Georgia Inquiry Criticizes Military, But Not War

From Yahoo News/AP:

TBILISI (Reuters) – A Georgian parliamentary inquiry has said the military conduct of its August conflict with Russia was flawed but backed President Mikheil Saakashvili's attack on the breakaway South Ossetia region.

The report echoed domestic criticism of the military performance in the five-day war in which the Russian army drove Georgian security forces from pro-Moscow South Ossetia and advanced to within 45 km (30 miles) of the capital Tbilisi.

But the findings, published on Thursday, supported Saakashvili's decision to launch an air and ground assault on the rebel capital Tskhinvali on Aug 7 after months of skirmishes and Georgian accusations of Russian provocation.

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My Comment: The Georgian military had no chance. They were outgunned, out manned, and completely overwhelmed when the Russian Army started to move. They were simply not ready to fight the Russian Army, while the Russian Army is always ready to fight anyone else.

Under-Fire Saakashvili Defends Georgia War

Bodyguards escort the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, to shelter from the threat of a Russian air attack in Gori in August 2008. Sergei Grits/AP (Photo from The Guardian)

From Reuters:

TBILISI (Reuters) - President Mikheil Saakashvili on Friday mounted a fresh defense of Georgia's assault on South Ossetia in August, denying accusations Tbilisi had been the aggressor in the disastrous war with Russia that ensued.

Under fire from opponents who say he walked into a war Georgia could not possibly win, Saakashvili defended his actions of the night of August 7 during televised testimony before a bipartisan parliamentary commission probing the war.

Saakashvili remains popular among voters, but Georgia's fractious opposition is using the five-day conflict and its consequences to mount a fresh challenge to the pro-Western president, who came to power with the 2003 "Rose Revolution."

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My Comment: If it was not for the political intervention of the Europeans and Americans, Saakashvili would either be dead or enjoying the diplomatic protection of another country. His confrontation with the South Ossetians was ill conceived, executed terribly, and producing a result that has split the country.

Nope .... you cannot defend the indefensible.

Georgia Denies Claim That US Gave War Green Light

From The International Herald Tribune:

TBILISI, Georgia: Georgia's president denies claims that his government believed the United States gave approval for using force in the separatist South Ossetia province.

Georgia's former ambassador to Russia had said that people in President Mikhail Saakashvili's circle told him U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice "gave the green light" for Georgia to retake South Ossetia — an action he said triggered the August war with Russia.

Saakashvili dismissed that assertion as a "utter nonsense." Washington has also denied it.

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My Comment: I doubt that President Bush gave the green light. His concerns at the time were to go to the Summer Olympics in China.

Georgia Offers Fresh Evidence on War’s Start

The Roki Tunnel, which links Russia and South Ossetia in Georgia. When Russian forces moved through the tunnel into Georgia at the war’s start is in dispute.

From The New York Times:

TBILISI, Georgia — A new front has opened between Georgia and Russia, now over which side was the aggressor whose military activities early last month ignited the lopsided five-day war. At issue is new intelligence, inconclusive on its own, that nonetheless paints a more complicated picture of the critical last hours before war broke out.

Georgia has released intercepted telephone calls purporting to show that part of a Russian armored regiment crossed into the separatist enclave of South Ossetia nearly a full day before Georgia’s attack on the capital, Tskhinvali, late on Aug. 7.

Georgia is trying to counter accusations that the long-simmering standoff over South Ossetia, which borders Russia, tilted to war only after it attacked Tskhinvali. Georgia regards the enclave as its sovereign territory.

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My Comment: With calls from European and U.S. political leaders for an examination on the start of the war, Georgia is laying the groundwork for their case. They are obviously concerned on the opinions and comments that are critical on Georgian actions, and are releasing phone intercepts to prove their case.

This is not working. There are already many interpretations on why the Russians were having a spike in their communications, the Georgian explanation is just one of them. To make their case, Georgia will need to provide more. The problem is there is no more to give.

How The Georgian Conflict Really Started (Opinion)

Tskhinvali is seen through a damaged wall. The overlook is part of a Russian peacekeeping base that was attacked by Georgian troops. August 21, 2008

From The Wall Street Journal:

'Anybody who thinks that Moscow didn't plan this invasion, that we in Georgia caused it gratuitously, is severely mistaken," President Mikheil Saakashvili told me during a late night chat in Georgia's presidential palace this weekend.

"Our decision to engage was made in the last second as the Russian tanks were rolling -- we had no choice," Mr. Saakashvili explained. "We took the initiative just to buy some time. We knew we were not going to win against the Russian army, but we had to do something to defend ourselves."

I had just returned from Gori, which was still under the shadow of Russian occupation. I'd learned there on the ground how Russia has deployed a highly deliberate propaganda strategy in this war. Some Georgian friends sneaked me into town unnoticed past the Russian armored checkpoints via a little used tractor path. We noted that, during the day, the tanks on Gori's streets withdrew from the streets to the hills. Apparently, the Russians thought this gave the impression, to any foreign eyewitnesses they chose to let through, of a town not so much occupied as stabilized and made peaceful.

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My Comment: The Georgian conflict with its separatist provinces have been brewing for years. It is easy to blame Russia, but the underlying distrust between the communities in the region was caused by both parties a long time ago.

Are The Russian Soldiers Leaving Georgia?

Russian soldiers give bread to a Georgian woman near the village of Igoeti, 50 kilometers (30 miles) northwest of Tbilisi, Georgia, Friday, Aug. 22, 2008. Russian forces pulled out of positions deep inside Georgia on Friday, two weeks after thousands of troops roared into the small Caucasian nation aboard hundreds of armored vehicles.

Signs Of Pullback By Russian Forces In Georgia -- Yahoo News/AP

IGOETI, Georgia - Russian military convoys rolled out of three key positions in Georgia and headed toward Moscow-backed separatist regions on Friday in a significant withdrawal two weeks after thousands of troops roared into the former Soviet republic.

In western Georgia, a column of 83 tanks, APCs and trucks hauling artillery moved away from the Senaki military base north toward the border of Georgia's breakaway Abkhazia region on Friday afternoon. Georgian police said the vehicles came from the base, which has been under Russian control for more than a week.

In central Georgia, at least 40 Russian military vehicles left the strategic crossroads city of Gori, heading north toward South Ossetia and Russia. Gori straddles the country's main east-west highway south of South Ossetia, the separatist region at the heart of the fighting.

"We are seeing the pullback of Russian troops" from Gori, Georgian security council chief Alexander Lomaia said.

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More News On Georgia/Russia

Russia begins troop withdrawal from Georgia -- Guardian
Large Russian convoy heads for Georgia's S.Ossetia -- Reuters Alert
In pictures: Russia pulls out of Georgia -- BBC News
Russia Withdraws From Georgia, Up to a Point -- New York Times
Russia says withdrawal complete -- BBC News

My Comment: As expected .... Russian soldiers have retreated to points that are arbitrary and/or are strategically important (to them). To make them retreat further will now be left to diplomats and the international community to now put more pressure on Moscow. I expect this process to take a very long time, and in the interim will make a good chunk of the Georgian population angry.

I do not see peace or stability in the region for a very long time.

Russians Dig In Despite Promised Georgia Pullout

Russains soldiers sit a top of an APC near village Khurvaleti, 60 km northwest of Tbilisi, Friday, Aug. 22, 2008 as the Russian convoy moved north, in the direction of South Ossetia. A top Russian general said earlier it could be 10 days before the bulk of the troops is gone, and the mixed signals from Moscow left Georgians guessing about Russia's intentions nearly a week after a cease-fire deal. ( AP Photo /Sergei Grits)

From Yahoo News/AP:

POTI, Georgia - Russian troops manned checkpoints and controlled traffic on major highways across Georgia and Russian military helicopters buzzed overhead Friday, the day that Russia's president had said a pullback would be complete.

A top Russian general amended President Dmitry Medvedev's prediction, saying Thursday it could be 10 days before the bulk of Russian troops leave Georgia. But nearly a week after an EU-brokered cease-fire, the mixed signals from Moscow left Georgians and the world guessing about Russia's true intentions.

"If they're leaving, it is at a snail's pace," said Gen. John Craddock, commander of U.S. European Command, as he ended a two-day assessment trip in Georgia. "It is far too little and far too slow."

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My Comment: The Russian President says that they will start to move out by Friday (today). A Russian general now says 10 days.

Who is making policy?

Report From Tbilisi, Georgia

Georgians gather waiting for a humanitarian aid to be distributed in Gori, northwest of the capital Tbilisi, Georgia, Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2008. Some 80,000 refugees are in more than 600 centers in and around Tbilisi, primarily sheltered in schools, hospitals and previously abandoned buildings. (AP Photo /Sergei Grits)

From City Journal:

Fleeing Russian brutality, Georgians look to the West for support.

Russia’s invasion of Georgia has unleashed a refugee crisis all over the country and especially in its capital. Every school here in Tbilisi is jammed with civilians who fled aerial bombardment and shootings by the Russian military—or massacres, looting, and arson by irregular Cossack paramilitary units swarming across the border. Russia has seized and effectively annexed two breakaway Georgian provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It has also invaded the region of Gori, which unlike them had been under Georgia’s control. Gori is in the center of the country, just an hour’s drive from Tbilisi; 90 percent of its citizens have fled, and the tiny remainder live amid a violent mayhem overseen by Russian occupation forces that, despite Moscow’s claims to the contrary, are not yet withdrawing.

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My Comment: For each day that Georgia's refugee crisis continues .... the stronger that anti-Russian feeling will grow in the former satellite countries and republics of the Soviet Union. All of these former states do not want to experience the same thing that Georgia is going through at this moment.

The Russians will have to expect a lot of blow-back from these events. They will probably blame the U.S. and Europe for everything .... but after a while (how long I do not know) most of the people in Russia will know where the blame should fall .... and it is in the Kremlin.

Did Russia Plan It's Georgian Invasion And War

Russian soldiers travel past destroyed buildings in the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali. The Kremlin has promised to start withdrawing combat troops from Georgia on August 18 as Western pressure mounted on Russia to quit the ex-Soviet republic. (AFP/Dmitry Kostyukov)

Georgia Invasion 'Planned Since April' -- The National

The Russian invasion of Georgia was not a spontaneous response to what Moscow called “genocide” in South Ossetia but had been planned in detail since April, according to Russia’s leading independent defence analyst.

The plans all but ensured that fighting would break out before the end of August, though the exact timing depended on how readily the Georgian government could be provoked into starting it, Pavel Felgenhauer states in a new analysis of the conflict.

It is generally agreed that the spark for the war was the Nato summit meeting in Bucharest in April at which Georgia was promised eventual membership of the western alliance, in the teeth of opposition from the Russians.

According to Mr Felgenhauer, Vladimir Putin, who was president of Russia at the time but now serves as prime minister, set in motion a range of measures to support the two separatist territories in Georgia – South Ossetia and Abkhazia – and prepare for a military incursion.

Read more ....

Update: Did Russia Plan Its War In Georgia? -- Eurasia Net

My Comment: Both articles present an interesting hypothesis, but there is no smoking gun that reveals that this entire affair originated from Moscow. The fact of the matter is that there has always been turmoil in the Caucasus. Since the break-up of the Soviet Union we have had an Armenian Azerbaijan war over Nagorno Karabakh, a Chechnya war, Beslan school massacre in North Ossetia, Dagestan ethnic strife, as well as continued ethnic strife among the other 20 different ethnic groups that make up the region. Even Georgia itself has had turmoil and rebellion among numerous factions since its independence.

The Chechnyan war guaranteed a large presence of Russian soldiers will always be stationed in the region, and that contingency plans have always been on the table in the event of war getting out of hand. The fact that Russian soldiers were able to mobilize within 24 hours is no surprise to me .... after the Beslan massacre in North Ossetia a large Russian military presence became a permanent fixture.

The problem in the Caucasus is that borders have been drawn that do not take into consideration the ethnic and religious composition of the area. Because of history, this has guaranteed political and social tensions that stem from ethnicity. Until borders are redrawn and this turmoil will only continue.

It is easy to blame the Russians for everyone's problems .... but this ignores the real problem which is that people in the region have never gotten along with each other.

WAR IN THE CAUCASES -- NEWS UPDATES AND SUMMARIES, ANALYSTS,AND COMMENTARIES

A TV image of what Russian Channel 1 says is a convoy of
Russian tanks moving towards Tskhinvali on Friday

Russia Sends Troops Into Rebel Enclave in Georgia -- New York Times

MOSCOW — Russia sent troops rolling into a breakaway region of Georgia on Friday, after Georgian troops entered the capital of the pro-Russian enclave, in a sharp escalation of the conflict.

As Georgian forces declared they had won control of the enclave’s capital, Tskhinvali, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin declared that “war has started” and President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia accused Russia of a "well-planned invasion," according to Bloomberg.

One unconfirmed report said Georgian forces had shot down two Russian planes in the breakaway region, South Ossetia, and Georgia said that its aircraft had bombed a convoy of Russian tanks that moved into the area. Russia’s Channel 1 television showed Russian tanks entering South Ossetia. It reported that two battalions reinforced by tanks and armored personnel carriers were approaching Tskhinvali.

Read more ....

News On Georgia/Russia War

Full Coverage: Republic of Georgia -- Yahoo News
Putin Says "War Has Started" -- Bloomberg
Georgia calls for US help as Russians invade to defend South Ossetia -- The Guardian
Russian troops enter South Ossetia after Georgia offensive -- AFP
Russia sends forces into Georgian rebel conflict -- Reuters
Georgia conflict escalates as Russian tanks enter South Ossetia -- The Telegraph
Georgia says Russian tanks mean 'war' in South Ossetia -- Times Online
Georgian President says 'Russia fighting war' -- Reuters
Russia and Georgia on verge of conflict -- Herald Sun
Georgian army moves to retake South Ossetia -- Yahoo News
Georgia begins offensive in South Ossetia -- International Herald Tribune
Georgia launches major assault on South Ossetia -- Janes
ANALYSTS' VIEW-Security experts on South Ossetia fighting -- Reuters
TIMELINE - Georgia and Russia's worsening relations -- Reuters

My Comment: Georgia has underestimated the response that Russia was going to apply once Georgia invaded this breakaway region. The Russian Press, since the beginning of this week, have made it very clear that there would be consequences if Georgia should decide to invade South Ossetia. No one listened in Georgia.

For those who are curious on what is my opinion ..... the people of South Ossetia are a distinct people who have no interest in being part of Georgia. They do not share the same language, religion, or even ethnic background. They are a poor people who want nothing to do with Georgia.

My concerns are the following. (1) I am sure that there are still American advisers in the country, leftovers from last months training exercises with the Georgian Army. They should bugger out or stay very low. (2) I am relieved that Georgia is not a member of NATO. If their application was approved a few months ago when they requested for membership, we would now be at a state of war with Russia. (3) The Georgian Army should leave South Ossetia. They are not wanted by the majority of the people who live there, and they are no match against Russian tanks and its airforce. (4) Russian tanks and infantry will succeed in occupying South Ossetia. My worry is that they may go after Georgian forces in Georgia itself. This will escalate the conflict exponentially.

Special Note: I will be updating at 18:00 EST all news and events on this conflict.