Is The Pentagon Planning For A Three-Front ‘Long War’ Against China And Russia?

Michael Klare, Foreign Policy in Focus: The Pentagon Is Planning a Three-Front ‘Long War’ Against China and Russia

If you thought the "global war on terror" was a significant overreach for a single power, just wait.

Think of it as the most momentous military planning on Earth right now.

Who’s even paying attention, given the eternal changing of the guard at the White House, as well as the latest in tweets, sexual revelations, and investigations of every sort? And yet it increasingly looks as if, thanks to current Pentagon planning, a twenty-first-century version of the Cold War (with dangerous new twists) has begun and hardly anyone has even noticed.

In 2006, when the Department of Defense spelled out its future security role, it saw only one overriding mission: its “Long War” against international terrorism. “With its allies and partners, the United States must be prepared to wage this war in many locations simultaneously and for some years to come,” the Pentagon’s Quadrennial Defense Review explained that year.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I am always amused when the Pentagon puts Russia in their calculations. If it was not for its advanced weapons and nuclear stockpile .... it will be just another European power with a few extra soldiers but an economy that would make it one of the poorest in Europe. China is a different story .... but while it is the world's second largest economy .... on an individual level much of the country is still mired in poverty coupled with the need for development. It will decades before they are a real military/economic/political threat, and their biggest opponent will not be the U.S. ... instead .... it will be with its neighbors who do not have a positive view of China and its "bullying tactics" in Asia. But I guess the Pentagon has to justify its existence and massive defense programs .... and what better way to do it than by dragging in the Russian and Chinese boogeyman to scare Congress to give it the money it wants. It worked in the past .... and it will work again today.

Hat tip to Fred for this link.

Who Is The Bigger Threat To U.S. Airpower, China Or Iran?

China's three DF-21D missile launchers. (Internet photo)

Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat: China or Iran: Who Is the Bigger Threat to U.S. Airpower?

A new comparative analysis sheds light on the threat Tehran’s ballistic missile force poses to U.S. airbases.

China and Iran’s anti-access/anti-denial capabilities are often lumped together in public statements by senior U.S. defense officials and the American media. That frequently leads to a mischaracterization of Tehran’s A2/AD capabilities — particularly when discussing Iran’s conventional ballistic missile force.

A new operational analysis by Jacob L. Heim, an analyst at the RAND Corporation, published in the Air & Space Power Journal, offers a comparative perspective of the risk to U.S. air bases from Chinese and Iranian conventional theater ballistic missiles, key weapon systems in both countries’ A2/AD strategies.

WNU Editor: Iran is not China .... as this analysis points out. Then again ... who is to say that China may eventually sell their missiles to Iran .... China's Non-Committed Relationship With Nonproliferation (US News and World Report).

A Look At 18 Hotly Contested Islands In The World

A South Korean navy vessel participates in a defense drill near Dokdo on the East Sea, July 30, 2008.

Business Insider: The 18 most hotly contested islands in the world

More than ever, islands — and the resources beneath them — are the focus of geopolitical tensions between nations around the world.

The biggest disputes range from the Arctic to Croatia to north of Samoa, and some of the competing claims were made centuries ago.

WNU Editor: A good list of islands that now find themselves in the middle of a territorial dispute. The South China Sea territorial dispute is on the top of my list on what could become the "most dangerous" flashpoint.

Here Are 10 Conflicts That Will Threaten Global Stability In 2014

BEACH BUDDIES - Marines enjoy a moment of relaxation on a beach after conducting an amphibious training raid as part of Tropic Thunder, an exercise on Marine Corps Base Hawaii, Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii, Aug. 30, 2013. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Christopher O'Quin

Next Year’s Wars -- Louise Arbour, Foreign Policy

From Sochi to Sudan, 10 conflicts that will threaten global stability in 2014.

Before we dive into next year's list of conflicts to watch, some thoughts on the year we are about to conclude are in order. In short, 2013 was not a good year for our collective ability to prevent or end conflict. For sure, there were bright moments. Colombia appears closer than ever to ending a civil war which next year will mark its 60th birthday. Myanmar, too, could bring down the curtain on its decades-long internal ethnic conflicts, though many hurdles remain. The deal struck over Iran's nuclear program was a welcome fillip for diplomacy, even dynamism. The U.N. Security Council finally broke its deadlock over Syria, at least with regards to the regime's chemical weapons, and committed to more robust interventions in Eastern Congo and the Central African Republic. Turkey's talks with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) continue in fits and starts, but the ceasefire looks reasonably durable. Pakistan enjoyed its first-ever democratic handover of power.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The list of countries that Louise Arbour has compiled for Foreign Policy is the following ....

1) Syria and Lebanon
2) Iraq
3) Libya
4) Honduras
5) Central African Republic
6) Sudan
7) The Sahel and Nigeria
8) Bangladesh
9) Central Asia
10) North Caucasus (Sochi)

Global Conflicts To Watch In 2014

Center for Preventive Action/Council on Foreign Relations

The Global Conflicts to Watch in 2014 -- Uri Friedman, The Atlantic

From a cyberattack on America to a civil war in Iraq, the threats we'll be worrying about next year

As South Sudan, the world's newest country, veers dangerously close to ethnic civil war, we're already getting a glimpse of the international crises that could greet us in the new year. Now the Center for Preventive Action, an affiliate of the Council on Foreign Relations, has presented a more comprehensive view, releasing its annual forecast of the conflicts that could pose the greatest threat to the United States in 2014.

The survey, which asked more than 1,200 U.S. government officials, academics, and experts to assess the impact and likelihood of 30 scenarios, divides the results into three tiers of risk. And some of the findings are alarming. Beyond the familiar flashpoints—military intervention in Syria's civil war, strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities—the report raises concerns about overlooked threats ranging from turmoil in Jordan to civil war in Iraq to a border clash between China and India. The study is also notable for the risks it downplays, including armed confrontation between China and its neighbors over territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas.

Read more ....

My Comment: Syria is on the top of everyone's list right now.

Will The Next Great War Start In The Middle East?

Flash Point In The Eastern Mediterranean -- James Stavridis, Foreign Policy

Will conflict in the Middle East trigger the next great power war?

We need a strategy for the Eastern Mediterranean.

This is not a new crisis. The Greek poet Constantine Cavafy lived and wrote in Egypt a century ago. One of his short, evocative poems is entitled "In Alexandria, 31 B.C." It is about an itinerant peddler who comes to the city to hawk his wears and is beaten badly by the crowds. The poem ends:

And when he asks, now totally confused, 'What's going on here?'
someone tosses him too the huge palace lie:
that Antony is winning in Greece.

Here, in a few lines of poetry, is a metaphor not just for Egypt, but for the entire Eastern Mediterranean: crowd violence, confusion on the ground, economic disruption, and failing strategic communications.

Read more ....

My Comment: I do not see any new policy position or movement coming from the White House on what to do in the eastern Mediterranean. The only one who is focused on the region is US Secretary of State John Kerry .... but his priority is to pressure Israel in making concessions to the Palestinians .... as to what is happening elsewhere, he is definitely not laying the groundwork for an expanded U.S. military and political presence in the region. If in the end the many conflicts in the region escalate into one major conflict it will not be the fault of the U.S. .... the U.S. has been engaged for years and all that the region has given us is grief and frustration .... it is now time for the Middle East to sort out its differences, and if it becomes violent, to make sure that it is only limited there.

Six Global Hotspots to Watch

Aircraft from the John C. Stennis Carrier Strike Group fly in formation during a demonstration above the USS John C. Stennis underway in the Pacific Ocean, April 20, 2013. The group is returning from an eight-month deployment to areas of responsibility for the U.S. 5th and 7th fleets. U.S. Navy photo by Petty Officer 3rd Class Katarzyna Kobiljak

Six Global Hotspots to Watch: The Next War -- Real Clear World

While the Middle East has a powerful claim on the world's attention (or at least Washington's), the world has no shortage of potentially explosive hotspots. Whether it's conflicting claims on vital resources, or waterways and borders whose demarcation remains unsettled and contested, the world's hotspots are simmering. Some are dangerously close to the boiling point; others are heating up gradually.

We've identified six to watch for 2013 and beyond.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The six 'hotspots' are .... East China Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, Eastern Congo, India China border, the Arctic, and the Caspian Sea.

Top 4 Concerns For The Pentagon On China's Growing Military

China's Growing Military Might: Top 4 Concerns For The Pentagon

China continues to increase spending to grow its already considerable military, and top Pentagon officials continue to watch the developments carefully.

In a report issued this week, the Department of Defense for the first time directly accused China’s military of using cyberattacks to spy on US networks.

In this arena and others, “China’s military buildup shows no signs of slowing,” said David Helvey, deputy assistant secretary of Defense for East Asia, who presented the congressionally mandated report on the state of China’s military activities.

Here are Pentagon officials’ top four concerns as they carefully monitor the growth of China’s military.

Read more ....

My Comment: China will be (if not already) the number one concern for the Pentagon .... and will be for the future .... but for the moment no one in Congress or in the White House is listening to them.

Who Is The Enemy?

Who Is Our Enemy? -- Will Cain, CNN Contributor, and Andrew C. McCarthy, Special to CNN

Editor's note: Will Cain is a CNN contributor and co-host of Real News at The Blaze. Andrew C. McCarthy, a former federal prosecutor, is a contributor to National Review and author of "Willful Blindness: Memoir of the Jihad." The following is an e-mail exchange/debate between Cain and McCarthy.

(CNN) -- Will Cain: Andy, who are we fighting in the war on terror? I don't mean to turn this into a freshman Political Science 101 question, but this is a pretty important issue. The answer to that question should protect us not only from terrorists, but also from the government depriving us of constitutional rights.

Sens. Lindsay Graham, John McCain and Kelly Ayotte and Rep. Peter King are all raising hell over the fact that Dzhokhar Tsarnaev -- one the of suspects in the Boston Marathon bombing -- wasn't designated an "enemy combatant" and held in military detention for interrogation. But I see nothing in the Authorization for Use of Military Force or the National Defense Authorization Act that takes away rights afforded to citizens (Dzhokhar is a U.S. citizen) by the Constitution.

Do you disagree?

Read more ....

My Comment: Over the years I have lost count on how many times different governments (and their institutions) told me that "our country" had "enemies" out there .... and that we had to do something about it. Being one who lived in the former Soviet Union and who now lives in North America .... there is/was always an enemy .... and there is/was always a course of action to fight them. I guess this is a part of the human condition .... people in power need adversaries to not only justify their status and positions .... but to also give credence to their policies.

So who is our enemy?

I guess the answer depends on where you are coming from ... and that is where the conflict comes about. From my perspective a person like Osama Bin Laden is a monster who made a pact with the Devil .... but to millions of others he is a saint.

Oil Flows And Strategic Shipping Chokepoints

(Click on Image to Enlarge)

Hotspots Of Potential Conflict In The Geo-Energy Era -- Michael Klare, Al Jazeera

Tensions are rising at potential flashpoints, as new bottlenecks for the flow of energy are identified.

Amherst, Massachusetts - Welcome to an edgy world - where a single incident at an energy "chokepoint" could set a region aflame, provoking bloody encounters, boosting oil prices, and putting the global economy at risk. With energy demand on the rise and sources of supply dwindling, we are, in fact, entering a new epoch - the Geo-Energy Era - in which disputes over vital resources will dominate world affairs. In 2012 and beyond, energy and conflict will be bound ever more tightly together, lending increasing importance to the key geographical flashpoints in our resource-constrained world.

Read more ....

My Comment: To put it bluntly, it is these strategic spots that will determine who will dominate the 21rst century.