Islamist Insurgent Groups In Africa Want To Copy The Tactics That Were Successful For The Taliban In Winning The Afghan War

GAO, Mali - A Eurocopter Tiger (Eurocopter EC665 Tigre) helicopter (L) is seen at the French Military base in Gao, in northern Mali on November 8, 2019. MICHELE CATTANI/AFP  

CNBC: The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan could reshape counterinsurgencies in Africa, experts say 

* The shift in power comes at a critical juncture for the so-called war on terror for the governments of countries like Somalia, Mali, Mozambique and Nigeria, and the Western powers that support them. 

* French President Emmanuel Macron announced in July that the 5,000-strong troop presence in the Sahel would end in the first quarter of 2022. 

The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan and the subsequent withdrawal of Western troops was closely watched in many African capitals — and by Islamist insurgent groups on the continent. 

The shift in power comes at a critical juncture for the so-called war on terror for the governments of countries like Somalia, Mali, Mozambique and Nigeria, and the Western powers that support them. 

A media outlet linked to Somali militant group al-Shabab wrote “God is great” following news of the takeover. Meanwhile, the leader of West Africa’s Jama’at Nasral-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) jihadist organization drew comparisons between the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and France’s planned drawdown of military presence in West Africa’s Sahel region.  

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WNU Editor: The impact from the fall of Afghanistan is just starting. 

Everyone predicted that if the withdrawal from Afghanistan was not handled properly, a disaster would unfold. Where they were wrong was on the timetable.

Africa's Islamist movements have taken note on what has happened. They are now not only more committed than ever, but they now have a template on what to do to win the wars that they are fighting.

It is an understatement to say that President Biden's lack of strategic insight and calculation is going to carry a great cost to future generations.

Why Is The Pentagon Withholding Information From Congress On Last Year's Deadly Kenya Attack By Al Shabaab?

 

Washington Post: Pentagon chief under fire for withholding information about deadly Kenya attack 

Frustrated lawmakers are pressuring Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin for information about an attack last year in Kenya that killed three Americans, saying it is "simply unacceptable" for the Pentagon to stonewall Congress. 

The lawmakers said in a letter sent to the Pentagon on Friday that the Defense Department has not responded to numerous requests for information since the Jan. 5, 2020, attack was sprung by militants on a seaside airfield near the Somali border, and that members of the House Committee on Oversight and Reform expect more from the Pentagon and U.S. Africa Command. 

"On February 5, 2020, the Subcommittee on National Security wrote to DOD requesting a briefing on the attack," the lawmakers wrote. 

"Seventeen months later - despite repeated requests to your office and AFRICOM - DOD has not provided any substantive information about the attack or the security lapses that contributed to it, citing ongoing investigations." 

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WNU Editor: Here are more details of this attack that killed three Americans .... More Details Emerge On The Al-Shabaab Attack In Kenya That Killed Three Americans When Militants Overran Airfield (January 22, 2020).

US Troops Now ‘Commuting To Work’ To Help Somalia In Its Fight Against al-Shabab

Spc. Kevin Martin provides security for a 75th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron C-130J Super Hercules during unloading operations at an unidentified location in Somalia on June 28, 2020. (Tech. Sgt. Christopher Ruano/Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa via AP)  

Military Times: US troops now ‘commuting to work’ to help Somalia fight al-Shabab 

When President Donald Trump ordered roughly 700 U.S. troops to withdraw from Somalia late last year, it decreased the American footprint there, but not the mission to help that country’s military fight back against al-Shabab, al-Qaida’s largest affiliate. 

Three months after the completed drawdown, senior U.S. Africa Command leaders say that they are essentially doing the same work, but “commuting” from Europe and other East African countries to get it done. 

“There’s no denying that the repositioning of forces out of Somalia has introduced new layers of complexity and risk,” Army. Gen. Stephen Townsend, AFRICOM’s boss, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday. “... our understanding of what’s happening in Somalia is less now than it was when we were there on the ground, physically located with our partners. 

So we’re working to make this new mode of operation work.” Al-Shabab continues to carry out attacks around Somalia, including in capital city Mogadishu.  

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WNU Editor: The intent of former President Trump was to end the US military mission in Somalia and its mission. But elections have consequences, and now we are back to square one. 

My gut tells me that in the coming months the White House will be green-lighting the return of US troops back into their bases in Somalia to avoid this "commuting" hassle.

President Trump Wants All U.S. Troops Out Of Somalia

Bloomberg: Trump Demands a Plan to Withdraw U.S. Troops From Somalia 

 * U.S. has about 700 troops in troubled eastern African nation 

 * Terrorist group al-Shabaab could benefit from troop reduction 

President Donald Trump has told top advisers he wants to withdraw U.S. troops from Somalia, according to people familiar with the matter, allowing him to make good on campaign pledges to bring soldiers home even though the country remains beset by insurgents linked to al-Qaeda. 

The Pentagon has begun drafting plans for the president, and discussions have involved National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien, Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. 

The U.S. has 650 to 800 troops in Somalia, according to the U.S. Africa Command, including special forces that are helping train Somalia’s army. 

All or almost all were sent during Trump’s presidency. Somalia President Mohamed Abdullahi said in an interview that he’d like U.S. forces to stay, adding that he believes his country, with U.S. assistance, is on the brink of defeating the al Shabaab insurgents. 

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 More News On President Trump Wanting All U.S. Troops Out Of Somalia 

Report: Trump Wants To Pull U.S. Forces Out Of Somalia In Bid To Fulfill Campaign Promise -- Forbes 

Trump wants to withdraw troops from Somalia: Report -- Washington Examiner 

Trump demands a plan to withdraw US troops from Somalia -- The Print 

Pentagon Drafting Plans to Withdraw US Troops From Somalia - Reports -- Sputnik

The Pentagon Does Not Have A 'Light' Footprint In Africa

The Intercept: Pentagon’s Own Map of U.S. Bases in Africa Contradicts Its Claim of “Light” Footprint

Last month, about a dozen al-Shabab fighters infiltrated the perimeter of a military base in Manda Bay, Kenya. One of them took aim with a rocket-propelled grenade, firing at a U.S. surveillance plane and touching off an hourslong firefight. When it was all over, the two American pilots of that plane and a U.S. soldier were dead, two other U.S. military personnel were wounded, six surveillance aircraft and helicopters were destroyed, and parts of the airfield were in flames.

Where there are U.S. bases, there is the potential for such attacks, because bases are not just launching pads for offensive military operations, but targets for them too. Since 9/11, the U.S. military has built a sprawling network of outposts in more than a dozen African countries. The Intercept has obtained U.S. military documents and a set of accompanying maps that provide the locations of these African bases in 2019, including the one at Manda Bay. These formerly secret documents, created by the Pentagon’s Africa Command and obtained via the Freedom of Information Act, offer an exclusive window into the footprint of American military operations in Africa.

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WNU Editor: It looks like there will be no change in US policy when it comes to Africa .... Here’s what Esper’s AFRICOM review has decided so far (Defense News).

U.S. Military Downgrades Its Military Efforts Against Militants In The Sahel Region Of Africa

A US Army instructor demonstrates a weapon to Malian soldiers on April 12, 2018 during an anti-terrorism exercise at the Kamboinse - General Bila Zagre military camp near Ouagadougo, Burkina Faso. © Issouf Sanogo / AFP

France 24: US mulls troop cuts in Africa as strategy switches to ‘containing’ extremists

The United States announced Wednesday an initial plan for adjusting its military presence in Africa.The adjustment comes as a new US government report says that the US military has switched from trying to degrade Islamic extremist groups in West Africa’s sprawling Sahel region to merely trying to contain them.

The first change will see part of one infantry unit, around 800 troops, replaced with a similar number of military trainers and advisors to support local forces in “spotlight African countries,” Defense Department officials said.

“The message I’m relaying to my (African) partners is we are not walking away,” US Army Africa commander Major General Roger Cloutier told reporters.

“We are still engaged.”

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More News On The U.S. Military Downgrading Its Military Efforts Against Militants In The Sahel Region Of Africa

U.S. military downgrades strategy against Islamic extremists in Africa’s Sahel region -- SFGate/AP
U.S. shifts AFRICOM strategy as troops are 'overmatched' by militants -- UPI
US military downgrades efforts against militants in Sahel -- TRT World
US switches strategy in Sahel stoking pullout fears -- RFI

US Military Shifts Strategy From Degrading Militants In West Africa To Containment

Nigerien Armed Forces conduct a convoy movement, key leader engagement and ambush exercise during Flintlock 18 in Niger, Africa on April 15, 2018. Flintlock is U.S. Africa Command's premier and largest annual Special Operations Forces exercise. (Staff Sgt. Jeremiah Runser/Army)

Military Times: With limited resources, US military shifts strategy from degrading militants in West Africa to containment

Violence by militant groups in West Africa has spiked 250 percent over the last two years but constrained resources and manpower has pushed the U.S. military to switch strategies from degrading terror groups to containment, according to a recent inspector general report.

Resources for the thinly spread American troops across U.S. Africa Command may be further constrained should the Pentagon decide to curtail the counterterror mission in the region following a defense-wide posture review that is still pending.

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told reporters in January that U.S. troops were not withdrawing from AFRICOM entirely, but he suggested the U.S. might pull back on the counterterror mission in Africa to address great power competition, namely Russia and China.

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WNU Editor: This is not America's war. There is also no public support in America to dramatically escalate the US military role in combating these militant groups in West Africa.

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper: U.S. Will Not Completely Withdraw Forces From Africa

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper says U.S. does not plan to remove all troops from Africa as part of review.

Military Times: Esper says US military not withdrawing from AFRICOM

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told reporters at the Pentagon Thursday that the U.S. military would not conduct a full troop withdrawal from Africa, though an ongoing review that could result in troop reductions.

Lawmakers and national security experts have expressed concern over the potential reduction of U.S. troops from the region following an al-Shabab attack on the Manda Bay, Kenya, base that killed three Americans, among them a U.S. soldier.

The Pentagon is amidst a review of the U.S. troop posture across the globe as military planners look for avenues to shore up resources and forces to address rising near-peer threats like Russia and China, and to better align policy with the National Defense Strategy.

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Update #1: U.S. will not completely withdraw forces from Africa: Pentagon chief (Reuters)
Update #2: U.S. Officials: Some Troops To Stay In Africa Amid Moves By Russia, China (RFE)

WNU Editor: The French are relieved .... 'Critical to our operations': French defense minister asks Esper to maintain US presence in Africa (Washington Examiner).

More Details Emerge On The Al-Shabaab Attack In Kenya That Killed Three Americans When Militants Overran Airfield

New York Times: Chaos as Militants Overran Airfield, Killing 3 Americans in Kenya

The brazen Shabab assault at Manda Bay, Kenya, a sleepy seaside base near the Somali border, on Jan. 5 left three Americans dead, raising complex questions about the military’s mission in Africa.

WASHINGTON — Armed with rifles and explosives, about a dozen Shabab fighters destroyed an American surveillance plane as it was taking off and ignited an hourslong gunfight earlier this month on a sprawling military base in Kenya that houses United States troops. By the time the Shabab were done, portions of the airfield were burning and three Americans were dead.

Surprised by the attack, American commandos took around an hour to respond. Many of the local Kenyan forces, assigned to defend the base, hid in the grass while other American troops and support staff were corralled into tents, with little protection, to wait out the battle. It would require hours to evacuate one of the wounded to a military hospital in Djibouti, roughly 1,500 miles away.

The brazen assault at Manda Bay, a sleepy seaside base near the Somali border, on Jan. 5, was largely overshadowed by the crisis with Iran after the killing of that country’s most important general two days earlier, and is only now drawing closer scrutiny from Congress and Pentagon officials.

But the storming of an airfield used by the American military so alarmed the Pentagon that it immediately sent about 100 troops from the 101st Airborne Division to establish security at the base. Army Green Berets from Germany also were shuttled to Djibouti, the Pentagon’s major hub in Africa, in case the entire base was in danger of being taken by the Shabab, an East African terrorist group affiliated with Al Qaeda.

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WNU Editor: The local Kenyan security forces that were responsible for protecting the base fled. Everything went downhill after that.

US Considers Plan To Reduce Or Withdraw Troops Completely From West Africa

Daily Mail: Defense secretary draws up plans to pull troops out of anti-terror operations in West Africa in first move by Pentagon to meet Donald Trump's promise to end the 'endless wars'

The Pentagon is mulling a plan to reduce or withdraw troops completely from West Africa, The New York Times reported Tuesday
President Trump has long promised to end the 'endless wars,' though this move would reposition troops, not shrink U.S. forces
There are between 6,000 and 7,000 American troops in African, who are mainly in West Africa, but also Somalia

The Pentagon is looking into reducing or even withdrawing US troops from West Africa, part of a worldwide redeployment of military forces.

The New York Times reported Tuesday that Defense Secretary Mark Esper is looking at proposals and won't make a decision before January.

There are between 6,000 and 7,000 US troops in Africa, mainly in West Africa but also in places like Somalia.

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WNU Editor: These are not America's wars. But this is going to be a costly shift .... The Pentagon is thinking about closing a $110 million drone base it just opened to focus on Russia and China (Business Insider).

More News On The US Considering Plans To Reduce Or Withdraw Troops Completely From West Africa

Pentagon Eyes Africa Drawdown as First Step in Global Troop Shift -- The New York Times
US considers pulling troops from West Africa: report -- AFP
Defense secretary eyes pullout from West Africa: report -- The Hill
Pentagon examining a reduction of the US footprint in West Africa -- Military Times
U.S. considers proposals to reduce troop strength in West Africa -- The Week
U.S. considering removing its troops from West Africa -- CGTN
US Military Looking To Pull Back? Why The Pentagon May Withdraw Troops From West Africa -- IBTimes
Pentagon Considering Major US Troops Pullback From Africa - Reports -- Sputnik

This U.S. Base Is On The Frontlines Against Islamic Extremists

Air Force Times: This obscure, costly air base is the new front in the battle against violent extremism

On a sandy patch of land in Niger, at the edge of the Sahara Desert, lies the Air Force’s newest base. It’s all but unknown to the vast majority of Americans and is shrouded in secrecy, but it represents one of the biggest construction efforts in Air Force history — and a new front in the fight against extremist militants on the African continent.

Welcome to Nigerien Air Base 201.

U.S. Africa Command on Nov. 1 announced that the new base in Agadez, Niger — designed to house armed drones and other aircraft that have been operating out of an international airport in Niamey, Niger’s capital — had begun flying intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions that week.

Critically located in central Niger, Air Base 201 is positioned to strike terrorist groups and extremist militants — including fighters affiliated with al-Qaida and the Islamic State — in countries throughout the Sahel region, which spans the width of the African continent south of the Sahara and includes parts of Mali, Sudan and Chad.

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WNU Editor: More details on this U.S. base can be read here .... US-Constructed Air Drone Base In Niger Begins Operations (November 3, 2019).

US-Constructed Air Drone Base In Niger Begins Operations

An Airman from the 724th Expeditionary Air Base Squadron marshals a C-130J Super Hercules at Nigerien Air Base 201, Agadez, Niger, August 3, 2019. This was the first C-130 to take-off at Air Base 201, marking the beginning of limited Visual Flight Rules operations at the base. U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Devin Boyer

Business Insider: US Air Force drones in a new base in Niger are now locked and loaded against terrorist threats

* Nigerien Air Base 201, a US-constructed base in Niger, will finally begin counterterrorism operations using intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) drones.
* The massive project costed $110 million, and experienced delays due to inclement weather conditions.
* Here's are some key details about Nigerien Air Base 201.

A $110 million Nigerien air base constructed by the US will finally begin counterterrorism operations using intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) drones after delays due to inclement weather conditions, the military announced on Friday.

"We are working with our African and international partners to counter security threats in West Africa," US Africa Command (AFRICOM), the combatant command overseeing US operations in the continent, said in a statement. "The construction of this base demonstrates our investment in our African partners and mutual security interests in the region."

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More News On Nigerien Air Base 201

US-Constructed Air Base in Niger Begins Operations -- VOA
Armed drones to fly out of Niger air base now operational after delayed completion -- Air Force Times
ISR Operations Begin at Nigerien Air Base 201 -- Air Force Magazine
US begins ISR flight operations from Air Base 201 in northern Niger -- Defense Post
US Begins Drone Operations Out of New Niger Air Base -- Military.com

U.S. Military Vehicle Hit By Roadside Bomb In Niger

U.S. Tactical Vehicle Damaged by Improvised Explosive Device in Niger -https://t.co/9asnnto9kA pic.twitter.com/CJ3qgdZvcW

— US AFRICOM (@USAfricaCommand) June 9, 2019

FOX News: US military vehicle hit by roadside bomb in Niger, officials say

A roadside bomb exploded damaging a U.S. military vehicle struck in the West African country of Niger, but no one was killed, U.S. Africa Command told Fox News on Sunday.

U.S. officials confirmed a tactical vehicle was damaged in Saturday's explosion but said the cause was “undetermined at this time.”

U.S. Africa Command told Fox News: “A U.S. Mine Resistant Ambush Protected All-Terrain Vehicle (MAT-V) activated an improvised explosive device (IED) while entering a firing range in the vicinity of Ouallam, Niger.”

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Update #1: Niger IED incident spotlights U.S. terror fight in African country (Washington Times)
Update #2: US military vehicle hits roadside bomb in Niger, no casualties (Military Times)

WNU Editor: Very few details on this attack are being released, but it looks like this was a targeted attack. The African Sahel is becoming a very dangerous place as radical Islamists try to assert their control over this region. This is not going to be the last attack.

What Is The U.S. Strategy In Africa?

Sean D. Naylor and Nick Turse, Yahoo News: Libyan war escalates amid lack of U.S strategy for secret missions in Africa

The advance of a rogue militia on Tripoli, the capital city of Libya, has forced the hasty evacuation of U.S. troops from that country, highlighting the lack of a cohesive strategy for ongoing U.S. military operations in Africa and a seeming White House ambivalence about the continent, according to former officials.

For several years, from a handful of outposts in Libya, U.S. special operators have been conducting counterterrorism missions with names like Obsidian Lotus and Odyssey Resolve. These are just two of dozens of named operations that, largely unknown to the American public, have been launched from a string of bases across the northern half of Africa, according to information obtained by Yahoo News via the Freedom of Information Act.

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WNU Editor: There is none that I know of.

Head Of U.S. Special Operations Forces In Africa: ‘We Are Not Winning’ Counterterror War In Sahel

A Burkinabe police officer with the Special Intervention Unit fires his AK-47 rifle during a simulated terrorist attack as part of exercise Flintlock 2019 in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, Feb. 27, 2019.

VOA: ‘We Are Not Winning’ Counterterror War in Sahel, US Military Leader in Africa Says

OUAGADOUGOU, BURKINA FASO — The United States and its allies are not winning the counterterrorism war for the Sahel, the head of U.S. special operations forces in Africa told VOA Thursday.

“I would tell you at this time, we are not winning,” U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. Marcus Hicks, the head of U.S. Special Operations Command Africa, said Thursday on the sidelines of Flintlock, a major U.S.-led military exercise in the region. The exercise involves about 2,000 commandoes from more than 30 African and Western countries.

The host of this year’s exercise, Burkina Faso, is battling an insurgency from several al-Qaida-linked groups, particularly in the past several months.

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Update: Top U.S. Gen. Warns: ‘We Are Not Winning’ Anti-Jihad War in Africa’s Sahel Region (Breitbart)

WNU Editor: I do not see any U.S. political or public will to get involved in Africa's insurgencies.

U.S. Special Forces Bolster African Armies

DW: Flintlock: US Special Forces bolster African armies

Despite US special commando raids and drone strikes, as well as military training given to African allies, terrorism in the Sahel region is on the rise. Can the military put an end to the insurgency?

At the Zagreb military camp in Burkina Faso, US Special Operations forces are sharpening over 20 African armies in the art of countering extremist organizations.

Despite the armies coming from so many diverse countries, they show off cooperation in small unit tactics and intelligence sharing.

The Cameroonian assault team, from an elite battalion, uses a drone to track militias. Their intelligence is then shared with over the 2,000 service members participating in the Flintlock 2019.

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WNU Editor:  This training appears to not be working .... ‘We Are Not Winning’ Counterterror War in Sahel, US Military Leader in Africa Says (VOA).

Top Africom General: Airstrikes Not Enough To Defeat Somalia's al-Shabaab

The Hill: Top US general on Africa: Airstrikes not enough to defeat al-Shabaab

The head of U.S. Africa Command (Africom) on Thursday said that U.S. airstrikes against al-Shabaab fighters in Somalia are not enough to defeat the al Qaeda-affiliated militant group, and that local forces need to “step up.”

“At the end of the day, these strikes are not going to defeat al-Shabaab,” Marine Corps Gen. Thomas Waldhauser told lawmakers during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.

“But they are going to provide the opportunity for the federal government and the Somali National Army to grow and assume the security of that country.”

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WNU Editor: He is right. You need a lot of boots on the ground, and that is not going to happen for the U.S. in Somalia.

More News On The Top Africom General Warning That Airstrikes Are Not Enough To Defeat Somalia's al-Shabaab

Effectiveness of US airstrikes in Somalia questioned by AFRICOM commander -- Stars and Stripes
US General: Strikes in Somalia Won't Stop Al-Shabab -- VOA/AFP
US Africa commander says Somalia airstrikes won’t defeat al Shabab -- Washington Examiner

U.S. To Cut Troops In Africa Amid Shifting Focus Towards Russia, China

Reuters: Pentagon to cut troops in Africa as focus shifts to China, Russia

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. military will withdraw hundreds of troops focused on counterterrorism operations in Africa over the next several years to support the Pentagon's increased focus on countering threats from China and Russia, officials said on Thursday.

Earlier this year, the U.S. military put countering China and Russia at the center of a new national defense strategy, the latest sign of shifting priorities after more than a decade and a half of focusing on the fight against Islamist militants.

"This realignment specifically projects to reduce forces by about 10 percent over the next several years - representing a fraction of the overall 7,200 DoD personnel operating in Africa," Commander Candice Tresch, a Pentagon spokeswoman, told Reuters.

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More News On The U.S. To Cutting Troops In Africa Amid Shifting Focus Towards Russia, China

US to reduce number of troops in Africa -- CNN
DoD is stretched thin and plans to pull back in Africa -- Military Times
US military to draw down in Africa by 'less than 10 percent' -- The Hill
US to cut Africom troops amid focus on Russia and China -- BBC
Pentagon: Africa command to pursue drawdown, realignment -- UPI
Pentagon to pull hundreds of counterterror troops from Africa -- Washington Examiner
US to cut troop figures in Africa by 10 percent -- Al Jazeera
Pentagon to Cut Troops From Africa Amid Shifting Focus Towards Russia, China -- Sputnik

U.S. Special Forces Have Engaged Against Al Qaeda In Tunisia

National Interest: America Is Quietly Expanding Its War in Tunisia

The first documented U.S. direct military engagement in Tunisia since World War II has largely passed unnoticed.

Last month, a U.S. Africa Command spokesperson confirmed in a Task & Purpose report that Marine Corps Raiders were involved in a fierce battle in 2017 in an unnamed North African country, where they fought beside partner forces against militants of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). AFRICOM acknowledged that two Marines received citations for valor but withheld certain details, such as the location—undisclosed due to “classification considerations, force protection, and diplomatic sensitivities.” The command also said the Marine Special Operations unit was engaged while on a three-day train, advise and assist operation. However, subsequent research and analysis strongly suggest U.S. involvement runs much deeper. In fact, the dramatic events described in the award citations obtained by Task & Purpose align with those that took place in Tunisia, which has been combatting a low-level insurgency in its western borderlands for the past seven years. Evidence indicates the battle occurred at Mount Semmama, a mountain range in the Kasserine governorate, near the Algerian border. There, the United States sustained its first casualty in action in Tunisia since World War II.

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WNU Editor: This "engagement" happened last year. One has to wonder if there have been more since then.

Pentagon's Nightmare Scenario For Africa - Large Parts Of Africa Controlled By ISIS, Al Qaeda, And Boko Haram

Nick Turse, The Intercept: U.S. Military’s Worst-Case Scenario: Large Parts of Africa Seized by ISIS, Al Qaeda, and Boko Haram

What keeps U.S. Africa Command chief Gen. Thomas Waldhauser up at night? That remains unknown, but the analysts under his command are worried about terrorist organizations like the Islamic State, Al Qaeda, and Boko Haram combining forces and destabilizing large swaths of the African continent.

Planning documents issued in October 2017 and classified by Waldhauser detail the worst-case scenarios imagined by the command. The forecasts, which are an update to AFRICOM’s Theater Campaign Plan and were obtained by The Intercept via a Freedom of Information Act request, center around potential gains by terrorist organizations in the north and west of the continent, specifically Libya, the Sahel, and the Lake Chad basin. They offer a nightmare vision of a destabilized, crisis-ridden region that could – if the worst happens — fall increasingly under the control of Al Qaeda, ISIS, and Boko Haram.

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WNU editor: Libya is the country that I currently see is the most vulnerable to such a hard-core Islamist takeover.