Strait Of Hormuz Is Now The "Hotspot" On The Planet

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Meet The Most Combustible Spot On The Planet -- CBS/Tom Dispatch

Ever since December 27th, war clouds have been gathering over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow body of water connecting the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean and the seas beyond. On that day, Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi warned that Tehran would block the strait and create havoc in international oil markets if the West placed new economic sanctions on his country.

“If they impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports,” Rahimi declared, “then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz.” Claiming that such a move would constitute an assault on America’s vital interests, President Obama reportedly informed Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that Washington would use force to keep the strait open. To back up their threats, both sides have been bolstering their forces in the area and each has conducted a series of provocative military exercises.

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My Comment: Ramped up sanctions against Iran are to start this summer .... and that is when I predict the situation is gong to heat up in the Persian Gulf.

Gulf Arabs Are Thinking Of The Unthinkable

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Gulf Arabs Have Plans Against Hormuz Closure: Official -- Yahoo News/Reuters

ABU DHABI (Reuters) - Coastguards and naval forces of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) group of Arab countries have contingency plans for a possible attempt by Iran to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a Kuwaiti maritime official said on Monday.

Five of the six GCC members - Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Kuwait - rely on the world's most important energy shipping lane being open to export most of their oil or gas.

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My Comment: They are going through the motions, but no one (Iran included) wants to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Britain Warns That They Could Send Naval Reinforcements To The Gulf

On standby: the Royal Navy frigate HMS Argyll in the Strait of Hormuz Photo: REUTERS

Britain Could Send Military Reinforcements To Gulf -- The Telegraph

Britain could send military reinforcements to the Gulf if the dispute with Iran escalates, according to Philip Hammond, the Defence Secretary.

He said the decision to send HMS Argyll as part of an international flotilla of warships through the sensitive Strait of Hormuz on Sunday sent a "clear signal" to Tehran.

The deployment defied explicit Iranian threats to close the waterway. It coincided with an escalation in the West's confrontation with Iran over the country's nuclear ambitions.

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Update: UK Could Send Military Assets to Strait of Hormuz -- ABC News/AP

My Comment: It seems that everyone is preparing for the worse.

Scenario's For Iran To Close Down The Straits Of Hormuz To Oil Traffic

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Iran's Kamikaze Hormuz Threat -- Afshon Ostovar, Foreign Policy

Will Tehran really shut off one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints? Only if it is truly desperate.

When Iran's vice president, Mohammad Reza Rahimi, declared on Dec. 27 that "not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz" if Western countries followed through with threats of escalated sanctions over its nuclear program, the world sat up and took notice. Since then, tensions have run high in the Persian Gulf, with Iran holding naval exercises and U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warning Iran that closing the strait would be a "red line" for the United States.

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My Comment: I concur with this analysis. There are two scenarios that would force Iran to attempt to shut down the Persian Gulf to oil traffic .... (1) a military strike against its nuclear facilities .... or (2) they are truly desperate and they need a diversion to take the attention of their people away from their own problems with the Iranian government and refocus them on an outside threat.

Iran Threatens To Close The Straits Of Hormuz To Oil Traffic

Iranian Navy Speed Boat

Iran Says It Will Close Strait of Hormuz If Crude Exports Blocked -- RT

Tehran’s leadership has decided to order a blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz if the country’s oil exports are blocked, a senior Revolutionary Guard Commander said as reported by Iranian press.

­The strategic decision was made by Iran's top authorities, Ali Ashraf Nouri said, as cited by the Iranian Khorasan daily.

"The supreme authorities … have insisted that if enemies block the export of our oil, we won't allow a drop of oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This is the strategy of the Islamic Republic in countering such threats," Nouri said.

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Iran Threatens To Close The Straits Of Hormuz To Oil Traffic

Iran threatens to use Strait of Hormuz to challenge sanctions -- Herald Scotland
Iran Military Leader Says They Will Close Oil Strait If Oil Exports Blocked -- FOX News/AP
Iran plans more war games in strait as sanctions bite -- Vancouver Sun/Reuters
Iran Navy Drills Will Practice Hormuz Strait Closing, Mehr Says -- Bloomberg Businessweek

Could Iran Choke Off The World's Oil Supply?

Explainer: Iran's Threat To Blockade The Strait Of Hormuz -- Radio Free Europe

A hard-line Iranian newspaper considered to speak for Iran's supreme leader has come out in support of closing the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, the world's most important oil-shipping lane, as punishment against countries that have sanctioned Tehran over its suspect nuclear program.

A December 13 editorial in "Kayhan" asks, "Why has the Islamic Republic of Iran not used its unchallengeable right till now, when there is a conspiracy of imposing sanctions against our country's oil?"

The piece comes a day after an Iranian lawmaker reportedly said the country's military was planning to hold drills to practice closing the vital shipping passage. The news agency ISNA quoted deputy Parviz Sorouri as saying, "If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure."

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My Comment: Cutting off the world's oil supply will result in a rush of nations .... China, the U.S., Europe, etc... to send in their military forces to re-open the shipping lines and obliterate Iran's capacity to be a threat in the region. Is this the end goal of Iran .... hhhmmm ... I do not think so.

Shoudl We Be Concnered If Iran Decides To Close The Straits Of Hormuz?

Close The Strait Of Hormuz -- Washington Times editorial

Iran has more to lose than America in current standoff.

Iran is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. Go ahead, make our day. On Monday, Parviz Sarvari, a member of the Iranian parliament's national security committee, said, “Soon we will hold a military maneuver on how to close the Strait of Hormuz. If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure.” Closing the strategically important strait has long been viewed as one of Iran’s trump cards in the give-and-take with the United States and the West.

The impact of a strait crisis is overrated. About 17 percent of the world’s imported oil, or a third of oil transported by sea, goes through the strait. This is significantly less than the percentages from decades past when the Persian Gulf region was the global center of oil exports. Whether the temporary halt of that much oil would have a serious impact is questionable. Past regional crises have not lived up to their billing.

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Update: 'If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure': Iran threatens to shut Strait of Hormuz with military exercise -- Daily Mail

My Comment: If Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, they would be facing military strikes from US forces, the Gulf states, and hostility on the diplomatic front from countries dependent on Middle Eastern oil. There will be a run-up in oil prices, but this will subside when security is imposed .... and it will imposed .... with the expulsion of Iranian naval assets in the region and the presence of an international fleet of warships whose primarily purpose will be to protect the oil supply routes. If Iran wants to cross this red line .... I say good luck because the consequences and repercussions on them will be very severe.

Iran Conducting Military Exercises To Close The Straits Of Hormuz

MP: Iran To Stage Military Drill To Close Straits Of Hormuz -- FARS News Agency (Iran)

TEHRAN (FNA)- A member of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission said the military was set to practice its ability to close the Persian Gulf to shipping at the narrow Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil transit channel in the world.

"Soon we will hold a military maneuver on how to close the Strait of Hormuz. If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure," Parviz Sorouri said.

Israel and its close ally the United States have recently intensified their war rhetoric against Iran. The two arch foes of the Islamic Republic accuse Iran of seeking a nuclear weapon, while they have never presented any corroborative document to substantiate their allegations. Both Washington and Tel Aviv possess advanced weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear warheads.

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Update #1: Iranian army to practise shutting down Strait of Hormuz -- PanArmenian
Update #2: Military to practise blocking Straits of Hormuz -- Scotsman

My Comment: These remarks are coming from a radical Iranian MP .... the Iranian military (not surprisingly) are declining comment.