Two Disturbing Trends In Latin America

Venezuelan Army. Photo from Army Recognition

In Latin America, Weapons Buying Spreads Mistrust -- Miami Herald/McClatchy News

Weapons purchases in Latin America are soaring as nations cast a wary eye on their neighbors.

Whether it's called an ``arms race'' or a ``coincidental modernization'' of existing stocks, a wave of weapons purchases by Latin American nations is causing neighbors to watch each other with growing mistrust and fear.

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In this June 29, 2009 file photo, Bolivia's President Evo Morales, left, Honduras' ousted President Manuel Zelaya, second left, Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega, third left, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, fourth left, and Ecuador's President Rafael Correa pose for a photo at the Bolivarian Alternative of the Americas group, or ALBA, in Managua. A new wave of popular presidents is trying to do away with term limits, arguing they impede real change. As leaders move to extend their rule, opponents fearing a return to the caudillo era have done everything from throw eggs to stage coups to stop them. (AP Photo/Arnulfo Franco, File)

Latin American Leaders Move to Extend Their Rule -- Yahoo News/AP

MEXICO CITY — Horrified by the excesses of dictatorship, Latin Americans discarded the strongman model at the end of the 20th century and limited politicians' time in power.

Now a new wave of populist presidents is trying to do away with those limits, arguing they impede real change. As leaders in country after country move to extend their rule, opponents fearing a return to the "caudillo" era of authoritarian power have done everything to stop them — from throwing eggs to staging coups.

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My Comment: For many of these governments, the purchase of weapon systems is not to protect themselves from their neighbors .... but to protect themselves from their own citizens.

Could War Erupt In Arms-Spree LatAm?

T-72M Tanks that Venezuela Wants (Photo from Javno)

From BBC:

Is Latin America gearing up for conflict? Some regional commentators certainly fear that a handful of countries are teetering on the edge of a full-blown arms race they can ill afford - either financially or diplomatically.

That fear has been stoked in the past week by the coincidental announcement of two major procurement programmes.

Firstly, Brazil confirmed on 7 September that it will buy four Scorpene attack submarines from France, and will build 50 EC-725 transport helicopters under licence.

It has also opened negotiations with French company Dassault for a large order of Rafale fighter aircraft.

Then Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez returned last week from a successful shopping trip to Moscow, with T-72 main battle tanks and an unknown quantity of air defence systems in the bag.

Both countries are ramping up military expenditure to levels not seen in decades.

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More News On The Arms Race In Latin America

Preparing for war with Venezuela -- Colombia Reports
US fears Latin American arms race -- AFP
South America's Military Spending Spree -- America's Society
U.S. Worried Venezuelan Arms Purchases May Spark Race -- Bloomberg
Arms race grows in South America -- Kansas City/AP
In Latin America's Arms Race, Chávez Leads the Way -- Counter Terrorism Blog
Weapons put provocateur Chavez back in U.S. spotlight -- Reuters
US, Venezuela blame each other for S. America 'arms race' -- AFP
US-Colombia deal could fuel arms purchases -- AP
U.S., Uruguay concerned over S. America arms buildup -- UPI
US, Uruguay fear arms race in South America -- Canadian Press
UNASUR summit ends how it began: tense and without a deal -- Examiner
South America Ministers Fail to Agree on U.S. Bases -- Bloomberg
S. America meeting ends amid deadlock -- AFP
South American summit ends without agreement on Colombia bases -- Colombia Reports
FACTBOX: Major arms deals by Latin American countries -- Reuters

Chavez Goes Weapons Shopping in Russia Amid Regional Arms Race

Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez was the guest of honor, together with Bolivia’s President Evo Morales for the symbolic indigenous inauguration of Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa.

From Bloomberg:

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez heads to Moscow today to shop for tanks, air defense systems and other weaponry as Latin America's arms race quickens amid signs that his regional influence is waning.

Past Venezuelan arms purchases from Russia have strengthened ties with Moscow as its rivalry with the U.S. intensifies over President George W. Bush's plans for an Eastern Europe missile defense system and other issues. Chavez, 53, also plans to visit Belarus, a Russian ally that the U.S. considers a dictatorship.

Chavez ``regularly refers to us as an `empire,' opposes our initiatives in the Americas and seeks out our adversaries as friends and allies,'' Assistant U.S. Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs Thomas Shannon said July 17 in testimony to a congressional committee.

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More News On South America's Arm Race

Chavez eyes major arms purchases in Russia: Report -- Times Of India
Venezuela hails 'strategic partnership' with Russia -- RIA Novosti
A Controversial Trade: Russia Arms Sales To Venezuela -- Russia Profile
Venezuela is the most Violent Country in South America -- Oped News
New Brazil-Colombia defense cooperation agreement -- Blogging By Boz
Colombia to take part in Defense council Unasur -- Colombia Reports

My Comment: Latin America is quietly entering a phase in which two distinct and hostile political blocs are being assembled. On the one side are government's pursuing a socialist/liberal policy towards economic affairs, but with an anti-democratic agenda (i.e. opponents to the government need not apply). The titular head of this group is Venezuela, flushed with oil money and a certain zeal to influence neighboring countries. Latin American governments that are sympathetic and/or that have been bought are Bolivia, Ecuador, Argentina (bribary scandal and a Venezuelan slush fund set up in Argentina is still making news), Nicaragua, and .... of course .... Cuba.

On the opposite side are countries like Colombia, Mexico (to a certain degree), Uruguay, Chile, Peru, and the 800 lb. gorilla in the room .... Brazil. Smaller countries like El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama, Guyana, Paraguay are neutral.

Latin American countries have gone to war in the past .... Chile, Bolivia, and Peru in 1879 - 1884, and Colombia/Ecuador/Venezuela came close to going to war this year. Trends indicate that the next conflicts will originate from ideological and economic disagreements, and the use of foreign policy to subdue or quiet dissent at home.

The concern is Venezuela. It is riding on an oil boom at the moment, but it has also pursued a policy of nationalization of industries and the suppression of dissidents (union leaders, church leaders, civil rights organizations) .... this suppression is increasing with time. Once the oil boom ends .... and all booms end .... the economic dislocation that it would cause will severely impact governments such as Venezuela's.

If history is any indication .... dictators with a messianic complex do not keep the peace for long.