Was The Iraq War Worth It? A Divided City Tries To Answer.

More than three years after a devastating bombing, the dome of the al-Askari mosque in Samarra is being rebuilt. The city itself is recovering from the war: Violence has faded and Iraqi security forces are in charge. (Ernesto Londono/The Washington Post)

From The Washington Post:

Samarra, Iraq -- The Shiite pilgrims arrive in crowded buses and are dropped off just outside the shrine's gate. They walk down a narrow path patrolled by security guards and lined with tall cement walls to pray at the al-Askari mosque, the resting place of two of the most revered figures in Shiite Islam.

The mosque, which once had a golden dome that sparkled in this city of gray, looks like a construction site, with piles of debris and scaffolding -- remnants of the February 2006 bombing that unleashed a brutal civil war between Sunnis and Shiites.

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My Comment: If .... in 25 years Iraq has a dynamic economy and a functional democracy with a free press and a tolerance of different cultural and religious groups .... I would have to say that the Iraq war was worth it.

If .... in 25 years Iraq is a dictatorship and/or a country fractured along sectarian lines, no democracy and limited free press (if any), a dysfunctional economy and a society equal to and/or close to what existed under Saddam Hussein .... the U.S. would blame themselves for wasting their time and treasure in Iraq. For the Iraqis, they will also blame themselves for having the opportunity of bettering themselves, but instead decided to go down a path of repeating history and the misery that it brings.

My prediction .... Iraq is going to succeed and the U.S. will deserve the credit for it. The reason why Iraq will succeed is simple .... there is too much wealth in oil for it to not be exploited and taken advantage of. With trillions of dollars in resources that are waiting to be exploited, all Iraqis know that to not do so will only condemn them to more violence and poverty in the future .... a prospect that I am sure the vast majority of Iraqis are fed up with and have no desire to experience it again.

Iraqi Security Forces Order of Battle: August 2008 Update

Iraqi and Coalition forces Order of Battle as of July 31, 2008.

From The Long War Journal:

The August 2008 updates to the Iraqi Security Forces Order of Battle are now available at the ISF OOB homepage. The significant changes to the Order of Battle that occurred in July are summarized below. There are major changes to the order of battle pages and map due to new formations, re-subordinations, and reorganizations.

ISF Weapons and Support Purchases. The Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program notified the US Congress of Iraqi government plans to purchase up to $10.8 billion worth of weapons, equipment, and support services in the last week of this month, including enough armor for a division equivalents and light attack helicopters.

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My Comment: The Iraqi Army has clearly gone a long way since the Iraq invasion of 2003. Spending $10.8 billion in arms is a testament to this growth and development.

Speculating ..... within 10 - 15 years Iraq will probably have the largest and best equipped army in the region. With their oil wealth, being trained by their American allies, coupled with purchases of military equipment and supplies (this will probably be entirely American) .... it is easy to foresee an Iraq playing an important strategic and political role in the region.

The next U.S. President and the Iraqi Government will be having some important decisions to make in the next two years. Fortunately, both countries are in sync with what their roles should be. The U.S. wants a stable Iraq that will not only provide the world with a steady stream of oil, but to also be a counter weight to Iran and to the extreme Islamic/Wahabbi state in Saudi Arabia. Iraq wants to develop their oil resources in their country, and it also wants its own military to protect its interests. Because of the past 5 years, one should not be surprise that they will look to the U.S. for the means to develop these goals.

The reconstitution of an Iraqi Army will encompass the training of 300,000 to 500,000 men, and the purchase of equipment to complement them. This is going to be big. The reconstitution of the Iraqi Air Force will probably involve the purchase of advanced U.S. fighter aircraft and attack helicopters, an effort that will involve the dispensation of tens of billions of dollars. This is a benefit for both countries.

Iraq's infrastructure and services will need to be rebuilt completely. I can only guess what that is going to cost. But having a population that is both eager and educated, coupled with a culture of capitalism and a desire to better oneself .... if I was a betting man I would say that Iraq will be OK in ten to fifteen years. I can only hope that the dividends of peace in the long run will make up for the suffering and the terrible cost to so many families of the past 5 years.