Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials On The Greek Referendum

Costas Milas, George Kyris, James Arvanitakis, Nikos Papastergiadis, Remy Davison, Richard Holden & Ross Buckley, Real Clear Defense: Greece Votes No: Experts Respond

Costas Milas, Professor of Finance, University of Liverpool

Greek voters have confirmed their support for their prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, who now has the extremely challenging task of renegotiating a “better” deal for his country.

Nevertheless, time is very short. Greece’s economic situation is critical. On July 2, Greek banks reportedly had only €500m in cash reserves. This buffer is not even 0.5% of the €120 billion deposits that Greek citizens have to their names. It is only capital controls preventing Greek banks from collapsing under the strain of withdrawal.

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials On The Greek Referendum

Greek referendum: full results -- The Guardian
Greek debt crisis: Graphic -- Reuters

What No Means After Greece's Referendum -- Stratfor
Analysis: Greece's 'game of chicken' with creditors continues -- USA Today
Greece debt crisis: Will 'No' vote lead to Grexit? -- Paul Kirby, BBC
Greece votes 'no': Now what? -- Jane Onyanga-Omara, USA TODAY
Greece Debt Crisis: What Happens Now After Bailout Terms Rejected? -- NBC
What's Next, as Greece Stumbles Toward Euro Exit -- David McHugh, AP
Referendum Result Takes Greece, and Eurozone, Into the Unknown -- Stephen Fidler, WSJ
Greece: Here's What Happens Next -- ABC News
Greece Referendum: Now What? -- Charles Crawford
Greek referendum: what happens now after the no vote? -- Jennifer Rankin and Jill Treanor, The Guardian
Greece's vote edges it towards euro exit, but the odyssey is far from over -- Larry Elliott, The Guardian
Greece will struggle to stay in euro -- Hugo Dixon, Reuters
Hope dies last in Greece after defiant 'No' -- Costas Pitas, Reuters
Why Germany won't back down on Greece: Ex-Fed's Fisher -- Tom DiChristopher, CNBC
Greece votes, Germany decides -- Matthew Karnitschnig, Politico
Help Greece Leave the Euro -- Eric Beinhocker, Bloomberg
Greek Referendum Wasn't What You Think -- Marc Champion, Bloomberg
Greece Hits the Self-Destruct Button -- Megan McArdle, Bloomberg
Syriza's lies and empty promises -- C J Polychroniou, Al Jazeera
Greeks Have Voted, Now Kick Them Out -- Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg
Greece votes No: 'The European Union is dying before our eyes' -- Nigel Farange, The Telegraph
Yanis Varoufakis: why bold, brash Greek finance minister had to go -- Helena Smith, The Guardian
'The Greek bloke’s resigned. He’s run rings round ‘em' -- Simon Goodley, The Guardian
Greece crisis explained: 7 key points on what happens now the Greeks have voted 'No' -- The Independent
Why we voted no: young Greeks on the referendum -- Carmen Fishwic, The Guardian
Why Greece Matters for Everyone -- Rana Forooha, Time
Huge costs of Greece staying in or quitting euro -- Robert Peston Economics editor, BBC

My Take On the Greek Referendum

WNU Editor: To put it bluntly .... "the shit has hit the fan". Greece may be rejoicing in their vote today .... but the EU, bankers, IMF, other lenders .... their response to such an overwhelming result will "not be kind" .... they are going to cut off the credit lines, banking assistance, and all the other means that Greece's financial institutions need to survive. As I had mentioned in previous posts .... a Greek No will mean very tough times ahead .... and it will last for at least 5 years (if not longer). Is Greece prepared for such austerity .... I doubt it .... but I do know one thing .... the next few years are going to be very tough for the Greek people .... especially for those who are dependent on the government for help. On a side note .... expect the markets to be in chaos Monday morning.

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials On The Greek Crisis -- June 30, 2015

New York Times editorial: Greece’s Future, and the Euro’s

The referendum called by Greece’s prime minister is a bad idea, but at this stage it’s about the best available. Greek banks have been shut down to avoid a meltdown; bailout talks with European creditors are frozen; Athens does not have the money to pay 1.6 billion euros due to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, threatening default and withdrawal from the euro.

So, confronted with conditions from the lenders that he dismissed as “insulting,” Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras made the surprise announcement on Saturday that he was putting the matter before Greek voters in a referendum to be held July 5.

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials On The Greek Crisis -- June 30, 2015

Where did Greece spend all its money - and who does it still owe? -- The Independent
Greece’s future hangs on 72 words -- Kerin Hope, Financial Times
What happens at midnight? -- Jan Cienski, Politico
Syriza is asking Greece’s voters to endorse its own failure -- Daniel Howden, The Guardian
Greek Voters Have Just One Question: What Does Yes Mean? -- Dimitra Kessenides, Bloomberg
Greece in chaos: will Syriza’s last desperate gamble pay off? -- Paul Mason, The Guardian
Greece's Only Hope -- Scott MacDonald, National Interest
Europe is bungling the crisis over Greece: Editorial -- Toronto Star editorial
IMF: austerity measures would still leave Greece with unsustainable debt -- Alberto Nardelli, The Guardian
Greece's Next Step: Overdue Debt and IOUs -- Mohamed A. El-Erian, Bloomberg
What will a Yes or No vote actually mean in Greek referendum? -- The Telegraph
Greece Won't Exit the Euro, Economists Say -- Josh Robinson, Bloomberg
Five key decisions that will decide Greece's fate -- Katie Allen, The Guardian
7 questions about Greece’s huge crisis you were too embarrassed to ask -- Matt O'Brien, Washington Post
What can Greece learn from Argentina's default experience? -- Owen Bennett-Jones, BBC
Greece Crisis: Everything you need to know -- CNN
Greece has no good options left -- Mike Bird, Business Insider
Which country's papers are coming down hardest on Greece? -- The Telegraph
Greece crisis timeline: the weekend that rocked the eurozone -- The Guardian

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials On The Greek Debt Crisis

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Bloomberg: Greece Comes to a Sudden Stop. Now What?

Sadly, the “Graccident” has happened.

The Greek economy is now in intensive care, as its parts -- and notably its banking system -- grind to a halt. The economy that eventually comes out of intensive care will be smaller and uncomfortably different in form, but it will also have the potential to prosper over the longer term if some important decisions are made rapidly and consistently.

The dramatic breakdown in bitterness and acrimony of negotiations this weekend between Greece and its creditors understandably panicked Greeks, who are justifiably worried about their financial well-being. Lines started forming at automatic tellers, as depositors rushed to pull out whatever cash they could. Several machines ran out of money, and it became clear that a full run on the banking system would occur when banks opened on Monday.

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials On The Greek Debt Crisis

Why Aren’t the Markets Freaking Out More About the Greek Crisis? -- Neil Irwin, NYT
This Is How Grexit Happens -- Robert Kahn, Real Clear World
The next act: what happens now in Greece's drama -- AP
Humiliating Greece -- Telegraph editorial
No Money Left in Greece -- Guardian editorial
Greek Suicide Watch -- Wall Street Journal editorial
The very big risks of the Greek debt crisis -- Mark Thompson, CNN
Greek debt crisis: Why a bailout referendum? -- Laurence Peter BBC
Greece could be biggest national default in history -- Patrick Gillespie, CNN
How much Greece owes to international creditors -- Reuters
'Like a bad dream' – Greeks awake to no money and no certainty -- Jon Henley, The Guardian
Greece's Bizarre Referendum -- Tristram Sainsbury, Lowy Institute
Grexit signs: Drachma, how we’ve missed you! -- John Lloyd, Reuters
Greece stumbling toward default: A game of chicken gone wrong -- Archim Hurrelmann, The Globe and Mail
Greek debt crisis: Is Grexit inevitable? -- Paul Kirby, BBC
What a Grexit means for you: What's happening in Greece - and how does it affect Britons as debt default looms? -- Daily Mail

Greece Has Gone Over The Brink

Paul Krugman, New York Times: Greece Over the Brink

It has been obvious for some time that the creation of the euro was a terrible mistake. Europe never had the preconditions for a successful single currency — above all, the kind of fiscal and banking union that, for example, ensures that when a housing bubble in Florida bursts, Washington automatically protects seniors against any threat to their medical care or their bank deposits.

Leaving a currency union is, however, a much harder and more frightening decision than never entering in the first place, and until now even the Continent’s most troubled economies have repeatedly stepped back from the brink. Again and again, governments have submitted to creditors’ demands for harsh austerity, while the European Central Bank has managed to contain market panic.

WNU Editor: Aside the fact that his analysis on how Canada got out of its financial hole in the 1990s is wrong (I live in Canada so I know that it was not the low Canadian dollar that helped us but the federal government raising taxes and slashing its spending that changed the dynamics that resulted in budget surpluses) .... but Nobel Economic Prize laureate Paul Krugman is right on this point .... Greece has now gone over the brink. For someone who has valued the importance of government's need to accept debt .... this has probably been a philosophical problem for him .... and his proposed proposed solution for Greece reflects that. Unfortunately .... I do not see how his proposals .... if accepted ..... are going to solve their underlying economic/fiscal/debt problems. Leaving the Euro is a temporary measure .... but the problem has been, is, and will be the Greek government's inability and unwillingness to balance its books, further helped by Greek voters always voting in politicians with this mindset. The Greek political culture on how they view government money and debt and the role that they play in the economy has to change .... absent that they will just be like Argentina .... repeating the mistakes every generation and being the poorer because of it.

Greece Is Playing 'Financial Brinkmanship' With The EU

Financial Times: Eurozone alarm grows over Greek bailout brinkmanship

WNU Editor: Europeans .... especially for those who believe in the EU .... always like to envision their ship of state (i.e. Europe) moving together in one direction. Give credit to the Greeks .... they have certainly upset that perception in the past week. But will Greece succeed .... in my opinion no .... because in the end they do need the bailout and (more importantly in the future) access to credit markets.

The Unraveling Of Greek Society

Greece Is On The Brink Of Civil War -- Wolf Richter, Business Insider/Testosterone Pit

“I’m wondering how much this society can endure before it explodes,” said Georg Pieper, a German psychotherapist who specializes in treating post-traumatic stress disorders following catastrophes, large accidents (including the deadliest train wreck ever in Germany), acts of violence, freed hostages....

But now he was talking about Greece.

He’d spent several days in Athens to give continuing education courses in trauma therapy for psychologist, psychiatrists, and doctors—for free, this being a country in crisis.

Read more ....

My Comment: A Canadian-Greek family that I know very well live 6 months in Greece and 6 months in Canada. When they came back last month they told me the same thing .... Greece as they know it is unraveling. And while some are doing very well in this crisis .... many others are not, and the frustration levels are now rising.

Are The Greeks In Denial Of Their Crisis?

A woman walks past the image of the Parthenon on a bus. Picture: Reuters

Greeks In Denial As World Warns Of Drachmageddon -- Scotsman

IN A land of ancient mythology, modern Greeks have created some new myths about their near-bankrupt country’s future as an integral part of a Europe that will never kick them out.

Cassandra-like warnings from abroad that Athens cannot stay in the euro while rejecting the terms of its international bailout are widely disbelieved.

In Berlin yesterday, Alex Tspiras, the leftist leader many observers outside Greece see as being the chorus of this denial, once again warned that austerity championed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel could bring down the entire eurozone. A threat he believes is enough to make sure support of Greece continues, no matter what.

Read more ....

My Comment: I am sure that many Greeks realize that they have a problem. What they are in denial of is on what it will take to get out of it .... or more to the point .... the sacrifices that they must implement to get out of it.

Update: Europe's Big Fat Greek Heart Attack -- Mohamed A. El-Erian, Foreign Policy

Why Greece Believes Europe Owes Them (And Not The Other Way Around)

Festering Anger, Nazi War Crimes And The £60bn The Greeks Believe The Germans Owe Them -- Daily Mail

The SS indulged their bloodlust on men, women and children alike. While homes and shops blazed around them like some hellish inferno, women were violated and those who were pregnant were stabbed in the guts. Small babies were bayoneted in their cribs. The village priest was beheaded.

By the time Hitler’s men had left the Greek village of Distomo near the ancient town of Delphi on that bloody day in June 1944, 218 people were dead.

Read more ....

My Comment: My nationality is Russia .... and as much as some Greeks may feel that they are entitled to some form of compensation from Germany .... what the German's did to Greece does not even come close to what was done to Russia. So am I (or the country Russia itself) demanding compensation .... hmmm .... overall no. Love to get some cash (who doesn't), but we know that it is not going to happen .... and besides .... we have other fish to fry and problems to focus on.

Greece is a basket-case .... and what is worse .... the sense of entitlement among many Greeks that not only Germans but also the French, Scandinavian, and other countries owe Greece is (to me) depressing and a taste of where this is all going. The EU is willing to cut 50% of Greece's debt ... the Greeks should instead be grateful, get their act together, work hard, sacrifice, and (for crying out loud) hide the begging bowl.

Greek Riots: Why Violence And Revolt Have Rocked The Cradle Of Democracy -- A Commentary

A protestor provokes riot police while students block off Syntagma (Parliament) Square. Greek protesters unleashed a wave of violence on Saturday night, led by the firebombing of an Athens police station moments after silent vigils for a teenager killed one week ago wound down. (AFP/Olivier Laban-Mattei)

From The Telegraph:

To millions of British holidaymakers it is a summer playground of sun, sea and ancient treasures, but a week of fierce rioting and violent street battles has uncovered a far darker side to Greece.

The explosion of rage that has engulfed the country over a police officer's fatal shooting of a 15-year-old schoolboy could not be further from its tourist brochure image of shady tavernas, quaint fishing villages and sparkling Aegean bays.

Athens – the cradle of Western civilisation – has been turned into a war zone, its streets jammed with the burnt-out wrecks of cars and its pavements blackened by soot and liquid oozing from melted rubbish bins.

Read more ....

Why Greece Is In Turmoil -- A Commentary

Riot police attempt to assist a colleague covered in flames from a petrol bomb thrown by protesters, during clashes in central Athens, Friday Dec. 12, 2008. Greek youths were hurling rocks and broken paving stones at riot police who responded with volleys of tear gas, on the seventh straight day of unrest over the fatal police shooting of a teenager last Saturday night (AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis)

From Forbes Magazine:

Economic fears amid the haze of tear gas.

ATHENS, Greece -- There has been a distinct smell wafting through the narrow streets that fan out from Syntagma Square in front of Parliament in central Athens these days. It is the unmistakable peppery tang of tear gas, which has been fired with alarming regularity in a week when the Greek capital has witnessed extraordinary scenes of violence.

Read more ....