What Will Be The Pandemic's Geopolitical Aftershocks?

Mohan Malik, The Strategist: The Pandemic’s Geopolitical Aftershocks

The triple crises of geopolitical power shifts, the Covid-19 pandemic and the economic disasters that flow from it will shape global politics, restructure global supply chains and bring an end to unregulated globalisation. The post-pandemic world is yet to take shape, but it’s likely to be as divided and bifurcated as occurred after World War II.

We are entering a new cold war with eyes wide open, not sleepwalking into it as some would argue. The vast Indo-Pacific region from the western Pacific to the western Indian Ocean is its ground zero.

Every crisis has winners and losers. China emerged as a winner after the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks and the 2008 global financial crisis. The world’s worst pandemic will also have winners and losers. China could emerge bruised and much weakened in a post-Covid-19 world that is fragmented and has a more regulated style of ‘guided globalisation’.

China’s economy is particularly susceptible to declines in foreign investment, technology controls and export markets. A prolonged economic slowdown caused by the pandemic, war or natural disasters, potentially made worse by the exodus of multinational corporations (aka Chiexit), could even threaten the stability of China’s one-party regime.

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WNU Editor: With most countries now wanting to decouple from China, I cannot help but feel that when this is all over, the biggest geopolitical aftershock will be on China and its place in the world.

Is This The New World Order?

The Old Order Collapses, Finally -- Robert Kaplan, Stratfor

There has been something both conclusive and convulsive -- and yet sustaining -- about the crisis in Ukraine that has caused people to believe we have now entered a new chapter in international relations. As other commentators have noted, the old order has collapsed. By that they mean the period erstwhile labeled the Post Cold War.

This is a stunning formulation because it means at face value that all the blood and tragedy in Afghanistan and Iraq were not enough to signal a new phase in history, while the past few months in Ukraine were. But how can that be? The answer is that historical periods evolve very gradually -- over the years, during a decade of fighting in the Middle East, say -- whereas our recognition of these changes may happen only later, in an instant, as when Russia annexed Crimea.

Let me define what others have referred to as the "old order," as well as where I think we stand now.

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My Comment: When I read stories like this one .... Pentagon to close 21 facilities in Europe (The Hill) .... the world is indeed undergoing a military/economic/political realignment .... but driven more by economic limits than anything else.

Update: I am not a fan of Peter Beinart .... but he has a good article that details the decline in U.S. strategic thinking in this new world order .... Putting Ukraine in Its Place.

Update #2: Even US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel (of all people) is getting involved on this "new world order" debate .... SecDef Hagel Says New World Order Being Built.

Update #3: Another commentary on the "end of the old order" .... A Great-Power Outage -- Vali R. Nasr, New York Times

Do We Need More F-22s?

F-22s

From Information Dissemination:

I really like this Greg Grant article on DoD Buzz. It lists out the talking points for the F-22 and highlights many of the flaws in some of the arguments made for supporting the platform. However, the article also has a paragraph that I believe is where serious consideration is warranted on the F-22 program.

The oddest thing about this whole debate is that it’s not about whether or not to develop and produce the admittedly impressive air-superiority fighter. That has already happened. The F-22 is operational and current plans are to build the final of 187 Raptors by 2011. The argument F-22 advocates make is that 187 is not enough and that only by buying more Raptors will strategic catastrophe be avoided in what has become the ultimate “bean counting” game, conjuring memories of measuring the NATO vs. Warsaw Pact balance, with the difference, of course, that no adversary currently exists to bean count against.

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My Comment: One thing that I enjoy about editing and running this blog, is using history as a guide to explain today's geopolitical/economic/military decisions. In particular, I have always stated that our economic strength and prosperity has a direct impact on maintaining security and a defense readiness that would give pause to any other nation in the world who may contemplate pursuing an adventurous foreign policy. As long time readers of this blog know, I have always used examples from the Romans to the height of the British Empire as a tool to prove my point.

If there is a geopolitical trend that concerns me, it is that hostile powers are now starting to accumulate an economic strength that approaches our own. Once this is achieved, all bets are then off, and our decisions become very limited. History gives numerous examples of what happens to countries whose military decisions fall short of what their military strategists have told them are necessary.

I feel that we are approaching that world today. Our economic weakness .... which is getting worse .... will only embolden hostile countries .... who perceive themselves as getting wealthier .... to proceed with courses of action that will almost always lead to conflict.

Information Dissemination has written an excellent post that outlines all of this, using the F-22 as his example of where we are going. The only thing that I do not like about his post is that he wrote it .... I am jealous that I did not. If you have 10 minutes to spare ... this is a must read. The comments that others have posted are also a must read.

Surviving In A Post-American World -- A Commentary

President Obama. Photo from Time Magazine

From The Jerusalem Post:

Like it or not, the United States of America is no longer the world's policeman. This was the message of Barack Obama's presidential journey to Britain, France, the Czech Republic, Turkey and Iraq this past week.

Somewhere between apologizing for American history - both distant and recent; genuflecting before the unelected, bigoted king of Saudi Arabia; announcing that he will slash the US's nuclear arsenal, scrap much of America's missile defense programs and emasculate the US Navy; leaving Japan to face North Korea and China alone; telling the Czechs, Poles and their fellow former Soviet colonies, "Don't worry, be happy," as he leaves them to Moscow's tender mercies; humiliating Iraq's leaders while kowtowing to Iran; preparing for an open confrontation with Israel; and thanking Islam for its great contribution to American history, President Obama made clear to the world's aggressors that America will not be confronting them for the foreseeable future.

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My Comment: This post is a must read. I agree with Caroline Glick's geopolitical analysis on what America's allies in the world must now do in a post-America superpower world. New alliances are now going to be formed .... and new regional regional battles and wars may be the eventual result from these decisions.

My immediate concerns reside in the Middle East. Israel will be taking action against Iran in the next few months, and Israel will also be in open political conflict with the U.S. administration. Ukraine, Pakistan, and North Korea are the other areas of "immediate" concern.