A Look at the Taliban’s Growing Combat Capability

Alec Worsnop, Modern War Institute: From Guerrilla to Maneuver Warfare: A Look at the Taliban’s Growing Combat Capability

The growing territorial reach exercised by the Taliban poses a notable threat to the stability of the Afghan government. The insurgents’ persistence and adaptability points to an underappreciated trend. While guerrilla warfare has been consistently identified as a way for less powerful actors to counter much stronger fighting forces, treating the tactic as a “primitive’” weapon of the weak underestimates the complexity involved in fighting guerrilla wars, let alone transitioning into movement warfare. Guerrilla warfare requires reliable small units that can fire and maneuver to retain the tactical offensive against much stronger foes.

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WNU Editor: Bottom line .... the Afghan Taliban are becoming more capable as a fighting force.

This Is Why The Taliban Cannot Win In Afghanistan

Seth G. Jones, Foreign Policy: Why the Taliban Isn't Winning in Afghanistan

Too Weak for Victory, Too Strong for Defeat.

We must face facts,” remarked Senator John McCain in August 2017, “we are losing in Afghanistan and time is of the essence if we intend to turn the tide.” He is not the only one who has argued that the Taliban are on the march. “The Taliban are getting stronger, the government is on the retreat, they are losing ground to the Taliban day by day,” Abdul Jabbar Qahraman, a retired Afghan general who was the Afghan government’s military envoy to Helmand Province until 2016, told the New York Times over the summer. Media outlets have likewise proclaimed that “The Taliban do look a lot like they are winning” and that this is “The war America can’t win.”

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WNU Editor: The above analysis is spot on.

Update: I am not optimistic that this will succeed .... Pentagon pushing for more aggressive Afghan military in 2018: report (The Hill). More here .... Top US commander wants more aggressive Afghan push this year (AP).

A Look At The Afghan-Taliban Three Years After The Death Of Its Leader

Photo: A file photo of the man believed to be Mullah Omar.

Catherine Hirst, The Interpreter: The Taliban three years after Mullah Omar

This month marks the three year anniversary of the death of Mullah Mohammed Omar, the infamous, one-eyed cleric who led the Taliban for more than sixteen years.

Omar was a fascinating figure on many fronts. Famously reclusive and enigmatic, no Western journalist ever met him and he wasn’t seen in public after 2001. Under his rule, a stringent formulation of Shariah Law was implemented in Afghanistan, including amputation for theft and stoning for adultery. A veteran of the Soviet-Afghan war, Omar and Osama bin Laden were close colleagues and this was an important factor in the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan. After the fall of the Taliban, Omar managed to evade capture for twelve years, despite an intensive US-led manhunt and a $US10 million bounty. He died of natural causes in 2013.

Beyond his notorious exploits, influence, and the mysteries that surround him, Omar’s life and death provide fascinating insights into the role of individual leaders in the Jihadi system.

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WNU Editor: Leaders are important .... but it is the ideals and philosophy behind them that are even more important. Unfortunately ... the continuous refusal .... primarily many from the West .... to even acknowledge let alone understand and confront the importance of radical Islam to these groups .... will only mean that they will never be properly challenged.

Coming Triumph Of The Taliban And Pakistan? -- A Commentary From India

From Times Of India:

Even as US military commanders seek a troop increase in Afghanistan to check a resurgent Taliban, US voter support is fast eroding. A CNN poll in September showed that 58% of Americans oppose the war while only 39% support it. Among Democrats, only 23% support the war, and the number keeps falling.

President Obama initially called the war in Afghanistan one of necessity, and proposed a big US troop increase. But with voter support slipping, Obama now says he will not rush the decision. Democratic Congressmen say in private that US withdrawal is a matter of time. One told me, ‘‘The British couldn’t pacify Afghanistan, the Russians couldn’t, and we can’t either.’’

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My Comment: His observations on the American political scene are very accurate, and it is what India fears the most. If the Taliban assume power in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, the worst case scenario will then unfold, with India being the primary target for Islamic extremists (like the Taliban) to attack.

I personally do not believe this will happen. Pakistan is one big country, and many people do not like the Taliban. The same can be said about Afghanistan. The Afghanistan of today is not what it was like in 1989 - 1992 when the Taliban took over. Even if popular sentiment in the West is to withdraw, a military/security presence will always be felt in the country to insure that the Taliban will never be able to govern properly or to function as a viable entity.

What will probably and eventually happen is a some form of agreement between the Kabul Government, NATO and Allied forces, and some major elements of the Taliban. This same strategy was used to great effect in Iraq .... and many believe that it will also be successful in Afghanistan.

All that I can say is that I hope that they are right.

Two Articles That Explore Possible Future Talks With Some Members Of The Taliban

FRIENDS? FOES? Backers of a pro-Taliban cleric in the Swat Valley who signed a truce with Pakistan. B. K. Bangash/Associated Press

Dreaming of Splitting the Taliban -- The New York Times

HERE is a proposition that is bound to cut deep into the national psyche: Should the United States seek to negotiate with some of the same people who gave sanctuary to Osama bin Laden prior to the Sept. 11 attacks?

President Obama is sending an additional 17,000 American troops to Afghanistan, as part of his effort to try to put a tourniquet on the hemorrhaging war effort there. He has ordered a strategic review of United States policy there, and tasked a diplomatic behemoth — Richard C. Holbrooke, architect of the Dayton accords — to try to do in Afghanistan what he did in Bosnia. And he has, within days of assuming the presidency, taken ownership of the war in Afghanistan, with all of the Vietnam-era references to quagmire that come with it.

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Is Talking To Taliban The Right Approach? -- CNN:

(CNN) -- President Obama says the United States could be open to reaching out to some moderates in the Taliban in a manner similar to successful efforts with Sunni militants in Iraq.

But two analysts Monday expressed separate cautions about such an effort.

In an interview published in The New York Times this weekend, Obama said some military leaders believe part of the success in Iraq has come from reaching out to Sunni militants there.

Regarding the Taliban in Afghanistan, the president said that while the situation is much more complex than in Iraq, "There may be some comparable opportunities in Afghanistan and Pakistan."

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My Comment: What is Afghanistan .... a few distinct ethnic groups, followed by 400 different and distinct tribal groups, followed by thousands of villages and extended families ... and the Taliban is networked everywhere.

The goal of talking to the Taliban may be a noble one .... but from where I am standing I would think it will be quite an undertaking to find the ones that you should talk to.

This is something that the Afghans themselves must work out .... and I can only hope that they will be able to work it out sooner, rather than later.