Conflicts To Watch In 2021

Council On Foreign Relations: Conflicts to Watch in 2021 

Preventive Priorities Survey Results In CFR’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey, U.S. foreign policy experts assess the likelihood and impact of thirty potential conflicts that could emerge or escalate in the coming year. 

A crisis stemming from North Korea’s continued development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile testing is the top-ranked conflict concern for 2021, according to the Council on Foreign Relations’ (CFR) thirteenth annual Preventive Priorities Survey.

The survey identifies potential violent overseas conflicts where U.S. troops might be deployed in the year ahead. Conducted by CFR’s Center for Preventive Action (CPA) last November, the survey asks foreign policy experts to rank thirty ongoing or potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating in the next year and their potential impact on U.S. national interests.

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: Afghanistan is on the top of my worry list.

Head Of US Naval Forces In Europe And Africa Believes Public-Health Issues Should Be The Seventh Domain Of Warfare

US Navy Adm. James Foggo, second from right, at Naval Station Rota in Spain, January 12, 2018. US Navy/Mass Comm. Specialist 3rd Class M. Jang

Christopher Woody, Business Insider: After coronavirus, the US needs to worry about a '7th domain' of warfare, top Navy commander in Europe says

* The coronavirus has upended US military operations and left the US government struggling to respond to a worldwide public-health crisis.
* For the military, the pandemic warrants a change in planning and operations beyond the immediate impact, according to Adm. James Foggo, head of US naval forces in Europe and Africa.

The coronavirus pandemic has scrambled US military operations, halted troop movements and is cutting short major exercises. US troops have also been supporting civilian authorities and in some cases working alongside local health workers.

What has become clear is that the military will in the future have to take into account public-health issues when assessing threats, according to Adm. James Foggo, the commander of US naval forces in Europe and Africa.

Foggo oversaw NATO exercise Trident Juncture, which took place in and around Norway in late 2018. The exercise, the first of its kind in decades, included some 50,000 personnel, tens of thousands of vehicles, and dozens of ships, including the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, the first US carrier to sail above the Arctic Circle since the 1990s.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: According to Adm. James Foggo, the commander of US naval forces in Europe and Africa. The domains of warfare are .... land, air, sea, space, cyber, and logistics. He believes public-health issues should be the seventh one. Should it be?

Wars Have Become More 'Complicated' Since The Fall Of The Berlin Wall

Kira Schacht, DW: How war has changed since 1989

After the Cold War ended, the world hoped for an era of peace. But things turned out differently. Now, 30 years after the historic fall of the Berlin Wall that shifted power balances, wars are more complex than ever.

The twentieth century was dominated by wars. An estimated 80 million people died in two world wars. Then there was the Cold War: an arms race between the USA and Russia. In Europe and large parts of the world, two hostile sides faced each other. In Asia, the Middle East, Africa and South America, the global powers financed bloody proxy wars.

Peaceful revolutions finally brought down the Iron Curtain in 1989. The Cold War was declared over. "We hoped that after the end of the cold war, there would be an era of peace," says Sarah Brockmeier, UN peacekeeping expert at the Global Public Policy Institute, a Berlin-based think tank.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The part of this study that raised my eyebrows is that military spending is now at an all time low.

Why Are So Many Of The World's Wars Being Ignored?

Syrian Democratic Forces and U.S. troops are seen during a patrol near the Turkish border in Hasakah, Syria, November 4, 2018. (Rodi Said/REUTERS)

Simon Tisdall, The Guardian: In a world full of wars, why are so many of them ignored?

Instability across central Africa has resulted in a humanitarian crisis. There needs to be greater focus on conflict resolution

Cameroon, a central African state of 24 million people on the Gulf of Guinea, is rarely in the news – which is surprising, given the awful things happening there. In a warring world full of conflict, the country’s troubles barely rate a mention. That’s short-sighted. As Yemen shows, today’s local difficulties have a habit of becoming tomorrow’s international crises.

Long-running tensions between Cameroon’s French and English-speaking communities came to a head last week with the arrest of at least 350 members of the main opposition party, whose leader has been jailed since January. Human Rights Watch accused security forces of using “excessive and indiscriminate force”.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: My answer to the above question on why are so many of the world's wars being ignored is simple. It is one of the reasons why I started this blog.

Small Wars Will Still Be The Most Likely Future Fight

U.S. soldiers deployed in support of Operation Inherent Resolve prepare for helicopter exfiltration during an aerial response force exercise in Iraq, Dec. 31, 2018.

Kyle Rempfer, Military Times: Keep those Iraq War notes handy: Small wars, not great power battles, still the most likely future fight

Great power competition has been the primary driver of the Pentagon over the past few years, but the Defense Department doesn’t get to pick the next war.

It is more likely that the U.S. military will be drawn into another conflict against an insurgent or proxy force, than it will end up fighting naval battles in the South China Sea or halting Russian armor in the Fulda Gap.

“While you’re going to have the larger force-on-force kind of engagements, at the same time, there’s going to be action in ‘gray zone’ ... the space in between war and peace,” said retired Col. Frank Sobchak, co-author of the long-delayed Iraq War Study and a former Army Special Forces officer.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: A sobering analysis on who the U.S. will be fighting against in the future.

Report: World Has Become More Peaceful

Assault on the positions of soldiers of the Daesh terrorist organisation (outlawed in Russia) near a former Palestinian refugee camp Yarmuk in a southern suburb of Damascus. © Sputnik / Mikhail Voskresenskiy

Daily Mail: The world has become more peaceful and despite wars in Syria and Middle East fewer people are dying in armed conflicts, scientists say

* Experts looked at 'all possible' wars, the countries involved and battle death tolls
* One leading researcher said Korean War had appeared to be a 'breaking point'
* Change since then is 'an indication the world has become a more peaceful place'
* The research was carried out by Norway's Peace Research Institute Oslo

The world has become a more peaceful place with fewer people dying in armed conflicts, scientists have claimed.

Experts from Norway's Peace Research Institute Oslo examined statistics from 'all possible' wars, the countries involved, and how many people were killed.

Research director Håvard Mokleiv Nygård suggested the Korean War in the early 1950s may have been a 'breaking point' signalling a change in the number of people killed in battle.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The University of Oslo Report is here .... The world HAS become more peaceful (Apollon Research Magazine).

Wars In All But Name

A woman is comforted near the body of a murder victim in Juárez, Mexico, in April. Reuters

Stephen B. Young, Small Wars Journal: Wars in All but Name

He defined war as “a continuation of politics by other means” linking war with political objectives. But what if kinetic violence to break the will of an enemy is systematically organized but has no conventional political objective? Would it still be war? Its objectives might well be to control people and territory; to provide unquestioned order for a community; to regulate behaviors.

Consider the case of Mexico. From 2007 to 2014, 164,000 Mexicans died violently, more than the 103,000 civilians killed in Iraq and Afghanistan during those years. In 2016 Mexico surpassed Iraq and Afghanistan to become, after Syria, the world’s second deadliest war zone, according to the Annual Armed Conflict Survey of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Good point ..... From 2007 to 2014, 164,000 Mexicans died violently, more than the 103,000 civilians killed in Iraq and Afghanistan during those years. This commentary is my must read for today.

Which Countries Are Most Likely To Fight Wars?

(Click on Image to Enlarge)

The Economist: Which countries are most likely to fight wars?

Democracy and peace are linked, but the relationship is complex

WHEN THE first world war ended on November 11th 1918, David Lloyd George, Britain’s prime minister, told Parliament: “I hope we may say that thus, this fateful morning, came to an end all wars.” History proved him wrong. But 100 years on, the world is far more peaceful. Fewer than one in 100,000 people have died in combat per year since 2000—one-sixth the rate between 1950 and 2000, and one-fiftieth of that between 1900 and 1950. Why?

Read more ....

WNU Editor: If anyone can learn anything from history .... it is that war has been a part of the human condition since the beginning. It is nature.

Are Russia And China Under The Impression That War With The U.S. Is Coming?

Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. ABS-CBN

Michael Snyder, End Of The American Dream: Russia And China Are Apparently Both Under The Impression That War With The US Is Coming...

Could it be possible that the U.S. is heading for a major war? If you ask most Americans that question, they will look at you like you are crazy. For most people in this country, war with either Russia or China is not something to even be remotely concerned about. But the Russians and the Chinese both see things very differently. As you will see below, Russia and China both seem to be under the impression that war with the United States is coming, and they are both rapidly preparing for such a conflict.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: There is a lot of Russian TV and Kremlin rhetoric on war, but if Russia was preparing for war they would not be cutting their defense budget .... Russian Defense Spending Falls By Twenty Percent (May 2, 2018). And when it comes to my family and many friends in Russia .... no one is talking about war. What concerns me is China. They are increasing their defense budget, and they are threatening to use their military to enforce their territorial claims. But what concerns me is that most people that I know in China are very comfortable with the idea of China using its military to advance Chinese interests. To say that this is uncharted territory with the Chinese is an understatement.

Is The U.S. Ready For A War With Russia Or China?

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of a bilateral meeting at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China, 14 May 2017. REUTERS/Wu Hong/Pool

Michael Spirtas, The Hill: Are we truly prepared for a war with Russia or China?

It would be terrible if the United States got into a major war, but it would be much worse if it lost one.

Despite growing threats from Russia and China, American experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq have created weariness in the American public and have focused the country on counterterrorism and counterinsurgency instead of major power warfare.

To deter, and if necessary defeat, Russian and Chinese aggression, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) would likely need a strategy to overcome these obstacles.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: No one is ready for war. No one.

Update: The US may not be able to fight two big wars at once (Aaron Mehta, Defense News).

Why Is It Difficult To Defeat People Who Live in Mountainous Regions

U.S. Army 1st Lt. David T. Broyles watches as his men leave Observation Post Rocky with Afghan National Army Soldiers in Kunar province, Afghanistan, July 19, 2010. U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Gary A. Witte

T. X. Hammes, National Interest: Why Are People Who Live in Mountainous Regions Almost Impossible to Conquer?

There is no clear-cut, academic definition of mountain people. Given their historical ability to drive away invaders, maybe they deserve closer study.

On August 21, 2018, General John Nicholson passed command of NATO’s Afghanistan mission to Lieutenant General Scott Miller. In his final press conference, Nicholson stated the strategy is working and just needs more time. He was the seventeenth commander of Afghanistan and his parting statement sounds very much like the previous sixteen. Given some of the most successful military leaders of this generation have command there, why does Afghanistan still remain unstable?

Clearly, Afghanistan has a very along history of ejecting foreign forces. On January 13, 1842, Assistant Surgeon William Brydon, bloodstained and exhausted , reached the British Fort at Jalalabad. When asked where the rest of the army was, he managed to reply “I am the Army.” Thus the British learned their 20,000-man army in Afghanistan had been wiped out. Though it is perhaps the most famous example of a Western army being defeated by a mountain people, it is certainly not the only one.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: When the Soviet Union was first established, numerous regions did not approve of this new union and began insurgencies .... particularly in the Caucasus. These wars went on for years, but Stalin was the one who solved it. He simply moved/depopulated the regions that were in conflict, created free-fire zones, and killed anyone who was in it. Within a year .... these insurgencies had collapsed. Bottom line .... these type of wars can be won, but today's morality (at least in the West) will not permit the implementation of these measures to accomplish it.

These 5 Countries Are Impossible To Conquer

Blake Stilwell, We Are The Mighty: These are the 5 countries that are most impossible to conquer

Historically, all empires either fall or morph into some other empire... and then fall. We don't use the term "empire" to describe nation-states that much anymore.

Regardless of what we call some countries, they are still able to project power outside their borders, being it globally (like the United States) or regionally (like Iran).

But when it comes to having to defend their home turf, some countries are just not going to roll over for any reason.

These are those countries:

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Afghanistan is on the list, but not Pakistan or Iran.

Avoiding World War III in Asia

Reuters

Parag Khanna, National Interest: Avoiding World War III in Asia

Democratic peace theory is both inspirational and aspirational—but at this moment in history it is of limited applicability.

World War II still hasn’t ended, yet World War III already looms. When China and Japan agreed to normalize relations in 1945, it was stipulated that the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands (a string of uninhabited rocks equidistant from Japan, China and Taiwan) would not be militarized and the dispute would be put off for future generations. That future is here. The recent discovery of large oil and gas reserves under the islands has heated up the situation dramatically, with military budgets surging, and warships, coast guards and fighter jets scrambling to assert control over the commons.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: One thing that I know about covering wars for this blog is that no one wants one .... but wars have a habit of showing up anyway.

Predicting The Future Of Warfare

Recruits go on patrol during basic training at Fort Jackson, S.C. TRADOC is responsible for developing the doctrine used to train new Soldiers. (Photo Credit: Air Force Staff Sgt. Shawn Weismiller)

Robert H. Scales, War On The Rocks: Forecasting the Future of Warfare

The Army’s decision to create a “Futures Command” is long overdue, well-intended, and absolutely necessary if the Army is to emerge from the malaise that has held modernization in its vice for all of this new century. But accelerating the pace of modernization without a rigorous understanding of how militaries anticipate the future of war might run the risk of creating an accelerating engine with greater thrust, but no vectors.

I’ve spent almost three decades studying the art and science of future gazing. The high point of my immersion as a futurist began in 1991 when then Army Chief of Staff Gen. Gordon Sullivan, entrusted me with writing the Army’s official history of the Gulf War, Certain Victory. Three years later, in 1995 another chief of staff, Gen. Dennis Reimer, gave me the mission of looking into the deep future of warfare, beyond 2020 to 2025. As head of the Army After Next project, I had access to an enormously talented group of young officers, many of whom are still doing great work today. With the assistance of my deputy, Col. Bob Killebrew, we invented the Army’s first strategic game, which continues today in heavily modified form as Unified Quest.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: A long read, but for those who are interested in how future wars will be fought .... a must read.

Why Are There So Many Wars In The World Today?

American soldiers on patrol last month in Kandahar, Afghanistan, found and blew up a Taliban bunker. An influx of troops has begun to change the area. Michael Kamber for The New York Times

Jason Burke, The Guardian: Why is the world at war?

Syria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Yemen, Afghanistan, Ukraine – the globe is scarred by violence

We live in a world of trouble. Conflicts today may be much less lethal than those that scarred the last century, but this brings little comfort. We remain deeply anxious. We can blame terrorism and the fear it inspires despite the statistically unimportant number of casualties it inflicts, or the contemporary media and the breathless cycle of “breaking news”, but the truth remains that the wars that seem to inspire the fanatics or have produced so many headlines in recent years prompt deep anxiety. One reason is that these wars appear to have no end in sight.

To explain these conflicts we reach for easy binary schema – Islam v the west; haves against have-nots; nations that “play by the rules” of the international system against “rogues”. We also look to grand geopolitical theories – the end of the Westphalian system, the west faced by “the rise of the rest” – or even just attribute the violence to “geography”. None of these explanations seems to adequately allay our concerns.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I am a student of wars and conflicts .... it is why I have this blog. There is no easy answer to "why is the world at war" .... except one .... we have always been at war, it is our nature. Case in point .... The Oldest Known Evidence Of Human Warfare Has Been Confirmed (January 21, 2016).

Are We On The Cusp Of An 'Artificial Intelligence' War Between The U.S. And China?

Matthew Bey, RCD/Stratfor: The Coming Tech War With China

Highlights

* China's growing technological prowess will be a source of increasing worry for the United States.
* Artificial intelligence will be a critical area of competition between the two countries because it has applications in military as well as civilian life — and will likely revolutionize both.
* Because of China's sheer size, its tech sector could give Silicon Valley a run for its money in terms of market share if it even comes close to producing the same technologies.

The United States is already in the middle of its next great war — even if it's only just starting to realize it. In the latest National Security Strategy, the White House highlighted China's growing technological prowess as a threat to U.S. economic and military might. The Asian powerhouse has taken on a leading role in several critical emerging technologies. Five years ago, by contrast, it was widely perceived as an imitator in technology, not an innovator.

As hard as it may be for Washington to admit, China is catching up in the tech race. The question now is whether tech firms in the United States, a country that embraces private enterprise and a free economy, will be able to keep up with their Chinese counterparts' breakthroughs.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: China appears to be making great strides in this area .... China’s Fourth Industrial Revolution: Artificial Intelligence (Levi Maxey, Cipher Brief)

What Should U.S. Civilians Do In The Event Of A Major War?

Civilians run in panic after coalition aerial bombardment hit ISIL positions in Mosul, Iraq [Reuters]

Elisabeth Braw, Defense One: When the War Comes, What Should We Civilians Do?

The military can’t do it all. The US needs a national civilian emergency corps, trained and ready to help in case of the next disaster, be it cyber, nuclear, or natural.

Imagine this. Yesterday, Russian warships cut several of the undersea cables that power the internet. Millions of Europeans suddenly found themselves unable to use email and text messaging services. They were unable to bank or pay their bills online. Retailers’ websites ceased to function. Families stampeded on grocery stores. By the evening, internet-enabled hospitals had to revert to old-fashioned treatment. At bank branches, fist fights broke out as people queued up to withdraw cash. Unverified news of an impending military invasion caused residents to leave major cities, clogging up up rail lines, highways, and gas stations.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: If there is a major war .... civilians will do what they have always done in conflicts. Stay away from the fighting, and try to survive.

A Look At What The Costs Of A Korean War Could Be

The DMZ from the North Korean side Credit:Flickr

John Feffer, The Wire: What the Costs of a War in North Korea Could Be

A nuclear exchange between the US and North Korea would go off the charts in terms of lives lost, economies wrecked, environment destroyed.

Donald Trump is contemplating wars that would dwarf anything that his immediate predecessors ever considered.

He has dropped the mother of all bombs in Afghanistan, and he’s considering the mother of all wars in the Middle East. He is abetting Saudi Arabia’s devastating war in Yemen. Many evangelicals are welcoming his announcement of US recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel as a sign that the end of days is nigh. The conflict with Iran is about to heat up early next year when Trump, in the absence of any congressional action, will decide whether to fulfill his promise to tear up the nuclear agreement that the Obama administration worked so hard to negotiate and the peace movement backed with crucial support.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The above author summarizes the studies and reports from others to deliver his estimate on what a war on the Korean peninsula could cost. Where I diverge with his commentary is that I do not believe like he does that the U.S. will initiate a war of choice against North Korea.  President Trump's strategy has become clearer since his return from Asia two months ago .... and that is to use economic and political sanctions against North Korea to a level that they have never experienced before. We saw this strategy at play with the UN vote for greater sanctions this past Friday .... United Nations Security Council Unanimously Backs New Sanctions On North Korea (December 22, 2017). And while critics of these new sanctions say that it is too little and too late (there is a two year time frame before they are finally imposed), I say the opposite .... they will impact North Korea far sooner than what the critics are saying. But what worries me is that these sanctions may become the reason why North Korea initiates a conflict. We should not forget that the U.S. imposed sanctions against Japan before Pearl Harbor, sanctions that Japan justified on why they attacked the U.S.. Who is to say that the North Korean leadership would not do the same thing.

How The Trump Administration Turned The Pentagon Loose On The Islamic State

Lt. Col. Seth Folsom credits the cooperation between Iraqi Security Forces and the U.S-led coalition for the military defeat of ISIS in Iraq. (Courtesy U.S Army)

FOX News: Trump, Mattis turn military loose on ISIS, leaving terror caliphate in tatters

BAGHDAD – Hundreds of ISIS fighters had just been chased out of a northern Syrian city and were fleeing through the desert in long convoys, presenting an easy target to U.S. A-10 "warthogs."

But the orders to bomb the black-clad jihadists never came, and the terrorists melted into their caliphate -- living to fight another day. The events came in August 2016, even as then-Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was vowing on the campaign trail to let generals in his administration crush the organization that, under President Obama, had grown from the “jayvee team” to the world’s most feared terrorist organization.

Read more ....

WNU Editor:  They are now using the strategy on battling the Taliban and Islamic State in Afghanistan. Will it also succeed .... we will probably know by next year.

A New American Way Of War

(Click On Image to Enlarge)

W.J. Hennigan, Time: The New American Way of War

The convoy of weather-beaten trucks and Toyota Land Cruisers kicked up dirt as it streaked across the wooded West African terrain toward the hazy horizon. A joint team of 12 U.S. Army Special Forces and 30 Nigerien troops were making the trek back to base after a two-day reconnaissance mission to a remote area along Niger’s border with Mali.

The weary commandos had just spoken to elders near the village of Tongo Tongo after sifting through a deserted campsite, seeking intelligence on an elusive terrorist operative. But it was a dry hole; whoever was there had since moved along. As the mid-morning sun bore down, the commandos settled in for the 110-mile drive.

Then gunfire erupted. About 50 militants on motorcycles and in trucks swarmed the convoy, pinning it down. Unable to advance or retreat–to “get off the X” in military parlance–the Special Forces took incoming fire from rocket-propelled grenades and mortars. Over two hours of fighting led to the deaths of four U.S. soldiers.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: This is not a "new American way of conducting warfare". The U.S. has been using Special Forces in conflict zones for decades .... the only difference now is that there are more conflicts, and more Special Forces.