Will President Trump's Success With The UAE-Israel Accord Unleash More Middle East Peace Developments?

Thomas Lifson, American Thinker: Trump’s triumph with UAE-Israel accord has unleashed a ‘preference cascade’ of Middle East peace developments

A dam has broken and our media are desperate to avert our eyes from it. I am stunned at the succession of positive developments that has followed the announcement almost a month ago that the United Arab Emirates is normalizing relations with Israel. Momentum is accelerating toward the long dreamed-of goal of peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors.

I have to pinch myself after writing such a thing to remind myself that decade after decade of strenuous effort has failed, frustrating presidents of both parties and stymieing plan after plan put forth by diplomats and NGOs. Yet, improbable as it may seem to the smart set, Donald Trump, denounced as an imminent threat to world peace by almost all the academic, diplomatic, and journalistic elites, may have triggered the process of reconciling the Arab world to peaceful coexistence with Israel.

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WNU Editor: It certainly looks like some Arab countries have made the decision to reconcile with Israel, and it is all happening due to President Trump. My prediction. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will be the next Arab countries to publicly announce the normalization of relations with Israel.

With Sanctions Against Iran About To Expire In October, Will There Be An Arms Race And Will There Be A War?

Presidents Putin, Xi, and Rouhani

Washington Free Beacon: Looming Middle East Arms Race Sparks Fear of Unprecedented Regional War

Armed by Russia and China, Iran poses historic security threat, sources say

The impending expiration of an international weapons ban on Iran threatens to flood the Middle East with high-tech Russian and Chinese military equipment, a situation that senior Trump administration officials warn will spark an arms race and could ignite a massive regional war.

A United Nations ban on the sale of weapons to Iran is set to expire in mid-October despite a last-ditch effort by the Trump administration to renew it. Senior U.S. officials involved in regional discussions told the Washington Free Beacon that Israel and its traditional Arab foes are united in opposition to the arms embargo lifting.

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WNU Editor: China and Russia will sell advanced weaponry to Iran, and there will be an arms race. As to the prospect of a unprecedented regional war. For the past few decades the region has seen nothing but war. I expect this to continue.

The China-Iran Strategic Partnership Will Change The Geopolitics In The Middle East

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Tehran in 2016 (Iranian Presidency/AFP)

Shireen T Hunter, Middle East Eye: How Iran-China deal could alter the Middle East's balance of power

By giving China a permanent foothold in Iran, the agreement would enhance Beijing's regional position and undermine US strategic supremacy in the Gulf.

The Iranian government has reportedly approved a draft 25-year deal with China on economic and political cooperation. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Abbas Mousavi, said it was a proud moment for Iranian diplomacy.

Tehran has not revealed the full details of the agreement, but a previous report by the Petroleum Economist suggests that Iran is set to grant huge concessions to China, including significant discounts on oil and gas, and the ability to delay payments for up to two years and to pay in soft currencies.

China would also be granted first refusal on opportunities to become involved with any petrochemicals projects in Iran. If implemented, this agreement would make Iran highly dependent on China economically, while Beijing would acquire a large and secure source of energy, as well as a foothold in the Gulf.

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Update: The China-Iran strategic partnership, and how it can change geopolitics in the Middle East (The Print)

WNU Editor: What's my read of this partnership. From what I have read and seen so far, this is a huge win for China. They will be able to buy Iranian crude at a huge discount and on credit (two year delay in paying). And when China does pay, they will pay using "soft currencies", which in this current situation will result in payments being made with currencies that will probably depreciate over two years. The Iranians will now also open their markets to Chinese products. So expect a flood of Chinese goods that will probably wipe out Iran's business class and industry. And then there is the security aspect of this agreement. Nothing has been made public on that, but knowing the Chinese from my own 35 years of dealing with them, they will be wanting access to Iranian ports for their military ships, and the deployment of military personnel to a base or two managed by them in Iran itself. In short. Because of Iranian pride in not wanting to deal and negotiate with the U.S. (i.e. the Great Satan), it looks like they have sold their soul to the Chinese.

The Coronavirus Pandemic In The Middle East Will Intensify The Region's Unrest And Conflicts

Jeremy Bowen, BBC: Coronavirus stokes Middle East boiling points

The Middle East has many reasons to fear the coronavirus pandemic, but it has one big advantage when it comes to resisting it. Most people in the region are young.

A rough average is that at least 60% are under the age of 30. That makes them less susceptible to developing Covid-19, the illness that has killed so many people in countries with older populations.

Most governments in the region saw what was happening elsewhere and had time to impose curfews and social distancing measures.

But that is where the Middle East's advantages end. Years of strife in the world's least stable region have left weaknesses that the pandemic is sure to deepen.

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WNU Editor: The economies of the Middle East have been obliterated by this global shutdown, and any hope of a better future that many may have gone with it.

Is This The New Middle East? U.S. Military, Russian Diplomacy, And Chinese Money?

Tom O'Connor, Newsweek: The New Middle East: U.S. Military, Russia's Diplomacy and China's Money

The United States' decision to abandon its posts in northern Syria was not simply the result of an abrupt decision by President Donald Trump, but the product of a longer, systematic shift in the balance of power across the Middle East, where Russia and China have established new, leading roles.

The recent handover of U.S. military positions in Syria's northern city of Manbij to Russian forces, first reported by Newsweek, was a symbolic moment in this trend, a move that accompanied Syrian and Russian troops moving into a number of outposts once occupied by the Pentagon. The event occurred as Russian President Vladimir Putin made high-profile visits to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two close U.S. partners increasingly convinced of Russia's weight in the region.

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WNU Editor: The Middle East is becoming a very crowded place.

The Emergence Of A New Middle East Alliance With Iran At The Lead

Yossef Bodansky, OilPrice.com: New Middle East Alliance Shakes World Powers

A new bloc is emerging in the greater Middle East with the declared objectives of dominating the entire Arab world, confronting and containing the US and its allies; and controlling and benefiting from the entire hydro-carbon economy, from production to transportation.

The leading members of the new bloc are Turkey, Iran, and Qatar; with Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan submitting to the new bloc.

Russian experts call the new bloc “the Middle Eastern Entente”.

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WNU Editor: The fact that both Russia and China have "signed onto it" makes it a formidable bloc.

Is There A Breaking Point Between The U.S. And Saudi Arabia/Abu Dhabi?

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Abu Dhabi’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed

Cyril Widdershoven, OilPrice.com: OPEC’s Oil Princes Are Fighting For Survival

The already strained relationship between U.S. lawmakers and two of President Trump’s staunchest supporters, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Abu Dhabi’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, seems to be worsening. In recent days, reports have indicated that a growing number of U.S. congressmen and women is expected to pass a resolution which will end U.S. involvement in Yemen’s civil war. This resolution would represent a direct challenge to President Trump, who would then have to consider using a presidential veto. While Trump’s Middle East strategy may lack clarity, it is undeniable that both MBS and MBZ are pivotal to his influence in the region.

The hostility between Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. Congress has been particularly intense under the current president. The ongoing support by the Trump Administration of the Saudi-led military coalition fighting against the Houthi rebels in Yemen has become the latest focal point of this tension. U.S. media sources have indicated that a group within congress is considering reproducing a version of the resolution that passed the Senate 56-41 last month to rebuke the White House and Saudi Arabia following the Khashoggi murder.

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WNU Editor:  If it was not for the fracking boom that is making America energy independent, the U.S. congress would be singing a very different tune in regards to Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi.

When And Where Will The Next War Erupt In The Middle East?

Israel Defense Forces

Mohammed Ayoob, RCD/The Strategist: When Will the Next War Erupt in the Middle East?

The signs are ominous—especially in Israel and its neighbours, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza. Violence, both actual and rhetorical, has been escalating on all three fronts. Gaza could become the immediate flash point as the Palestinians’ ‘March of Return’, which began on 30 March, intensifies and Israeli retaliation becomes increasingly lethal.

On 28 September, 20,000 Palestinians marched to the Gaza–Israel border and seven of them were killed by Israeli bullets. Such confrontations are now becoming an almost daily occurrence. The march began as a civil-society movement born of the mounting economic and political frustrations over the Israeli blockade of the territory that has made life in Gaza ‘poor, nasty, brutish and short’.

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WNU Editor: The Israelis and Palestinians/Hezbollah are definitely due for a fight.

Should The Gulf States Fear A U.S. Democrat Blue Wave In November?

A soldier from the United Arab Emirates stands guard next to a UAE military plane at the airport of Yemen's southern port city of Aden August 8, 2015. REUTERS/Nasser Awad

Al-Monitor: Intel: Why the Gulf states should fear a blue wave in November

Top Democrats in Congress today introduced legislation that seeks to end US support for the air war in Yemen, highlighting the risk to the Saudi-led campaign if the minority party wins the November elections. Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md., the No. 2 Democrat in the House, endorsed the new bill along with Reps. Adam Smith, D-Wash., and Eliot Engel, D-N.Y. Smith and Engel are the likely chairmen of the armed services and foreign affairs panels if Democrats take the House. The bill was introduced by Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif. Khanna’s resolution is privileged under the War Powers Act, which stipulates expedited procedures on the House floor.

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WNU Editor:  The Democrats have already signaled that if they win the House/Senate it would not be business as usual with the Gulf states on issues like the Yemen war. So yes .... the Gulf states need to be concerned.

A New Middle Eastern Sunni Military Alliance Like NATO's?

Atlas of the Middle East Illustration by Greg Groesch/The Washington Times

Daniel Gallington and Abraham Wagner, Washington Times: A Middle East strategic alliance

The Trump administration is quietly pushing ahead with a plan for a new security and political alliance with six Gulf Arab states, Egypt and Jordan, in part to counter Iran’s expansion in the Middle East. The plan, which some in the White House and Middle East are calling an “Arab NATO” of Sunni Muslim allies can clearly be seen as one way to counter expansionism by Shi’ite Iran and referred to as the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA).

At a time when many are rethinking the utility of alliances such as NATO, this one could be a highly useful in dealing with the very real and immediate problems posed by Iran. Hopefully, it will be a subject for a summit provisionally scheduled for Washington in October.

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WNU Editor: I do not see such an alliance formally happening now. But many of these countries are cooperating today, and it is very possible that such a military alliance will be establsihed a few years from now.

These Two Men Will Decide The Future Of Peace In The Middle East

Prince Mohammed bin Salman, right, warned against trying to appease Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Business Insider/LobeLog: Striking differences between the leadership styles of Saudi Arabia's crown prince and Iran's Ayatollah could decide the future of peace in the Middle East

* Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is positioning himself to become the most powerful ruler in Saudi history.
* His rise has been accompanied with a ratcheting up of hostilities against Iran.
* The leadership styles of 78-year-old Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and 32-year-old MBS will decide the future of peace in the Middle East.


Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) is steadily consolidating power in Riyadh and positioning himself to become the most powerful ruler in Saudi history.

His rise has been accompanied with a ratcheting up of hostilities against Iran and even war rhetoric. As Saudi-Iran tensions increase, the lived experiences and leadership styles of the 78-year-old Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and 32-year-old MBS will decide the future of peace and stability in the region.

Before Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Khamenei was a political activist who opposed the dictatorship of the Shah and endured 15 years of prison, torture, and exile. He rose through the revolutionary ranks after the revolution and in 1981, was elected president.

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WNU Editor:  Two complete opposites. But Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is in his late 70s and he has a history of cancer. The future always belong to the young .... even though they may not deserve it.

Tensions In The Middle East Keep On Getting Worse

Reuters

Cyril Widdershoven, OilPrice.com: Middle East Tensions Near Boiling Point

The 38th Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit resulted in a showdown between Qatar and its Saud-led alliance counterparts.

Saudi King Salman decided to send a lower diplomatic delegation in his place, chipping away at the stability in the region. Additionally, in an unexpected move, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced that the two countries have formed a new economic and military partnership, separate from the GCC. Arab analysts have already indicated that this could deal a deadly blow to the role of the GCC.

Officially, the decision made by UAE’s ruler Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nayhan and the Saudi King is not linked to the ongoing Qatar crisis. However, the symbiosis currently showing between Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman and Abu Dhabi’s crown prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed is the main force behind this bilateral cooperation agreement.

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WNU Editor:  Tensions in the Middle East have always been high. But the defeat of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria has (and is) a positive development, albeit the aftermath may not.

Is There A Geopolitical Shift In The Middle East?

Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and Defence Minister Mohammed bin Salman during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, May 30, 2017. REUTERS/Pavel Golovkin/Pool

Cyril Widdershoven, OilPrice.com: Is This The Geopolitical Shift Of The Century?

The geopolitical reality in the Middle East is changing dramatically.

The impact of the Arab Spring, the retraction of the U.S. military, and diminishing economic influence on the Arab world—as displayed during the Obama Administration—are facts.

The emergence of a Russian-Iranian-Turkish triangle is the new reality. The Western hegemony in the MENA region has ended, and not in a shy way, but with a long list of military conflicts and destabilization.

The first visit of a Saudi king to Russia shows the growing power of Russia in the Middle East. It also shows that not only Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but also Egypt and Libya, are more likely to consider Moscow as a strategic ally.

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WNU editor: When it became known that the U.S. was negotiating with Iran on a nuclear deal .... without consulting and informing America's allies in the region .... it fundamentally changed the U.S. - Saudi alliance of the past 70 years. I remarked at the time .... and I believe it even strongly now .... that for the Saudis this was an act of betrayal that threatened their national security interests, and there had to be a response. We are now seeing what that response is .... the old alliances that formed and shaped the Middle East for years are now over, but more importantly we are now seeing the U.S. being relegated to a lesser role. Years from now historians will look and debate if the U.S. outreach to Iran was worth the cost of these alliances .... and while we will not know the answers until then, it does not look very promising today.

Will Russia And The U.S. Change The Middle East?

A fighter from Deir al-Zor military council which fights under the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) holds the council's flag in the village of Abu Fas, Hasaka province, Syria September 9, 2017. REUTERS/Rodi Said

Seth J. Frantzman, National Interest: Will America and Russia Change the Political Dynamics in the Middle East?

There are repercussions tied to America's actions in Syria that will impact the entire Middle East region.

On Tuesday, September 12, Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu sat with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. According to Russian embassy social-media posts they discussed joint cooperation against Islamic State. This comes on the heels of the Syrian army reaching the city of Deir ez-Zor on the Euphrates River in eastern Syria and breaking a two-and-a-half-year siege. Russia has played a key role in the Syrian army’s successes, which increasingly means that Russian-backed Syrian forces are coming into contact with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). On September 16th the US-led coalition said a Russian airstrike east of the Euphrates river wounded several members of the SDF. As ISIS declines, its vacuum is filled with groups whose agendas are not the same and, in the case of Washington, whose policy remains unclear in eastern Syria. That is leading to greater Iranian influence across Iraq and Syria, and it leaves U.S. allies in the Gulf, Israel and on the ground in Syria wondering what comes next.

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WNU Editor: For the past two years I have been commenting that all roads in the Middle East now lead to Moscow .... Russia Now Calls The Shots In The Middle East (August 4, 2017). I cannot say the same today .... the dynamics have changed. To put it bluntly .... what was unthinkable only a year ago is now happening on the battlefields in the Middle East .... U.S., Russian generals talk face-to-face on Syria (Reuters). The U.S. and its allies have been on a tear in the Middle East for the 6 months .... not only destroying the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria but also establishing permanent bases in Syria .... Turkish State Media Exposes Secret U.S. Military Bases In Syria Potentially Endangering Troops (July 20, 2017). Will the Trump administration abandon these allies when the war is over .... I doubt it. Defense Secretary Mattis and Chief Staff John Kelly spent years fighting the wars in this part of the world .... they primarily see Iran as the main threat, and they have the ear of the President. These are men who do not cut and run .... they are going to make sure that a U.S. presence will be there for the foreseeable future .... if not beyond. Will Russia provoke a fight over this U.S. presence .... I doubt it. Sentiment is growing in Moscow that after the Islamic State has been defeated, attention should be on finding a peaceful resolution with the the remaining rebel held regions of Syria .... including the Kurdish regions of northern Syria. The Syrian war is a drain on the Russian economy, and while there is still public support for Russia's involvement in Syria, there is zero support to go head-to head against the U.S. on this battlefield. As to what Iran and its allies may want .... that is another story. Bbut as the war tapers down, pressure on Iran and its militias to leave will grow .... and if they do not, they will be seen as the occupying power. Tehran has some big decisions to make in the coming months .... and my prediction is that they are not going to leave even if everyone else wants them to. Once that happens .... things may get messy.

The Next Middle East War Will Be Between Sunni Saudi Arabia And Shia Iran For Regional Predominance

Joschka Fischer, Project Syndicate: The Middle East’s Next War

BERLIN – With the retaking of Mosul in northern Iraq, the Islamic State (ISIS) could soon be a thing of the past. But the defeat of ISIS and the demise of its self-proclaimed Iraqi-Syrian caliphate won’t bring peace to the Middle East, or even an end to the Syrian tragedy. Rather, it is likely to open a new chapter in the region’s bloody and chaotic history – one no less dangerous than the previous chapters since the fall of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I.

The continuation of this violent pattern seems almost certain because the region remains unable to resolve internal conflicts on its own, or to create anything like a resilient framework for peace. Instead, it remains trapped somewhere between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.

Western powers are hardly blameless for the Middle East’s woes. Any mention of the Sykes-Picot Agreement, by which Great Britain and France partitioned the post-Ottoman territories, still incites such rage in the Arab world that it seems as if the plan, devised in secret in 1916, had been conceived only yesterday.

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WNU Editor: Joschka Fischer also acknowledges the impact that Kurdish aspirations are having in destabilising the Middle East. As to what is my take on this post .... Joschka Fischer spends a lot of time blaming (and explaining) how the West contributed to the current crisis situation in the Middle East .... and how their decisions in the past have helped to produce the situation where we are today. Fair enough. But these conflicts have been percolating long before Europe became interested in the Middle East, and one can make the argument that the Turks with their Ottoman Empire and later the European powers followed by the U.S. only delayed the inevitable .... Shiites and Sunnis waging war and conflict over lands that they have been fighting for since the beginning of Islam. The only difference now is that large populations, oil wealth, technology, and access to better weapons have made these ancient conflicts more widespread and destructive .... and coupled with mass communications and social media .... easier to promote and maintain. As for the West .... Russia .... China .... the rest of the world .... we are all rapidly becoming spectators. And while we are involved to a certain degree, the trend is accelerating for future wars in the region to be started (and conducted) primarily by the people who live in this region, and their only expectation from us is to provide minimal military aide.

The Next Phase Of Wars And Conflicts In The Middle East

Shlomo Ben-Ami, The Strategist: The next phase of Middle East conflict

With the battles of Mosul and Raqqa dislodging the Islamic State (ISIS) from its strongholds in Syria and Iraq, and the Syrian civil war becoming a war of attrition, the Middle East’s most acute conflicts are evolving fast. But that doesn’t mean they will soon be resolved.

ISIS’s self-proclaimed caliphate was never a state that could be driven to unconditional surrender, meaning that the battles of Mosul and Raqqa were never going to be decisive, even if they did eliminate ISIS sanctuaries. As ISIS’s spread into Libya and Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula underscores, there are plenty of loosely controlled areas available to be penetrated.

For now, ISIS has shifted its strategy to planning and inspiring terrorist attacks in the Middle East, Europe, and even Southeast Asia. Its next step could be to destabilise Arab regimes from within—a strategy that cannot be countered by the international coalitions now closing in on Raqqa.

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WNU Editor: The only part of this commentary that I disagreed with was this ....

.... America’s Sunni allies are drawn to Trump, partly because he has little interest in the kinds of democratic reforms that his predecessor Barack Obama used to push

Aside from his Cairo speech and a few others, pushing democratic reforms in the Middle East was not President Obama's priority. His first priority when he was elected was to get U.S. troops out of Iraq ASAP. As for America's Sunni allies being drawn to Trump .... America's Sunni allies have always been close to the U.S. (not because of Trump). What changed in the past few years was President Obama's outreach to Iran .... his decision to not keep Israel and Arab allies in the loop .... and then making a nuclear deal with the mullahs in Tehran. This broke the trust, and it is only now (albeit with many obstacles) that this trust is coming back. As for the rest of this commentary .... a thumbs up.

Update: Hezbollah. Hamas. The Palestinians. These are conflicts (against Israel) that should also not be ignored.

5 Maps That Explain Today's Middle East

(Click on Image to Enlarge)

George Friedman and Kamran Bokhari, MauldinEconomics: Medieval Times in the Modern Middle East

If geopolitics studies how nations behave, then the nation is singularly important. Nation-states are the defining feature of the modern political era. They give people a collective identity and a pride of place… even when their borders are artificially drawn, as they were in the Middle East.

Constantly in conflict with the notion of nationalism, especially in such a volatile region, are transnational issues. These are issues like religion and ethnicity that cannot be contained by a country’s borders. Arab nation-states are now failing in the Middle East, and though their failure is primarily due to their governments’ inability to create viable political economies, transnational issues—especially the competition between the Sunni and Shiite sects of Islam, as well as the struggle within the Sunni Arab realm—are expediting the process.

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WNU Editor: Yup .... these 5 maps sum up today's Middle East.

4 Maps That Explain The Dynamics And Inherited Divisions In The Middle East And North Africa

Mauldin Economics

George Friedman, Business Insider/ Mauldin Economics: 4 maps that explain wars in the Middle East and North Africa

The Middle East and North Africa region runs from the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian Ocean and from Turkey to Yemen. The bulk of the region is along five waterways: The Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, Persian Gulf, Black Sea, and Caspian Sea.

Here are four maps that explain the dynamics and inherited divisions in these regions.

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WNU Editor: The fault lines in the Middle East is religious as this map illustrates (link here).

An Analysis On What Is Next In The Middle East

Patrick Cockburn, The Independent: Isis will eventually lose the battle for Mosul – but by then it will look like Aleppo

As winners and losers emerge in the wartorn Middle East, Patrick Cockburn analyses the prospects for 2017.

Winners and losers are beginning to emerge in the wars that have engulfed the wider Middle East since the US and UK invaded Iraq in 2003. The most striking signs of this are the sieges of east Aleppo in Syria and Mosul in Iraq, which have much in common though they were given vastly different coverage by the Western media. In both cities, Salafi-jihadi Sunni Arab insurgents were defending their last big urban strongholds against the Iraqi Army, in the case of Mosul, and the Syrian Army, in the case of east Aleppo.

The capture of east Aleppo means that President Bashar al-Assad has essentially won the war and will stay in power. The Syrian security forces advanced and the armed resistance collapsed more swiftly than had been expected. Some 8,000 to 10,000 rebel fighters, pounded by artillery and air strikes and divided among themselves, were unable to stage a last stand in the ruins of the enclave, as happened in Homs three years ago, and is happening in Mosul now.

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WNU Editor: For the Middle East .... 2017 is going to be just as messy and just as bloody as 2016.

Iran And Saudi Arabia Are Tearing The Middle East Apart

Max Fisher, New York Times: How the Iranian-Saudi Proxy Struggle Tore Apart the Middle East

Behind much of the Middle East’s chaos — the wars in Syria and Yemen, the political upheaval in Iraq and Lebanon and Bahrain — there is another conflict.

Saudi Arabia and Iran are waging a struggle for dominance that has turned much of the Middle East into their battlefield. Rather than fighting directly, they wield and in that way worsen the region’s direst problems: dictatorship, militia violence and religious extremism.

The history of their rivalry tracks — and helps to explain — the Middle East’s disintegration, particularly the Sunni-Shiite sectarianism both powers have found useful to cultivate. It is a story in which the United States has been a supporting but constant player, most recently by backing the Saudi war in Yemen, which kills hundreds of civilians. These dynamics, scholars warn, point toward a future of civil wars, divided societies and unstable governments.

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WNU Editor: This conflict has been ongoing since the birth of Islam .... and if we have learned anything in the past few decades .... our ability to influence events in the region are severely limited. Stay engaged .... yes. Help our allies .... yes. But to get directly involved in a sectarian/religious war .... that is a recipe for disaster.