Report: ISIS Is Poised For A 'Devastating' Comeback

Photo from Islamic State Media’s twitter profile, 7/2/14

Daily Mail: ISIS is poised for a 'devastating' comeback with the help of secret billions and sleeper cells, new report warns

* The Institute for the Study of War published a report about a possible resurgence
* ISIS has reportedly been regrouping in Iraq since its defeat in Syria this year
* There are several sleeper cells and billions of pounds at the group's disposal

ISIS could be set for a 'devastating' comeback despite its defeat earlier this year - a bombshell study has revealed.

US-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War published a report suggesting the caliphate is alive and well and is set to re-emerge imminently with deadly consequences.

According to the report, ISIS still maintains several sleeper cells and has accrued billions of pounds worth of funding which has allowed it to remain a threat.

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Update #1: Islamic State is poised to make a ‘devastating’ comeback, new report warns (News.com.au)
Update #2: Attacks from ISIS sleeper cells in Iraq and Syria could set the stage for a future land grab (Washington Examiner)

WNU Editor: The report is here .... ISIS's Second Comeback: Assessing the Next ISIS Insurgency (ISW).

Is This The Future Of ISIS?

Sri Lankan Easter terror attacks. Reuters

Charlie Winter and Aymenn al-Tamimi, The Atlantic: ISIS Relaunches as a Global Platform

The Sri Lanka bombings were a preview of the Islamic State’s future.

Two days after the bombings in Sri Lanka, the Islamic State came out and said it was behind them. It backed up its claim with video evidence that showed the attackers gathering in front of its flag to pledge allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the group’s current leader. The attack had been coming for some time, and others like it are almost certainly being planned—and not just in Sri Lanka. That’s because terrorism has long been a crucial promotional tactic for ISIS. This won’t change just because the organization, which tried to build a proto-state on territory it held in Iraq and Syria, was militarily defeated earlier this year.

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WNU Editor: As long as the message of radical Islam continues to resonate with many Muslims, the violence that it breeds will continue.

Why Did The Islamic State Succeed In The Beginning?

Militant Islamist fighters take part in a military parade along the streets of northern Raqqa province, June 2014. REUTERS/Stringer

Kenneth M. Pollack, RCB: Why Was ISIS Successful?

The following essay is adapted from 'Armies of Sand: The Past, Present, and Future of Arab Military Effectiveness' by Kenneth M. Pollack, now available from Oxford University Press.

'Armies of Sand: The Past, Present, and Future of Arab Military Effectiveness' explains how the politics, economics, and culture of the modern Arab world has shaped the military power of the Arab states. Overwhelmingly, the impact has been negative, producing the vast tableaux of misfortune that has been Arab military history since 1945 and right up to the present day. It is why Arab armed forces have so consistently underperformed, losing most of their wars despite any number of favorable material factors. It is also why their victories have been rare and typically modest, if not outright Pyrrhic.

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WNU Editor: I agree with this analysis.

The Islamic State's Caliphate May Be Gone But Its Economic Empire Still Exists

ISIS Gold. The photos show one coin with a detailed image of sheaths of wheat blowing in the wind, whilst another has a map of the world. (Twitter)

David Kenner, The Atlantic: All ISIS Has Left Is Money. Lots of It.

Even without a physical state, the Islamic State can still fund its main product: political violence.

BEIRUT—If you’re looking to transfer money here, there’s a chance you will be directed to Abu Shawkat. He works out of a small office in a working-class suburb of the Lebanese capital, but won’t give you its exact location. Instead, he’ll direct you to a nearby alleyway, and whether he shows up depends on whether he likes the look of you.

Abu Shawkat—not his real name—is part of the hawala system, which is often used to transfer cash between places where the banking system has broken down or is too expensive for some to access. If he agrees to do business, you’ll set a password and he will take your cash, then provide you with the contact information of a hawala broker in the city where your money is headed. Anyone who offers that specific password to that particular broker will get the funds. Thus, cash can travel across borders without any inquiry into who is sending or receiving it, or its purpose.

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WNU Editor: I am sure that this wealth is one of the reasons why this man has the resources to allude capture .... Where Is Islamic State Leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdad? (March 24, 2019).

Does Islamic State Still Pose A Threat?

Militant Islamist fighters take part in a military parade along the streets of northern Raqqa province, Syria, June 30, 2014. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

Reuters: Explainer: Does Islamic State still pose a threat?

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Islamic State looks about to lose its last foothold - on the banks of the Euphrates near the Iraq border - but while its era of territorial rule may be over for now, there is near universal agreement that IS remains a threat.

WHAT HAS ITS TERRITORIAL DEFEAT ACCOMPLISHED?

Islamic State’s possession of land in Iraq and Syria set it apart from other like-minded groups such as al Qaeda and became central to its mission when it declared a caliphate in 2014, claiming sovereignty over all Muslim lands and peoples.

The destruction of the quasi-state it built there has denied the group its most potent propaganda and recruiting tool as well as a logistical base from which it could train fighters and plan coordinated attacks overseas.

It also freed its former subjects from summary executions and draconian punishment for breaking its strict laws or, for some minorities, sexual slavery and slaughter.

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WNU Editor: ISIS is not the threat that it once was. Losing its territory has crippled it. But it is an ideology that has millions of supporters worldwide, and as long as its radical viewpoint is not confronted directly, it and its many offshoots will continue to run amok when the opportunity arises.

What Will The Islamic State Look Like In 2018?

Militant Islamist fighters take part in a military parade along the streets of Raqqa, Iraq, in June, 2014. (Reuters)

ABC News Online: Islamic State: What will the hard-line jihadist group look like in 2018?

Now that the Islamic State caliphate across Syria and Iraq has been largely dismantled, the question among analysts remains as to what shape and form the group will take in 2018 and how it will manifest itself throughout the region.

But rather than deeming the brutal militant group completely destroyed or defeated, counter-insurgency expert David Kilcullen explains that for now, it has just lost control of its cross-border Middle Eastern territory as it seeks to rebuild itself.

"It's fair to say that the territorial possessions of Islamic State — that is, all the cities they controlled and roughly one third of Iraq and Syria that they had at their height — that sort of territorial holding has been crushed," Mr Kilcullen told the ABC's The World program.

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WNU editor: They are in the rebuilding phase right now. But since their ideology is still accepted by millions .... they are going to be a problem for a very long time.

The Next Generation Of Islamic Militants?

A photo posted on Twitter on March 18, 2015, by Zehra Duman, aka Umm Abdullatif, a self-professed Australian female ISIS member. SITE Intelligence Group

Souad Mekhennet and Joby Warrick, National Post/Washington Post: ISIS brides returning home and raising the next generation of jihadist martyrs

The plan to use women to launch the Islamic State's next incarnation involves female returnees teaching the glories of the caliphate to their offspring

She covered herself in black from head to toe to greet a recent visitor to the small Moroccan house where she stays, and removed her veil only when assured that her guest, also a woman, was alone. Over sips of mint tea, she spoke admiringly of her militant husband and the comrades she met in the Islamic State’s all-female brigade. Calling herself Zarah – she declined to give her family name because she had traveled to Syria in secret – she vowed that her children would someday reclaim the Islamist paradise she believes was stolen from her family.

“We will bring up strong sons and daughters and tell them about the life in the caliphate,” she said, fingering her teacup through black gloves. “Even if we hadn’t been able to keep it, our children will one day get it back.”

Zarah’s blunt-spoken fealty to the Islamic State was remarkable, given the physical and legal perils facing Islamic State residents who seek to return to former homes. But counterterrorism officials fear that the sentiments expressed by the Moroccan woman may not be so unusual.

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WNU Editor: Islam has been at war since the beginning .... this is one reason why.

The Islamic State's Ideology Lives On

Michael P. Dempsey, Business Insider/Foreign Policy: The caliphate may be destroyed, but ISIS isn't defeated

* ISIS no longer controls any major population center in Iraq or Syria.
* While the much-dreamed-about caliphate may be dead, the resilient and adaptive group almost certainly will not go quietly into the night.
* Rather, it will work doggedly in the coming months to keep its brand alive, likely through a combination of actions.

The fall of the town of Abu Kamal in Syria and recent victories by Iraqi security forces in Qaim and Rawa in Iraq mark the collapse of the Islamic State caliphate. With the loss of these towns located along the Iraq-Syria border, the terrorist group no longer controls any major population center in either country.

This represents quite a reversal for the Islamic State from its heady days of only three years ago, when it controlled vast swaths of territory, routinely extorted taxes from local businesses, exploited the region’s natural resources (especially oil), and governed a large percentage of the population of both countries. Those days are thankfully done — at least for now — and that’s a development worth celebrating.

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WNU Editor:  I do not see the Islamic State's caliphate returning in Syria and Iraq for a long time. They have been defeated, and it will probably function as a low level insurgency for the foreseeable future. As for other parts of the world who have embraced this version of radical Islam .... the battle will continue.

Has The Islamic State Been Militarily Defeated In Iraq And Syria?

Business Insider: ISIS has been militarily defeated in Iraq and Syria

* The leaders of Iraq and Iran both declared the terrorist group ISIS defeated militarily in Iraq and Syria.
* Iraqis and Syrians, with assistance from the US and other regional militias, took their countries back from the terror group that declared its sovereign territory in the summer of 2014.
* ISIS still has territory in countries around the world but has been brutally disrupted by a US-backed bombing campaign and advancing ground forces.

Iraqi Prime Minister Hadir Al-Abadi declared military victory over the Islamic State in Iraq on Tuesday, just hours after Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced that Iranian-backed forces had driven the terror group out of Syria.

ISIS's last Iraqi town of Rawa fell on Friday, and Abadi only awaits the clearing of a patch of desert along Iraq's border with Syria to declare final victory. Iran posted pictures of one its most famous military leaders in a Syrian border town, indicating Iranian-backed forces had driven the terror group out of the country.

Combine, the two statements from the two leaders amount to long-awaited news: ISIS's territory in Iraq and Syria is gone; the terror group has been defeated.

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WNU Editor: As a semi-functional government with territory and a somewhat functional military force ....yes .... ISIS has been militarily defeated in Iraq and Syria. As an ideology .... definitely not.

What Should The West Do With Returning ISIS Fighters

Syrian Democratic Forces furl an Islamic State flag recovered in Raqqa, Syria, October 4, 2017. Photo: Reuters/Erik De Castro

Alexander Smith and Vladimir Banic, NBC: What Should the West Do With Fighters Returning From Syria and Iraq?

PRISTINA, Kosovo — Albert Berisha is both a paradox and a dilemma.

His lilac shirt, soft features and neatly trimmed beard could belong to any office worker in the world.

He certainly doesn't look like someone who swapped his life in Europe to go fight in Syria alongside ISIS militants he openly describes as murderous psychopaths.

But Berisha is also the embodiment of some crucial questions perplexing Western security officials.

Is it possible for a jihadi who traveled to fight in Iraq or Syria to be peacefully reintegrated into society? And how can any government be certain such returnees won't kill in the name of Islam?

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WNU Editor: Europeans are not the only ones who are going to have a problem with returning ISIS fighters .... Fall of Raqqa inflames Southeast Asia terror threat (John McBeth, Asia Times)

What Comes Next After The Islamic State Has Been Defeated?

Greg Myre, NPR: The U.S. Is Beating Back ISIS, So What Comes Next?

President Trump said he would let his generals manage the fight against the Islamic State. And so far, he's done that.

The U.S. and its coalition partners carried out more than 5,000 airstrikes in Syria and Iraq combined in August. That's the highest monthly figure since the air campaign began three years ago.

Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, with the Council on Foreign Relations, visited the front line of the Syrian war last month in Raqqa, where the U.S. and its allies are pounding the Islamic State in its last major stronghold.

"What we saw in Raqqa was absolute devastation. And we met families who fled ISIS and got caught in the coalition air strikes," said Lemmon.

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WNU Editor: I do not sense any reconciliation in the air to find a road-path for peace. And while there is war fatigue .... the underlying sectarian tensions that produced this conflict are still there. This could all erupt again ten years from now.

Is The Islamic State Broke?

A man purported to be the reclusive leader of the militant Islamic State Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi making what would have been his first public appearance, at a mosque in the centre of Iraq's second city, Mosul, according to a video recording posted on the Internet on... REUTERS/Social Media Website via Reuters TV/File Photo

Itai Zehorai, Forbes: Is ISIS Bankrupt?

While remaining one of the biggest threats to the world, ISIS has suffered a loss of territory and is in financial decline.

Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS’s founder and spiritual leader, knew exactly what he was doing when he chose to make his first (and only) public appearance on video in the A-Nur Mosque in Mosul in July, 2014. During his notorious sermon at the Friday prayer in the ancient, mosque's marbled pulpit, the father of ISIS proclaimed the establishment of the first Islamic caliphate since 1924. Al-Baghadi, a long-time terrorist in the blood-soaked arena of the Middle East, with a deep sense of history and a killer instinct for public relations, scored a complete knockout in the fight for minds with a triumphant narrative.

Within days, his image at the mosque burned itself into the collective consciousness as the most symbolic event of ISIS’s sweeping victory in Iraq, and evincing the vicious terrorist organization's apex of power - the same murderous organization destined in the years to come to sow fear and dread among millions across the globe; and to write a new, dark chapter in the short history of the 21st century.

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WNU editor: This author`s analysis is spot on ....

.... As this article goes to press, the organization stands beaten and destitute. The pressure on it from the coalition and the big powers continues to grow. Some optimistic experts now predict that the Islamic state will cease to exist by the end of the year. But even if “the end of the fake ISIS state,” as al-Abadi has termed it, is closer than ever – the idea itself is very much alive and still beats strong in a multitude of hearts. The terrorist state that it built has in truth no real borders and its great achievement (all too tragically) is measured not by the territories that it captured but by the minds that it conquered, and even if the jihadist organization has been defeated, the idea of jihad is far from beaten.

The Islamic State In Iraq Is Morphing Into A Sunni Insurgency

MUHAMMAD HAMED/REUTERS

Daily Beast: Where ISIS In Iraq Will Make Its Last Stand—or Its Comeback

The so-called Islamic State remains in control of three strategic towns while other fighters have retreated to the mountains, and sleeper cells operate at the gates of Baghdad.

BAGHDAD—The Iraqi government declared victory against the extremist Islamic State group in Mosul this month, and that was cause for major celebration.

But the extremists are far from eradicated in Iraq. Several strongholds remain. And the battle to push the so-called Islamic State, or ISIS, out of these places will be more complicated than the previous, straightforward fights have been in places like Fallujah and Tikrit.

Notably, the stalemate between Turkey and Iran in this area poses a serious political challenge for the Iraqi government in the remaining cities controlled by ISIS.

At the same time, many extremists have taken to the hills and begun to wage a classic rural guerrilla war, while some sleeper cells have been activated at the very gates of Baghdad, the Iraqi capital.

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WNU Editor: Bottom line .... the war against the Islamic State is far from over.

The Islamic State Does Not Follow The Rules Of War

An Iraqi woman carrying an infant flees from the Old City of Mosul on July 5, 2017, during the Iraqi government forces' offensive to retake the city from ISIS fighters. Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP 

Micah Halpern, Observer: Rules of War? ISIS Doesn’t Care.

The first rule of war—avoiding civilian casualties—is the terror group’s primary attack strategy.

General Sherman famously proclaimed, “War is hell!” as Atlanta burned to the ground during the Civil War. Imagine what he would have said had he met ISIS fighters, who take war to a new low.

ISIS does not subscribe to the fundamental rules of war. When ISIS fights, they entirely discard morality.

As the battle over Mosul draws to an end, it is increasingly clear that ISIS has fallen. The last ISIS fighters desperately cling to the capital of their caliphate. But suspicions among the Iraqi military have risen: Are the people still fighting for ISIS’ cause in Mosul ISIS fighters? Likely not. Are they trained ISIS fighters? Again, likely not.

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WNU Editor: The same can be said about Al Qaeda, Al Nusra, Boko Haram, The Taliban, etc. ....

Why The Fall Of Raqqa And Mosul Will Not Spell The End For The Islamic State

A police officer searches a man at a checkpoint in central Baghdad. (Photo: REUTERS - Saad Shalash)

Patrick Cockburn, The Independent: Fall of Raqqa and Mosul will not spell the end for Isis - only a new beginning

The desperate state of both Syria and Iraq's armies means there is no realistic prospect of either country defeating their extremist insurgencies for good.

When Lionel Messi scored a last minute winning goal for Barcelona against Real Madrid on 23 April, football fans in the Syrian coastal city of Tartous who had been watching the game on television rushed into the street to celebrate.

This turned out to be a mistake from their point of view because many of the jubilant fans were men of military age, whom the Syrian security forces promptly detained in order to find out if they were liable for military service. It is unknown how many were conscripted but, once in the army, they will have difficulty getting out and there is a high chance they will be killed or injured.

Military service and ways of avoiding it are staples of conversation in Syria where government, Kurds and insurgents are all looking for soldiers after six years of relentless war. Casualties have been heavy with pro-government forces alone losing an estimated 112,000 dead since 2011 according to the pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. In theory, men can escape conscription if they are the only son of a family or are studying at university, but even then they are not entirely safe from being arbitrarily drafted.

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WNU Editor: Sadly .... Patrick Cockburn is probably right.

Will President Trump Defeat The Islamic State?

U.S. President Donald Trump signs a memorandum to security services directing them to defeat the Islamic State in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, Jan. 28, 2017.

Andrew Exum, The Atlantic: Donald Trump Will Defeat ISIS

And it will be mostly due to the work of his predecessor.

The dysfunction at the highest levels of the American government right now obscures a dramatic reality: Donald Trump is going to defeat the Islamic State, and Americans need to be fine with that.

Like most of the people reading this, I have been so completely absorbed by the drama at the White House over the past week that its been easy to lose track of what’s taking place on the ground in the Middle East, where U.S. troops, diplomats, and intelligence professionals continue to work by, with, and through local forces to destroy the Islamic State.

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WNU Editor: President's always take the claim when there is a victory or a success .... especially on the battlefield. President Obama took credit for the withdrawal of U.S. forces out of Iraq during the first term of his Presidency .... and he took credit for the take-down of Osama Bin Laden. I expect the same will be coming from President Trump .... such is the Office of the Presidency. But the big war .... the war against radical Islam that preaches violence and intolerance .... that is going to be a decades long conflict. And when that war is finally over .... it will probably end with a whimper that will only be noticed by a few. And will a future U.S. President take credit for that .... I would not bet against it.

Is The Battle For Mosul Going To Be The First Crisis For President Trump?

Patrick Cockburn, The Independent: Iraqi troops are getting bogged down in Mosul – Could it spark the first crisis for President Trump?

Kurdish leaders are warning that what could have taken weeks is likely to drag on for months - posing problems for the US-led coalition and especially its incoming Commander-in-Chief.

The Iraqi armed forces are becoming bogged down in the battle for Mosul. Its elite special forces and an armoured division are fighting to hold districts in the eastern outskirts of the city against counter-attacks by Isis fighters using networks of tunnels to move about unseen.

“In one day we lost 37 dead and 70 wounded,” said a former senior Iraqi official, adding that the Iraqi forces had been caught by surprise by the extent of the tunnel system built by Isis, said to be 45 miles long.

The Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS) and the Ninth Armoured Division have been trying for two weeks to fight their way into that part of Mosul city, east of the Tigris River.

Isis is sending waves of suicide bombers either as individuals who blow themselves up or in vehicles packed with explosives, snipers and mortar teams, to restart the fighting in a dozen districts that the Iraqi Army had said were already captured.

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WNU Editor: I do not think that the campaign to retake Mosul will be President Trump's first crisis .... but I do agree with Patrick Cockburn in the above post and Oliver North (in the above video) that this battle is going to last a long time .... probably until the spring of 2017.

Is This The Last Days Of The Caliphate?

The Economist: Islamic State’s messianic apocalypse is postponed

But the defeat of the jihadist group in the real world might revive realism among Sunnis.

THE fate of a small rural town in northern Syria might seem inconsequential when faced with a multinational assault on the group’s main stronghold, Mosul. But few places were more central to the image of Islamic State (IS). The jihadists lauded Dabiq as the locus, as cited in an obscure Hadith, or saying of the Prophet Muhammad, of the battle of the end of days; in their vision it would host an apocalyptic showdown between the self-styled caliphate’s faithful and Western crusaders. It named its glossy English-language e-zine after the town, and beheaded its victims, like Peter Kassig, an American aid worker, in its foothills. As the day of reckoning approached, observers reported that IS had fortified Dabiq with 1,200 fighters.

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WNU Editor: If this is the last days of the Caliphate, their supporters are certainly not showing it .... Islamic State takes control of half Iraqi town near Jordan-Syria border: sources (Reuters).

The Islamic State Prepares To Fight The Next War

A member of militias known as Hashid Shaabi stands next to a wall painted with the black flag commonly used by ISIS militants, in the town of al-Alam March 10, 2015. Iraqi troops and militias drove Islamic State insurgents out of al-Alam, clearing a major hurdle before a planned assault on Saddam Hussein's home city of Tikrit. THAIER AL-SUDANI/REUTERS

Bill Powell, Newsweek: As ISIS's Caliphate Crumbles, Jihadist Tactics Are Evolving

On June 10, 2014, the day the black flag of the Islamic State militant group went up over the city of Mosul in northern Iraq, life for an ISIS fighter was good. The seizure of a city of nearly 2 million showed that ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was making good on his claim to set up a “caliphate” across a vast swath of the Middle East. Foreign fighters flocked to a group once famously mocked by President Barack Obama as the “JV team.” And why not? After taking Mosul, ISIS fighters were paid $500 a month and given a cellphone and a car. Amid the deepening chaos in the Middle East, Daesh, as the group is called in Arabic, had emerged as the strong horse.

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WNU Editor:I agree with the last sentence of this report ....

.... In early 2013, on his last day as acting head of the CIA, Michael Morell told Obama, who came to office wanting to end wars, “My children’s generation and my grandchildren’s generation will still be fighting this fight.”

Is The Islamic Satte Becoming More Dangerous As It's Defeat On The Battlefield Becomes More Likely?

A member of Iraqi army stands near weapons that belonged to Islamic State militants, at an Iraqi army base in Camp Tariq near Falluja, Iraq, September 4, 2016. REUTERS/Khalid al Mousily

Mohamad Bazzi, Reuters: Islamic State is becoming more dangerous as it weakens

By many measures, Islamic State is a weakened and demoralized force. After months of U.S.-led bombing and defeats by local troops in Iraq and Syria, the group lost thousands of its fighters, was forced to relinquish significant territory and has been cut off from routes it used to move weapons and reinforcements.

But the group remains a potent threat in other ways, especially in its ability to inspire self-radicalized militants to carry out attacks in the West and elsewhere.

The man accused of carrying out a bombing in New York on Sept. 17 appears to have been inspired – if not directed – by the leaders and ideologues of al Qaeda and Islamic State. The 28-year-old suspect, Ahmad Rahami, wrote admiringly in a journal about al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, American-born radical Islamic preacher Anwar al-Awlaki – who was killed in Yemen by a U.S. drone strike – and leading Islamic State strategist Abu Mohammad al-Adnani.

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WNU Editor: I disagree with this analysis. If the Islamic State could .... it would unleash all the terror attacks possible against the West. But it cannot, and as it weakens its capabilities of doing so will weaken also.