Fossil Fuels Will Be With Us For A Long Time

Peter Tertzakian, Financial Post: The world is not spending enough money to put fossil fuel out of business — and it probably never will

It’s time to close the spreadsheets and think differently about the world of energy.

A couple of weeks ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released their 176-page report titled, World Energy Investment 2019. I will spare you the read and take you to a quote, buried on page 30 that pretty much sums up what most analysts in the business already know: “Energy investment is misaligned with where the world appears to be heading…”

Energy investment is misaligned with where the world appears to be heading
IEA

The gap between what we perceive, what we aspire to, and what is reality is already wider than the Pacific Ocean. And it’s getting wider. I look at all the numbers, read all the reports — including the IEA’s most recent — and the reality is clear: Investment into renewables has plateaued at best; energy efficiency is treading water; and the proportion of primary energy sources in the world mix — coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear power, hydro and renewables — is barely changing.

Despite all the fire alarms to decarbonize and use less energy, investment dollars into these objectives hasn’t budged much in a decade.

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WNU Editor: Bottom line. World demand for energy will continue to rise in the coming decades, and fossil fuels will be an integral part of it .... climate change or not.

Is The U.S. About To Redraw The World's Oil And Gas Landscape?

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph: US to launch blitz of gas exports, eyes global energy dominance

The US Energy Department prepares a wave of LNG gas permits in the latest move to redraw the world's oil and gas landscape.

The United States is poised to flood world markets with once-unthinkable quantities of liquefied natural gas as soon as this year, profoundly changing the geo-politics of global energy and posing a major threat to Russian gas dominance in Europe.

"We anticipate becoming big players, and I think we'll have a big impact," said the Ernest Moniz, the US Energy Secretary. "We're going to influence the whole global LNG market."

Mr Moniz said four LNG export terminals are under construction and the first wave of shipments may begin before the end of this year or in early 2016 at the latest.

WNU Editor: A good review on today's energy markets and what the future may hold. A must read.

Are We Sleepwalking To A Global Energy Crisis?

US Army Colonel: World Is Sleepwalking To A Global Energy Crisis -- Nafeez Ahmed, The Guardian

Senior figures from industry, military and politics explore risks of financial chaos, oil depletion and climate catastrophe

A conference sponsored by a US military official convened experts in Washington DC and London warning that continued dependence on fossil fuels puts the world at risk of an unprecedented energy crunch that could inflame financial crisis and exacerbate dangerous climate change.

The 'Transatlantic Energy Security Dialogue', which took place on 10th December last year, was co-organised by a US Army official, Lieutenant Colonel Daniel L. Davis, operating in a private capacity, in association with former petroleum geologist Jeremy Leggett, covener of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security.

Participants, who addressed one another via video link, consisted of retired military officers, security experts, senior industry executives, and politicians from the main parties - including two former UK ministers. According to US Army colonel Daniel Davis, a veteran of four tours of duty in Afghanistan and Iraq, and regular contributor to the Armed Forces Journal:

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My Comment: I have been hearing these fears for my entire life .... and here is an easy prediction .... I will still be hearing them 20, 30, or (if I am lucky to be still around) 40 years from now.

The Rise Of ‘Saudi America’

Rise Of ‘Saudi America’ Will Alter Globe, Prolong U.S. Superpower Role -- Tim Johnson, McClatchy Foreign Staff

MEXICO CITY — For the past 40 years, U.S. presidents have launched distant wars, allied with autocratic sheikhs and dispatched naval fleets to protect sea lanes, all for the imperative of keeping foreign oil spigots flowing.

That imperative has now subsided. Rather suddenly, the center of gravity of global energy production has swung toward the Americas as shale oil and gas fields in North Dakota and Texas hum with activity. America is moving to the fore as the world’s largest producer of petroleum and natural gas.

That change will reorder the globe in ways large and small.

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My Comment: The center of gravity of global energy production has definitely swung toward the Americas as shale oil and gas fields in North Dakota and Texas expand. And while I do believe that this is only temporary .... oil reserves will eventually be depleted .... for the foreseeable future this is a welcome development.

Future Revolutions Will Be Because Of High Fuel Prices

Why Global Fuel Prices Will Spark the Next Revolutions -- Vivienne Walt, Time

While the demonstrators that have mobbed the streets of Amman for two weeks now are demanding the overthrown of King Abdullah — a criminal offense in Jordan — it’s not the demand for democracy that sparked their protests. Instead, thousands of Jordanians have been spurred to act by a more basic issue: the rising price of gas after the government withdrew its subsidies.

Jordanians are hardly alone in their anger. Governments across the world are attempting to wean their citizens off subsidized fossil fuels —a critical issue which environmentalists say is a big contributor to the output of carbon gases that contribute to global warming, and which have even more immediately burdened public finances the world over by an estimated total of $523 billion last year — a 30% increase over the previous year.

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My Comment: Food is the major factor behind revolutions .... at least according to these researchers.

Will Shale Gas Fracking Reshape America's Role In The World?

How Cheap Energy From Shale Will Reshape America's Role In The World -- Julian Borger and Larry Elliott, The Guardian

US self-sufficiency in energy is likely to end American reliance on despotic Gulf regimes but biggest loser of all may be Russia.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the rise of China and the Arab spring, American energy independence looks likely to trigger the next great geopolitical shift in the modern world.

US reliance on the Gulf for its oil – and its consequent need to maintain a dominant presence in the Middle East to keep the oil flowing – has been one of the constants of the post-1945 status quo. That could be turned on its head.

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Update: Shale gas fracking – the facts and figures -- The Guardian

My Comment: Just not sending out hundreds of billions of dollars for energy to the likes of OPEC and Russia will make a big difference. But energy fracking is still new, and I am sure that there will be more obstacles to overcome before it becomes an acceptable standard in the industry.

The Impact On World Geopolitics As The Energy Picture Changes In Favor Of The West

How Is Energy Remaking the World? -- Daniel Yergin, Foreign Policy

To navigate the complicated new politics of oil and gas, FP asked the author of The Quest and leading U.S. energy historian to help shape our latest survey -- and guide us through the results.

The outlook for the U.S. energy supply is very different from what it was just four years ago, the last time oil prices were going up -- and the last time Americans were electing a president. Back then, it seemed the only questions were how fast oil imports would continue to rise and whether the United States was destined to import increasing amounts of natural gas. But the years since have seen an astonishing revival in U.S. oil and gas production, and with it a change in the national conversation about energy. In the presidential campaign ahead, the debate over America's energy policy is likely to be very different from years past.

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My Comment: A rather good post on how the world's energy picture is changing.

U. S. Needs Alberta's Oil Sands -- A Commentary

From The National Post:

Russia behaves like a goon toward its European energy customers; Saudi Arabia, Iran and others export terrorism; Nigeria is unstable and Venezuela's Hugo Chavez spews hatred. All of which means there is little choice for the United States and the world but to embrace, and possibly finance, Alberta's oil sands.

If Washington does not get it, then Japan, India, China, South Korea and other energy-starved nations will. They should be encouraged to finance the oil sands megaprojects that have been put on ice or axed because of the bank crisis and price collapse.

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Obama Plan Would Weaken Energy Security -- A Commentary

From Homeland Security Today:

Would deal crippling blow to independent energy companies

Last August, the “Kimery Report” published a two-part series that investigated not just the growing threats to US energy security, but efforts by congressional Democrats to pass legislation that would impair domestic drilling, according to numerous authorities, thereby increasing the US’s reliance on foreign oil – in and of itself a clear and present danger to national and homeland security by nearly all accounts.

While campaigning for president, Sen. Barack Obama openly supported Hill Democrats' baseless bill. Then, when Democrats were unable to pass the legislation, little more about it was heard from Obama. That was until mid-October when his election seemed cinched.

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