Showing posts with label commentary -- China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label commentary -- China. Show all posts

Thursday, May 6, 2021

The Experts And Pundits Differ On China Wanting War Or Not

Chinese President Xi Jinping (Image: Li Gang/Xinhua)  

WNU Editor: Below are some links to what the experts and pundits are thinking. 

As to what is my take? I agree with this analysis .... China already ‘engaging in irregular war’ with US in the ‘grey zone’ (News.com.au).  

China does not want war, at least not yet. It’s playing the long game -- John Blaxland (The Conversation)  

Is There a War Coming Between China and the U.S.? -- New York Times  

War over Taiwan a ‘gamble’ for China – this is what it really wants -- News.com.au  

Why Australia-China War Talk is Rising Between the Two Nations -- Newsweek  

The west is in a contest, not a cold war, with China -- Financial Times  

US China Sea War Could Spread to Japan, Australia, India -- Bloomberg 

Can a US war with China be limited? -- Asia Times

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

Where Would China Wage War?

A new type of nuclear submarine of the Chinese PLA Navy is reviewed at a naval parade to mark the 70th anniversary of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy off Qingdao, East China’s Shandong Province, on April 23, 2019. Photo: IC 


If there was a war, the strategic solution for China would be to fight it where it would be most convenient

As India announced on Monday new skirmishes with Chinese troops took place at Nathu La, in the state of Sikkim, Beijing declared it would launch its third aircraft carrier this year. 

In the past few days, PLA (People’s Liberation Army) jet fighters and submarines violated Taiwan’s airspace and waters. Has China become more aggressive, marching towards a military conflict with its neighbors? 

Is this simply Western propaganda or is China under siege? If so, will China become cordoned off? Many in China directly or indirectly voice this concern, and point to recent US policies vis-à-vis Beijing. If actual war is no longer impossible, where would it occur? 

But to understand the situation, we have to take a step back. 

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: China has territorial claims with almost all of its neighbors. If China wants to start a conflict/war, they have many options to look at.

Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Did China Win In 2020?

Felix Salmon, Axios: How China won 2020 

China will end this year as the only major country in the world to see its economy grow rather than shrink.  

Why it matters: 

China is operating from a position of great strength, with an economy expected to grow by 8.4% in 2021.

If President-elect Joe Biden views China as a "serious competitor," then the competition will be fiercer during his presidency than at any point in history. 

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: China still has a lot of problems. But the "trend" is certainly favoring continued Chinese economic growth in 2021 and beyond. And while President Biden is saying that he will "face up" to China. My Chinese contacts are telling me the opposite. They are confident that President Biden will soon start to remove the many restrictions and tariffs on Chinese goods that President Trump had imposed. 

Sunday, November 29, 2020

China's Economic Instability And The Lack Of Powerful And Reliable Allies Is What Is Stopping China From Becoming A Superpower

Strategy Page: China: Submit Or Suffer 

Two things are impeding Chinese efforts to achieve superpower status; economic stability and a network of powerful and reliable allies. 

The problems with economic stability are linked to the more serious problems with establishing stable relationships with other countries. 

Chinese tradition prevents both of these because China traditionally recognizes only enemies and subordinate foreigners. 

China does not do allies in the traditional way.

Current Chinese “allies” include Russia, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Turkey, Pakistan and Iran. 

These are not what most countries would consider reliable and useful allies. Turkey and Iran are not reliable or particularly dependable and useful. The other allies, including Russia, are more dependents than traditional allies. 


WNU Editor: The above analysis is correct.

Monday, September 14, 2020

China's State Media Says 'China Must Be Ready For A Potential War'

PLA Photo:VCG

Hu Xijin, Global Times: China must be militarily and morally ready for a potential war

Chinese people don't want war, but we have territorial disputes with several neighboring countries instigated by the US to confront China. Some of these countries believe that the US support provides them with a strategic opportunity and try to treat China outrageously. They believe that China, under the US' strategic pressure, is afraid, unwilling or unable to engage in military conflict with them. Thus they want to pull the chestnuts out of the fire. Considering that there is also the Taiwan question, the risk of the Chinese mainland being forced into a war has risen sharply in recent times.

Oftentimes, the less we want war, the more prominent the above-mentioned dilemma becomes. Chinese society must therefore have real courage to engage calmly in a war that aims to protect core interests, and be prepared to bear the cost. In that way, China's comprehensive strength can be effectively transformed into a strategic deterrence against all kinds of provocateurs.

As long as the outside world can feel such true will from China, it might in turn help us avoid a war.

Read more ....

Update: China's Global Times Warns: "China Must Be Ready For A Potential War" (Zero Hedge)

WNU Editor: China seems to be in a rush to prepare for war .... China To Fast-Track Its Third Aircraft Carrier; Expected To Be Launched By End Of 2020 (Eurasian Times). These warnings and threats from China are having an impact on countries like Taiwan .... Taiwan’s computer war games simulate invasion by People’s Liberation Army (SCMP).

Sunday, August 2, 2020

A protester shouts pro-China slogans outside the US consulate in Chengdu. Photograph: Thomas Peter/Reuters

Lily Kuo, The Guardian: 'China is powerful now': Beijing's aggressive global stance sparks wave of nationalism

As China comes under attack abroad, nationalist sentiment at home is being stoked – at the expense of other voices

For days, the US consulate in the Chinese city of Chengdu was not just a site for curious onlookers but for residents eager to express pride in their country. Some waved the Chinese flag while others set off fireworks. In one video, a woman said she was “extremely happy” to see the consulate close. “We have kicked out one more hub for spies!” she said, smiling as she pointed at the building.

In another video, widely circulated on Chinese social media, a CNN reporter attempting to broadcast is drowned out by a group belting out a patriotic Chinese song. The crowd sings cheerfully, if discordantly: “Praising our beloved motherland as it goes towards prosperity and power.”

Residents noted how different the scene was to one in 1999, when thousands of Chinese protesters descended on the US embassy in Beijing, after the US bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. Crying and pelting the building with eggs, stones, and any other objects they could find, demonstrators were angry at the US but also frustrated at how little their government could do to retaliate.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: China has always been nationalistic. There is no new "wave". That "wave" has always been there.  The only difference between now and when I lived and worked in China in the mid-1980s is that the Chinese now have social-media to express their sentiment.

Thursday, June 4, 2020

Is The Chinese Regime Legitimate?

President Xi Jinping of China, second row center, sat at the focal point of the stage during the opening of the National People’s Congress on Monday in Beijing. Credit Bryan Denton for The New York Times

Bradley A. Thayer, Real Clear Defense: The Chinese Regime Is Not Legitimate

Hong Kong is caught in China’s coils, as Beijing crushes its life brutally and effectively as any python does its prey. The “one country, two systems” model is reaching its anfractuous end with the new national security law imposed on Hong Kong. What China is gaining is that Hong Kong will be brought under complete control. As a consequence, Hong Kong cannot be a source of political unrest for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Nevertheless, what China lost is more considerable. What Hong Kong and other malodorous actions taken by the CCP against human rights and religious freedom reveals that the CCP lacks political legitimacy. It is important to remember this as the world commemorates the June 4th anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The Chinese Communist Party is going nowhere. But holding them accountable for their actions can be done, and the recommendations listed in the above post are a good start.

Wednesday, June 3, 2020

What We Must Do, What We Must Not Do When It Comes To China

Chinese President Xi Jinping gives his epic speech to the 19th National Congress. Photo: Reuters

Gordon G. Chang, Gatestone Institute: China: What We Must Do, What We Must Not Do

* The truth is that the United States is defending more than just its position in the international system. We are defending the international system itself, the system of treaties, conventions, rules, and norms.

* Unfortunately, Xi Jinping, the Chinese ruler, does not believe in that system. He is trying to impose China's imperial‑era notions of the world.

* In short, Chinese rulers believed that they had the mandate of heaven over tianxia, meaning "all under heaven." Recently, his pronouncements have become unmistakable.

* In the last few months, Xi Jinping has seen an historic opportunity because the United States has been stricken by the disease that China itself has pushed out... What must we do? First, let us talk about what we must not do. We must not save Chinese communism again. In the past, American presidents, when China has been stressed, had ridden to the rescue of the Chinese state.

China has attacked America with coronavirus. At this moment, more than 100,000 Americans have been killed. We brace ourselves for the deaths to come.

Today, I'll do two things. First, I'll talk about the nature of that attack. The second thing, what we must do to protect ourselves.

First of all, China is not, as many people will tell you, just a competitor. It is an enemy. China is trying to overthrow the international system, and in that process, it is trying to make you subject to modern-day Chinese emperors.

I know this sounds as if it cannot be true, but we must listen to what Chinese leaders say. When we do that, we realize that to defend the American republic and defend our way of life, we are going to have to decouple from China.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: My must read commentary/analysis for today.

Friday, May 29, 2020

For China The Target Has Always Been Taiwan

Charu Sudan Kasturi, OZY: China’s Real Target Is Taiwan

For Xi Jinping, the new controversial law for Hong Kong is part of a bigger plan to restore his credibility at home and send a message to Taiwan and the West.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday said Hong Kong is effectively “no longer autonomous” from mainland China. National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien has said Washington might impose sanctions on China. And Beijing says American threats are signs of a “new Cold War.”

All of this rhetoric is rooted in a proposal for a controversial law, unveiled last week at China’s National People’s Congress. The proposal bill, which will now be drafted by a smaller committee, would bypass Hong Kong’s semi-autonomous legislature in allowing the mainland to use military force to crush “subversive activity” and “terrorism” on the island. It comes months after pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong successfully blocked an extradition law.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: A good review on what are China's motives in the current situation.

Monday, April 27, 2020

A ‘New Way Of War’ From China?



Bates Gill and Adam Ni, The Conversation: Is it time for a ‘new way of war?’ What China’s army reforms mean for the rest of the world

The ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu once said,

Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.

Looking at the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) today, it’s hard to say which of these tactics is most germane.

Getting the answer right will have enormous consequences for the United States and the future of the Indo-Pacific region. Underestimating the PLA breeds complacency and risks costly overreach. Overestimating the Chinese military grants it unwarranted advantage.

Similarly, for the Chinese leadership, miscalculating its military capability could lead to disaster.

As such, any serious appraisal of Chinese military power has to take the PLA’s progress – as well as its problems – into account. This was the focus of a recent study we undertook, along with retired US Army lieutenant colonel Dennis Blasko, for the Australian Department of Defence.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: China's concerns that its military lacks war-fighting experience are justified. My father who fought in the Second World War and who studied war told me repeatedly a military that had experience in fighting wars would always overcome and defeat a far bigger foe who did not. This experience is what make the U.S and European armies formidable foes today. In the case of China, their military leadership, NCOs, etc., have had no experience on what fighting a war would look like, with the exception of one, the Sino-Vietnam war in 1979. This inexperience will definitely be costly to China in any major conflict that it may find itself in, even with a "new way of war".

China's Nightmare Startegic Scenarios

Protesters in Tiananmen Square, 2 Jun 1989 (CNN)

Michael Colebrook, Strategy Bridge: The Rhymes of History: Beijing’s Nightmare Strategic Scenarios


History does not repeat itself. With the exception of general platitudes about the permanence of international tension and the sporadic recurrence of violent conflict, statements about historical patterns and cycles of warfare can at best lead to historiographical confirmation bias and, at worst, can prejudice policymakers into taking counterproductive and unnecessary escalatory measures.[1] Diplomats, intelligence professionals, and politicians must tread with care when approaching history and any patterns that emerge from it, especially when trying to draw parallels with present-day events. History and policy are ultimately about particulars—particular interests, particular leaders, particular decisions, and particular crises. Specific policies matter and can go a long way towards avoiding war altogether or minimizing its impact should it occur.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Of the two nightmare scenarios outlined in the above report (1) encirclement by hostile powers and (2) domestic chaos, the one that the Communist leadership in Beijing fears the most (by far) is domestic chaos. That is why the Chinese leadership are hostile to President Trump. They see his attempts to change the trading relationship between the two countries as a direct threat to their economic/political stability. But this is where Beijing's strategic vision has failed. But being uncompromising on these issues, they are only creating a backlash from the U.S., but also from every country that finds themselves (or perceive themselves) as having the short end of the stick when it comes to dealing with China.

Sunday, April 26, 2020

After The Covid-19 Pandemic, China's Relations With The World Will Not Be The Same

Reuters

Keith B. Richburg, National Interest: After Coronavirus, China's Relations With the World Will Never Be the Same

Leaders of countries long friendly to China because of economic concerns—and willing to turn a blind eye to its atrocious human rights record and abuses like holding a million Muslim Uyghurs in concentration camps—are demanding Beijing be held to account.

As the novel coronavirus has spread from its original epicentre of Wuhan into a global pandemic, China’s ruling communist party is pushing a new narrative.

After some initial missteps by local officials, this narrative goes, the central government took charge and defeated the virus with tough, resolute measures. Western countries are now suffering because of their lax response and the inferiority of their cacophonous democratic systems compared with China’s one-party model. Other countries should learn from China’s success, and the Middle Kingdom is now generously sending expertise and badly needed equipment to the hardest hit places. China’s healthcare workers are heroes. And by the way, the virus may actually have originated with the US military, not in China.

It’s a message being slavishly promoted in the party-controlled state media, parroted by Chinese diplomats around the world, and perhaps even believed by a significant percentage of Chinese citizens subjected to decades of brainwashing by relentless propaganda and an education and indoctrination system that extols the virtues of party rule.

But around the world, this narrative is being met with derision and outright hostility.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: China's relations with the world was already changing before the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic.The pandemic has only accelerated these changes. My prediction. Supply chains will no longer be solely dependent on China. Diversification and the economic decoupling from China will start to occur, if not now, definitely in the future. China will also have a problem in its international relations. Its mishandling of the outbreak and its aggressive posture towards those who are critical of China's is only going to exacerbate tensions. This is not how you earn friends and allies.

Friday, April 10, 2020

Chinese Presidnet Xi Will Survive The Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic

Chinese President Xi Jinping visits the Covi-19 epicenter Wuhan, Hubei Province, on Mar 10. Photo: AFP

Francesco Sisci, Asia Times: Forget a coup against Chinese President Xi

Chinese leader may have made initial mistakes in responding to the virus threat but his preeminent position is still secure.

At the beginning of the epidemic in late January and early February, much of the foreign press argued that the coronavirus was China’s moment of crisis that would trigger political turmoil to bring down the Beijing government.

As this narrative faded away before the massive and effective government response to the virus, a new narrative has emerged – that paramount leader Xi Jinping is under threat because many Chinese officials blame him for the outbreak of the epidemic and are about to mount a coup to topple him.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: He will survive, but he has had a hit on his credibility, and many outside of Beijing have become even more unhappy with the current status quo.

Sunday, April 5, 2020

Has China Won The War For Global Supremacy?

Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Chuanshan port area of the Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, Zhejiang Province

Edward Lucas: China was once the cradle of the coronavirus pandemic but it has bounced back with astonishing speed, writes EDWARD LUCAS as he reveals the country may have won the war for global supremacy as well

* China's cases of coronavirus have stagnated while Western countries suffer
* Country's regime used mandatory quarantine and other draconian measures
* Virus outbreak has highlighted weaknesses in Western countries' reliance for resources such as medicine

China has — it seems — won its battle against the coronavirus. It may have won the war for global supremacy as well.

That would be a paradoxical outcome. The coronavirus outbreak originated in China, reportedly in the ‘wet’ livestock markets in the city of Wuhan. The (to us) bizarre habits of eating virus-infested wildlife such as snakes and bats — as well as the critically-endangered pangolin — on sale in these markets is a minority taste in modern China.

But in an interconnected, densely populated urban environment it is an epidemiological nightmare — and a danger that the Chinese authorities have ignored.

Delay and deceit over the origins of the outbreak cost precious time — and many thousands of lives both in China and subsequently in the rest of the world.

Indeed, the Chinese Communist Party is still lying about the true number of cases and deaths, according to a new U.S. intelligence report leaked this week. It has led to an increasingly intense war of words between the two nations.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: This pandemic has revealed how much of the world's supply chain now runs through China. And with every major economy in the world now shut down, China's role and importance in this global chain becomes even more important. Does this mean China is now the dominant power in the world? At the moment no. But if this global economic shutdown continues for another year (or more), the heavy debt load that it will create and the businesses that it will eliminate .... it is going to take a decade to recover. And the country that will be playing the major role in this recovery will be China. In a certain way the China of today reminds me of the U.S. after the Second World War. The U.S. was the only standing economic power at the end of that conflict, and it used its position to dominate geopolitical events for 75 years. China may find itself in that position in the next year or two as this pandemic continues to ravage the world. And if that happens, you can take this to the bank, China will exploit the situation for its benefit.

Monday, March 30, 2020

The Coronavirus Pandemic Has Shaken China's Young To Push For Change

Young people in China campaigning for freedom of speech and accusing the government of hiding the truth COVID-19. VOA

DNYUZ: Coronavirus Crisis Awakens a Sleeping Giant: China’s Youth

Students have flooded social media to organize donations for Chinese doctors battling the coronavirus epidemic. Workers have marched in the streets to demand compensation for weeks of unemployment during citywide lockdowns. Young citizen journalists have taken to YouTube to call for free speech.

The coronavirus outbreak has mobilized young people in China, sounding a call to action for a generation that had shown little resistance to the ruling Communist Party’s agenda.

For much of their lives, many young Chinese have been content to relinquish political freedoms as long as the party upheld its end of an unspoken authoritarian bargain by providing jobs, stability and upward mobility. Now, the virus has exposed the limits of that trade-off.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I was in China in the 1980s, and I saw the growing movement among the young against the Communist Party and their rule. It was primarily among university students and teachers, and what struck me was that they did not care about their personal safety. They just wanted something better in their life. I also believed at the time that they would never succeed. The Chinese Communist establishment had the means to crush all dissent, the only question that everyone like myself wondered at the time was .... when were they going to use it. That questioned was answered on June 4, 1989.

I am now seeing the set groundswell of opposition to the Communist Party and their rule among the young. But unlike the 1980s where the protest movement resided mainly among University students and intellectuals, this one is different, the current opposition is massive and it is coming from everyone under 35. I can understand this sentiment. The social contract where Beijing and the Communist Party would provide safety, stability, and a better life to the citizens of China has been broken. What has made it worse are the lies and disinformation coming from central government, and no willingness among the top leadership to acknowledge this disaster. This has left a foul taste in everyone's mouth, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. My prediction. If the economy does not improve in the coming months, and if there is a second pandemic wave later this year as bad as the one in January/February, the Chinese government under President Xi is going to face enormous opposition, starting from the provinces directly impacted by this virus, to the coastal provinces of China that are also its industrial heartland. This is the nightmare scenario, and it will have global consequences if it gets out of hand. If you think the protests in Hong Kong in 2019 were bad, you have seen nothing yet.

Update: Another must read on how China's young are reacting to this .... 'I Have the Obligation to Speak for the Dead' (VOA).

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Should China Be Blamed For The Expected Global Recession/Depression In 2020?



SCMP: Coronavirus: will Donald Trump blame China for expected global recession in 2020?

* Donald Trump tweet on Monday noted that Washington will support those US industries hit by the ‘Chinese virus’ outbreak
* Analysts suggest that while China engaged in early cover up of virus, US initial response failure may render blame game ineffective

On Monday, US President Donald Trump posted a tweet suggesting that China was responsible for the global economic damage that will be caused by the coronavirus pandemic, because the virus was first detected there.
The tweet may come to be viewed as the first shot in a blame game between the world’s two largest economies, as they look to fault the other for an incoming global recession
that analysts now see as inevitable this year.

That the economy is set to nosedive in a US election year provides greater motivation for Trump to find a scapegoat, as he looks to shore up his domestic support.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: China currently has "two big fears/concerns" among the many that they are going through right now. Being blamed for the deaths of hundreds of thousands if not millions from the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic, and the horrible economic costs that it will inflict on the world. Image and face have always been important to China. This pandemic disaster is a nightmare scenario for how the Beijing government wants the world to see China. Does China deserve this blame. Not really. Pandemics have been, are, and always will be acts of nature. Circumstances bring them about, and we as humans try our best to confront these pandemics as best as we can. We usually fail, but most of us survive, and we forget about them when they have passed until the next one appears and repeat the entire process again.

Friday, March 6, 2020

Will The Coronavirus Strengthen Xi Jinping And Chinese Communist Party?

A cyclist in Shanghai rides past a banner featuring an image of Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday. Photo: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

Cissy Zhou, SCMP: Coronavirus crisis will ultimately strengthen Xi Jinping and Chinese Communist Party despite economic turmoil, US analysts say

* Another prediction: likelihood of China meeting the purchasing goals of the phase one US trade deal this year is ‘somewhere between zero and zero’
* ‘The state expands to deal with the crisis and then remains at a new expanded level even after the crisis fades away’

The likely outcome of the coronavirus epidemic is not only that Chinese President Xi Jinping remains in power, but also that the Communist Party emerges bigger and stronger despite the current economic challenges, long-time China watchers said on Thursday.

China’s responses in the first few months of the outbreak resulted in some criticism of Xi, and multiple signs have pointed to negative economic growth in the first quarter. But, after the crisis fades, “it’s very unlikely that there’s any significant or overt political challenge to Xi Jinping,” said Jude Blanchette, who holds the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Chinese President Xi and the Chinese Communist Party will stay in power because they own the guns and the security apparatus that keeps them power. But make no mistake about it, President Xi and the Communist Party have taken a hit, and many in China are not happy with how this crisis has been handled.

Saturday, February 29, 2020

Will China's Economy Surpass The U.S. By 2 Or 3 Times



CNBC: Elon Musk says Chinese economy will surpass US by 2 or 3 times: ‘The foundation of war is economics’

* Elon Musk predicted that the Chinese economy will surpass the United States’ at least two-fold.
* The two nations already are the world’s two largest economies, although the U.S. economy is currently larger.
* China overtaking the American economy would likely cause increased tension between the two countries, which are already at odds on issues such as trade and 5G technology.

ORLANDO, Fla. — Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk predicted Friday that the Chinese economy will eventually surpass the United States’ by at least two-fold – which would up the ante between the nations’ massive militaries.

“A thing that will feel pretty strange is that the Chinese economy is probably going to be at least twice as big as the United States’ economy, maybe three times,” Musk said during a fireside chat with U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. John Thompson at the Air Warfare Symposium in Orlando, Florida.

“The foundation of war is economics,” Musk said. “If you have half the resources of the counterparty then you better be real innovative, if you’re not innovative, you’re going to lose.”

The two nations already are the world’s two largest economies. The U.S. dominates with $21.44 trillion in nominal GDP and makes up one-fourth of the world economy. China, however, is the fastest-growing trillion-dollar economy with GDP of $14.14 trillion, according to the Nasdaq.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I know my Chinese contacts believe that their economy will be surpassing the U.S. economy by 2030. But 2 or 3 times larger .... that is going to take a few decades.

Saturday, February 8, 2020

Will The Chinese People Turn On The Communist Party?

Image: China's President Xi Jinping (C) attends the bilateral meeting with President of Botswana Mokgweetsi Masisi (not pictured) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, 31 August 2018. Roman Pilipey/Pool via Reuters

Wang Xiangwei, SCMP: Coronavirus: what Xi fears most is Chinese turning on the Communist Party

* It’s not just lives, health and the economy that are threatened by the deadly disease.
* China’s authoritarian centralised system of rule is, too

Back on January 21 last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping told a gathering of senior officials that they must be on guard against “black swans” and “grey rhinos” which could threaten the rule of the Communist Party
amid a slowing economy.

At that time, Xi’s use of animal metaphors sparked discussions among observers who generally interpreted his warnings as being related to different kinds of economic risks. “Black swans” are events that cannot be predicted but have a profound impact on markets, while “grey rhinos” are known risks that have the potential to cause great harm but which people choose to ignore.

One year later, Xi’s wildlife metaphors about the dangers facing the country have proved prophetic on a more literal level.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The Chinese Communist Party and the centralization of rule from Beijing has always had a tenuous relationship with the Chinese people. This outbreak, if not under control in the coming months, is going to test that relationship. But as much as Xi is worried about the Chinese turning against the Communist Party, an even bigger concern for him is if the Communist Party turns against him.

Tuesday, January 21, 2020

January Has Not Been A Good Month For China

Image: China's President Xi Jinping (C) attends the bilateral meeting with President of Botswana Mokgweetsi Masisi (not pictured) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, 31 August 2018. Roman Pilipey/Pool via Reuters

Tom Rogan, Washington Examiner: China just suffered five small defeats in January

China is America's preeminent global adversary. But in recent years, China has been the one scoring most of the wins in this new cold war. Fortunately, January has brought Xi Jinping's Communist regime five small defeats.

The four most recent defeats all came last week.

First, there was the U.S. Senate's introduction of the Utilizing Strategic Allied Telecommunications Act. The bipartisan legislation will provide $1 billion in funding alongside regulatory changes. The intent is to provide cellular providers with new ways of building out their 5G networks. But the strategic effect should be felt in foreign nations finding alternatives to using China's Huawei for their 5G infrastructures. This is critically important because Huawei serves the Communist Party's espionage apparatus. And China will use Huawei's 5G networks to spy on our allies and their citizens. But if the United States can provide allies with an affordable, superior, and safer 5G alternative, they'll be more amenable to rejecting Huawei.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: These small defeats will not hinder China's ambitions or growth. The big worry in Beijing right now is the Wuhan Coronavirus.