Get Ready For A Major Paradigm Shift

Richard Fernandez, PJ Media: Get Ready for a Paradigm Shift on Russia, Climate Change, Everything You Think You Know...

It may now sound ridiculous, but Nikita Khrushchev once told America "we will bury you" and Washington believed him. For years the intelligence community thought the U.S.S.R. was on the verge of overtaking the U.S. as the world's largest economy before the Soviets unexpectedly collapsed. Daniel Patrick Moynihan's book, Secrecy: the American Experience, tries to explain how such a tremendous intelligence misjudgment could take place.

The Gaither report ... was forwarded to the president just weeks after the ... launching of Sputnik. ... The conclusions were stark to the point of startling ... 'The GNP of the USSR is now more than 1/3 that of the US and is increasing half again as fast' ... The intelligence community accepted and 'improved the assessment of the Gaither commission. ... [The] report remained Top Secret until 1973. But of course it had leaked well before then ... to ... the New York Times.

The illusion lasted so long because it was founded on a secret report that gave it credibility. Once the narrative had been established, it remained fundamentally unchallenged until nearly the end of the Cold War. "Sovietologists ... trained to rely on the same general assumptions and data, had engaged in 'group think' ... [until] in 1985, Rowen circulated a paper to senior officials in the Reagan administration ... that actual Soviet economic growth was close to zero."

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WNU editor: My must read post for today.

One Scenario On How Syria Could Take America And Russia To The Brink Of World War III

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu provided details of Russia's latest snap exercise at the National Defence Control Centre in Moscow on 16 March Source: Russian MoD

Harry J. Kazianis, The Week: How Trump's Syria strike could spiral into World War III

While I strongly disagree with President Trump's decision to launch a cruise missile strike in response to the chemical weapons attack that occurred in Syria last week, I can't say I disagree with him on a moral level.

The president was reportedly moved to action after seeing images of innocent women and children gasping for their last breaths, condemned to death out of the sheer randomness of where they lived — one more tragedy atop of countless others in a civil war that seems to have no end in sight.

Trump had the best of intentions — to punish the wicked responsible for this clear crime against humanity. But in the dangerous game that is international politics, Trump would be wise to quickly grasp the ultimate of inconvenient truths: Practicing "good guy vs. bad guy" foreign policy where the "evil" are to be "punished" is a simplification that can only lead to disaster.

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WNU Editor: I think .... or should I say I hope .... that in the end both Washington and Moscow will not push the button. But in the event that such a  scenario does lead to a heavy loss of life for Russian soldiers in Syria (or elsewhere) .... I do know that we will definitely be entering a new and very dangerous Cold War that will be just as intense as the Cold War was between the U.S. and the Soviet Union from the end of the Second World War to the fall of the Warsaw block.

What Does 'Boots On The Ground' Really Mean

Reuters

Kathy Gilsinan, The Atlantic: Cliché of the Moment: ‘Boots on the Ground’

Since when did footwear decide whether or not America is at war?

Last week’s announcement that the United States would be sending roughly 50 Special Operations Forces to Syria to help fight ISIS—after President Barack Obama’s repeated promises not to put American “boots on the ground” there—commenced a delicate rhetorical minuet for White House spokesman Josh Earnest. Wasn’t it the case, wondered more than one reporter at his press briefing on October 30, that 50 special operators stationed on Syrian soil were indeed “boots on the ground”? And if so, hadn’t Obama broken his promise?

WNU Editor: OK .... so its not "U.S. boots on the ground" in Syria that we have .... what we have are "U.S. sneakers on the ground" in Syria.

Is A Major War Between Russia And The West Inevitable?

Noah Rothman, Commentary: A Prelude To War

World War I didn’t begin in Europe. It started in Africa.

By the time the shooting erupted in 1914, in fact, a retrospective analysis of the conditions that led to war had lent credence to the conclusion that a great clash was almost inevitable. Germany’s perceived “encirclement” and that resurgent nation’s belief that they had been unfairly cut off from their share of colonial possessions in Africa led Berlin to embrace bellicosity. Germany forcefully protested France’s subjugation of a Moroccan rebellion and subsequent occupation of that territory in 1911 — a territory that Germany coveted. Paris’s move prompted Italy to declare suzerainty over the state of Libya, leading to a war with the Ottomans for control of that North African nation. After the Turks had lost control of the North African coast, the race was on to divide the spoils of the Ottoman Empire’s Balkan possessions, culminating in the Balkan Wars of 1912 and 1913. By the onset of August Crisis in 1914, the world had already been at war for the better part of three years.

WNU Editor: I just do not see such a conflict happening .... especially not in a world where nuclear weapons are readily available. And while we are not revisiting the situation that existed during the Cold War,  we are definitely living in dangerous times.

North Korea Is Losing Its Monopoly On Information

A North Korean soldier looks across the DMZ. Image Credit: US Army Photo by Edward N. Johnson

Alexandre Dor, The Diplomat: North Korea's Achilles Heel: Propaganda Broadcasts

South Korea’s propaganda broadcasting is a potent weapon, challenging the North’s monopoly on information.

When two South Korean soldiers had their legs amputated due to North Korea’s placement of box mines in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), the Republic of Korea responded by blasting weather reports, K-pop hits, and Buddhist teachings over the zone via loudspeakers. Infuriated, North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un raised all military and reserve personnel to a “quasi-state of war,” threatened to turn South Korea into a “sea of fire,” and recommenced broadcasts of their own propaganda.

Pyongyang’s Korean Central News Agency then asserted that “the resumption of the propaganda loudspeaker campaign is a direct provocation of war against us,” giving Seoul an ultimatum — stop the propaganda broadcast or be held responsible for it as an “open act of war.” Fortunately, the August crisis was deescalated through high-level talks and marathon negotiations.

WNU Editor: I concur with this analysis. Information is North Korea's Achilles Heel .... and the best way to ferment change in North Korea is to broadcast/disseminate/educate/and publicize not what life is like in North Korea (the North Koreans are well aware of how they live), but to publicize what life is like in South Korea. South Korea will not even need to broadcast "propaganda" .... just show what their lives are like, starting with the consumer goods that they have.

I personally saw how information can be a powerful tool .... in both the Soviet Union and in China. In the case of China, I was stationed in Fujian province in the 1980s (Fujian is across from Taiwan) .... and when the Chinese started to have TV sets and access to Taiwan's transmissions .... it was amazing to see how this impacted Chinese society. Case in point .... the streets of Quanzhou where I was stationed (in 1988) were always busy at the end of the day when families took a walk outside after supper .... this was always the case but once a week for one hour the streets were inexplicably empty. I found out later that it was during this time that the latest broadcast of the American show "Dallas" was on .... beamed directly from Taiwan. I knew all about the show, and I explained to everyone that the show Dallas was just a soap opera .... a work of fiction .... but many Chinese did not care, and many firmly believed that the Ewing family in the show was a reflection of American life .... that many in America had a Mercedes, big house, nice clothes, and more food than you can handle. Years later I am still wondering if this lost of control over information may have helped in creating the political protests that gripped China in 1989 .... culminating in the Tienanmen Square massacre. The timing of this information explosion followed by growing resentment among many young Chinese students on their standard of living .... it all started at this time .... and the coincidence makes me wonder.

In the old Soviet Union .... same story. Because of my father's work I had the opportunity to travel abroad as a young kid .... so I saw how people lived. This disconnect from the Soviet message and what the truth really is/was did not hit me until I was a young adult. And when I explained to everyone that yes .... living conditions and opportunities were far better in the West than in the East .... everyone was either sceptical and/or thought I was a liar. What changed everything was technology .... more to the point .... it became harder to block the message from western Europe to eastern Europe, and then from eastern Europe to the Soviet Union. Years later I attended a gathering where Mikhail Gorbachev and Rupert Murdock were the guest of honors. I will never forget this .... in his remarks Mikhail Gorbachev mentioned that it was people like Rupert Murdock and organizations like CNN that forced the Soviet Union to change, and they had to change because they were no longer in control of the message. Yup .... Mikhail Gorbachev made many mistakes .... and I am not a fan of him nor his legacy ..... but he did foresee how advances in technology .... particularly in communications .... would make control of information next to impossible for the Soviet state. His response was perestroika and glasnost. Perestroika (reforming the Communist Party) failed .... but glasnost (openness) fortunately exceeded even beyond my own hopes and dreams.

It Was Inevitable That Some Of The SEALs Involved In The Bin Laden Raid Would Want To Discuss Their Role In Public

A Navy SEAL stalks a target during a training exercise.

It Was Inevitable That A Navy SEAL Would Speak Publicly About The Bin Laden Raid -- Pierre Bienaimé, Business Insider

Mark Bowden is one of the preeminent journalists of this era, with much of his work focusing on the fraught relationship between the US and the Islamic world. His books include now-classic works of reportage like Black Hawk Down and Guests of the Ayatollah, and he wrote a 2012 book about the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, The Finish. He is currently a national correspondent for The Atlantic, as well as a contributing editor at Vanity Fair.

Business Insider spoke to him about the 35th anniversary of the embassy hostage crisis, the fight against ISIS, and why it was inevitable that participants in the Bin Laden raid would want to discuss their role in public. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

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My Comment: When details first broke about the Osama Bin Laden raid, I was disappointed that many of the details were kept secret. But I will confess that at the time I strongly believed that some (if not all) of the details would eventually leak out .... and probably sooner rather than later. So yes .... it was inevitable that a Navy SEAL would eventually speak publicly about the Bin Laden raid .... and sooner rather than later.

Should we be surprised .... no. We do live in a new age where mass communications and information is always readily available at our fingertips. We are also living in a very narcissistic age .... where many of us crave and hunger for attention and recognition. Are US Navy SEALs immune from this ... obviously not .... but there are still many US Navy SEALs who are remaining quiet ... and they should at least be applauded and recognized for that.

This Has Not Been A Good Year

U.S. Marines observe surrounding compounds during a security patrol in Washir district in Helmand province, Afghanistan, Sept. 29, 2014. The Marines are assigned to Bravo Company, 1st Battalion, 2nd Marine Regiment. The Marines patrolled to disrupt enemy operations against the Bastion-Leatherneck Complex. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. John A. Martinez Jr.

A Year Of Living On The Brink -- Daniel Henninger, Wall Street Journal

Ebola, ISIS, Ukraine, a stock-market wipeout—there’s nowhere to hide.

History will mark down 2014 as the year predicted 49 years ago by Martha and the Vandellas. In 1965 the group recorded a Motown classic, “Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide.” We’re there, at the brink.

Liberia, ISIS, Ukraine, Hong Kong, a hospital fighting Ebola infections in Dallas, the year’s stock-market gains obliterated, and I almost forgot—just last week Secretary of State John Kerry warned that climate change could end life as we know it.

Then this week the clouds parted and the year’s best news arrived: Led by Europe’s sinking economies, global economic growth is falling, taking stocks and bonds with it, and the world’s central bankers say they have run out of ideas on doing anything about it.

How this is good news requires explanation.

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My comment: This post by Daniel Henninger focuses on the economy .... but I would also add that the national security situation does not look promising either. The war against the Islamic State is going to be a messy one .... and one that I predict will carry-on into the next U.S. Presidency.

Top 10 International News Stories From Time

Chawkai Mission - Afghan commandos sprint to board a U.S. Army UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter during a mission in the Chawkai district in Afghanistan's Kunar province, Feb. 25, 2012. The commando-led mission was to conduct reconnaissance for a future village stability platform where Afghan forces and coalition special operations forces can live and work with villagers. U.S. Navy photo by Petty Officer 2nd Class Clayton Weis

9. Afghanistan: Escaping the Quagmire -- Time

It’s no secret that the diminishing coalition of Western governments still involved in the 11-year war in Afghanistan are desperate to get out. Some, like the French, have already wound down their military operations ahead of schedule. Washington preaches staying the course through gritted teeth until the end of 2014, at which point Afghan government forces will ostensibly have the numbers, the training, the equipment and the will to take over the fight against the Taliban. That narrative has been challenged by events in 2012, not least the steady toll of regular “green-on-blue” killings—when supposedly friendly Afghan personnel attack their NATO mentors. More than 60 coalition soldiers have died in such attacks this year alone.

WNU Editor: For the other 9 stories, start here.

13 Stories For 2013

13 Stories For 2013: From Syria To The Climate To The 'Post-Gangnam' Era -- CNN

(CNN) -- Forecasting the major international stories for the year ahead is a time-honored pastime, but the world has a habit of springing surprises. In late 1988, no one was predicting Tiananmen Square or the fall of the Berlin Wall. On the eve of 2001, the 9/11 attacks and the subsequent invasion of Afghanistan were unimaginable. So with that substantial disclaimer, let's peer into the misty looking glass for 2013.

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My Comment: Syria and the economy will be the big stories in 2013.

Ten Important Military Stories That You Rarely Hear About

Wing Walker - U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Rodney Hall walks the wing of a C-130 Hercules aircraft equipped with a firefighting system during a preflight inspection in Charlotte, N.C., Aug. 13, 2012. The 145th Airlift Wing, North Carolina Air National Guard, sent two C-130 Hercules cargo planes to California, where they fought fires at the direction of the U.S. Forest Service. U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Brian Christiansen

Conflicts That Matter, That You Hardly Ever Hear About -- Strategy Page

December 31, 2012: Many critical military conflicts never get much publicity. Sometimes it's because they involve espionage; often it's because, well, the media never really gets interested. Here are ten (in alphabetical order) you should at least be aware of. They are all more important than you realize:

1. Bureaucrats vs. the Troops. Increasing government regulation, which long avoided the military, now goes after the troops as well. Environmental regulations limit training and how weapons are built. Equal opportunity rules have brought calls to allow the disabled to join the military. Lawyers strive for the right to sue the armed forces for real or imagined injuries. Some armed forces have been allowed to unionize. The bureaucrats know little of how the military operates, so they charge ahead with the best of intentions, and often disastrous results. In many countries, the military is little more than a bunch of poorly trained civil servants with guns. That becomes painfully apparent only on those rare occasions when the troops are called out to fight. Some politicians know this and that at least makes them more reluctant to get into a fight.

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My Comment: If you follow this blog, these are the military stories that are always posted.

Is The World Safer?

The World Is Safer. But No One In Washington Can Talk About It. -- Greg Jaffe, Washington Post

There’s one foreign policy fact that President Obama and Mitt Romney dare not mention this election season. No American general will speak of it. Nor will it displace the usual hot topics at Washington’s myriad foreign policy think tanks.

Measured by most relevant statistics, the United States — and the world — have never been safer.

Obama says terrorist networks remain the greatest threat to the United States. “We have to remain vigilant,” he warned recently. But global terrorism has barely touched most Americans in the decade since Sept. 11, 2001, with 238 U.S. citizens killed in terrorist attacks, mostly in war zones, according to the National Counterterrorism Center’s annual reports. By comparison, the Consumer Product Safety Commission found that 293Americans were crushed during the same stretch by falling furniture or televisions.

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My Comment: Is the world safer? Not having the Cold War around and the fear of a nuclear holocaust is a good thing .... so probably yes. But do I personally feel safe .... depending on where I am visiting, there are moments when I have to say no.

Why Should Anyone Feel 'Uncomfortable' Calling Fallen Military 'Heroes' ?

Blogs Rip MSNBC's Chris Hayes On 'Heroes' -- Politico

Conservatives in the blogosphere slammed MSNBC’s Chris Hayes for saying on his show Sunday that he feels “uncomfortable” calling fallen soldiers “heroes.”

“Why do I feel so uncomfortable about the word ‘hero’?” Hayes said. “I feel uncomfortable about the word hero because it seems to me that it is so rhetorically proximate to justifications for more war. Um, and, I don’t want to obviously desecrate or disrespect memory of anyone that’s fallen, and obviously there are individual circumstances in which there is genuine, tremendous heroism, you know, hail of gunfire, rescuing fellow soldiers and things like that. But it seems to me that we marshal this word in a way that is problematic. But maybe I’m wrong about that.”

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My Comment: What can I say after watching this train-wreck of a video. He tries to sound intellectual and smart .... ends up looking stupid and dumb.

No One Can Win A Future Research Arms Race

The United States wasn't able to keep the B-29 a sercret very long. Russia developed its own version within a few years. Wikipedia, public domain.

No One Can Win The Future -- Slate

It's wrong to pit U.S. and Chinese scientists against each other in a research arms race.

Almost a year ago, President Obama set a challenge in his State of the Union speech: "We need to out-innovate, out-educate, and out-build the rest of the world." He had just signed a law that ordered the Department of Commerce to write a report on American “competitiveness.” That report was released last week and claims that "elements of the U.S. economy are losing their competitive edge which may mean that future generations of Americans will not enjoy a higher standard of living."

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My Comment: Secrets are always fleeting .... and in a world where the internet connects everyone around the world instantaneously .... forget about keeping secrets and data to oneself.

Will 2012 Be A Repeat Of 1932?

Wall Street Crash 1929: Scenes outside the New York Stock Exchange on the day the stock market crashed may once again become a reality

The Spectre Of 1932: How A Loss Of Faith In Politicians And Democracy Could Make 2012 The Most Frightening Year In Living Memory -- Daily Mail

The dawn of a new year is usually a time of hope and ambition, of dreams for the future and thoughts of a better life. But it is a long time since many of us looked forward to the new year with such anxiety, even dread.

Here in Britain, many economists believe that by the end of 2012 we could well have slipped into a second devastating recession. The Coalition remains delicately poised; it would take only one or two resignations to provoke a wider schism and a general election.

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My Comment: No .... we are not repeating 1932. To begin .... Nazis and fascists are a thing of the past and have very little chance of coming back ..... even if everything goes to "hell". What I am more concerned about is the economy and the state of our money. Our personal and government debts are incredibly high, a situaiton that reminds me of Russia in 1992 when high debts resulted in inflation and the destruction of the middle class in Russia .... a sight that I saw and a sight that I wish to never see again. But can it happen again ... but this time in the West. Sighhhh .... if governments cannot control their spending .... trust me .... history is going to repeat itself again.

America's 'Greatest Threat' Is?

Can Anyone Agree On What America's 'Greatest Threat' Is? -- Passport/Foreign Policy

It's one of the most persistent cliches of foreign-policy commentary, particularly since it's an assertion that's basically impossible to disprove. Here are some things that have been described, in various terms, as the greatest threat to U.S. national security or the American way of life in the past few months:

A "lone-wolf" terrorist attack - President Barack Obama

President Barack Obama - Gov. Rick Perry

China's nuclear arsenal - Director of National Intelligence James Clapper

The national debt - Former Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen

The economic crisis - Retired Adm. Dennis Blair

Nuclear terrorism - Former Vice President Dick Cheney

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My Comment: They are all correct.

Marine Reflects On What A Decade Of War Has Cost Americans.

Reuters

Wounded In Iraq: A Marine's Story -- The Atlantic

Five years after a gunshot changed his life, the author reflects on what a decade of war has cost Americans.

I cry whenever I think of a memorial service I attended in Iraq. From the back of the hot, packed room next to the chaplain's office, I looked down the center aisle and saw six sets of boots, rifles, helmets, and dog tags. Six Americans had lost their lives defending their country. I had seen these Marines hug each other before heading out on patrol -- real hugs, as if they guessed they might not see each other again. They had been in Iraq for a while and knew how dangerous every mission was.

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My Comment: A personal but poignant commentary .... read it all.

An Interview With Noted Military Historian Victor Davis Hanson

From Human Events: This week's video is with Victor Davis Hanson, a military historian, warfare expert, columnist, and author of dozens of books, including The Father of Us All: War and History, Ancient and Modern. Hansen takes you around the world and explains modern warfare, why the post-Cold War new world order is rapidly breaking apart, future dangers in Asia, Mexico's corruption, and Russia's follies.

WNU Editor: This is the first of 4 segments to this video. The rest of this interview can be watched here.

A Commentary On Mexico's Drug Cartel War And It's Impact On The U.S. (Arizona Included)

Three bodies lie in a Tijuana street during 72 hours of ferocious street battles between drug cartels. Photograph: Sergio Ortiz

Border Disorder: Mexico: The Real War Next Door -- Ralph Peters (Commentary)

South of the border, down Mexico way, a new and savage revolution rages just beyond our inspection lanes. After less than five years of fighting, estimates of the dead have reached 22,000.

The rate of killing accelerates each month. And Washington covers its eyes like a kid at a scary movie. Well, the Mexican narco-insurgency, in which well-armed guerrilla forces confront the authority and presence of the state, is our No. 1 security challenge.

The chaos in northern Mexico has far deeper implications for our country than Islamist terror or even an Iranian nuclear capability (as grim as those threats are).

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My Comment: I was a constant traveler to Mexico in the 1980s and 1990s. It was my #1 tourist destination during my winter break .... tequila, rum, and Mexican food coupled with sunshine and beach volleyball .... for me .... Mexico was paradise, especially outside of the tourist areas.

This has not been the case since the early 1990s .... and I have stayed away since then. Crime, government corruption and grinding poverty .... coupled with the rise of the narco trade and the criminal culture that it breeds has killed the Mexico that I learned to love and respect. Now .... I see the same problems that have plunged Mexico into the mess that it is in today slowly creeping into the southern U.S., with cities like Tuscon and Phoenix bearing the brunt of this onslaught.

The only thing that I am surprised about is that only 70% of the people in Arizona favor the state's new immigration law. Considering what is happening .... I expected this total to be closer to 90%. Hmmmm .... give it time .... give it time.

Put Terrorists In Prison, Not U.S. Soldiers -- A Commentary From Diana West

The US Disciplinary Barracks at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Photograph: US army/AP

From the Washington Examiner:

During the Thanksgiving season especially, Americans should give thanks to our brave men in uniform, and women, too, fighting in hostile lands under atrocious conditions.

But there's another duty upon us as Americans with a debt of gratitude to our armed forces.

We must recognize and protest the travesties of military justice that have tried, convicted, jailed and denied clemency to all too many brave Americans, the same brave Americans who have fought our wars only to be unfairly charged with "murder" in the war zone.

Readers of this column will recall the crushing conviction of Sgt. Evan Vela, a young Ranger-trained sniper and father of two from Idaho, for executing his superior's 2006 order to kill an Iraqi man then compromising his squad's hiding place in the pre-"surge" Sunni triangle. Ten years in Fort Leavenworth, ordered not-so-blind justice. (There is evidence that Evan's harsh sentence was a blatant political offering to Iraq's government.)

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My Comment: Is a double standard at work .... it appears that many are of the opinion that there is one.

Tank Man And Tank Commander

From Lawyers, Guns, And Money:

What follows is a long, largely unoriginal rumination on the state, coercion, the Odessa Steps, and Tank Man. Skip to the end for trivial observations about the current situation in Iran. Or just skip entirely...

The modern nation state is an extremely efficient killing machine. We know this from our Tilly; the nation-state replaced its competitors, such as empires and city-states, because it could develop and support institutions of internal and external domination. The nation-state successfully extracted a large surplus from its population, which it transformed into the coercive means for acquiring even more internal surplus and for waging external wars.

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My Comment: An examination of the modern state .... and how it controls its populations. I do not put these long commentaries in this blog .... most of you are probably not interested in these things anyway .... but if you have 15 minutes, read the above post.