Is The Pentagon's Budget Facing Cuts In The Future?

Savannah Wooten, Business Insider: The end is near for the Pentagon's endless budget explosion

* The US spends more on its military than the next nine countries combined.
* The defense budget is bloated and includes plenty of money that could be better used elsewhere.
* During a national pandemic, it is unconscionable that this money isn't being spent on Americans in need.
* Savannah Wooten is an activist and nonprofit professional.
* This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author.

The US is, quite literally, addicted to war. While it's no secret that the country has a long history of militarism, the sheer scale of the ongoing excess is staggering. Yet the tide may finally be turning, as Americans begin to take hawkish lawmakers to task for their defense industry contributions and unfettered support for costly forever wars.

As our leaders continue to mismanage the COVID-19 crisis, it's become clear that the nation has abjectly failed to prepare for one of the most severe national security threats of our lifetimes. And it calls into question just how necessary two decades of massive defense spending increases were when the government has proven ineffective against the most deadly threat the country has faced in that time.

US warfighting since 9/11 has cost $6.4 trillion, 770,000 lives, and counting. We spend more on our military than the next nine countries combined. Every year, Congress authorizes hundreds of billions of dollars for the Pentagon, consuming most of our discretionary budget that could otherwise fund programs that meet Americans' needs.

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WNU Editor: I have lost count over the years on how many opinion posts and commentaries that I have read predicting that the US defense budget is going to be cut. It never happens. And with so many invested in the Pentagon budget to continue to grow, I just do not see it happening anytime soon.

Drop In Fuel Prices And Reduced Operations Is Freeing Up Billions Of Defense Dollars

Fueling the force

Staff Sgt. Aaron Fachini, the 96th Fuels Flight, completes his inspection of the 1.1 million gallon fuel tanks on the 33rd Fighter Wing side of Eglin Air Force Base, Fla May 6. The tanks are inspected daily for operation, leaks and corrosion control measures. The 131 Airmen and civilians of the fuels flight fall under the 96th Logistics Readiness Squadron and were recently named best fuels flight in Air Force Materiel Command. (U.S. Air Force photo/Samuel King Jr.)

Michael Baskin and Konrad Gessler, War On The Rocks: How Plummeting Fuel Prices and Reduced Operations Could Free Up Billions of Defense Dollars

The U.S. Department of Defense is one of the world’s largest consumers of petroleum, yet it relies on an industrial-era system to plan for volatility in global oil markets. Prioritizing stability over efficiency, the system is not designed to respond nimbly to shocks in the oil market like the one happening right now due to COVID-19. As global oil prices have dropped from $60 a barrel to the $20s, billions of dollars are becoming available within the Pentagon’s fuel operations for the remainder of fiscal year 2020 and potentially heading into FY2021 — a rare positive in a time of significant uncertainty.

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WNU Editor: I am willing to bet that this extra cash has already been spent.

Does The U.S.Defense Budget Need To Increase Even More?

Wikipedia

Max Boot, Business Insider/Foreign Policy: America's military doesn't have enough money to do its job

* Trump has failed to fulfill his campaign promise of beefing up the military's budget.
* As a result the US military's readiness, performance, and accident reduction efforts have faltered, and America's ability to keep peace worldwide may be affected.
* Congress has been unable to unilaterally increase spending.

Sherlock Holmes once solved the mystery of a disappearing racehorse by noting “the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.” But, a Scotland Yard detective objected, “The dog did nothing in the night-time.” Holmes’s laconic reply: “That was the curious incident.”

Today, in Washington, the dog that isn’t barking is the defense budget. It is the biggest issue that no one — at least no one outside the defense policy community‚ is talking about.

There are plenty of warning signs that the defense budget is too small to meet the United States’ global commitments, and that military readiness is suffering with dangerous consequences. Back in June, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told the House Armed Services Committee that having returned to the military after four years of retirement, he was “shocked by what I’ve seen with our readiness to fight.”

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WNU Editor: It is people like the above author Max Boot, Sen. John McCain, the Bush administration, etc. who supported and pushed for America to get involved in multiple wars and conflicts since the Iraq war in 2003. And since the money is no longer there to support it .... they want to spend more. President Trump did not get elected on an interventionist platform .... and getting involved in multiple conflicts is a guarantee that over time America's military will be a shell of what it is today, regardless of how much money is poured into it.

Why Is It So Hard To Trim The Pentagon's Budget

F-35 Production Line

William Hartung, Mother Jones/Tom Dispatch: Why Can't We Rein In This Ridiculous Military Spending?

William Hartung on fear, greed, and the cash cow Congress won't touch.

Through good times and bad, regardless of what's actually happening in the world, one thing is certain: In the long run, the Pentagon budget won't go down.

It's not that the budget has never been reduced. At pivotal moments, like the end of World War II as well as the war's end in Korea and Vietnam, there were indeed temporary downturns, as there was after the Cold War. More recently, the Budget Control Act of 2011 threw a monkey wrench into the Pentagon's plans for funding that would go ever onward and upward by putting a cap on the money Congress could pony up for it. The remarkable thing, though, is not that such moments have occurred, but how modest and short-lived they've proved to be.

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WNU Editor: Yup .... when it comes to U.S. defense spending, there are just too many hands in the till. On a side note .... my Chinese contacts are telling me the same thing is happening on defense spending in China, and it is one of the main reasons why President Xi has cracked down on the military using corruption as his excuse to fire some generals. Increases in the Chinese military budget are slowing down, and there has been blow-back from the military and from the industries that support it. Hence .... the crackdown.

What The President Should Do With The Pentagon’s $610 Billion Budget

Wikipedia

Larry Korb, FOX News: The Next U.S. President and the Pentagon’s $610 Billion Budget

The next woman or man to occupy the Oval Office will have to make hard choices about how to spend our defense dollars to deal with current and future defense challenges.

First in defense dollars are policy. Not allocating sufficient funds to the Pentagon or allowing it to spend scarce resources on the wrong items will make it more difficult to protect our vital national security interests. On the other hand, spending too much will undermine our ability to fund other national security components, like foreign aid and homeland defense that also contribute to our security, or weaken our economic strength which is the foundation of a strong national security. Second, no matter how much this nation spends on defense, we cannot buy perfect security.

WNU Editor: This is one plan (among many) to rationalize the Pentagon's budget. My prediction .... good luck.

Was It Always President Obama's Goal To Shrink The U.S. Military?

Mark Moyar, Wall Street Journal: How Obama Shrank the Military

He’s used the budget sequester to accomplish what looks to have been his political goal from the start.

News last month of the U.S. Army’s decision to cut 40,000 active-duty soldiers, shrinking to 450,000 by 2017, drew fusillades inside the Beltway. Sen. John McCain assailed “another dangerous consequence of budget-driven strategy.” Adam Smith, ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, fumed: “Sequestration and the Budget Control Act, which are responsible for slashing the defense budget, exist because the Republican Party held our economy hostage and threatened to default on our loans.”

These sound bites might bewilder Americans unfamiliar with the details of sequestration. Explanation is in order.

To start at the beginning: In 2011 Democrats controlled the White House and Senate, but Republicans promising fiscal restraint had swept the 2010 elections and controlled the House. That set up an inevitable confrontation, which culminated in the summer of 2011.

The federal government was on track to blow through its debt ceiling—the maximum amount of borrowing permitted by law—in early August. The White House needed Congress to raise the limit. Republicans demanded spending cuts in exchange. It is true, then, that the Budget Control Act of 2011 resulted from Republicans’ use of the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip.

WNU editor: The New York Times editorial board is on-board for these cuts .... Military Cutbacks Make Sense (NYT editorial) .... and the NYT usually mirrors what the White House wants the public to know.

Sequestrations Toll On The U.S. Military

From left, Army Lt. Gen. James L. Huggins, Gen. John F. Campbell and Maj. Gen. John M. Murray explain specific impending cuts and realignments within the Army's force structure following a briefing by U.S. Army Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, chief of staff of the Army, at the Pentagon, June 25, 2013. DOD photo by Glenn Fawcett

Sequester Already Taking Toll on Military -- Max Boot, Commentary

The news media have, by and large, stopped writing about sequestration and Congress has stopped agitating about it. So it stands to reason that it’s not that big of a deal, right? Surely the doomsayers who predicted grave consequences from willy-nilly cutting $1 trillion from the budget over the next decade–including more than $500 billion in defense cuts–have been proven wrong. Not quite. In fact, sequestration is already taking a serious toll on our military readiness–and the impact is only going to get worse over time.

In the Wall Street Journal, retired Air Force general David Deptula warns:

In the Air Force alone, more than 30 squadrons are now grounded, along with aircrews, and maintenance and training personnel. The U.S. military’s foremost air-combat training exercise—Red Flag—has been canceled for the rest of the year. The graduate schools for Air Force, Navy and Marine combat aviators have been canceled. Equipment testing and upgrades to F-22s, F-15s, F-16s and other aircraft have been delayed.


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My Comment: Some in the military are voicing their concerns .... but they are facing a losing battle. For example .... the number one concern and focus for the Pentagon (this week) has been this story.

Is U.S. Military Preparedness Being 'Killed' By U.S. Budget Cuts?

USS Ronald Reagan and USS Preble during straits training exercise.

PACIFIC OCEAN (Nov. 1, 2010) The aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) is underway with the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Preble (DDG 88) during a straits training exercise off the coast of California. Ronald Reagan is underway completing a composite training unit exercise in preparation for an upcoming deployment. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Dylan McCord/Released)

Budget Cuts Are Killing Military Preparedness -- Loren Thompson, Forbes

The political war in Washington over funding of the federal government has begun to undermine the nation’s military preparedness. Senior military leaders are warning Congress that if the government’s broken budgeting process cannot be made more predictable, it will have a “cascading” effect on the joint force in future years that leaves the force unprepared to respond to new threats.

That message was delivered forcefully to Congress in late April by Secretary of the Army John McHugh and Army Chief of Staff Raymond Odierno, who appeared before the armed services committees in both chambers to discuss their service’s fiscal 2014 budget request. The Army is seeking a base budget of $130 billion — about $5 billion less than this year — but like the rest of the military budget that the Obama Administration has requested for the fiscal year beginning October 1, it does not take into account all the cuts mandated by a 2011 deficit-reduction law.

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My Comment: Sequestration is mandating even more budget cuts for next year .... so expect U.S. military preparedness to decrease even further.

A Historical Look On The Consequences Of Cutting Past U.S. Defense Budgets

Paratroopers prepare to hook up an M119A2 105mm howitzer to a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter during air assault training on Fort Bragg, N.C., Feb. 8, 2013. The paratroopers are assigned to the 82nd Airborne Division’s 3rd Battalion, 319th Airborne Field Artillery Regiment, 1st Brigade Combat Team. U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Michael J. MacLeod

Cutting the Defense Budget: A History -- Alexander Lovelace, Washington Times

U.S. pattern of unpreparedness.

The past year has seen both cries for cutting the defense budget at home and renewed violence abroad. With the economy continuing to decline, and the deficit continuing to rise, it is almost inevitable that the defense budget will continue to shrink. This, unfortunately, is nothing new. Throughout its history the United States has habitually, and foolishly, cut troop strength at the conclusion of its wars, and thus been unprepared when new conflicts emerged. With the debates over the defense budget and sequestration threatening to reduce U.S. troop strength even further, Congress would be well advised to look to history and remember that similar cuts have cost the United States dearly in most of her wars.

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My Comment: A historical perspective of past U.S. military budget cuts .... not a reassuring picture.

Ex-Generals Make The Case For Deep U.S. Defense Cuts

Generals: Get Real And Cut Pentagon Spending -- Robert G. Gard and John Johns, Special To CNN

(CNN) -- A strong U.S. military is indispensable to our national security. As retired military officers, we have dedicated our careers, on active duty and retired, to that end. We have been involved in crafting and teaching national security strategy, of which military strategy and use of military force are vital components.

In the debate over the Pentagon budget and with threats of deeper cuts coming, the president, Congress, governors and the entire defense community are rightly concerned about sequestration, which cuts both domestic and defense spending indiscriminately. It is agreed that overall spending reductions are necessary, but the "fiscal cliff" crisis reflects a lack of political will, not rational planning.

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My Comment: I can understand the argument that the defense budget must be cut to help bring America's fiscal mess into some form of order. But realistically .... when you look at deficit numbers like this one .... even if the defense budget is cut to ZERO!!! .... America/s fiscal mess will still be there.

Sequestration’s Defense Cuts Becoming More Real With Each Passing Day

Sequestration’s Defense Cuts Loom -- Max Boot, Commentary

The newspapers are full of articles about negotiations over tax hikes and spending cuts as Congress and the White House face the impending “fiscal cliff.” There is much less said about another consequence of our mindless budgeting: the very real possibility that our armed forces will face devastating cuts on January 2. That is less than a month away but, given how little attention sequestration is receiving, it feels as if we’re sleepwalking toward disaster.

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My Comment: In all of my years of following US politics and news .... I have never seen anything like this. The whole world is watching the Commander in Chief of a superpower play politics with his defense budget .... an astoundingly wrong impression to give to a world filled with many bad actors on the scene. But such is the state of politics in the U.S. today .... and as I always tell my friends around the world who want to know what is my take on what is happening .... elections have consequences, and the American public have decided that their entitlement programs and uncontrollable spending is far more important than defense budgets and having rich entrepreneurs .... and we better get use to it.

On a side note .... and this is what makes me realize how destructive Washington has been .... even if sequestration does kick in .... the U.S. deficit will still continue to climb by about $1 trillion a year. And if interest rates climb .... as they will .... this debt load will accelerate even quicker.

Update: "Fiscal cliff" talks frozen, Obama lobbies big business -- CBS

The Case For Shrinking The US Defense Budget

Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta congratulates Robert M. Gates, who served as the 22nd defense secretary, at the unveiling of Gates' portrait at the Pentagon, Oct. 29, 2012. DOD photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Chad J. McNeeley

Honey, I Shrunk the Pentagon -- Bill Keller, New York Times

LET’S imagine you are the new secretary of defense, and, wow, has Secretary Panetta left you a full docket. You have to extract more than 60,000 troops from Afghanistan without leaving behind a Mad Max dystopia. You have to carry on shadow wars against homicidal extremists, refine contingency plans for Syria and Iran, keep an eye on China’s pushiness and Pakistan’s fragility, all without being too distracted by the frat-house antics of hormonal generals.

It’s easy to overlook in all that excitement, but your best opportunity to make a major contribution to the security of your country is none of the above. It is the unglamorous, unpopular, unfinished business of right-sizing our defense budget, without putting us at grave risk. What’s that you say? You’d rather go back to reading General Petraeus’s flirty e-mails? I sympathize. Imagine trying to get people to read a column about the budget.

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My Comment: I concur .... the most important task for the next U.S. Secretary of Defense will be to cut the US military without impacting it's capabilities. My prediction .... in today's political environment I do not expect him to succeed.

What's Next For The U.S. Military

President Barack Obama delivers remarks to troops at Fort Campbell, Ky., May 6, 2011. Vice President Joe Biden stands at left. Army.mil

What Obama's Re-Election Means For The Military, Veterans -- Leo Shane III, Stars and Stripes

WASHINGTON – Even though Barack Obama has served as commander in chief for the last four years, his re-election Tuesday will mean significant changes for the military in coming months, especially in terms of defense spending.

Where his challenger in the presidential campaign promised big increases in military budgets in coming years, Obama has planned almost $500 billion in spending reductions for the military over the next decade, calling it a responsible post-war plan. Republicans in Congress fiercely oppose the effort, but the president’s re-election blunts their hopes of increasing or even holding steady defense spending.

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My Comment: My prediction .... the slated $500 billion in cuts over 10 years will go through, as well as the sequestration cuts of another $500 billion. And as Leo Shane accurately quotes ....

.... Obama has said he won’t let the military be decimated by sequestration, but also won’t sacrifice other domestic programs to save the services.


Translated .... domestic programs are the priority, and to save them he will cut even more of the military .... which I predict he will. In the end .... after 10 years .... the U.S. will have a military that will probably be far smaller than what it is today, operating on a budget that will be $100 billion+ less per year than what it is today (and that is assuming that inflation will be near zero .... which I strongly doubt will be the case when one considers the amount of money that the FED is printing today)..

How Much Military Can You Buy For $720 Billion A Year?

GOP nominee Mitt Romney at the Virginia Military Institute October 8, 2012. (Shannon Stapleton/Courtesy Reuters)

The 4 Percent Solution: How Much Military Can You Buy For $720 Billion A Year? -- James Carafano, Foreign Policy

Even though the first U.S. presidential debate was not about national security, the military made a brief but striking appearance, with candidate Mitt Romney lamenting what he charged were President Barack Obama's "dramatic cuts to our military." He said: "I do not believe in cutting our military. I believe in maintaining the strength of America's military." Obama, for his part, countered that Romney wanted "$2 trillion in additional military spending that the military hasn't asked for."

The stark contrast raises the question: Is the United States investing adequately for its future defense?

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My Comment: As the politicians debate and argue on what to spend (or not spend) when it comes to the U.S. Military, the Pentagon is living in the real world of what they are about to face.

U.S. Defense Cuts?

What Defense Cuts? -- Mark Thompson, Time

The fear-mongering about impending defense cuts is becoming deafening. Yet even if sequestration happens in January, the Congressional Budget Office says the Pentagon will still be spending as much as it did in 2006. While the cuts may be crude – that is how Congress wrote the law imposing it – they are not draconian.

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My Comment: Forget about 2006 .... I would love to see government spending going back to 1996 levels. Unfortunately .... we do not live in that world anymore. Defense spending .... and government spending in general .... rarely declines .... especially now when so many are dependent on entitlements.

But I think those days are over. Trillion dollar deficits are not sustainable .... the day will come when those cuts will need to be made .... and I doubt that the defense budget will be ignored.

How To Head Off Deep US Defense Budget Cuts

Sailors and Marines on the flight deck of the amphibious assault ship USS Wasp enjoy a fireworks display during Fleet Week 2012 in Boston, June 28, 2012. The eight-day event, which coincides with the commemoration of the War of 1812, hosts service members from the Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard, and coalition ships from around the world. U.S. Navy photo

Heading Off Sequestration -- U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker, Defense News

What Congress Can Do To Avoid Devastating Cuts.

As the U.S. celebrates the bicentennial of the War of 1812, the lessons of that long-ago conflict should not be forgotten by today’s policymakers. In those bleak years, the U.S. saw that even the border of an expansive ocean would not fully protect our nation.

U.S. resilience reaffirmed our sovereignty during that war. The influence of seapower on national security and commerce was clear then, and it remains the same today. Unfortunately, decisions in the coming months could jeopardize the tools required to maintain America’s leadership in the world.

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My Comment: The Senator outlines very effectively the impact that US defense budget cuts will have .... but I am skeptical that his message is resonating with a majority of Americans. For most Americans the priority is to solve our internal problems and challenges rather than trying to solve the problems and challenges that other countries are facing .... and the first thing that the people are looking at .... politicians included .... is cutting our defense budget.

Is this a smart approach .... probably not .... but with trillions in debt and an economy that is stagnant .... voters are looking for politicians with solutions, and U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker's solutions are not hitting most voters.

Update: Tom Switzer at the Sydney morning herald sums it about right .... Bald fact is US power is waning.

Why Sequestration Will Be A Disaster For The U.S. Defense Department

The Disaster That Is Sequestration -- Dov S. Zakheim, Foreign Policy

More than any other economic danger looming on America's immediate horizon, including a possible break-up of the eurozone, sequestration poses the greatest single threat to American recovery in the near term. This arcane process came into force when the congressionally-mandated "super-committee, "officially known as the Joint Committee on Deficit Reduction, failed in its mission. As a result, the sequester calls for reductions in government spending totaling $1.2 trillion over the next nine years, of which $984 billion, or $109 billion annually, will be realized from across-the-board budget reductions.

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My Comment: Sober reading .... read it all.

Why Is The Pentagon Not Planning For A Potential Half Trillion Budget Cut?

Is Not Planning For More Defense Cuts The Right Plan? -- Mike Mount, CNN

It is said that the "P" in Pentagon stands for planning. Military personnel and civilians alike plan for everything inside that building - wars, peace, exercises, humanitarian operations, even how to get the almost 25,000 employees out of the building for a fire drill.

So why is it, from the secretary of defense on down, there is nobody planning for a massive half-a-trillion dollars in potential cuts coming in about six months?

Well, according to the secretary other senior DoD leaders, publicly they are not planning because they have not been given direction to do so.

First of all, let's start with what this is all about.

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My Comment: I guess the Pentagon is praying that Congress and the White House will get their act together before these cuts are implemented. What's my prediction .... a part of me says that because they must come to an agreement .... an agreement will be reached. Another part tells me that we are entering a new era in American politics, and national defense may be a casualty of this trend.

How Washington Politics Could 'Devastate' U.S. Military

U.S. soldiers take a break along a dirt road during a foot patrol near Khoni Ghar in Afghanistan's Khost province, May 27, 2012. U.S. Army photo by Spc. Kimberly Trumbull

Partisan Gridlock Could “Devastate” Troops -- Max Boot, Commentary

Deputy Secretary of Defense Ash Carter is absolutely right when he says of the looming defense “sequester”–$500 billion in defense cuts to be implemented during the next ten years, with $55 billion to be cut on Jan. 1, 2013—that it would “ have devastating effects on our readiness and our workforce, and disrupt thousands of contracts and programs.”

And those devastating cuts would not stop at the water’s edge. Even troops in combat would be hurt. The Pentagon has just admitted that Overseas Contingency Operations funds which are used to fund operations in Afghanistan would be cut, too. That would probably mean a cut of approximately 15 percent, or $13 billion, in supplemental funding of $88.5 billion for the next fiscal year. It is hard to imagine how U.S. troops or their Afghan allies could continue to operate at planned levels with 15 percent less in funding.

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My Comment: I can already see the argument being framed this way .... tax increases or cuts to U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and general programs .... and the decision needs to be done now .... and in the middle of this fight .... the U.S. soldier.

A Commentary On How The Budget-Cutting 'Doomsday Machine' Endangers Us

Eviscerating American Defense -- By Frank J. Gaffney Jr., The Washington Times

Budget-cutting ‘doomsday machine’ endangers us.

As with his commitment to the newly minted Air Force officers, in the immortal words of Ira Gershwin, this narrative “ain’t necessarily so.”

Let’s start with the promise of military superiority. Only someone completely oblivious - or indifferent - to what it takes to achieve and maintain superiority could make such a statement under present and foreseeable circumstances. The fact of the matter is that the nearly $800 billion already excised from the Pentagon budgets over the next 10 years has caused the evisceration of virtually every military modernization program previously on the books. Research and development accounts crucial to the next generation of weapons are being similarly savaged.

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My Comment: I expect more opinion pieces like this one in the next few years .... but I also know that they will not impact the decisions that our policy makers will be forced to choose in the next year or two. The U.S. is broke and burdened with massive deficits. And while I would like to believe that President Obama will go about cutting other programs as well as defense .... I also know that he will not. I can say the same about the Republicans and Presidential candidate Mitt Romney .... the political will is just not there.

Bottom line .... the Treasury is empty and the IOUs are piling up .... and with the exception of Social Security, Medicare, and paying interest on the U.S. debt ... all other programs are going to be slashed to the bone .... defense included.