Presidnt's Medvedev (Russia) and President ObamaThe security blogosphere is buzzing with talk of the Obama administration's decision to scrap planned missile defense architecture in Eastern Europe. The majority of commentators have been content to play the role of cheerleader, offering no substantial analysis of the reasoning behind this decision or the diplomatic consequences of its implementation. As I read the debates raging across the internet concerning this decision it quickly became apparent that an outline of the "whys" of this decision is sorely needed. This post is an attempt to provide such a resource.
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My Comment: An excellent summary on the history, impact, and direction of missile defense in Europe. If I have a difference of opinion with this post, it is the assumption that U.S. and Russian relations are going to improve from the decisions that President Obama has now done on missile defense.
I do not see this, and my input comes from reading the Russian press and from what my relatives and friends are saying in Russia. U.S. dismissal of its agreements with Poland and the Czech Republic are now being used by Russia in its political battles with American allies like the Ukraine, Georgia, and to a lesser extent the Baltics. The assertion that they are making (and making it very effectively) is that America cannot be trusted with its agreements, and that they will break them if it is convenient to them.
What is bothersome to me is that there is also now an element of contempt in both the Russian press, and what minor Russian officials are now saying about President Obama and his administration. I know that there is an element of racism in their remarks (Russians are very xenophobic to outsiders, an altitude that only Russians can understand), but this contempt mainly comes from a perception that President Obama is weak and can be easily manipulated.
In reference to Afghanistan, U.S. transport planes are transversing Russian territory not because Russia wants to help the U.S., they are doing it because it is in their strategic interest to do so. If it was not .... they would have said no a long time ago. Missile defense never had an impact on making this decision, the growth of Islamic militancy and its impact on regions like the Caucasus and Central Asia is what concerns them for the simple reason that Russian and Soviet history is filled with examples of war and conflict in suppressing this Islamic militancy.
U.S. - Russia relations will continue because there is a shared interest to pursue them. But on issues like Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, energy supplies to Eastern Europe, Georgia and the Caucasus, Africa from the Sudan to Zimbabwe, Russian influence and desire to help the U.S. will be lacking at best, foot dragging at worse.
