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Daily Mail: Top coronavirus model predicts 100,000 Americans dead by the end of this summer's first wave - as death toll passes Trump's best case scenario of 60,000 dead
* The MOBS model from the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University predicts that 100,000 Americans will have died from COVID-19 by the end of summer
* It also estimates that there will be about 89,000 deaths by mid-May if stay-at-home orders remain in place
* That death toll would increase to over one million in an unmitigated scenario, according to the projections that are among those used by the CDC to forecast the pandemic
* As of Wednesday, the US death toll is now at 61,000 and there are more than one million infections
* Trump, in recent weeks, had suggested that 60,000 might be the total death count from COVID-19
A top coronavirus model is predicting that 100,000 Americans will have died from COVID-19 by the end of the summer - as the US death toll surpasses President Donald Trump's best case scenario of 60,000 deaths.
The MOBS model from the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University also estimates that there will be about 89,000 deaths by mid-May if stay-at-home orders remain in place.
That death toll would increase to over one million in an unmitigated scenario, according to the projections that are among those used by the CDC to forecast the pandemic.
The director of the institute responsible for the MOBS model, Alessandro Vespignani, is estimating that 100,000 will die by the end of the 'first wave' at the end of summer.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: The twitter stream below is a must read. The author examines how many more people than usual have been dying around the world in recent weeks? Answer. Far more than what is being reported.
NEW: a lot of data on reported Covid deaths is highly suspect, so we’ve been looking into excess mortality — how many more people than usual have been dying around the world in recent weeks?— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) April 26, 2020
Story by me, @ChrisGiles_ & @valentinaromei (free to read): https://t.co/EiE5Q3OSmR pic.twitter.com/AiTdBnBma9
4 comments:
That's what Doomers do. They doomsay.
Also starting to notice some media/pol buzzwords that need decoding.
"Science". Translation: Politics
"Testing". Translation: Delay
"Keep you safe". Translation: Tyranny
"New Normal". Translation: Standard of Living Reduction
"We Have No Choice". Translation: More Tyranny
/Its an evolving list.
100,000 swS?
WITH 3 MILLION IN IMMIGRATION WOULD WE NOTICE?
Would politicians care? Immigrants (newbies) might be more pliable than natives
Russ,
I've noticed the same thing, especially with regards to testing. More people are beginning to catch on.
I'm skeptical of these calculations. Nations especially tyrannical ones have strong incentive to overstate deaths from this thing but generally not to the point that they'd humiliate themselves. It's great cover to make undesirables disappear and it can work well to scare people to justify government power grabs.
It's worked quite well in America unfortunately. Multiple sources including my contacts in the medical field have pointed out that extreme pressure has been and is being applied to classify deaths as COVID-19. Easy prediction: US deaths from this are WAY overstated.
Additional points to consider: viruses typically don't do well in hot weather such as summer. This is why flu and colds typically have a "season." So far it's assumed this isn't a bio weapon so it'd be assumed this thing would behave like other viruses. The typical "profile" for this virus is elderly people who are in otherwise poor health. Essentially had those people not died from COVID-19 there's a high degree of probability that many of these people would've died from something else within a year's time. This causes the virus to appear more deadly than it actually is as it just substitutes one cause of death for another that would have happened very soon anyway had this virus not happened to come along.
Since viruses typically don't do as well in hot summer weather it would be unreasonable to expect that the rate of infections would not taper off in the summer months. I'd expect this to start happening in about a week or so. With the cases already active it might reach 100k reported US deaths by the end of summer. This is "reported" deaths as the numbers are already wildly overstated and I see no evidence that the purveyors of this have any interest in ceasing with their deception anytime soon.
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