Israel Does Not Have An Iran Strategy

Image: Flickr/Prime Minister of Israel

Gabriel Scheinmann, National Interest: Israel Has No Iran Strategy

How Netanyahu can face the Middle East after the nuclear deal… before it's too late.

After a week of meetings in Israel, one thing is clear to me: Israel has no Iran strategy. Seemingly spent from the losing public campaign against the Iranian nuclear deal, not even the passage of “Adoption Day” on October 18 roused Israeli officials from their post-deal slumber. Israelis reluctantly see themselves as bystanders to their fate—a position reinforced by Russia’s intervention in Syria—relegated to pleading with an Obama administration that is still crowing from its resolute achievement. Focused on abating the recent wave of Palestinian terrorism, Israel seems listless in the post–Iran deal era.

WNU Editor: Israel has always been dependent on U.S. support and assistance .... and the U.S. has always given Israel this support and assistance. President Obama will be remembered for many things .... changing the dynamics of the U.S. - Israel alliance to get an Iranian nuclear deal will be one of those events that will be remembered for a very long time .... especially in Israel.

Does Israel Have An Effective Military Option To Stop Iran's Nuclear Program?

Israeli F-16 fighter. Getting ready to visit Iran?

Dan Arbell, CNN: Does Israel have a military option vs. Iran nuclear program?

(CNN)The Iran nuclear negotiations in Lausanne, Switzerland, reportedly have made substantive progress, inching closer toward a provisional agreement between the P5+1 and Iran. While the talks continued to unfold this week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu restated his concern about an agreement with Iran, vowing "to continue to act against any threat."

If an agreement is reached, the international spotlight will turn to Israel, in anticipation of its possible reaction. Israeli Defense Minister Moshe "Bogy" Yaalon stated that a deal is "a tragedy for the whole world." The question is, however, what can Israel really do once a deal is signed? In recent days, notable conservatives in the United States have attacked President Barack Obama's handling of the negotiations with Iran, arguing that a bad deal will force Israel's hand, leaving it with no choice but to attack Iranian targets.

But is this a realistic conclusion?

WNU Editor: Apparently any military option will only be partially effective, and weighed against the consequences .... not at all appetizing. My prediction on what Israel will do .... they will be pursuing options for stricter controls that are outlined in this WSJ post .... Israel Readies Next Steps to Counter Any Iran Nuclear Deal (Wall Street Journal).

Update: U.S. Secretary of Defense Carter is still brandishing the military option .... Carter Says Iran Nuclear Deal Would Not Limit US Military Options (Military.com) .... more here.

What If Israel Attacked Iran's Plutonium Reactor?

Satellite images, released by Google, show how Iran's heavy water reactor and heavy water plant at Arak has changed over the past year. New buildings are highlighted on the right-hand panel. The IR-40 reactor was inspected by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in October 2011. The agency said in its recent report that, "construction of the facility was ongoing and the coolant heat exchangers had been installed". BBC

Iran’s Vexing Plutonium Reactor -- S. Fred Singer, Washington Times

A successful Israeli strike against it would ‘shuffle the deck’

Iran has been constructing a “heavy-water” nuclear reactor near Arak, capable of producing weapons-grade Plutonium-239 — sufficient for about one bomb per year. This program is in addition to the ongoing production of fissionable Uranium-235 by isotope enrichment with centrifuges.

The Geneva Interim Agreement, announced in November, would stop Iran’s reactor construction — at least according to the White House press release. Iran does not share this interpretation. Negotiations are continuing in Vienna to try to settle this dispute.

Meanwhile, Israel, not bound by the Geneva Agreement, may decide to bomb the Arak reactor and eliminate one sure route for Iran to gain a nuclear weapon. In 1981, Israel bombed Osiris, a similar reactor, under construction in Iraq. In Sept 2007, in Operation “Mivtza Bustan” (“Orchard”), Israel destroyed a plutonium reactor being built by Syria — with North Korean assistance and financed by Iran — at al-Kibar, Syria. (Ironically, the term “bustan,” identical in both Arabic and Hebrew, is not of Semitic origin, but a loan word from classical Persian.)

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My Comment: I do not see such an attack happening now .... and in the short term. Israel's military capabilities are limited, and any strike against Iran will need to target more than one site.

Iran Is Preparing For War

Open Zion's Peter Beinart offers his prediction on whether Israel will attack Iran soon.

Iran Preparing For Nuclear War -- Reza Khalili, Washington Times

West needs harsher sanctions now.

Despite the statement by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel’s red line on Iran’s illicit nuclear program could be reached by next spring, Iranian officials are adamant that war is close.

In analyzing Mr. Netanyahu’s recent speech to the United Nations General Assembly, an Iranian nuclear policy strategist boasted to state media outlet irannuc.ir that Mr. Netanyahu’s red line is based on the current enrichment process to the 20 percent level at the Fordow nuclear facility. A recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report shows Iran has 90 kilograms of 20 percent enrichment, needing just 130 kilograms of such material for a nuclear bomb, which the Israelis conclude will happen by next spring.

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My Comment: Iran is not the only country preparing for war. In a must read post from the Daily Beast, other countries are planning and getting ready for war.

What Could Life In Tel Aviv Be Like If Israel Bombed Iran

If Israel Bombed Iran, What Could Life In Tel Aviv Be Like? -- Anat Berko, Washington Post

For months, Israel has threatened to strike Iran’s nuclear sites. The United States has urged restraint. If such an operation were launched, how might Tel Aviv react?

“Our pilots,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proclaims on the Channel 2 TV news, “carried out their difficult and dangerous task for the sake of the state of Israel. They have struck several Iranian nuclear facilities and have returned safely.”

For months, Israeli officials had been debating whether a strike would be worth the risk. I’m relieved they have finally acted, but I worry: What if the reactors and other nuclear facilities, which are scattered throughout Iran, some buried deep underground, aren’t entirely destroyed?

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My Comment: One person's view of what an Israeli strike on Iran will do to places like Tel Aviv. What's my own take .... my personal analysis paints a far more darker picture. It must be the Russian in me .... we always assume the worst ... and when it does not happen ... consider ourselves lucky.

Gathering War Clouds In The Middle East

Iranian naval ships take part in a naval parade near the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran. The country has boasted about their new high-powered speed boats - designed to swarm enemy ships

Why I'm Convinced Israel Will Bomb Iran In Weeks: Netanyahu Is Running Out Of Patience And Is 'Closer Than Ever' To Launching A Strike -- Michael Burleigh, Daily Mail

For months there have been international discussions about the threat a nuclear Iran would present - most notably to its avowed enemy, Israel, which Iran has vowed to 'erase from the map'.

Aggressive, war-mongering rhetoric has been bubbling in Israel as a result. And seeing no signs that slow-burning international sanctions are effective, Israel is coming to the view it should no longer entrust others with its own security.

This summer has an ominous feel, like August 1914. In the Middle East, the Arab Spring has replaced several autocrats, not with Western-style liberals, but with the extremist Muslim Brotherhood.

The civil war raging in Syria is threatening to spill over into Lebanon and Jordan, and is really a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia to establish dominance over the region.

Meanwhile, looming in the background is the longer-term crisis caused by Iran’s devious and dogged pursuit of nuclear weapons.

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My Comment: I am still skeptical that Israel will launch a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. The distances are too great, and the targets are too numerous to have a lasting impact on Iran's nuclear program. But if Israel was to strike, it would be to drag in everyone else and hope that in the ensuing chaos international pressure will then be put on Iran to stop it's enrichment program. But I have doubts that Iran will listen.

An Iran-Strike Worst-Case Scenario

Photo: iStockphoto/Thinkstock

What An Israeli Attack On Iran Will Mean For The Muslims -- Haaretz

If Israel bombs Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran is likely to mobilize on the basis of the much wider support it can muster in the Muslim world.

Iran's nuclear program, which could have the capacity to produce weapons-grade nuclear material sooner rather than later, remains a principal focus of international attention, despite a vast international policy crisis vis-a-vis the Middle East, due to the developments engendered by the so-called Arab Spring. The harshest sanctions regime applied in modern times is in place against Iran, even as other covert efforts, including a cyber-war intended to sabotage Iran's research, have been carried out, presumably by Israel and the United States. As a result of this global pressure, Iran has come back to the negotiating table to see if it can strike a deal that will alleviate some of the pressure.

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My Comment: Sober reading.

Will Israel Attack Iran Before The U.S. Presidential Election

October Surprise -- Fred Kaplan, Slate

Why Israel may feel pressure to attack Iran before the U.S. presidential election.

Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program resume in Turkey this weekend, attended by delegates from the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany. Not much is likely to happen.

The big obstacle is this: The Iranians want a pocketful of nuclear weapons. Or, more to the point: The Iranians have always aspired to be the major power in their region. Several of the region’s powers—Israel, Pakistan, and India—have nukes, so Iran wants some too.

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My Comment: I am doubtful that such an attack will occur. I am sure some planners have worked out this scenario ... but politically ... I just do not see the Israelis going through with such an act.

What Happens After An Israeli Attack On Iran

What Happens After Israel Attacks Iran -- Ehud Eiran, Foreign Affairs

Public Debate Can Prevent a Strategic Disaster

Since its birth in 1948, Israel has launched numerous preemptive military strikes against its foes. In 1981 and 2007, it destroyed the nuclear reactors of Iraq and Syria, operations that did not lead to war. But now, Israelis are discussing the possibility of another preemptive attack -- against Iran -- that might result in a wider conflict.

The public debate in Israel about whether Jerusalem should order a strike on Iran’s nuclear program is surprisingly frank. Politicians and policymakers often discuss the merits of an attack in public; over the past year, for example, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have sparred regularly and openly with former Mossad director Meir Dagan, the most prominent opponent of an Israeli operation. But much of the conversation is focused on whether Israel should strike, not on what might happen if it does -- in other words, the result on the “day after.”

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My Comment: What's my take .... I belong to the 'doom and gloom' crowd when it comes to this issue.

Is War With Iran Closer than We Think? (A Commentary)

Image from Stefano Torelli - World in Progress

WAR With IRAN? It's Closer Than You Think.... -- Global Guerillas

Israel's hawks are VERY close to manufacturing a full scale war with Iran. On Monday the 28th of November, it used special operations forces (referred to below as the "Hand of God") to blow up a portion of an Iranian Nuclear facility near Isfahan (confirmed by satellite imagery). This follows on the heels of another explosion at Tehran facility that killed an Iranian general.

What's even more worrisome is that Israeli hawks are actively claiming responsibility for this sabotage (from the Times of London):

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My Comment: I doubt (in the short term) that Israel or Iran will want to start a war. Iran has enormous economic and political problems at home, and Israel is more focused on the Arab spring and what it is doing in neighboring countries like Egypt and Syria. In fact .... Israeli officials have gone out of their way to make the point that an attack on Iran is not imminent. But .... U.S. officials are admitting that they are not sure on what are Israel's real true intentions .... or if Israel will even notify them should they decide to strike at Iran's nuclear facilities.

Why Has Israel Not Bombed Iran Yet? -- A Commentary

Why Hasn't Israel Bombed Iran (Yet)? -- Bret Stephens, Wall Street Journal

The military risks are large; the political risks could be even bigger.

Why hasn't Israel bombed Iran yet? It's a question I often get from people who suppose I have a telepathic hotline to Benjamin Netanyahu's brain. I don't, but for a long time I was confident that an attack would happen in the first six months of this year. Since it didn't, it's worth thinking through why.

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My Comment: Long time readers of this blog know that I have always been skeptical of an Israeli attack against Iran's nuclear facilities. My reasons why are simple .... (1) the distance is too great, (2) there are too many targets to hit, (3) Israel has limited military resources for such a strike, (4) Iran's defenses can be formidable if they are aware of an Israeli strike and even more so if a second wave from Israel is needed to complete the strike, (5) unsure of Arab reaction to Israeli jets flying over their territory, (6) political reaction from Israel's allies after a strike, (7) sanctions and other international measures against the Israeli state, (8) retaliatory strikes and probable war against Hamas and Hezbollah, (9) political protests and opposition within the Israeli state itself.

Onj the flip side I know that there will be a military strike when there are 4 U.S. aircraft carrier groups in the region, a heavy U.S. military presence in Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar. All of America's B-2 bombers are at Diego Garcia. Israel is stockpiled with ordinances, patriot missile batteries, and the Iron Dome system is fully active. And on the political front .... there has to be political unity in the U.S., most of Europe, and Arab governments are (at worse) neutral.

Hmmmm .... the last time that I looked, we are nowhere near in having sufficient assets (and the necessary political climate) to conduct a successful military strike against Iran .... not even close.

An Analysis From Israel On Its Options Against Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program

Learning To Love The Bomb -- Haaretz

It is possible that years ago, the problem of Iran's nuclear project could have been solved by one tough blow and with relatively minimal risk. At that time, the project was dependent on one facility: the uranium conversion plant in Isfahan. If it had been bombed, Iran would have lost large quantities of raw material for uranium enrichment, and its nuclear program would have been set back years. But nothing happened, and the Iranians went ahead and dispersed their facilities and materials into fortified bunkers that would be far more difficult to hit.

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My Comment: An excellent review of Israel's history with Iran's nuclear weapons program and its plans to counter it.

Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum (If You Wish For Peace, Prepare For War)

Obama Is Pushing Israel Toward War -- The Wall Street Journal

President Obama can't outsource matters of war and peace to another state.

Events are fast pushing Israel toward a pre-emptive military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, probably by next spring. That strike could well fail. Or it could succeed at the price of oil at $300 a barrel, a Middle East war, and American servicemen caught in between. So why is the Obama administration doing everything it can to speed the war process along?

At July's G-8 summit in Italy, Iran was given a September deadline to start negotiations over its nuclear programs. Last week, Iran gave its answer: No.

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My Comment: If this continues to drag on .... yes .... it is a given .... Israel will launch a preemptive strike. They have always done so in the past, and I have confidence that they will do so in the future.

Unfortunately .... I am of the opinion that this could have all been avoided. But because of a lack of leadership from the White House, and the involvement of many powers who favor doing trade with Iran (China, Russia, Middle Eastern countries, European countries, etc.) .... the environment is now being set up for the Israelis to respond.

This response .... even if it is a minimal action .... will be the catalyst for war on multiple fronts involving numerous countries and alliances. By virtue of the large American presence in the region, I am sure that U.S. forces will become involved on some level .... especially in protecting the Saudi oil fields, and insuring the safe transport of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel may be forced to attack Iran .... but it will be the rest of the world that will suffer and it will be the U.S. who will be shedding blood.

Iran And Israel -- A Commentary

From The New York Times:

RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA — A story is doing the rounds in Washington about an Arab ambassador whose view of Barack Obama’s overtures to Iran is: “We don’t mind you seeking engagement, but please, no marriage!”

It’s sometimes hard to know if the Arabs or Israelis are more alarmed — or alarmist — about Iran’s nuclear program and regional ambitions.

A comment a few months back from an Iranian official to the effect that the small desert kingdom of Bahrain was historically a province of Iran sent fears of exportable Shia revolution into overdrive in Sunni Arab capitals. Iran apologized, but the damage was done.

After Iran’s American-aided push into Iraq through the establishment of a Shia-dominated government there, the Bahrain talk set frayed Arab nerves on edge. Prince Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, called on Arab states to “deal with the Iranian challenge.”

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Iran Can 'Wipe Israel Out of Existence' in 11 Days -- A Commentary

From American Thinker:

Iranian Army General Commander Ataollah Salehi spoke on LBC television (video clip here) claiming it would take only 11 days "to wipe Israel out of existence." But don't worry, the announcer proclaims that "according to the shari'a and the law, it is forbidden to obtain a nuclear bomb." MEMRI translates

Voiceover: "Nothing can prevent Iranian missiles from targeting the heart of Israel, if Iran is subjected to a military strike by Israel. This was the response of the Iranian military commanders to the Israeli statements about a possible military strike against Iran, because of its insistence on obtaining nuclear energy. Yet an [Israeli] attack seems improbable to the Iranians, because Tel Aviv does not have the ability to go through a war with Tehran."

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