Is The U.S. Ready To Fight An Indo-Pacific War?

The USS Makin Island and the USS Anchorage sail alongside Indonesian vessels during Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training/Marine Exercise Indonesia 2022 in the Pacific Ocean, Dec. 18, 2022. The exercise promotes regional security cooperation, maintains and strengthens maritime partnerships and enhances maritime interoperability.

Politico: Why the U.S. isn’t ready for a fight in the Indo-Pacific  

Pentagon’s promise to shore up its forces in the Pacific in 2023 is meeting skepticism. 

The U.S. has pledged to deploy so much firepower to the Indo-Pacific in 2023 that China won’t even consider invading Taiwan. 

Lawmakers and allies say it’s already too late. The promise is a big one: “2023 is likely to stand as the most transformative year in U.S. force posture in the region in a generation,” Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, said in early December. 

But GOP lawmakers say the Pentagon faces a stiff challenge in delivering on that pledge. That’s because Beijing now wields a navy large enough — backed by air power and “carrier killer” ballistic missiles — to challenge longtime U.S. naval dominance in the Indo-Pacific. And deliveries to Taiwan of billions of dollars in U.S. arms are backlogged, due to supply chain issues related to the pandemic and exacerbated by the Ukraine conflict.  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: After Nancy Pelosi's trip in the summer to Taiwan, China quickly adopted a plan to begin a massive arms buildup for what they perceived was a major US policy shift on Taiwan. And even though President Biden has assured Chinese President Xi repeatedly that there is no change when it comes to US policy on Taiwan, it appears to be not enough to convince Beijing. 

As this blog and other China watchers have reported in the past few months, President Xi has made it known that he no longer trusts the White House. And even though US President Biden has made it very clear that the US will defend Taiwan if China invades (see video below), the question is .... will it be enough? Are there enough US assets in the region to dissuade China from making such a move. My gut says more has to be done. Much more. 

Senior US Official Says Ready To Protect Asian Allies With A Nuclear Deterrent

(From L) South Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Cho Hyun Dong, Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Takeo Mori and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman pose for photos ahead of talks in Tokyo on Oct. 26, 2022. (Pool photo)(Kyodo)  

VOA: US, South Korea, Japan Vow More Cooperation to Deter North Korea Threat

Seoul, South Korea — The United States, South Korea, and Japan vowed to strengthen cooperation and increase deterrence measures ahead of an expected nuclear test by North Korea. 

The commitment came during a meeting Wednesday in Tokyo between senior leaders from the United States, South Korea, and Japan. 

“We agreed that an unparalleled scale of response would be necessary if North Korea pushes ahead with a seventh nuclear test,” said South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Cho Hyun-dong. 

North Korea this year has launched a record-high number of missiles, including a ballistic missile that flew over Japan earlier this month.  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: I always believed that both Japan and South Korea were/are "unofficially" under the US nuclear umbrella. I guess they want to make it official. 

Senior US Official Says Ready To Protect Asian Allies With A Nuclear Deterrent 

US vows full military defense of allies against North Korea -- AP  

North Korea warned of 'unparalleled' response from US, Japan, South Korea if it launches a 7th nuclear test -- FOX News  

US threatens North Korea with nuclear deterrent to protect the South, Japan -- SCMP 

Japan, U.S., South Korea agree to beef up deterrence against North Korea -- Kyodo News 

US Ready To Protect Asian Allies With Nukes, Biden Official Says In Tokyo -- Zero Heddge

Is President Biden's Pacific Summit Falling Apart?

 

 Politico: Defiance by Marshall Islands and Solomon Islands cast shadow over Biden’s Pacific Summit  

The administration pledges sweeteners to boost U.S-Pacific Island country ties. 

Dissension among participants of the first-ever U.S.-Pacific Island Country Summit opening Wednesday in Washington, D.C., is complicating the Biden administration’s efforts to forge stronger ties with the region. 

Two of the summit’s participants — the Marshall Islands and Solomon Islands — are publicly resisting Biden administration efforts to deepen U.S. influence in the region. 

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: The reason why the Marshall Islands is refusing to sign the White House declaration note is the following .... 

 .... The Marshall Islands on Sept. 23 suspended talks with the U.S. on renewing its strategic partnership, or Compact of Free Association Agreement, to protest the perceived U.S. failure to address the economic, environmental and health legacy of U.S. nuclear weapons testing around the atolls from 1946 to 1958. 

And as for the Solomon Islands ....

.... And the Solomon Islands, which signed a controversial security pact with China earlier this year, is refusing to sign an 11-point summit declaration “designed to provide a framework for intensified U.S. engagement in the Pacific,” the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported Tuesday. “The Solomons have been actively engaged in all the efforts that we’ve been involved with,” a senior administration official said Tuesday, without addressing the Australian report. 

This is an embarrassing situation for the White House. These issues should have been resolved before the summit. 

 More News On The U.S. Led Pacific Summit  

Biden looks to win over Pacific Island leaders at summit -- AP  

U.S. vows 'big dollar' help to Pacific islands in China contest -- Reuters  

Solomon Islands tells Pacific islands it won't sign White House summit declaration -note -- Reuters  

Solomon Islands refusing to sign 11-point declaration at historic Pacific-US meeting -- ABC News Australia  

US Pacific summit faces rocky start as island leaders reject Washington’s offers -- The Guardian

US, Asian Countries Begin Trade Talks To Counter China

 

The Straits Times/Bloomberg: US to Start Economic Talks With 13 Nations to Counter China 

WASHINGTON - The US is set to host the first gathering of Asian nations on an economic agreement envisioned by the White House as a counter to China's rising influence in the region. 

Thirteen countries are expected to send representatives to the two-day kickoff event starting Thursday in Los Angeles for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, or IPEF, which covers about 40 per cent of global gross domestic product. 

It includes the US, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia and Indonesia all members of the Group of 20 (G-20) largest economies, as well as Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: Beijing is responding to this US effort to counter China's growing economic influence in Asia .... Washington weaponizes IPEF even before it takes shape: Global Times editorial. 

US, Asian Countries Begin Trade Talks To Counter China  

U.S., Indo-Pacific countries launch trade talks shunning tariff cuts -- Reuters  

US Launches Asia Economic Forum To Counter China -- Barrons/AFP  

Indo-Pacific ministers talk skills training, not tariffs, at U.S. gathering -- Nikkei Asia 

US, Asian countries begin trade talks with tariff cuts off table -- Al Jazeera  

Building the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, pillar by pillar -- SCMP

U.S. building A Back-Up Base To Guam In The Pacific

An annotated satellite image showing the full scope of planned construction as part of the Tinian Divert Airfield project. USAF  

Warzone/The Drive: Construction Of Airbase On Tinian Island In Case Guam Gets Knocked Out Has Begun 

The alternate airbase facilities now under construction on Tinian would offer an alternative to Andersen Air Force Base if Guam gets attacked. 

Satellite imagery shows major construction at Tinian International Airport that we can say with near certainty is linked directly to plans to expand the facility's ability to act as a divert airfield for the U.S. military in a crisis. More than a decade in the making, the project is intended to provide a vital alternative operating location to the U.S. Air Force's massive Andersen Air Force Base on the island of Guam, just to the southwest of Tinian, should that base be put out of action for any reason. Concerns about Andersen's vulnerability, specifically to a Chinese missile barrage, during the opening stages of potential future conflict in the region have been growing in recent years, something highlighted in The War Zone's previous reporting on this proposed airfield expansion effort. 

Read more ....  

Update: Satellite Imagery Shows Construction Of US Military Facility In Pacific (Zero Hedge/Epoch Times).  

WNU Editor: The US and its allies are also expanding their security ties with other Pacific islands .... US, Japan launch Pacific nation initiative amid China's rise (Mainichi/Kyodo).

Biden Unveils Indo-Pacific Economic Pact To Counter China's Growing Influence

 

Axios: Biden launches new Indo-Pacific trade pact 

President Biden announced Monday that 13 countries were joining a new, U.S.-led Asia-Pacific trade pact designed to counterbalance the influence of China's government in the region while strengthening ties with allies. 

Driving the news: The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) "will enable the United States and our allies to decide on rules of the road that ensure American workers, small businesses, and ranchers can compete in the Indo-Pacific," per a White House statement.  

Read more ....  

Update #1: US Announces 13-Nation Indo-Pacific Economic Pact To Counter China's Influence In The Region (Zero Hedge)  

Update #2: EXPLAINER: What’s in Biden’s proposed new Asia trade pact? (AP)  

WNU Editor: Taiwan will not be included ion this new trade pact .... Taiwan not included in launch of new Biden Indo-Pacific pact (Politico).

Two U.S. Super Carriers, 2 Big Deck Amphibs Drill Together in the Western Pacific

Operations in the #PhilippineSea, Jan. 22, w/ships & aircraft from #USSCarlVinson & #USSAbrahamLincoln Carrier Strike Groups, Carrier Air Wings 9 & 2, #USSAmerica & #USSEssex Amphibious Ready Groups joined by elements from the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force [@jmsdf_pao_eng]. pic.twitter.com/OvOj1QlbbG

— U.S. Navy (@USNavy) January 23, 2022

USNI News: VIDEO: 2 U.S. Carrier Groups, 2 Amphibious Ready Groups Drill with F-35s, Japanese Ships in the Philippine Sea 

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — Two U.S carriers and two amphibious ships, along with their escorts and 26 F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters drilled with a Japanese large deck warship last week in the Philippine Sea. 

The exercises were the largest drills involving aviation-capable ships since the October exercise with the U.S Navy’s Ronald Reagan and Carl Vinson carrier strike groups, the Royal Navy’s Carrier Strike Group 21 (CSG21) and the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) Escort Flotilla 2.  

Read more ....`  

Update #1: US Navy and JMSDF Flat Tops Conduct Epic Power Demonstration (Naval News)  

Update #2: US Navy displays 2 supercarriers in Philippine Sea drill (VIDEO) (RT)  

WNU Editor: Sending a message to China and to reassure America's allies.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken Says US To Expand Military, Economic Ties With Indo-Pacific

 

The Hill: US to expand military, economic ties with Indo-Pacific, Blinken says 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday spoke on how the U.S. will be expanding its military and economic presence in the Indo-Pacific region to advance what he called a shared vision of a "free and open Indo-Pacific."

Blinken gave an address in Jakarta, Indonesia, at Universitas Indonesia. 

In his speech, Blinken laid out five goals the U.S. has for its involvement in the region: advancing a free and open Indo-Pacific; establishing stronger relations with neighboring countries like Australia, Japan and South Korea; promoting prosperity; building resilience; and bolstering security. 

As part of advancing these goals, Blinken directly addressed China's "aggressive actions" in claiming open seas as part of its maritime territory.  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: China has responded to Blinken's remarks .... China responds to Blinken's 'aggressive actions' remarks (AFP). 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken Says US To Expand Military, Economic Ties With Indo-Pacific  

Blinken vows more US military might in Indo-Pacific -- AP  

Blinken touts deeper U.S. engagement amid concern over 'aggressive' China -- Reuters  

Antony Blinken warns China to stop ‘aggressive actions’ in Asia-Pacific -- The Guardian/AFP  

Blinken vows stronger Indo-Pacific ties, slams ‘aggressive’ China -- Al Jazeera  

Blinken Advocates Partnership to Promote Free and Open Indo-Pacific -- VOA  

Blinken urges China to cease 'aggressive actions' in Asia Pacific saying America will defend 'rules-based order' by expanding military and economic relations with Asia partners -- Daily Mail  

Blinken says the Indo-Pacific will shape the trajectory of the 21st century as counterweight to China's aggressive actions -- CNN

Commander Of The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet Wants More Aircraft Carriers In The Pacific To Dissuade China And Russia

The aircraft carriers USS Ronald Reagan, USS Theodore Roosevelt, and USS Nimitz and their strike groups conducting operations in international waters as part of a three-carrier strike-force exercise. US Navy photo by Lt. j.g. James Griffin  

The Hill: US Navy commander calls for more aircraft carriers in Pacific to dissuade China, Russia from conflict 

The commander of the U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet has called for more aircraft carriers in the Pacific to dissuade China and Russia from conflict. 

Vice Adm. Karl Thomas made the comment after the U.S. concluded a 10-day naval exercise with Japan, Australia, Canada and Germany, The Wall Street Journal reported. 

Thomas, when asked about the threat from China and Russia, said it was important to show a united front to “other nations that might be more aggressive and authoritarian,” the newspaper reported.  

Read more ....  

Update: U.S. Commander Calls for More Aircraft Carriers in Pacific to Deter China (WSJ)  

WNU Editor: Aircraft carriers have played a critical role in this year's navy exercises in the Pacific .... Washington caps year of drills to deter China with ten-day military exercise (Reuters).

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken Says U.S. Will Soon Release A New Strategy For The Indo-Pacific Region

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken  

Reuters: Blinken says U.S. soon will release new strategy for Indo-Pacific region 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on Thursday that Washington would soon release a new comprehensive strategy for the wider Indo-Pacific region. 

The Biden administration is hoping to pivot from the crisis in Afghanistan to focus on its main national security priority of countering a rising China. 

Speaking at the start of a meeting with his counterparts in the 10-nation bloc on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, Blinken said the U.S. strategy would emerge "this fall" and "builds on our shared vision for a free, open, interconnected, resilient and secure region."  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: After the debacle in Afghanistan this is the least that the Biden administration can do.

Will The U.S. Establish A Military Base In Central Asia?

Temur Umarov, Moscow Times: Is There a Place for a U.S. Military Base in Central Asia? 

Even if a U.S. military base does eventually open in Central Asia, it won’t change the balance of power on the ground. 

U.S. President Joe Biden has promised there will be no U.S. troops left in Afghanistan by the twentieth anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks this year. 

But Washington is determined to keep supporting the Afghan government in its fight against the Taliban, and this is unlikely to be achievable without the establishment of U.S. military bases in Afghanistan’s neighboring countries. 

The U.S. military command’s preferred option reportedly would be Central Asia.  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: No country in Central Asia is going to permit the establishment of a US base. That bridge was burned a long time ago.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Head To Japan And South Korea For Four Days Of Talks

 

US Department Of Defense: Austin, Blinken Trip All About Partnerships With Asian Allies 

America's network of alliances and partnerships is an asymmetric advantage. Austin and Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken will visit Japan and South Korea. 

"As a country [we] have more alliances than any other country in the world, more partnerships than any other country in the world," Austin said as the jet he was riding in approached Hawaii.

"They give us a lot more capability and so one of the big things the Secretary of State and I want to do, is begin to strengthen those alliances — great alliances, great partnerships to begin with."

Read more .... 

Update: China, North Korea loom as Blinken, Austin head to Asia (AP) 

WNU Editor: After these four days of talks Blinken and Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, will be meeting with Chinese officials in Anchorage, Alaska, on Thursday.

Recently Declassified U.S. Report Lays Out U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy

Axios: Newly declassified report lays out U.S. strategy in Asia 

The Trump administration has declassified a report which lays out its Indo-Pacific strategy, including “accelerating India’s rise,” blocking China from establishing “illiberal spheres of influence,” and maintaining “U.S. strategic primacy” in the region, according to a copy viewed by Axios. 

Why it matters: The strategy laid out in the ten-page report, written in early 2018, has guided the U.S. approach to China, India, North Korea and other nations in the Indo-Pacific region for the past three years. Its release sheds light on the geopolitical and security challenges soon to be inherited by the Biden administration. 

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: No surprises in this new report. But still an interesting read.

U.S., Australia, India, Japan Foreign Ministers Meet In Tokyo To Discuss China’s Growing Power

 

News 18: Pompeo Meets 'Quad' Partners India, Australia & Japan Today to Seek United Front Against China 

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will hold talks on Tuesday with counterparts from Australia, India and Japan in Tokyo, seeking to present a united front against China. 

Pompeo's trip comes despite the coronavirus crisis gripping Washington, which has seen President Donald Trump and a raft of his closest staff and advisors test positive for Covid-19. 

Given the crisis, Pompeo opted to scrap two additional stops, in South Korea and Mongolia, that were originally part of his Asia trip. 

But the meeting of the so-called Quad remains on his agenda, with Pompeo telling reporters before he departed the US that it was a "something we've been working on for a long time to put together." 

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: China is watching this very closely .... Can the 'Quad' be transformed into an Asian NATO? (CGTN). 

 More News On The ?"Quad" Meeting In Tokyo 

U.S., Australia, India, Japan ministers meet to discuss China’s growing power -- Global News/AP Pompeo Seeks to Show United Front on China -- Bloomberg 

Pompeo in Japan to boost solidarity with Asian allies to counter China -- CNA 

Quad is built on wobbly foundations -- Asia Times 

What Tokyo ministerial holds for the future of Quad -- Asia Times 

Why is the Quad meeting such a big deal? -- India Today 

What you need to know about the “Quad,” in charts -- Brookings

Nations In The Pacific Want US Bases

Note: Squares denote countries/states with full- or part-time U.S. military presence, not locations or bases or installations. Sources: U.S. Defense Dept.’s Defense Manpower Data Center; The Heritage Foundation’s 2019 Index of U.S. Military Strength; U.S. Indo-Pacific Command

Wall Street Journal: U.S. Military Is Offered New Bases in the Pacific

Palau invites Pentagon presence at unspecified joint-use facilities, marking an advance of U.S. efforts to pressure China

PALAU—The Republic of Palau has asked the Pentagon to build ports, bases and airfields on the island nation, officials said, offering a boost to U.S. military expansion plans in Asia, as Washington aims to counter China.

The request came during a visit here last week by Defense Secretary Mark Esper, the first-ever trip by a U.S. Pentagon chief to the tiny republic, which is made up of hundreds of islands in the Philippine Sea and is closely aligned diplomatically with Taiwan.

Mr. Esper traveled to Palau as part of a U.S. effort to realign its military footprint in the region, adhering to the 2018 National Defense Strategy, which calls for enhanced steps to meet security challenges posed by China.

Beijing has moved to lay claim to islands in the South China Sea, a major global trade route. China also has increased jet-fighter flights near Taiwan, fought a border skirmish with India and passed a national-security law to limit Hong Kong’s autonomy.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Many Asian countries are not comfortable with what the Chinese are doing.

The U.S. Is Learning On How To Respond To Chinese Actions In The South China Sea

SOUTH CHINA SEA - The Independence-variant littoral combat ship USS Gabrielle Giffords (LCS 10) conducts routine operations near the Panamanian flagged drill ship, West Capella. Gabrielle Giffords, part of Destroyer Squadron Seven, is on a rotational deployment, operating in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations to enhance interoperability with partners and serve as a ready-response force. Photo By: MC2 Brenton Poyser

Blake Herzinger, War On The Rocks: Learning in the South China Sea: The U.S. Response to the West Capella Standoff

Malaysian oil exploration in a contested area of the South China Sea sparked a “five-nation face off” in April, with Malaysian, Vietnamese, Chinese, U.S., and Australian maritime forces sailing within relatively close proximity. When the responding U.S. Navy Expeditionary Strike Group departed after spending only a few days in the area, some observers panned the U.S. response as uninvited, insufficient, and having emboldened China. The passage of a few weeks has shown these accusations to be premature, but also highlighted a recurring weakness in the U.S. approach to maritime security in the Indo-Pacific. While the U.S. strike group may have departed, U.S. forces sortied from both forward deployed locations and the U.S. homeland to maintain a persistent presence over the South China Sea with platforms ranging from small surface combatants to strategic bombers. China’s presence has remained largely static. Overall, the United States shows progress in its approach but also an inexplicable missed opportunity to reach out to its Southeast Asian partners.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The above is a good review on how the U.S. is responding to China's actions in the South China Sea. Sending in these subs into the region is certainly upping the U.S. response .... Navy Sends Subs to Sea as Message to China (Military.com/The Honolulu Star-Advertiser).

White House Decision To Skip The 18-Nation East Asia Summit Has Asia Questioning U.S. Strategy

Bloomberg: No Trump or Pence in Bangkok Has Asia Questioning U.S. Strategy

The Trump administration in recent years has stepped up efforts to contain China’s rise, warning Asia’s leaders against taking its cash and using its equipment for 5G networks. But when it comes to the region’s biggest summit, the U.S. is happy to let Beijing take center stage.

President Donald Trump plans to skip the 18-nation East Asia Summit for the third straight year, and this time he’s not even sending Vice President Mike Pence or Secretary of State Michael Pompeo to replace him. Instead the U.S. will have its lowest level representation at the meeting since Barack Obama formally joined the group in 2011, with new national security adviser Robert O’Brien leading the delegation to Bangkok.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: It looks like U.S. foreign policy is taking a back seat to impeachment and the run-up to the 2020 elections.

US Marines ‘Remind China Of America’s Military Edge’

US Marines practise speed reloads on August 9 aboard the USS Green Bay, part of the Wasp Amphibious Ready Group, in the Indo-Pacific region. Photo: Handout

SCMP: US Marines ‘remind China of America’s military edge’ with Asia-Pacific drills

* Operations aimed to caution Beijing that US forces can carry out amphibious campaigns far from home
* Washington has power to intervene directly in territorial disputes between its allies and China

US Marines have conducted airfield- and island-seizure drills in the East and South China seas in what observers say is meant to remind Beijing of US military supremacy in the Asia-Pacific.

The 11-day naval drills were conducted near the Philippines and around the Japanese island of Okinawa by Okinawa-based US marine expeditionary units, the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit said.

Observers said the operations were meant as a warning to Beijing that the US military could carry out amphibious campaigns far from home if Washington needed to intervene in territorial disputes between China and America’s allies in the region.

Read more ....

Update #1: Here's what it looks like when US Marines put their biggest guns to the test (Business Insider/We Are the Mighty)
Update #2: Marines "Remind China Of America's Military Edge" During 11-Day Exercise In The Pacific (Zero Hedge)

WNU Editor: This massive drill was long overdue.