Will There Be A ‘Black Swan' National Security Event in 2024?

.@CBS_Herridge predicts in 2024, the U.S. may have "a national security event with high impact that's very hard to predict," pointing to ongoing wars and U.S. division as factors creating "fertile ground for our adversaries like North Korea, China and Iran" to take advantage of. pic.twitter.com/Vx8MTnn1W8

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) December 24, 2023

Modernity: CBS News Reporter Makes “Dark” Prediction of ‘Black Swan Event’ in 2024  

Major “national security event” that would negatively impact America. 

CBS News investigative reporter Catherine Herridge made a “dark” prediction that 2024 will produce a ‘Black Swan Event’ which shocks the world. Herridge made the call during a round table discussion when she was asked by host Margaret Brennan about what we could expect to see unfold over the coming year. 

“Well, mine’s a little dark,” Herridge stated. “I just feel a lot of concern that 2024 may be the year of a black swan event. This is a national security event with high impact that’s very hard to predict.”  

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WNU Editor: We live in an age where what was rare in the past is now becoming normal. As to the possibility of a "Black Swan" national security event in 2024? I would not bet against it.

Warren Buffet Predicts Taiwan War

Fortune: Warren Buffett says the threat of war was a ‘consideration’ in his decision to dump the bulk of his $4 billion stake in chipmaker giant TSMC 

Warren Buffett practically wrote the book on buy-and-hold investing, so when the Oracle of Omaha sells stock after just a few months, he must have good reason. 

The 92-year-old CEO of Berkshire Hathaway said he dumped the bulk of his $4.1 billion stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) within the space of one financial quarter last year in part owing to the risk of war in the island nation. 

Rising geopolitical tensions were “a consideration,” he said in an interview with Nikkei on Tuesday, arguing that he had better places to invest his firm’s capital even if the world's largest chipmaker by volume is a well-managed company.  

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Update: Warren Buffett gives reason for surprise sale of stake in Taiwan’s TSMC (CNN)  

WNU Editor: Selling his stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) only a few months after buying it is just another indication on how quickly the geopolitical situation is changing.

These Are The Major Risks That Many Expect Will Occur When The Pandemic Is Over

Zero Hedge: What's At Risk: An 18-Month View Of A Post-COVID World

As the world continues to grapple with the effects of COVID-19, no part of society seems to be left unscathed. Fears are surmounting around the economy’s health, and dramatic changes in life as we know it are also underway.

In today’s graphic, Visual Capitalist's Iman Ghosh uses data from a World Economic Forum survey of 347 risk analysts to show the likelihood of major risks we face in the aftermath of the pandemic.

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WNU Editor: Bottom line. Everyone is predicting dire economic times.

Report: Improving U.S. Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance, And Targeting

The Nimitz-class aircraft carriers USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74), and USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) (rear) conduct dual aircraft carrier strike group operations in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations in support of security and stability in the Indo-Asia-Pacific in Philippine Sea on June 18, 2016. Courtesy Jake Greenberg/U.S. Navy/Handout via REUTERS

Seth Cropsey, Hudson Institute: If You Can’t See ’Em, You Can’t Shoot ’Em: Improving U.S. Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Targeting

Introduction

The United States today faces the greatest challenge to its international stature since the mid-twentieth century. America’s adversaries, despite their differences, threaten to come together in a coalition that can dominate Eurasia and by extension, jeopardize American strategic interests and values globally.

Of several potential flashpoints for confrontation, the Western Pacific has the potential to be the most decisive. The most powerful of the three US rivals is Asian, and it is the only adversary with the economic and political power to field a technologically sophisticated, quantitatively superior military force.

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WNU Editor: This report recognizes the implications of a Russia - China military coalition, and the threat that China poses in the West Pacific.

Foreign Diplomats Betting On Trump Win In 2020

Carlos Barria / Reuters

Politico: ‘People don’t want to be stupid twice’: Foreign diplomats brace for Trump 2020 win

The expectation that Trump will win could affect how allies and adversaries approach negotiations with the U.S.

Foreign diplomats are still feeling burned after assuming Donald Trump would lose in 2016 — and they don’t want to be fooled again.

So many of them are quietly preparing for and predicting a Trump victory in 2020. Some are even trying to game out who will be on the president’s team in a second term. The belief that Trump will win reelection — gleaned from conversations with around 20 foreign diplomats, international officials and analysts who deal with them — appears widespread.

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Update: 'People Don't Want To Be Stupid Twice': Foreign Diplomats Betting On Trump Win In 2020 (Zero Hedge)

WNU Editor: Among all of my foreign diplomat contacts, with the exception of the Russian diplomats, everyone is hoping that President Trump will be defeated in 2020. But when I asked on who do they expect to win. Everyone of these same contacts expect President Trump to win in 2020. The reasons given .... he’s the incumbent, the U.S. economy is strong, and the Democrats have not selected a candidate to challenge him.

Here Are Five Maps And Charts That Will Tell The Story Of 2018

Source: Geopolitical Futures

Jacob Shapiro, Mauldin Economics: Five Maps and Charts That Tell the Story of 2018

Almost a year ago to the day, we wrote an article titled "The Geopolitics of 2017 in Four Maps." The premise was simple: We picked out four of the best maps our graphic designers (TJ Lensing, Jay Dowd, and Mandy Walsh) had made in the past year. We selected the maps based not only on how awesome they were, but also on how closely they linked to our predictions for the year ahead. As it turned out, that article was one of our most popular in 2017.

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WNU Editor: No arguments from me on this one. 

2017 Was A Bad Year For Political Pundits

President Trump celebrates with Congressional Republican on the South Lawn of the White House. REUTERS/Carlos Barria

Politico: The Worst Political Predictions of 2017

Spoiler alert: Everybody was wrong.

A year ago at this time, the world was falling apart. That, or on the verge of being saved. Or maybe something in between; it depended on whom you asked.

The uncertainty of that moment was the natural heir of all the surprises of 2016: the Brexit vote in favor of leaving the European Union, the election of Donald Trump, the defeat of Hillary Clinton, the World Series victory of the Chicago Cubs, and so on.

From that vantage point, predictions about the year we’re now finishing—a time that would mark the end of the Obama era, the first year of the Trump presidency, and a rolling elite identity crisis that has reached every corner of the globe—seemed even more uncertain than usual.

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WNU Editor: They are some winners here.

Global Military and Political Trends That Will Shape 2018

South Front: Military and Political Trends Of 2017 That Will Shape 2018

2017 presented the world with a number of crises, among which were the continued wars in the Middle Ease and the spread of terrorism, the humanitarian crises in Africa and Asia, the rising military tensions over North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs, and the militarization of both the South China Sea and eastern Europe. Throughout the past year regional and global powers have repeatedly been on the verge of open military conflict, any of which may yet still lead to large regional wars.

In the Middle East the war on ISIS, the Iran nuclear deal, the crisis in Lebanon, and Israeli-Arab tensions took center stage.

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WNU Editor: A long but comprehensive read.

Predictions For 2018

Pfc. Kevin March kneels atop a cliff overlooking the Arghandab River Valley to provide security for his squad as they climb up the cliff from the valley below in the Arghandab district, Afghanistan, Jan. 31, 2011. March is assigned to the 4th Infantry Division's Company C, 1st Battalion, 66th Armored Regiment, 1st Brigade Combat Team. (Photo Credit: Spc. Breanne Pye, 1st Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division)

Business Insider Military & Defense Team: Here's what we think is going to happen in 2018

2017 has been a roller coaster — both in the US and abroad, the year ends with the world in a very different place from where it was 12 months ago.

Now, as has become our tradition, the Business Insider military-and-defense team will predict the future.

In the past, we've done well. Last year we correctly identified many of the problems the world would face in 2017, including some that directly challenged the new US president, Donald Trump.

It's clear Trump will have more decisions and crises to face in the coming year. To be sure, other global leaders will as well, but the "America First" president has proved to be unpredictable, if nothing else.

Your guides for this year's journey are Peter Jacobs, Alex Lockie, Christopher Woody, Daniel Brown, David Choi, and Ben Brimelow.

Here's what we think will happen in 2018:

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WNU Editor: No disagreement from me on any of these predictions.

Experts Believe There Is A 50/50 Chance Of A U.S. - North Korean War In 2018

President Donald Trump poses for a photo with military commanders at the U.S. Eighth Army Operation Command Center at U.S. military installation Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, November 7, 2017. Also pictured is U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Newsweek: Will the U.S. Go to War With North Korea? Expert Estimates 50/50 Chance of Conflict in 2018

A war between the U.S. and North Korea is looking increasingly likely, with a nonproliferation expert estimating a 50/50 chance of conflict breaking out over the next year.

Mark Fitzpatrick, the executive director of the global security think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Americas, is the latest expert to closely evaluate the risk of a nuclear war as President Donald Trump continues to seek an international response shunning the North Korean regime in his five-nation Asia tour.

“Given the personalities involved on both sides, I do not rate continuation of the status quo as higher than 50 percent,” Fitzpatrick wrote in a post published Wednesday on the IISS website. He noted that he was not the only person to predict an increased likelihood of conflict, as former CIA director John Brennan recently put the chance of war breaking out at 20-25 percent.

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WNU Editor: I am still sticking to my prediction that there is a zero chance of a U.S.- North Korean war in the foreseeable future. But I will admit that when I read reports like this one .... North Korea orders workers in China, Russia to return home (UPI) .... my concerns do rise.

Stratfor Worldview’s 2017 Fourth Quarter Forecast

Stratfor: Stratfor Worldview’s 2017 Fourth Quarter Forecast for Geopolitical Developments

Stratfor Worldview’s 2017 Fourth Quarter Forecast for Geopolitical Developments

Based on the principle that transformative world events are not random, but are in fact predictable, Stratfor develops decade, annual and quarterly forecasts. These forecast are built upon Stratfor’s geopolitical methodology, our framework for identifying and forecasting the fundamental trends shaping the international system. Below are the global trends highlighted in Stratfor’s forecast for the fourth-quarter of 2017. The complete forecast is available at Stratfor Worldview.

Forecast Highlights:

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WNU Editor:This is Stratfor's predictions for the quarter.

The Geopolitical Hotspots of 2017

George Friedman and Jacob L. Shapiro, Maudlin Economics: These 4 Maps Show The Geopolitical Hotspots of 2017

In geopolitics, a deep understanding of geography and power allows you to do two things. First, it helps you comprehend the forces that will shape international politics and how they will do so. Second, it helps you distinguish what is important from what isn’t.

This makes maps a vital part of our work, here at This Week in Geopolitics (subscribe here). So we have decided to showcase some of the best maps our graphics team (TJ Lensing and Jay Dowd) made in 2016.

These four maps help explain the foundations of what will be the most important geopolitical developments of 2017.

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WNU Editor: I would also add central Asia and north Africa to this mix.

Biggest Global Risks Of 2017

WNU Editor: My biggest worry is our debt crisis. Governments are living waaayyy beyond their means and promises.

U.S. Intelligence Paint As Growing Risk Of Conflicts Between And Within Nations For The Next Five Years

Reuters: U.S. intelligence study warns of growing conflict risk

The risk of conflicts between and within nations will increase over the next five years to levels not seen since the Cold War as global growth slows, the post-World War Two order erodes and anti-globalization fuels nationalism, said a U.S. intelligence report released on Monday.

"These trends will converge at an unprecedented pace to make governing and cooperation harder and to change the nature of power – fundamentally altering the global landscape," said "Global Trends: Paradox of Progress," the sixth in a series of quadrennial studies by the U.S. National Intelligence Council.

The findings, published less than two weeks before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20, outlined factors shaping a "dark and difficult near future," including a more assertive Russia and China, regional conflicts, terrorism, rising income inequality, climate change and sluggish economic growth.

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Update: U.S. Intelligence Sees Gloomy Global Trends for Next Five Years (Bloomberg).

WNU Editor: For more details on the report you can go here .... Global Trends: U.S. National Intelligence Council.

The 10 Biggest Global Risks In 2017

Reuters/KCNA/Files

Elena Holodny, Business Insider: The 10 biggest risks the world faces in 2017

2016 saw a repositioning of the pieces on the geopolitical board, with shocks such as the rise of populism and rejection of globalism, Britons voting to leave the EU, the failed coup in Turkey, Russia's military intervention in Syria, the end of America's pivot to Asia, and so on.

But perhaps the biggest surprise of all was the November election of Donald Trump, whose "Make America Great Again" slogan could suggest a world with no global leader.

"The triumph of 'America first' as the primary driver of foreign policy in the world's only superpower marks a break with decades of US exceptionalism and a belief in the indispensability of US leadership, however flawed and uneven," Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan wrote in the firm's annual overview of top risks.

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Stratfor's Chilling Predictions For 2017

China's President Xi Jinping attends a meeting with Malaysia's Prime Minister Najib Razak at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, in Beijing, China, November 3, 2016.REUTERS/Jason Lee

Stratfor: These are Stratfor's chilling predictions for a tumultuous 2017

The convulsions to come in 2017 are the political manifestations of much deeper forces in play. In much of the developed world, the trend of aging demographics and declining productivity is layered with technological innovation and the labor displacement that comes with it.

China's economic slowdown and its ongoing evolution compound this dynamic. At the same time the world is trying to cope with reduced Chinese demand after decades of record growth, China is also slowly but surely moving its own economy up the value chain to produce and assemble many of the inputs it once imported, with the intent of increasingly selling to itself. All these forces combined will have a dramatic and enduring impact on the global economy and ultimately on the shape of the international system for decades to come.

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WNU Editor: There are more predictions here .... Here's what we think is going to happen in 2017 (Paul Szoldra, Alex Lockie and Christopher Woody, Business Insider).

Stratfor's Second-Quarter Global Intelligence Forecast 2016

Stratfor: Global Intelligence, Second-Quarter Forecast 2016

OVERVIEW:

It's tempting to blame Syria for all the geopolitical intrigue that will characterize the second quarter of 2016. It is the scene of a protracted civil war, the source of Europe's migrant crisis and a major complication in Turkey's struggle with the Kurds. But in truth, Syria is merely a pawn in a larger game played by more powerful countries, each with its own designs in the Middle East.

Chief among them is Russia, which recently withdrew most of its troops from Syria. The military drawdown will not fundamentally alter the civil war, but it will certainly shape the political considerations of the countries invested in the conflict's outcome. Perhaps that was Moscow's intention all along.

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WNU Editor: No surprises in this analysis (from my vantage point).

The Mathematics Of Crime And Terrorism

Washington Post: The eerie math that could predict terrorist attacks

A terrorist attack might seem like one of the least predictable of events. Terrorists work in small, isolated cells, often using simple weapons and striking at random. Indeed, the element of unpredictability is part of what makes terrorists so scary – you never know when or where they will strike.

However, new research shows that terror attacks may not be as unpredictable as people think. A paper by Stephen Tench and Hannah Fry, mathematicians at the University College London, and Paul Gill, a security and crime expert, shows that terrorist attacks often follow a general pattern that can be modeled and predicted using math.

Predicting human behavior is obviously a difficult thing to do, and one can't always extrapolate from past events to predict the future. As one academic discussion of the topic points out, if you made a forecast in 1864 about how many presidents would be assassinated in office based on historical data, the expected number would be zero. But over the next 40 years, four U.S. presidents were killed in office.

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WNU Editor: The geek in me loves this stuff.

Stratfor's Annual Forecast 2016

Stratfor: Annual Forecast 2016

Introduction

With old geopolitical realities resurfacing across Eurasia and commodity prices stuck in a slump, 2016 is shaping up to be an unsettling year for much of the world.

A logical place to begin is the country that bridges Europe and Asia: Turkey. This is the year when Turkey, nervous but more politically coherent than it was last year, will likely make a military move into northern Syria while trying to enlarge its footprint in northern Iraq. Turkey will not only confront the Islamic State but will also keep Kurdish expansion in check as it raises the stakes in its confrontations with its old rivals, Russia and Iran.

11 Chilling Predictions For What The World Will Look Like In 10 Years

Business Insider: Stratfor has 11 chilling predictions for what the world will look like in 10 years

Earlier this year, private intelligence firm Strategic Forecasting, or Stratfor, recently published its Decade Forecast in which it projects the next 10 years of global political and economic developments.

While international analysts often try their hand at predicting the major events of the coming year, Stratfor believes that it's identified the major trends of the next 10.

In many ways, Stratfor thinks the world a decade from now will be more dangerous place, with US power waning and other prominent countries experiencing a period of chaos and decline.

WNU editor: A Russia collapsing into mini-autonomous regions .... I just do not see that happening .... but political unrest .... especially after Putin .... that is a very real possibility. Same for China .... political instability and an unwillingness of the central government to reform may lead to dissent and repression. As for the other predictions .... check them out.