Deteriorating Russian - Turkish Relations Is Raising tensions In The Caucasus

John Dyer, VICE News: The Bad Blood Between Russia and Turkey Is Spreading to Armenia and Azerbaijan

Escalating tensions between Russia and Turkey have spread to the Caucasus, a volatile region where both powers have long contested each other's influence.

After Turkish jets shot down a Russian warplane that allegedly flew into Turkish airspace last week, a Cold War-style war of words erupted between Ankara and Moscow. Turkey has refused to apologize for the incident, while Russia has blocked sales of tourism packages to Turkey, imposed sanctions on Turkish fruits and vegetables, and accused Turkey of buying oil from the Islamic State.

Now the two sides are squaring off over the ongoing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two tiny former Soviet republics that have been at loggerheads since a six-year war over an ethnic Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan called Nagorno-Karabakh ended in 1994.

Update: Turkey-Russia Conflict Divides South Caucasus (Giorgi Lomsadze, Eurasianet.org)

WNU Editor: The Ottoman - Tsarist wars gripped this region for centuries (17th to the 20th century) .... the possibility that these same conflicts may return with a vengeance is disturbing in every-way. And while I am confident that this will not happen .... the history in the region should give everyone pause.

War Clouds In The Caucasus -- A Commentary

The North Caucasus region is the part of Russia that slopes up towards the main ridge of the Caucasus mountains, often considered the border between Europe and Asia. It is home to dozens of nationalities and languages, many of which have troubled relationships with their neighbours or with central governments in Moscow or Tbilisi. Image from The BBC

From The Wall Street Journal:

Putin's strategy has not brought peace.

One of the biggest myths perpetrated by Vladimir Putin’s propaganda machine is that during his 10-year rule over Russia, the former president and current prime minister succeeded in “pacifying” the North Caucasus. Nothing could be further from the truth. What we are witnessing today is the start of the third Caucasus war in 15 years, following the two Chechen wars of 1994 and 1999.

Read more .....

My Comment: The Caucasus have always been been a region that has been violent and unstable. It took the Soviet Communists in the early 20th century over a decade to pacify the region .... and they were far more brutal in their tactics than what is being done today.

Present day Russian policy in the region is making a very bad situation worse. Aligning themselves with warlords will/and is backfiring on them .... as well as being coupled the with systemic corruption and grievances that goes back generations in this entire region. This is a no win situation that will produce no winners when finished.

What do I expect? .... I expect more of the same. The Russians are not going to leave, and the many competing groups in the region will continue their low-level insurgency.