Is An Armed Conflict Possible In Today's Europe?

Family members seek to identify their fallen relatives in Crimea in 1942. Dmitri Baltermants

Dirk Kurbjuweit, Spiegel Online: Is Armed Conflict Possible in Today's Europe?

Europe has been largely peaceful since the end of World War II. The shock of that conflict was simply too great. But with memories of the violence now fading and nationalism on the rise, it is far from certain that peace will remain the status quo.

"The war changed everything." This statement by the late British historian Tony Judt contains the kernel of modern-day Europe. It was the war that made possible an extended period of peace. Things had to get extremely bad before they could get good again. For the last 75 years, there has been peace on the Continent, with just a few exceptions.

Now, this Europe finds itself in crisis. It is no longer the Europe where national thinking is slowly dwindling. It is no longer the Europe that is growing together step by step. It is no longer the Europe in which all countries seem to be committed to democracy forever. The direction of European history would seem to have changed - shifting away from convergence and back to delineation.

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WNU Editor: Europe has had wars throughout its history. And while an armed conflict seems remote right now, never say never.

The Decline Of Europe Is The Threat That Should Worry Foreign Policy Specialists

Conrad Black, American Greatness: What’s the Matter With Europe?

For all the flak President Trump gets for insufficient deference to America’s allies, Americans should be aware of the parlous condition of Europe, which long was regarded as the co-equal half of the Western alliance to the United States and Canada.

It does not require a geriatric to recall the piping days when it was commonplace to hear someone announce the coming supremacy of a united Europe. This was a fantasy wedged between the imminent economic surpassing of America by Japan, and then by China. The United States has potential rivals, some less cordial than others, and complacency is always unwise. But the decline of Europe, not its rise, is now the threat that should worry foreign policy specialists.

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WNU Editor: Had lunch this past Saturday with two web developers who immigrated a months ago from Belgium to Canada. When I asked them on why they made the decision to leave, I got nothing but a lecture on how much Europe has declined in the past few years. And protests in France, Brexit, and Germany's dysfunctional political system is just the tip of the iceberg. They also gave me a prediction on Europe's future. Bottom line .... it is going to get worse.

Is Europe 'Coming Apart Before Our Eyes'?

A view of the Place de la Republique as protesters wearing yellow vests gather during a national day of protest by the "yellow vests" movement in Paris, France, December 8, 2018. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe

The Guardian: Europe 'coming apart before our eyes', say 30 top intellectuals

Group of historians and writers publish manifesto warning against rise of populism.

Liberal values in Europe face a challenge “not seen since the 1930s”, leading intellectuals from 21 countries have said, as the UK lurches towards Brexit and nationalists look set to make sweeping gains in EU parliamentary elections.

The group of 30 writers, historians and Nobel laureates declared in a manifesto published in several newspapers, including the Guardian, that Europe as an idea was “coming apart before our eyes”.

“We must now will Europe or perish beneath the waves of populism,” the document reads. “We must rediscover political voluntarism or accept that resentment, hatred and their cortege of sad passions will surround and submerge us.”

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WNU Editor: Brexit. Protests throughout France on every Saturday. Greece's debt crisis now in year eight. Eastern Europe refusing to abide by EU rules on settling migrants from Africa and the Middle East. The election of a conservative government in Italy. High youth unemployment throughout most of Europe. The impossibility of a young family to make enough to buy a home. This blog is not big enough to list all the reasons on why the EU is falling apart, and how the elites have failed it citizens. Europe as we know it is changing, and it should surprise no one.

The Future Of The EU After Merkel

Merkel at the European Union summit in Brussels in June. (Reuters photo: Gonzalo Fuentes)

Douglas Murray, The Spectator: Angela Merkel is on her way out – and so is her vision for the EU

Whatever anyone’s views on the enterprise, there was one question always begging to be asked of the European Union: ‘What do you want to be when you grow up?’ At an early stage it wasn’t clear to everyone. Then the purpose and direction of travel seemed agreed — under the stewardship of Angela Merkel. She was there to settle disputes, authorise bailouts, offer German help to struggling nations and protect the project as it led to ever-closer union. Whatever else can be said of it, with Merkel at the helm at least the EU appeared to have direction. Not anymore.

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WNU Editor: The above post is a comprehensive article about what went wrong with the “EU Vision”, and what may happen when Angela Merkel is gone. A definite must read.

Can Europe Defend Itself?

© AFP 2016/ CHRISTOF STACHE

Mike Scrafton, The Strategist/RCD: Can the Europeans Defend Europe?

A renewed sense of urgency over European defence has come only after a cumulative series of strategic shocks. The European powers have long resisted supranational defence institutions, instead depending heavily on NATO and the US. Prior to 1989, Western European and US strategic interests converged as the trans-Atlantic powers faced a hostile Soviet Union. After the Cold War, the Europeans failed to assume responsibility for the peace and security of their own continent. Can they now?

Europe’s buoyant post–Cold War mood was shattered by the brutal Bosnian War (1992–1995), Russia’s employment of force in Georgia (1991–1993), and then war in Kosovo (1998–1999). Those shocks catalysed an intense turn-of-the-century debate over Europe’s capacity to manage its own security affairs. Impotence over Kosovo, in particular, highlighted the problem, though little actual progress occurred as a result.

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WNU editor:  Europe is more than capable of defending itself. The problem in the past few years is that Europe has been lacking the will to do so. The world is changing .... and Europe better get its "act together".

Why Is Europe Not Preparing For A War With Russia?

Flickr / Department of Defense

Doug Bandow, National Interest: Why Isn't Europe Preparing for a War with Russia?

Three years ago the United States withdrew its combat units from Europe. Now it is sending them back, with regular rotations, to deter a Russian attack. Explained Brig. Gen. Timothy Daugherty: “Preparing for war is a lot cheaper than executing one.”

True. But why isn’t Europe doing the preparing?

During the Cold War the United States had about three hundred thousand troops in Europe. That number was down to 65,000 a couple years ago. Even so, that was too many: the continent long ago should have graduated from America’s defense dole. Yet the North Atlantic Treaty Organization had extended up to Russia’s borders and was threatening to add Georgia and Ukraine, former territories within the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. From Moscow’s perspective, NATO continued to play the containment game, only up to Russia’s borders and into its former heartland.

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WNU Editor:  Same reason why Russia is not planning to invade Europe .... it is not going to happen.

Will The EU And The Entire West Alliance Collapse By 2040?

Sunday Express: Shock German Army report predicts collapse of EU and entire West alliance by 2040

THE complete disintegration of the European Union (EU) and the West over the next two decades is a serious proposition, according to a shock internal report drawn up by the German Army.

An extensive 102-page report, called ‘Strategic Forecast 2040’ was published by the head of the Ministry of Defence at the end of February this year but was kept then kept under wraps, but has now been seen by the German weekly newspaper Der Spiegel.

The report outlines six scenarios for how social trends and international conflicts are likely to play out and influence German security.

The Bundeswehr plays out how social trends and international conflicts could influence German security policy in the coming decades in the confidential document.

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WNU Editor: I am skeptical of this German Army report. Too many people are vested in the EU, and the alternatives are not appetizing for most Europeans. What I predict will be an evolution into something different .... probably a more decentralized EU.

A Breakdown On Europe's Pro-Independence Movements

WNU Editor: This Guardian post has a good breakdown on Europe's pro-independence movements. The link is here .... Beyond Catalonia: pro-independence movements in Europe (The Guardian).

These Are The Regions In Europe That Have An Independence Movements (Map)

(Click on Image to Enlarge)

Will Martin, The Independent/Business Insider: This map shows the European regions fighting to achieve independence

Britain's vote to leave the European Union is almost certainly one of the most seismic political events in the Western world in the last handful of decades.

It marked the first time any nation had decided to leave the European alliance, first formed in the 1960s and promptly sparked some commentators to suggest that other nations could follow Britain out of the bloc in the coming years.

While Britain leaving the EU is undoubtedly the biggest split we're likely to witness in Europe in the coming, there are movements across Europe that could end up physically separating entire nations.

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WNU Editor: Taken from this perspective, the EU does not look very unified.

According To Europeans, These Are The Top 10 Threats Facing Europe

A man carries a EU flag, after Britain voted to leave the European Union, outside Downing Street in London, Britain June 24, 2016.Neil Hall/Reuters

Michelle Mark, Business Insider: The top 10 threats facing Europe, according to Europeans

Europeans are largely in agreement on the top threats that face the European Union — and if you've been following the news as of late, you can probably guess what they are.

Eurobarometer published a report in August showing that despite ongoing concerns like rising inflation and member states' finances, economic issues aren't necessarily at the top of most Europeans' lists of fears.

The survey was carried out in late May, and EU citizens were asked to identify the two most important issues facing the EU at the moment.

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WNU Editor: I agree with the order of this list. Hmmmm .... no mention of Russia and east-west tensions.

Will Europe Help South Korea And Japan In A Korean War?

British PM Theresa May visited Japan earlier this week

Julian Ryall, DW: North Korea threat: Will Europe help South Korea, Japan militarily?

While the EU is in agreement on N. Korea sanctions, it is less clear if European nations would commit militarily to the region should tensions worsen to the point at which fighting breaks out. Julian Ryall reports.

On her three-day state visit to Japan this week, British Prime Minister Theresa May made her position on North Korea's continued aggressions toward its immediate neighbors quite clear: May told her Japanese hosts she was "outraged" by Pyongyang's "reckless provocations."

May arrived in Japan one day after North Korea fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile over the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido, prompting emergency warnings and public concern. Pyongyang had earlier threatened to launch ballistic missiles into waters close to the Pacific island of Guam, a US territory that hosts a key military base.

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WNU Editor: I can see the EU giving public support for South Korea and Japan in a war .... and some may even commit resources and monies. But committing soldiers .... no. Case in point is Germany. If Germany was not interested in participating in the Libyan military campaign against Qaddafi, why would they be interested in participating in a military campaign on the other side of the world. Same for the other countries in the EU .... all EU countries are stretched, becoming involved in a major Korean war will have very little (if any) public support, and definitely no political support.

Is Europe Boosting Defense Spending?

REUTERS/Danilo Krstanovic

Kaitlin Lavinder, Cipher Brief: Europe Is Boosting Defense Spending – And It’s Not All About Trump

America’s commitment to European security is up in the air under the Trump Administration, raising the question, will Europeans have to take more responsibility for their own defense?

Europe must “take our fate into our own hands,” said German Chancellor Angela Merkel after President Donald Trump’s visit to Europe last month.

Trump, at a NATO heads of state meeting on May 25, noticeably did not reaffirm America’s commitment to Article 5, NATO’s collective defense clause that says an attack on one is an attack on all. His cozying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin and allegations of Russia’s interference in the U.S. presidential election to help get Trump elected do not sit well with the Europeans. As Russia’s western neighbors, they are acutely aware of the damage Russian meddling can cause in places like Ukraine and the Baltics.

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WNU Editor: Like the Canadian government's announcement yesterday that they are going to increase defense spending .... Canada To Boost Its Military Budget By 70% Over The Next Decade (June 7, 2017) .... these commitments to spend more are just promises on what they will be spending in the far future .... that is if they are in power and if economic conditions permit. In the case of Europe .... as long as I can remember the Europeans have always had discussions on being more responsible for their own security .... that is until they are faced with the bill. I expect the same thing to happen no .... all talk but really no action.

Is There A Risk Of War Returning To Europe?

Poland's 6th Airborne Brigade soldiers (R) walk with U.S. 82nd Airborne Division soldiers during the NATO allies' Anakonda 16 exercise near Torun, Poland, June 7, 2016. REUTERS/KACPER PEMPEL

Peter Apps, Reuters: Risk of war returns to Europe

A century ago this weekend, my great-grandfather – a corporal in the Liverpool-recruited King’s Regiment – was waiting to go “over-the-top” at the Somme.

Sent to pick up the company rum ration before the assault, he wound up drinking it and woke up after the action – or at least, that’s the story he told the family after World War One was over.

Perhaps his superiors were in an unusually forgiving mood. Or perhaps, like many others, he was just looking for a way to avoid retelling his experiences. By the end of the first day, the Allies had suffered almost 60,000 casualties for precious little ground. By the time the offensive was canceled later in the year, there were more than 800,000, over half of them fatalities.

With the two world wars increasingly passing from living memory, it’s becoming easier to forget just how much they dominated the lives of almost every family on the continent.

Quietly, though, that is changing. When NATO states meet in Warsaw at the end of the week for the annual heads of government meeting of the alliance, they will be doing so amid the most serious tensions with Moscow since 1989.

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WNU Editor: There is already a war in Europe .... and that is in eastern Ukraine. It is also this war that has brought European and Russian relations to where they are today .... and if one wants to
de-escalate tensions, the best place to start is finding and implementing a settlement in this conflict. Unfortunately .... the focus for this week's NATO summit is anything but finding a peaceful settlement to the Ukraine conflict .... in fact they are searching for a means to escalate it.

Will The Russian Economy Collapse?

Russian rubles. Wikimedia Commons/Petar Milošević

Sergey Aleksashenko, National Interest: Is Russia's Economy Doomed to Collapse?

Putin must undertake serious reforms to keep the country competitive.

“Russia is isolated with its economy in tatters,” said President Obama in his State of the Union address on January 20, 2015. At that time, many thought it was true: the Russian currency was in free fall, while the federal budget was losing its revenues and beginning to extensively rely on reserves accumulated in previous years, and so many experts predicted the collapse of the Russian economy—an economic decline of 10 percent or more, comparable to the 2008–09 crisis. But though the Russian economy plunged into a crisis and could not halt its decline for six consecutive quarters, the real scale of the economic shocks was significantly smaller. The fall in GDP was 3.7 percent in 2015, and most experts foresee a drop of around 1 percent in 2016. Oil prices’ rebound from their nadir allowed the ruble not only to stabilize, but to gain a foothold. A 10 percent fall in private consumption has not led to any visible increase in social tension.

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WNU Editor: The Russian economy needs reform .... correction .... a lot of reform. But collapse .... not in the foreseeable future. If there is an economy that we should be worried about, it is this one .... U.S. National debt jumps nearly $100 billion in one day to record high (Washington Examiner).

Greece Is Not The Only European Country 'Drowning' In Debt

The Telegraph: European debt crisis: It's not just Greece that's drowning in debt

With Greece drowning in debt and facing exit from the eurozone, we had a look at how the other EU countries are coping with their debt .

While the eyes of the world are on Greece and its potential default on its debt, there are several other countries in the EU that have debts to rival the struggling nation.

Altogether there are six European nations whose debts are larger than their economic output, and 16 that have debts larger than the 60%-of-GDP limit set out in the Maastricht Treaty.

Greece’s public debt is, unsurprisingly, the highest in the EU - standing at 177% of its GDP. Italy and Portugal are the next most indebted countries, with debts of 132% and 130% of national economic output respectively.

WNU Editor: This is a heads-up on the European countries that may be impacted next by high debts and the unwillingness and/or inability to pay them.

U.S. Nuclear Missiles Returning To Europe?

In recent weeks, there has been growing concern about arms tensions between Russia and NATO. Washington is now considering stationing troops and equipment in Germany in response to Russian military rearmament. Here, Russian surface-to-air missiles at a military parade in Moscow. DPA

Spiegel Online: Cold War Resurgent: US Nukes Could Soon Return to Europe

Washington is once again talking about stationing nuclear warheads in Europe. Russia, too, is turning up the rhetoric. Europeans are concerned about becoming caught in the middle of a new Cold War.

It's been more than three decades since the vast peace protests took over Bonn's Hofgarten meadow in the early 1980s. Back then, about half a million protesters pushed their way into the city center, a kilometer-long mass of people moving through the streets. It was the biggest rally in the history of the German Federal Republic.

Today, the situation isn't quite that fraught, but it seems feasible that a similar scene may soon play out in front of the Chancellery in Berlin. For some time now, the Americans have once again been thinking about upgrading Europe's nuclear arsenal, and in the past week, a rhetorical arms race has begun that is reminiscent of the coldest periods of the Cold War.

Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier warned of an "accelerating spiral of escalating words and then of actions." He described them as "the old reflexes of the Cold War."

WNU Editor: The last thing that Europe and the world needs right now is a nuclear arms race. Unfortunately .... the trends are ominous, something that even Russian President Putin is now trying to downplay even though his own nuclear actions have aggravated the situation.... World no closer to Cold War-style nuclear standoff, Putin tells global media chiefs (RT).

The Growth Of 'Islamic Mini-States' In France Is A Growing Trend

People gather to pay tribute at the Place Royal in Nantes January 7, 2015, following a shooting by gunmen at the Paris offices of weekly satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo. Credit: REUTERS/Stephane Mahe

Washington Times: Muslims segregated from French society in growing Islamist mini-states

WNU Editor: The establishment of ghettos based on religion/culture/race is nothing new in Europe .... in fact .... this has been the case throughout European history. Jews, Gypsies, other ethnic/sectarian groups .... throughout European history these many groups established ghettos and regions that they congregated in, did business in, and started families and communities. This Islamic wave is just another wave .... but unfortunately .... many within this community have now taken upon themselves to promote a radical and violent interpretation of Jihad that will all but guarantee blow-back and anger from a majority of the citizens within the state that these Islamic communities reside in. This should concern everyone .... especially leaders within the Arab/Muslim community. Europe has a long and bloody history when it comes to treating minorities that it perceives as a threat, and even though we do live in the 21rst century .... no one should ever underestimate the Europeans when it comes to how they may react when they perceive a growing threat on the horizon .... even if it is within their own country.

Could The Ukraine Crisis Spark A European Or World War?

The Guns of April? -- Andrew J. Stravers, National Interest

Secret mobilizations. Attacks with plausible deniability. Unclear alliance commitments. Vague statements of resolve. A battle for neutral parties. Highly provocative military movements. We have seen these events take place in the last few weeks in the crisis in Ukraine. We also saw these same dynamics at play almost exactly one hundred years ago on the eve of World War I.

The major powers of Continental Europe were maneuvering, and the wheels of war creaked into motion. In the coming battle, swift mobilization would be key, but even more important was the commitment of a powerful third party. Britain closely aligned with France, but British policy prioritized a free hand in Continental affairs and did not want to jeopardize the sizable British trade with Germany. No one could be sure where the greatest sea power on Earth would stand.

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My Comment: I have trouble seeing such an event happening in today's Europe. There is no appetite for conflict on both sides of the Atlantic .... from the leadership on down. Even Putin does not want war, and while he is certainly creating the perception that he will go to war to protect Russian minorities in neighboring states .... his actions have been limited and measured (so far).

This crisis has it's origins in Ukraine .... and it is here that the crisis will need to be defused ... starting (I hope) with a newly elected Ukrainian government (in May) that will try to find some political accommodation among Ukrainians and Russians within Ukraine itself. Failing that I can then easily predict a catastrophe for Ukraine .... and accusations that Russia has deployed a a few hundred Russian Special Ops forces in eastern Ukraine will be quickly replaced by multiple reports of thousands of Russian Special ops units and forces flooding eastern and southern Ukraine .... and after that, anything will then be possible.

Are We Entering A New Cold War?

President Barack Obama meets with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at his dacha outside Moscow, Russia, July 7, 2009. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Are US And Russia In New Cold War? -- Andre de Nesnera, Voice of America

WASHINGTON — Relations between the United States and Russia have hit a low point since Moscow annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. Many analysts are wondering whether the two sides are returning to a new Cold War.

The “first” Cold War lasted roughly from the end of World War Two in 1945 to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Charles Kupchan with Georgetown University, said the Cold War was a rivalry between a Western bloc led by the United States and an Eastern bloc led by the Soviet Union.

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My Comment: I lived through the Cold War .... today's differences are nowhere near what it was like then .... not even close. But we are in an era where relations are clearly strained.

The Young And Brightest Are Fleeing Europe

Overqualified And Underpaid -- Daniel Tkatch, The European

Europe’s unemployed youth doesn’t mind a little economic insecurity. What they can’t stand is a chronic atmosphere of political hopelessness. No wonder they are fleeing the continent.

Young people appear to be the social group most affected by the lingering economic crisis of the EU. Around a quarter of them is unemployed. As expected, the situation is the most dramatic in the countries on the European periphery: In Spain 57 per cent of the population below 30 is unable to find a job, according to the most recent Eurostat figures. The worrying list also includes Greece with 58 per cent and Croatia, the Union’s newest member state, with 52 per cent.

Being young, motivated, and well-educated no longer means being on the path for financial independence today. Especially not in Spain, where many ambitious graduates are refused employment on the grounds of being overqualified. The lucky ones might find an unpaid internship or an underpaid, temporary job that scarcely matches their qualifications.

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My Comment: I live in Montreal, Canada .... and I have noticed this wave of young people fleeing Europe to stat anew here. The programmers that I contract my work to left France three years ago together to set up shop in Montreal. Another contact .... a friend who owns a tour company that promotes American school trips to Europe .... has just hired two young and incredibly smart ladies who immigrated from Spain last year. My dentist's dental assistant arrived from Greece when it imploded five years ago. The stories are many .... and increasing. And they all tell me the same thing .... they miss their country of birth .... but they see no hope of the situation improving and they do not want to reside in a country that will spend the next generation or two paying off the horrendous debts that the other generations had accumulated.