rebuffed the Abkhazian attacks. "Our men there are in high spirits," he said.

The Abkhazian move was prompted by Georgia's military action to regain control over another breakaway province, South Ossetia, which began Friday, said Sergei Shamba, foreign minister in Abkhazia's separatist government.

He said that Abkhazia had to act because it has a friendship treaty with South Ossetia.

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More News On Abkhazia And Georgia

Abkhaz troops moved closer to Georgian forces -- Reuters
Abkhazian Forces Push out Georgian Troops -- Sofia News Agency
Georgia TV: New Russian Air Raid On Abkhazia -- NASDAQ
Abkhazia launches operation to force Georgian troops out -- Thaindian
Abkhazia Moves to Oust Georgia Troops -- Alalam
Abkhazia violence raises fears of “second front” -- Euronews
U.S. concerned over Caucasus, as Abkhazs move against Georgia -- Hot News Turkey
Georgian leader says attacks in Abkhazia repelled -- Turkish Press
Georgia President: Attacks In Government-Held Areas Of Abkhazia Repelled -- NASDAQ
At UN, Georgia Claims Russia Spreads Conflict to Abkhazia, Renouncing Force Rejected -- Inner City Press
Russia plans to move naval ships toward Abkhazia: US -- Turkish Press
Georgian President: Abkhazia conduct operation for pushing out Georgian forces in Kodori defile -- IFocus

My Commentary: A second front is now open in the Georgian/Russian War. Unlike South Ossetia, the region of Abkhazia is significantly bigger, with a large population base of which more than 80% is non-Georgian.

Georgia is in a lose-lose situation everywhere. It's only hope is to now leave both South Ossetia and Abkhazia and to sue for peace.

They have lost this war.

Abkhazia Threatens Georgia with Second Front

From Der Spiegel:

Georgia's march into South Ossetia has prompted the Abkhazia to begin preparing for war as well. Abkhazian Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba told SPIEGEL ONLINE that his province might open up a second front.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: How is Abkhazia reacting to the events in South Ossetia?

Shamba: We have a deal with South Ossetia on how we will deal with crisis situations. And we are now planning on implementing it. Our security council met all night and ordered our army to deploy this morning to the Georgian border.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Will a second front now be opened in Abkhazia?

Shamba: That depends on how the situation in South Ossetia develops. We understand very well that we Abkhazians are next in line after South Ossetia. If the situation doesn't stabilize again, then we will have to open a second front.

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My Comment: By invading South Ossetia Georgia has crossed a certain line that has now stirred panic in a number of small, autonomous and independent states. Abkhazia is one of them.

The destruction of South Ossetia by Georgian and Russian forces will now push regions like Abkhazia into the arms of Russia for security and diplomatic recognition. Security is the number one issue in this part of the world. The massacre that occurred by Chechen Islamic extremists at Beslan in 2004 is still fresh in every person's mind. The destruction and ethnic cleansing in South Ossetia will just reinforce these fears.

I do not expect Abkhazia to start a second front. But I do expect the leadership of this small region to go to Russia for military and police protection, which they will receive. Will Georgia retaliate .... we will find out very soon.

Violence Mars Russia-Georgia Talks Before Rice Trip

A map of Georgia showing the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The head of Georgia's breakaway South Ossetia region has called for talks with Tbilisi to defuse mounting tensions over the Moscow-backed region. (AFP/Graphic)

From Reuters:

MOSCOW, July 9 (Reuters) - Bombings and gun battles in two breakaway regions of Georgia are threatening efforts to ease a standoff between Tbilisi and Moscow, hours before U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visits the Georgian capital.

Rice, who arrives in Tbilisi on Wednesday, is expected to appeal for restraint on all sides but also express support for former Soviet Georgia's push to join the NATO military alliance, an ambition that has angered Russia.

"We said that both Georgia and Russia need to avoid provocative behaviour," Rice said as she flew to Europe on Tuesday. She also said "some of the things that Russia did over the last couple of months added to tensions in the region."

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More News On Russia-Georgia Conflict

Russia seeks UN role for Georgia deal -- Sydney Morning Herald
Abkhazia rejects U.S. proposals for an international police presence -- International Herald Tribune
Russia submits UN draft text critical of Georgia -- Reuters
Russia says Georgia whipping up tensions with separatists -- AFP
Georgian rebel region calls for peace talks: report -- AFP
Georgia plans operation to free detained soldiers -- Reuters

Video: Abkhazia calls on the world to stop 'Georgian terror' -- RussiaToday


My Comment: With Chechnya destroyed after 14 years of conflict, you would hope that all the players in the region would be careful with what they say and do. But this is clearly not the case. Russian intervention would blow this region apart and create a catastrophe that would equal Chechnya. The Georgians must walk this path very carefully.