Commentaries, Opinions, And Editorials -- September 28, 2012

A damaged vehicle is seen at Suleiman al-Halabi neighborhood after clashes between Free Syrian Army fighters and regime forces in Aleppo, Thursday, Sept. 27. George Ourfalian/Reuters

Intervention Won't Save Syria -- Gary C. Gambill, National Journal

The death toll in Syria has reached a threshold where outside parties are entitled to use force to protect the civilian population. But those who would intervene in ostensible pursuit of this noble objective have an obligation to ensure that, on balance, the patient benefits from the procedure. Whereas former president Bill Clinton can claim with some justification that "the burning of villages and killing of innocents was history" after NATO's 1999 intervention in Kosovo, achieving a positive balance sheet in Syria will be extraordinarily difficult.

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Commentaries, Opinions, And Editorials

Destroying Syria -- The Daily Star editorial

Prisoners of Bashar -- Michael Young, NOW Lebanon

Apocalyptic Talk Aside, Israel Has Dialed Down Its Threat to Bomb Iran — for Now -- Tony Karon

Providing a legal basis to attack Iran -- Jeffrey H. Smith and John B. Bellinger III, Washington Post

Japan and China’s 118-Year-Old Cage Fight -- James Gibney, Bloomberg

China's Comunist Party Congress: Q & A -- Malcolm Moore, The Telegraph

The U.S. And Morocco: What a Real Alliance Looks Like -- Michael J. Totten, World Affairs

Election in Georgia A Battle between Dictators and Dreamers -- Walter Mayr, Spiegel Online

The Troubles are over. So why is Northern Ireland still so unsettled? -- Jason Walsh, Christian Science Monitor

Latin America’s Tale of Two Crises -- Jorge G. Castañeda, Project Syndicate

The Hugo Chávez cult is over -- Francisco Toro, The Guardian

Kerry, Rice position themselves on Benghazi attack -- Josh Rogin, the cable/Foreign Policy

The President’s Speech -- Walter Russell Mead, The American Interest

World News Briefs -- September 28, 2012

China Announces Plans For Party Congress And Prosecution Of Bo Xilai -- Time

A long season of unexpected events is capped off with two clearly synchronized announcements — and the catastrophic fall of one of the Chinese Communist Party's brightest stars is dramatically assured

Bo Xilai, the ambitious Chinese official whose rise was upended by his wife’s murder of an English businessman, has been kicked out of the Communist Party and will face prosecution on multiple criminal counts, the official Xinhua News Agency said Friday. The government mouthpiece also said the 18th Communist Party Congress, which will begin a once-in-a-decade transition of China‘s top leadership, is scheduled to begin Nov. 8. The twin announcements, both significant developments in stories that had roiled China for much of the past year, came just as the country was preparing for a long holiday to mark its Oct. 1 National Day, which will likely limit domestic discussion of the events.

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MIDDLE EAST

Obama, Netanyahu seek to reduce tensions over Iran.

Rebels struggle to advance in Aleppo.

Syria refugees to reach 700,000 by year's end - UNHCR.

Russia says Iranian nuclear deadlock risks military strike.

Iran to 'retaliate' if attacked by Israel.

Israelis see no Iran war this year after Netanyahu's speech.

Israel seeks ‘red lines’ on Iran; Palestinians want UN upgrade.

Iraq militants attack Tikrit prison, freeing 90 inmates. Al Qaeda convicts flee in Iraq jailbreak.

ASIA

Osaka Mayor’s radical message has broad appeal in a weary Japan. Japan ruling party lags badly in poll as election nears.

China's dorm room discontent emerges as new labor flashpoint.

Cambodia wrestles with justice for ex-members of Khmer Rouge.
Nepal plane crash kills 19.

China seals Bo's fate ahead of November 8 leadership congress.

China's buildup raises arms race fears.

Japan and China trade barbs over islands at UN.

South Korea: Japan must educate its people about WWII .

Japan's industrial output slips as demand remains subdued.

Dalai Lama: Hope for new China approach to Tibet.

AFRICA

Nigeria suspends Hajj flights over women deportation.

Kenyan military drives al-Qaeda’s Shabab militia out of Somali port. Kenyan forces surround Somali rebel bastion.

US Africa command chief in Mauritania to discuss military intervention.

China offers support to Mali military in fight against Islamists.

Sudan and South Sudan sign accord, but several issues are unresolved.

HRW seeks justice for Guinea massacre victims.

EUROPE

Russian activists stand firm against Putin.

Russian official snubs meeting of "Russophobic" Europe lawmakers.

Eurozone inflation in surprise rise in September.

France taxes rich and business to slash deficit.

Greece's 2013 budget to deepens cuts, sustain recession.

Italian unions strike against Monti, close Colosseum.

Steinbrueck surprise shakes up German election race.

Tension with Russia re-emerges as campaign issue in Georgia.

Russia 'consecrates' North Pole to reassert ownership.

AMERICAS

Argentina, Iran say to talk until 1990s bombings resolved.

Some former allies ditch Chavez in Venezuela vote.

Peru's coca cultivation increases again, says UN study.

Ammunition for a trade war between U.S. and Mexico.

Mexico captures Zetas drug lord Ivan Velazquez Caballero.

‘El Taliban’ is gone, but his rival Mexican drug lord is worse.

TERRORISM/THE LONG WAR

EXCLUSIVE: Senior al Qaeda figure 'living in Libyan capital'.

Obama administration removes Iranian opposition group MEK from the US terrorism list.

'Last Gasp' of the Taliban?

Election to decide future interrogation methods in terrorism cases.

Intercepts show attackers on U.S. consulate in Benghazi bragged to Al Qaeda.

ECONOMY/FINANCE/BUSINESS

Apple chief Tim Cook apologises over iPhone Maps app.

BofA to pay $2.43 billion in Merrill settlement.

BlackBerry maker RIM's problems are far from over.

Hackers, possibly from Middle East, block U.S. banks' websites.

US Secretary Of Defense Panetta: I’ll Take ‘Whatever The Hell’ I Can Get From Sequestration

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta and Canadian Defense Minister Peter MacKay hold a joint press conference at the Pentagon, Sept. 28, 2012. DOD photo by Glenn Fawcett

Leon Panetta: I’ll Take ‘Whatever The Hell’ I Can Get -- Politico

Leon Panetta is at the end of his rope with Congress.

“I’ll take whatever the hell deal they can make right now to deal with sequestration,” an obviously frustrated defense secretary told reporters at the Pentagon Thursday.

His assertion — nearly an outright plea — represented a slight change of tune for Panetta, who until recently had been pushing for a longer-term deficit-reduction deal.

Along with President Barack Obama, he has advocated “a balanced approach,” meaning a deal to stave off what he has called devastating cuts in defense spending with a mix of increased revenues and entitlement reforms, in addition to further spending cuts.

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More News On US Secretary Of Defense Panetta's Comments On Sequestration

Panetta Will Take 'Whatever The Hell Deal' Congress Can Make On Sequestration -- Aol Defense
Panetta’s Idea for Congress to Avoid Sequestration: ‘Whatever the Hell Deal’ -- Executive Gov
Sequestration question gets Panetta worked up -- Stars and Stripes
Panetta: We cannot maintain a strong defense if sequester is allowed to happen -- Examiner
Panetta softens sequestration stance -- The E-Ring/Foreign Policy
Panetta irate over sequestration -- Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post

My Comment: Time has a 5 part series on the impact of sequestration on the military. That link is here. Interestingly .... the Pentagon's number two man is telling his staff to not plan for budget cuts. Does he know something that we do not know .... or is this an insane policy from the Pentagon/s #2 man .... I guess we are going to find out in the next few months.

China And Japan Spar Over Disputed islands At The U.N.

China Minister Tells UN Japan 'Stole' Disputed Islands -- Voice of America

China's foreign minister says Japan's recent purchase of disputed islands in the East China Sea is "illegal and invalid" and that the move does not affect Beijing's historical claim to the rocky archipelago.

In a speech late Thursday to the United Nations General Assembly, Yang Jiechi said the Japanese purchase "grossly violated" Chinese sovereignty. Yang said it cannot change the "historical fact that Japan stole" the islands from China.

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More News On The Chinese - Japanese Dispute Over Islands

China and Japan spar over islands at UN assembly -- Hindustan Times/AFP
China takes aim at Japan over island dispute at UN -- CBS/AP
China's U.N. ambassador rebuts remarks by Japanese representative on Diaoyu Islands -- Xinhuanet
China Alters Its Strategy in Diplomatic Crisis With Japan -- New York Times
China official says spat with Japan derails free trade talks -- Reuters
Japan's Noda Addresses Island Spats at UN -- Wall Street Journal
Japanese prime minister: No compromise on territorial dispute with China over islands -- Washington Post/AP
Japan: No Compromise on Island Dispute -- Voice of America
US says it will not mediate in islands dispute, urges China-Japan diplomacy to calm tensions -- Washington Post/AP
China-Japan spat may ignite, expert warns -- Sydney Morning Herald
Everything You’ve Always Wanted to Know About Those Islands But Were Afraid to Ask -- Wall Street Journal

A Sign Of Where Egypt Under Moirsi Is Heading

The Muslim Brotherhood's president-elect Mohamed Morsi speaks during his first televised address to the nation at the Egyptian Television headquarters in Cairo June 24, 2012. Reuters

Muslim Brotherhood President Frees Monster in Brutal Luxor Massacre -- Front Page

President Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Monster-in-Charge of Egypt, has announced the pardon of Mostafa Hamza, a leader of The Islamic Group.

Al-Jamaa Al-Islamiya leader Mostafa Hamza, detained for terrorist activity and attempt on Hosni Mubarak’s life, released Tuesday by President Morsi’s pardon. Hamza, a leading member of Islamic organisation Al-Jamaa Al-Islamiya, was extradited to Egypt from Iran in 2004. He was detained following terrorism-related charges that included being a member of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.


Forget Mubarak, Hamza was responsible for a lot of atrocities, but his ugliest hour may have been the Luxor Massacre.

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My Comment: Not surprisingly .... the Egyptian press is ignoring the Luxor massacre that Mostafa Hamzaordered ordered, but focusing on the attempt that they made on Mubarak's life. Any bets that if the U.S. extradites this man to Egypt, that he would also be released right away?


Update: This is a story that should be on the front page of every newspaper .... but with the exception of a few Middle Eastern and European outlets ... not even a whimper from the US main stream media.

Kenyan And Somali Forces Launch A Midnight Amphibious Assault To Capture al-Shabab's Last Stronghold

Kenya Says It Has Captured Last Islamist Bastion In Somalia -- New York Times

NAIROBI, Kenya — Kenyan forces claimed on Friday to have captured Kismayu, the last major stronghold of the Shabab militant group in Somalia, which, if confirmed, could spell an end to the Shabab’s ability to control large tracts of territory and mark the beginning of an underground, and possibly just as dangerous, guerrilla phase. Kenyan officials said their troops had staged a daring, midnight amphibious assault to storm the beaches of Kismayu, a vital port for the Shabab, with Somali allies in the boats alongside them.

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More News On The Conflict In Somalia

Kenyan forces attack last remaining stronghold of al-Qaida-linked militants in Somalia -- Washington Post/AP
Kenya Attacks Last Stronghold of Somali Militants -- Wall Street Journal
D-Day for al-Qaida in Somalia? Troops storm beaches at last stronghold -- NBC
Kismayo Falls To Amphibious Assault -- Strategy Page
Kenya troops fight on beaches in assault on Somali rebel city -- Reuters
African Forces Enter Somali City Held by al-Qaeda Militants -- Bloomberg Businessweek
Somali militants hold Kismayo under Kenyan force attack -- BBC
Troops lay siege to Somali rebel stronghold -- Al Jazeera
Somalia overpowering al-Shabaab but old rivalries pose new threat -- The Guardian
Somalia, allies batter al Shabaab, but gains may be fragile -- Reuters
When Al Shabab's last stronghold falls, will a guerrilla war follow? -- Mike Pflanz, Christian Science Monitor

How The U.S. Military Thinks Israel Might Strike Iran

Photo - iStockphoto/Thinkstock

The Entebbe Option -- Mark Perry, Foreign Policy

How the U.S. military thinks Israel might strike Iran.

While no one in the Barack Obama administration knows whether Israel will strike Iran's nuclear program, America's war planners are preparing for a wide array of potential Israeli military options -- while also trying to limit the chances of the United States being drawn into a potentially bloody conflict in the Persian Gulf.

"U.S.-Israeli intelligence sharing on Iran has been extraordinary and unprecedented," a senior Pentagon war planner told me. "But when it comes to actually attacking Iran, what Israel won't tell us is what they plan to do, or how they plan to do it. It's their most closely guarded secret." Israel's refusal to share its plans has persisted despite repeated requests from Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, a senior Pentagon civilian said.

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My Comment: I guess it is not surprising that Israel is not sharing this information with the U.S.. As to what is Iran's response to all of this speculation .... no one will survive.

5,000 Deaths Forecast For September In Syria's Civil War

Syria: Over 5,000 Deaths Forecast For September -- The Telegraph

The death toll from fighting in Syria's civil war has escalated sharply, as expectations grow that a foreign military intervention would be necessary to try and contain the bloodshed.

Activist groups that track death tolls said that more than 5,000 people were forecast to die this month alone, substantially above the 4,000 that died in August. By contrast, the worst month in the Iraq conflict - after the initial invasion - accounted for 3,028 lives, in July 2006.

The United Nations refugee agency meanwhile predicted that up to 700,000 Syrian refugees could flee abroad by the end of the year, nearly quadrupling its previous forecast.

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My Comment: What's my take .... these numbers are understated. According to the rebels, the battle for Aleppo has begun, and with cold nights now becoming the norm in Syria as winter approaches, poor health and disease will probably end up killing hundreds per day.

For a perspective on this war .... in the Iraq conflict the highest casualty toll was 3,028 in July, 2006 .... in Syria's civil war .... I expect numbers approaching 10,000 by the end of this year.

U.S. Intelligence Intercepts Reveal A Link Between Al Qaeda And The Attackers Of The U.S. Consulate In Benghazi

Intercepts Show Attackers on U.S. Consulate in Benghazi Bragged to Al Qaeda -- Eli Lake, Daily Beast

Conversations monitored by U.S. intelligence show Ansar al-Sharia jihadists boasted to Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb about the attack that killed Ambassador Chris Stevens and others—more evidence the assault was not a spontaneous reaction to the anti-Muslim video.

In the hours following the 9/11 anniversary attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, U.S. intelligence agencies monitored communications from jihadists affiliated with the group that led the attack and members of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the group’s North African affiliate.

In the communications, members of Ansar al-Sharia (AAS) bragged about their successful attack against the American consulate and the U.S. ambassador, according to three U.S. intelligence officials who spoke to The Daily Beast anonymously because they were not authorized to talk to the press.

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My Comment: Eli Lake has another exclusive on the Benghazi US consulate attack. It looks like someone(s) in the inside is feeding him information, and continuing to put to shame the narrative that the White House has been promoting since the murder of US Ambassador Christopher Stevens. If I was an adviser to the White House, I would tell them the jig is up and to have President Obama to come clean on this tragedy. But .... I know that they will not .... because they cannot with a few weeks left before the election.

Politics .... regardless of who is in power .... it's always all about politics.

What's Kabul's Future?

 

Kabul - A City of Hope And Fear -- Al Jazeera 

With the US set to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan in 2014, what does the future hold for the country's capital? Taking a stroll through the parks and bazaars of Kabul, Afghanistan's capital, after many years covering the war in the south and the east of the country, could have been both terrifying and liberating. I was conscious that there was certainly a very real threat from suicide bombers and the “spectacular” attacks that garner international headlines, but in reality I found that after following US troops patrolling IED (improvised explosive device) infested orchards in Kandahar or climbing mountains swarming with Taliban fighters in Nuristan and Kunar, Kabul actually felt like a different, much safer world. For the moment at least.

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My Comment:  A sobering look at Kabul. I have no reason to be optimistic that they will be spared from the war once US and NATO forces leave.