Russia's Intelligence Chief Accuses The U.S. Of Promoting Revolution In Belarus

Sergei Naryshkin, head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, attends a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Russia, Feb. 21, 2020. (AP Photo)

Reuters: Russia accuses U.S. of promoting revolution in Belarus, toughens stance

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia on Wednesday accused Washington of trying to foment a revolution in Belarus, where it sent its defence minister for talks on military ties, in a sign that Moscow’s support for embattled Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko was hardening.

Mass protests since an Aug. 9 election marred by vote-rigging allegations have posed the biggest threat yet to Lukashenko, and the Kremlin’s backing has become vital for his chances of extending his 26-year rule.

The former Soviet state farm boss travelled to Russia on Monday for his first talks with President Vladimir Putin since the crisis began, coming away with a $1.5 billion loan to prop up his Soviet-style command economy.

On Wednesday, Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia’s SVR Foreign Intelligence Service, accused Washington of working behind the scenes to overthrow Lukashenko in a coup, some of Moscow’s strongest rhetoric over the crisis yet.

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Update #1: Russia: US trying to foment revolution in Belarus (The Hill)
Update #2: Russia's intelligence chief Naryshkin accuses US of funding Belarus protests (Daily Sabah/AP)

WNU Editor: The seeds for revolution in Belarus have been building for a long time. The problem is Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, and the view of many in Belarus that he is not their legitimate leader.

Belarus President Lukashenko In Talks With Russian President Putin At Sochi

RT: Lukashenko meets Putin in Sochi as western-backed Belarusian opposition figure Tikhanovskaya threatens to cancel any agreements

Exiled former Belarusian presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has criticized Russia’s President Vladimir Putin for meeting with the “usurper,” a term she has used to describe the country’s president, Alexander Lukashenko.

Tikhanovskaya ran against the incumbent in an election on August 9, as the most prominent opposition candidate allowed on the ballot. According to the official results, Lukashenko received 80 percent of the vote, but Tikhanovskaya says her private opinion polling showed her to be the real winner. She has refused to recognize the election result as legitimate.

On Monday morning, Lukashenko arrived in the southern Russian city of Sochi for a much-anticipated face-to-face meeting with Putin. Amid speculation over their true goals, Tikhanovskaya sent a message to the Russian leader that any agreements signed would be void, if she ever comes to power.

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WNU Editor: Both leaders are hoping that winter will temper down these protests. I do not think that is going to happen. I know a lot of people in Belarus, and they are all telling me the same thing. Everyone wants change, and they want Belarus President Lukashenko gone. My prediction. What is happening in Belarus reminds me on what happened in Poland and the Solidarity Movement in the 1980s. They were suppressed by the Communist government for years, but in the end the government collapsed and the opposition leaders took over. The same thing is probably going to happen in Belarus.

More News On Today's Meeting Between Belarus President Lukashenko And Russian President Putin

Putin, Lukashenko begin talks in Sochi -- TASS
Belarus President Lukashenko seeks backing from Russia's Vladimir Putin -- ABC News Online
Lukashenko meets with Putin for 'integration' talks as Belarus unrest continues -- France 24
Lukashenko feels the heat: Belarus president mops his brow and adopts submissive pose before Putin as he visits the Russian leader in hope of winning his support to stay in power -- Daily Mail
Lukashenko seeks Putin's help in attempt to survive mass protests -- Al Jazeera
Russia Remains Committed to All Agreements With Belarus, Putin Stresses -- Sputnik
It’s up to Belarusians to handle domestic situation without external pressure, says Putin -- TASS
Russia to loan Belarus $1.5bn as Lukashenko tells Putin: 'a friend is in trouble' -- The Guardian
Belarus protests: Putin doubles down on support for Lukashenko with US$1.5 billion loan -- Bloomberg
Russia to extend $1.5 bln loan to Belarus -- TASS
Putin pledges a $1.5 billion loan while meeting Lukashenko in Sochi -- DW
Putin faces tough choice on Belarus: How to sort out Lukashenko without giving ground -- Luke McGee and Mary Ilyushina, CNN

Is The Kremlin's Silence On Belarus Working Against Its Long Term Strategic Interests?

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Sochi, Russia, December 7, 2019. Reuters

Nina L. Khrushcheva, Project Syndicate: Belarus Is Putin’s to Lose

Each new day of protests works against Russia’s long-term interests in Belarus, and fuels distrust and hostility toward the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin should openly express solidarity with Belarusian society instead of cautiously supporting President Alexander Lukashenko.

MINSK/MOSCOW – Huge protests have swept Belarus since Aleksandr Lukashenko fraudulently claimed to have won 80% of the vote in the August 9 presidential election. The country’s future may now hinge on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994, not without popular support, even gaining the sobriquet Batka (“father”). But in recent weeks, enraged citizens from all walks of life – including factory workers, doctors, and journalists – have been demonstrating and striking, and young women have suddenly become the face of the opposition. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the former teacher whom many believe won the election, is not organizing the protests, but her resolve is channeling the widespread discontent.

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WNU Editor: I agree with the above analysis. Especially its description on who the Belarusian people are (i.e. naive, trusting, obedient, etc.) .... or should I say on who they use to be. For eastern European watchers, the above post is a must read. My prediction. The Kremlin will stay quiet until the end.

These Are The Signs To Look For If Russia Was About To Invade Belarus

MOSCOW, RUSSIA - JUNE 24, 2020: T-80BVM tanks drive down Vasilyevsky Spusk Square after a Victory Day military parade marking the 75th anniversary of the victory in World War II. Victory Day parades across Russia have been postponed from 9 May to 24 June due to restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus. Valery Sharifulin/TASS (Photo by Valery Sharifulin\TASS via Getty Images) Valery Sharifulin/TASS

Michael Peck, Forbes: These Are The Warning Signs If Russia Were About To Invade Belarus

Elite paratroopers placed on alert. A surge in military truck convoys and cargo flights.

These would be some of the signs that Russia is preparing to invade its neighbor Belarus.

To be clear, massive Russian military intervention in Belarus is not the most likely scenario. The Kremlin is clearly concerned by the turmoil in Belarus, where massive protests have erupted against president Alexander Lukashenko, who just won a sixth term in an election widely denounced as rigged. But occupying a European nation of 10 million people would be expensive economically and politically.

“Speculation that Russia would send military forces to defend Belarus skips several steps of other, more likely Russian support,” Dara Massicot, an analyst at U.S. think tank RAND, tells me. “Short of military police perhaps, Russian military forces are not the best tool at the Kremlin’s disposal to bolster the Lukashenko government. Tanks and other battlefield weapons are not suitable tools for riot suppression.”

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WNU Editor: I do not see a Russian military intervention in Belarus. What I see is a continuation of this policy .... Belarusians can cope with the situation in the country on their own - Lavrov (TASS).

The Kremlin Is Betting That Belarusian President Lukashenko Will Stay In Power 'For Now'

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko take a break during a match of the Night Hockey League teams in Rosa Khutor in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia, February 7, 2020. Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

Reuters: Putin bets on Lukashenko keeping power in Belarus for now: sources

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko will probably cling to power for now despite protests against him and is content to let him sweat it out, two sources close to the Kremlin said.

Lukashenko, a long-standing but truculent Moscow ally, has been buffeted by nearly two weeks of street protests which have loosened his grip on power in a country many Russians regard as another Russian region in all but name.

That, the two sources said, suits the Kremlin. It is keen to deal with a weakened Lukashenko who has resisted and sometimes publicly railed against Moscow’s offers of deeper political and economic integration.

“They’ll be happy to wait a while and watch him struggle a bit. They don’t like him much, but they still back him,” said one of the sources, who regularly speaks to senior government and Kremlin officials.

The second source said a diminished Lukashenko would suit the Kremlin’s needs.

“Lukashenko will be critically weakened. You’ll be able to make mince meat out of him. Our guys will definitely use this.”

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WNU Editor: A direct Russian intervention in Belarus would only make the situation worse. This is a crisis that only the Belarusians can resolve.

Will Russia President Putin Protect The President Of Belarus?

The Week: Is Putin pulling away from Lukashenko?

Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing the role of mediator between European leaders like German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron and embattled Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, whom protesters have called on to step down after 26 years in power. As things stand, it seems like Putin is hedging toward a diplomatic solution, rather than unequivocally backing his old ally.

Putin spoke with Merkel, Macron, and Charles Michel, the president of the European Council on the phone Tuesday. Each side had some conditions for the other — Merkel told Putin that Lukashenko must refrain from violence against protesters, release political detainees, and engage with the opposition, while Putin warned that European interference in internal Belarusian affairs was unacceptable. But still, the discussions suggest there's some semblance of diplomatic plan under way, and Putin seems willing to participate; he reportedly followed up those conversations with another with Lukashenko.

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WNU Editor: Russian President Putin's priority is to represent and protect Russia's interests, not the interest of the Belarusian President. So is the protection of the Belarusian President in the best interests of Russia? IMHO the answer is no. But Moscow does not want outsiders to dictate what happens in Belarus, and the Kremlin will respond if they believe such an intervention is happening.

More News And Analysis On What Russia May Do In Belarus

As Belarus protests grow, Putin shows no sign of propping up embattled ruler -- NBC
Russia tells UNSC only Belarusian themselves can resolve national problems -- TASS
Belarus Protests Grow As Russia Warns Germany, France Not To Interfere -- NPR
Putin tells Merkel external intervention in Belarus would be unacceptable -- Reuters
As EU talks sanctions, Putin warns Merkel & Macron foreign interference in Belarus’ affairs is ‘unacceptable’ & could backfire -- RT
As Protests Build in Belarus, Putin Warns European Leaders to Keep Out -- WSJ
Putin pledges ‘assistance’ to Belarus — but he has many good reasons to stay out -- Market Watch
Putin and Belarus: Five Reasons Not to Save Lukashenko -- Stephen Sestanovich, Council on Foreign Relations

Russian President Putin Offers Military Support To Belarus In Controlling Protests

People attend an opposition demonstration to protest against police violence and to reject the presidential election results near the Government House in Independence Square in Minsk, Belarus August 14, 2020. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko

Reuters: Protesters pack Belarus capital, Russia says military help available

MINSK/MOSCOW (Reuters) - Belarusians chanting “Step down!” filled the centre of the capital Minsk on Sunday in the biggest protest so far against what they said was the fraudulent re-election a week ago of longtime president Alexander Lukashenko.

Russia said it would offer Lukashenko military help if necessary, but there was no visible police presence at the protest, which attracted around 200,000 people, a Reuters reporter estimated. At least two protesters have died and thousands have been detained in a crackdown since the vote.

The atmosphere at the rallies, which wrapped up late into the evening, was celebratory on the whole, with people carrying the red and white flags used in Belarus after the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union before Lukashenko restored the Soviet version four years later.

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Update: Russia offers military help to Belarus (The Hill)

WNU Editor: A Russian intervention in Belarus would be a huge mistake. I know there is no support in Russia to support Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. None. Zero. But President Putin is now entertaining that option .... The choices facing Putin in Belarus are all fraught with risk (Nick Paton Walsh, CNN). I can only hope that he stays out of this mess.

Update #2: There is no opportunity for the West in Belarus. This is a mess that they should also stay out .... Putin Doesn’t Want to Intervene in Belarus. That’s an Opportunity for the West (Anna Arutunyan, Moscow Times).

Belarusian President Lukashenko Says Putin Ready To 'Help Ensure Security'

Straits Times/AFP: Belarus strongman says Russia's Putin ready to 'help ensure security' amid peaceful protests over rule

MINSK (AFP) - President Alexander Lukashenko said on Saturday (Aug 15) that his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin has offered full assistance to ensure security in Belarus as thousands held peaceful protests against his rule.

"To talk about the military element, we have an agreement with Russia as part of the union state and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). Such situations fall under that agreement," Lukashenko told defence chiefs, quoted by Belta state news agency.

"I had a long, substantial conversation today with the Russian president... We agreed that at our very first request, comprehensive help will be given to ensure the security of Belarus."

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Update #1: Lukashenko says Russia will provide assistance in ensuring Belarus’ security (TASS).

WNU Editor: The Kremlin is saying it differently. More like we all agreed that this crisis should be handled "peacefully" .... Kremlin Predicts Swift Resolution of Belarus Unrest (Moscow Times/AFP).

Update #2: Belarusian President Lukashenko will choose the option that will keep him in power .... Belarus' Lukashenko Faces a Terrible Choice: Isolation or Further Integration With Russia (National Interest).

Update #3: This is nothing but a diversion .... Belarus’ Lukashenko to move air assault brigade to country’s western border amid protests & NATO activity in Poland, Lithuania (RT).

Belarus President Lukashenko Pleads To Putin For Help As Protests Grow

Reuters: Putin, Lukashenko say problems in Belarus will be solved as protests surge

MINSK/MOSCOW (Reuters) - The leaders of Russia and Belarus agreed on Saturday that the problems in Belarus would be resolved soon, the Kremlin said, as tens of thousands took to the streets in Minsk once again to urge President Alexander Lukashenko to quit.

Accused of rigging last Sunday’s election, Lukashenko had earlier issued an appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin as the Belarus leader grapples with the biggest challenge to his 26-year rule and the threat of new Western sanctions.

Ties between the two traditional allies had been under strain before the election, as Russia scaled back the subsidies that propped up Lukashenko’s government. Russia sees Belarus as a strategic buffer against NATO and the EU.

Statements by both sides contained a pointed reference to a “union state” between the two countries. Lukashenko has previously rejected calls by Moscow for closer economic and political ties as an assault on his country’s sovereignty.

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WNU Editor: Belarus President Lukashenko is desperate. He has no support. Even Russian media is now openly hostile towards him .... What Has Been The Response In Russia To The Unrest In Belarus (August 14, 2020). Lukashenko is also warning Putin that should he fall he would be next. Will such a scenario play out like that .... my answer is no. The situation in Belarus is very different from what is happening in Russia. Unlike Belarus where the entire population is against Belarus President Lukashenko, Putin still has a lot of supporters in Russia. So what is next? The Kremlin will adopt a wait and see approach. My contacts, family, and friends in Russia are telling me that regardless of what happens to Belarusian President Lukashenko, because of geography and history ties between Belarus and Russia will not change. And in Belarus itself, the demonstrations for President Lukashenko to step down will escalate .... Belarus: Thousands attend protester's funeral amid unrest (BBC).

What Has Been The Response In Russia To The Unrest In Belarus

Natalia Fedosenko / TASS

Moscow Times: Russian Media Responds to Belarus Protest Crackdown

Tens of thousands of peaceful demonstrators in Belarus have gathered in recent days to protest President Alexander Lukashenko’s disputed victory and the violent police crackdown that followed.

Belarusians formed human chains in cities including Minsk, many wearing white and holding flowers, to protest against police brutality during the four nights of unrest after Sunday’s vote. Official statements Thursday suggested a more conciliatory approach following the public outrage toward extreme police violence, which included shootings and beatings.

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WNU Editor: The Kremlin would be happy to see Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko gone. The Putin - Lukashenko relationship/friendship ended about a year ago. Russian media is now all in on seeing President Alexander Lukashenko gone (check out the news links below). Among all of my friends and family in Russia who care on what happens in Belarus .... they want to see him gone.

Update: If this Russian news story is true, and if the security forces are standing down, President Lukashenko is finished .... Riot police officers lower shields during protest in Minsk (TASS).

Russian Media Coverage Of The Unrest In Belarus

Live Updates: Tractor Factory Workers Go to Minsk Gov't House After Final Election Results Unveiled -- Sputnik
Mass Protests in Belarus After Presidential Election: Updates -- Sputnik
Thousands of tractor plant workers head to downtown Minsk after PM’s refusal to talk -- TASS
Thousands of workers march to Belarus parliament from Minsk tractor factory as protests intensify -- RT
Belarus Opposition Leader Tikhanovskaya Calls on Authorities to Halt Violence and Engage in Dialogue -- Sputnik

Belarus President Lukashenko Says Russia Lying Over 'Mercenaries'. Says Moscow Wants A Revolution

Reuters: President of Belarus accuses Russia of lying, warns of revolution plot

MINSK (Reuters) - Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Moscow on Tuesday of lying in a row about the arrest of a group of Russian security contractors in Minsk, and said unnamed forces were plotting a revolution that would fail.

In a fiery address to the nation as early voting began in an election in which he is seeking to extend his 26-year rule, Lukashenko said he would protect Belarus from opponents he portrayed as wreckers controlled by “puppet masters” abroad.

He faces his toughest challenge for years in Sunday’s election because of public anger over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy and human rights in the strategically important east European country of 9.5 million.

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More News On The Growing Tensions Between Russia And Belarus

Belarus ruler Lukashenko says Russia lying over 'mercenaries' -- BBC
Lukashenka Accuses Opponents Of Attempting Return To 'Chaos' -- RFE
Belarus: Lukashenko slams Moscow 'lies' as row with Russia escalates -- DW
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko under fire -- BBC
Russia says suspected mercenaries detained by Belarus were going to Latin America -- Reuters
Early voting begins in Belarus for presidential election -- Al Jazeera

Is Belarus Breaking Away From Its Longtime Ally Russia?

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko.

SCMP/Bloomberg: Putin faces geopolitical headache as US moves in to snatch ally Belarus from Russia

* The Russian leader’s relationship with Alexander Lukashenko is getting worse as the US tries to drive a wedge between Minsk and Moscow
* The Belarusian president has accused critics in Russia of financing protests against him ahead of the August election

For Vladimir Putin’s closest ally, Alexander Lukashenko has been downright unfriendly toward the Kremlin of late. After decades of dependence on Moscow, the Belarusian leader is buying oil from the US, and cosying up politically to the West, while ordering a raid on a Russian-owned bank whose former head is challenging him in the upcoming election.

It’s all giving Putin a headache in his own backyard with Lukashenko practically certain to secure a sixth term as president in August and threatening to loosen the strategically important nation’s ties with Russia.

“The old relationship is gradually falling apart and the suspicion here is that Lukashenko is being encouraged from outside,” said Gleb Pavlovsky, a former Kremlin adviser. While Lukashenko has become a “constant irritant” for Russia, “Belarus is very important and Moscow just can’t afford to lose it,” he said.

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WNU Editor: My advice to the U.S. is to be very wary when dealing with Belarusian strongman  Alexander Lukashenko.

Russia To End Selling Cheap Oil To Belarus

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarussian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko toast to the 20th anniversary of the Union State. Mikhail Klimentyev/TASS

RFE: Belarus To Buy Russian Oil At 'Global Market' Prices

Belarusian First Deputy Prime Minister Dzmitry Krutoy has been quoted as saying Minsk will pay "global market" prices for oil from Russia this year.

"The Russian side has agreed that Belarusian refineries will buy oil through agreements with Russian oil companies at prices that are set on the global market," Reuters quoted Krutoy as saying, according to Belarusian state BelTA news agency, on February 9.

Belarus is heavily reliant on Moscow for cheap oil and billions in annual subsidies to prop up its Soviet-era economy.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka reportedly made little reported progress in talks in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi on February 7 on the increasingly intertwined issues of energy prices and closer integration.

Lukashenka had predicted that meeting would present a "moment of truth."

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WNU Editor: This meeting between Belarusian President Lukashenka And Russian President Putin last week was a disaster .... Belarusian President Lukashenka And Russian President Putin Meet For Tense Talks Over Integration And Oil Supplies (February 7, 2020). Here is an easy prediction. Times are going to be tough economically for many in Belarus.

Belarusian President Lukashenka And Russian President Putin Meet For Tense Talks Over Integration And Oil Supplies

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko take a break during an exhibition match in Sochi, Russia, on Friday. (Reuters)

RFE: Lukashenka, Putin Meet For Tense Talks Over Integration, Oil Supplies

Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has met with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, for talks expected to focus on Belarus's recent overtures to the United States and Russia's increasing economic pressure on Minsk.

A day ahead of their February 7 meeting outside the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Lukashenka complained at a cabinet meeting about Russian supplies of crude oil, an import that for years has played a major role in the Belarusian economy.

Putin's deputy chief of staff Dmitry Kozak said late in the day that oil could be supplied to Belarus only at market prices. But he said a deal had been reached to supply natural gas for this year at the same price as in 2019 -- $127 per 1,000 cubic meters.

Lukashenka and Putin also agreed that talks on integration would continue, according to Kozak.

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More News On Belarusian President Lukashenka And Russian President Putin Meeting For Tense Talks Over Integration And Oil Supplies

Belarus Leader in Russia for ‘Moment of Truth’ With Putin -- The New York Times
Russia, Belarus to continue oil talks after fruitless summit -- Reuters
Putin hosts Belarus leader for further economic talks -- NBC/AP
Breaking the ice! Vladimir Putin enjoys a game of hockey with Belarus's president -- Daily Mail
Vladimir Putin enjoys a drink during hockey match with Belarus' president -- FOX News

Russia Puts The Squeeze On Belarus Over Energy Supplies

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka attend a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in St. Petersburg on December 20.

DW: Russian companies divert oil from Belarus amidst deal impasse

Minsk and Moscow have not been able to secure a deal for 2020 to transport 24 million tons of oil from Russia to Belarus. The pipelines that run through Belarus are key to delivering oil to Europe.

Russian firms began diverting oil from Belarus on Tuesday, as both countries remained unable to agree on a deal for 2020 supply volumes.

Presidents Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko have spoken on the phone twice this week and are set to continue talks to break the impasse, but with a January 1 deadline approaching, it looked as though Moscow and Minsk were heading for yet another pre-New Year oil standoff.

However, the Kremlin downplayed the idea that Russia would unilaterally suspend oil shipments to Belarus, Reuters news agency reported.

"We propose not to discuss such apocalyptic scenarios," Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

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Update #1: Kremlin says no deal yet on oil transit between Russia and Belarus (Reuters)
Update #2: Russia, Belarus Seek Resolution to Spat Over 2020 Oil Supplies (Bloomberg)

WNU Editor: Belarus is dependent on cheap Russian energy supplies and transit fees to Europe. The Kremlin is using that dependency to pressure Belarus to join the Russian Federation. In the meantime the Kremlin is giving a little on natural gas supplies .... Russia Agrees To Short-Term Gas Deal With Belarus Amid Union Push (RFEL).

Will Russia Annex Belarus?

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Sochi, Russia, December 7, 2019. Reuters

Business Insider/Washington Examiner: Western allies are worried Russia could take over a neighbor to keep Putin alive and in power

* Russia's neighbors are worried that Moscow could annex Belarus in an effort to keep President Vladimir Putin in power.
* Such a move would allow Putin to circumvent term limits, and put Russian forces within striking distance of a major NATO weak point.

Western allies fear that Russia will gain sovereignty over Belarus, a former Soviet satellite state that could help preserve Vladimir Putin's grip on power and sharpen Kremlin threats against NATO members.

Russian expansion is on the table because Putin is trying to finalize the implementation of a union treaty that the two countries signed in 1998. Moscow and Minsk interpret the agreement differently, but Putin has begun to apply economic pressure to Belarus while scheduling a flurry of meetings with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko over the last year.

"I think this mild annexation will just happen, probably next year," Alisa Muzergues, a foreign policy analyst at GLOBSEC in the Slovak Republic, told the Washington Examiner. "To be honest, my personal feeling is that it's already a done deal."

Such a maneuver could end Lukashenko's tenure as "the last dictator in Europe," while providing Putin with a political life-preserver. Currently, presidential term limit laws require him to leave the Kremlin in 2024. A union with Belarus would allow him to circumvent those limits and continue to rule the revised Russian state, pending a new election he is expected to win.

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WNU Editor: This talk of a Russian - Belarusian unification has been intensifying for the past year (see below):

Is Russia And Belarus Discussing Unification? (February 14, 2019)
Is Russia Plotting to Take Over Belarus? (April 24, 2019)

I have friends in Minsk who work in the government, and I have also recently noticed a shift in mood among them on the topic of annexation. In the past they were against it, today they are for it. I personally would be surprised if annexation does occur. It is true that three quarters of the country speak Russian at home, but while the language is the same as Russia's, the culture is not. The Belarusians also like their independence, even though joining Russia would bring enormous economic benefits. I also know that the Kremlin wants this to happen. They see many upsides to it beyond the political ones. But in the end it will be Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's decision to make. He is an authoritarian who likes to be President, but he is also getting old, and the Kremlin is putting the economic squeeze on him. A squeeze that is only going to intensify in the next year or two.

Is Russia Plotting to Take Over Belarus?

Moscow Times: Putin's Closest Ally Fears Takeover as Kremlin Plots Succession

President Vladimir Putin may look beyond Russia for a mechanism to keep power after his current term ends. That’s making Moscow’s closest ally nervous amid spiraling tensions over Kremlin threats to slash economic subsidies.

After years of spending billions of dollars to support Belarus’s state-dominated economy, Russia is intensifying pressure on President Alexander Lukashenko to demonstrate his loyalty by accepting deeper integration in return for continued aid. That’s fueling fears in Belarus that Russia’s turning the screw as a prelude to possible absorption of its former Soviet satellite.

Those concerns may not be unfounded, according to three people close to the Kremlin, who said Putin may lay plans to head a unified state with neighboring Belarus to sidestep a constitutional ban on remaining president after 2024.

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WNU Editor: Almost three quarters of Belarus speaks Russian. The rest speak either Belarusian or Polish. But the vast majority of the country see themselves as Belarusian first, and definitely not Russian. I have been to Minsk numerous times. I love the city, and I definitely love the countryside. But will Belarus be incorporated one day in a greater Russia? Hmmmm .... maybe one day, but not today. As to reports that President Putin's cronies are looking for a way to circumvent constitutional restrictions that will permit him to run again .... including using the excuse of taking over Belarus to change the constitution that will permit Putin to run again ..... I have been hearing about these stories since the end of last year. All that I can say is that if such a stunt is pulled off, there will be a lot of powerful and angry people in Russia who will not go along, and they will make their opposition known.

Are Belarus-Russia Relations At The Brink?

Kremlin.ru

Artyom Shraibman, Moscow Times: War of Words Pushes Belarus-Russia Relations to the Brink

Is this the end of the “brotherly trust?"

In just one month, Belarus and Russia have gone from a three-day amicable meeting between their presidents in Sochi to a new flare-up in tensions. The Belarussian Foreign Ministry has accused the Russian ambassador in Minsk, Mikhail Babich, of manufacturing artificial figures in his interviews, and of being unable to distinguish an independent state from a Russian federal district, prompting a similarly outraged response from the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Right from the start of the current dispute between Belarus and Russia, there was no obvious compromise, and this set it apart from previous arguments between the two countries, in which it was always possible to agree on a figure somewhere in between Belarussian requirements and Russian resources for friendship.

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WNU Editor: I for one am still surprised that Belarussian President Lukashenko has remianed in power. He is an authoritarian who does not tolerate dissent, and he is in power only because of his security apparatus, the state bureaucracy, and indifference from the Kremlin. As for Russian - Belarusian ties, they are changing. Belarus has benefited from cheap Russian oil and general trade for years, and the Kremlin has made the decision that this must stopped. What Belarus will do after that is anyone's guess.

Is Next Month's Russian Military Exercises A Pre-Text To Occupy Belarus?

Russian World Forums

CNBC: Large-scale Russian military exercises in Belarus feared to be set-up for Putin's next conquest

* There is alarm that Russian President Vladimir Putin could use the Zapad joint military exercises next month with Belarus as a sort of Trojan horse or pretext for an annexation of the former Soviet republic, which borders Poland.
* Russia claims there's fewer than 13,000 troops going to the quadrennial war games but some reports suggest the actual amount maybe as many as 100,000 people — and one defense expert tells CNBC "everything points to probably the largest military exercise in post-Soviet history."
* An Estonian defense official back in April disclosed his country and other members of NATO obtained intelligence that Russia planned to send troops and resources to Belarus and leave some military equipment and permanent forces.

There are growing concerns large-scale war games planned next month by Russia with its neighbor Belarus could be a cover for something very sinister by Vladimir Putin — perhaps another Crimea.

There is alarm in Europe that the Russian president could use the military exercises as a sort of Trojan horse or pretext for an annexation of Belarus, a former Soviet republic. Putin has had an increasingly acrimonious relationship with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, particularly since Russia annexed the Ukrainian territory of Crimea.

"Russia is billing it as modest exercises under 13,000 troops, but everything points to probably the largest military exercise in post-Soviet history," said Leon Aron, resident scholar and the director of Russian studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank.

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Update #1: Russia readies troops for Zapad war games with Belarus (DW)
Update #2: Russian Invasion? Moscow's Rivals Say War Games Are Cover And Troops Won't Leave (Newsweek)
Update #3: #ZapadWatch: Russian Troops in Belarus (Medium)

WNU Editor: Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko is Europe's last dictator .... Belarus: Europe's last dictatorship (Al Jazeera). It's amusing to see Western leaders worried about his future. And as to the question .... will Russia occupy Belarus after the exercises? As of this moment .... I see no evidence of that happening.

Tensions Grow Between Russia And Belarus

The battles over oil and gas have unexpectedly led to an excessive list of complaints from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Source: Aleksey Nikolskyi/RIA Novosti

FOX News/AP: Russia-Belarus rift grows as Putin loses patience

MINSK, Belarus – In more than two decades in power, the autocratic leader of Belarus has cast his nation as Moscow's closest ally, securing tens of billions of dollars in Russian subsidies.

At the same time, President Alexander Lukashenko has skillfully exploited Russia's security fears by occasionally reaching out to the West to win concessions from Moscow. Now, the Kremlin finally seems to have lost patience with its unruly ally, spelling an end to a relationship that has been described as giving away "oil for kisses."

Read more ....

WNU Editor: In the meantime .... there is a lot of unhappy people in Belarus .... Thousands of Belarussians take to the streets to protest 'parasite law' (Reuters).

More News On Tensions Growing Between Russia And Belarus

Belarusian leader lashes out at Russia -- AP
Amid Tension With Russia, Belarus Signs Deal With Iran -- oilPrice.com
Will Belarus leave Russia to join Europe? -- Yekaterina Sinelschikova, RBTH
How serious is the row between Russia and Belarus? -- Dmitry Polikanov, RBTH
What are the implications of the conflict between Belarus and Russia? -- Artyom Shraibman, Russia Direct
Menacing Russia, cowering Belarus — trouble in the Union Stat -- L. Todd Wood, Washington Times