No offensive is imminent, but officials worry that a large-scale attack that threatens Russia’s hold on the peninsula could push Putin to use nuclear weapons.
A Biden administration official recently told members of Congress that Ukraine has the military capability to retake Crimea, but some officials are concerned any large-scale offensive that threatens Russia’s hold on the peninsula could push Vladimir Putin to use nuclear weapons, say two U.S. officials familiar with the matter.
The late November Ukraine briefing to some members of Congress included discussion of the reasons Ukraine will continue to need U.S. weapons and equipment for the foreseeable future. The two officials said a Biden official, when asked during the briefing about continued support for the Ukrainian military and whether it would try to retake Crimea, responded that Ukraine now has the ability to take it back.
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WNU Editor: The US foreign policy establishment has been pushing this idea and narrative for the past few months .... Go Slow on Crimea (Eurasia Press/Foreign Affairs). These people clearly have never visited Crimea. Nor understand its history and demographic composition.
For one. 90% of the population view themselves as Russians, have always viewed themselves as Russians, and have no interest to join Ukraine where their culture, language, and now even the Russian Orthodox church would be banned.
Two. The overwhelming opinion in Russia itself is that Crimea is a part of Russia. Just like Americans believe California and Texas belongs to the US and not Mexico. Russia would react the same way that the US respond if they felt their territorial integrity was at risk. Let us just say that it will be brutal.
Three. If Crimea is facing an existential threat, it would be due to NATO's involvement. Russia would respond with a formal declaration of war against Ukraine, and the mass mobilization of the entire country.
Four. Russia will not use nuclear weapons on territory that is inhabited by Russians. Nuclear weapons will be targeted at NATO. Specifically the U.S. And the U.K..
Update: This is not stopping some on speculating how this could be done .... Could Ukraine Retake Crimea? Not Easily (Defense One).
Biden Administration Tells Congress That Ukraine Can Retake Crimea
Biden official tells Congress Ukraine could take back Crimea: report -- The Hill
Ukraine has military brawn to retake Crimea, Biden official tells Congress -- Washington Examiner
US Believes Ukraine Can Retake Crimea, But May Provoke Nuclear Escalation -- Antiwar.com
Ukraine planned to ‘retake’ Crimea in 2023 – former commander -- RT
24 comments:
Idiotic statements all the way. shows the low quality of personnel running the USA under Biden. Mediocracy all the way.
Biden gang is trying to get us killed. Probably deliberately. To save the planet or something.
Ukraine can take Crimea back from Russia? Right, and boys can be girls and girls can be boys, hacking apart small children's genitals is gender affirming care, true communism has never been tried, inflation is Trumps fault and not the democrats years long overreaction to a slightly different version of the flu, getting the vaccine will prevent you from getting COVID, small children and new borns should get the vaccine because they are at risk just like a 65 year old with diabetes and 120lbs overweight, George Floyd is a martyr and a saint and shouldnt have died the way he did, Derek Chauvin is not a political prisoner and him and his knee were 100% at fault for the death of a piece of shit who should have been aborted, ANTIFA/BLM is just an idea but the proud boys and oath keepers are domestic terrorists, we are not in a recession, the southern border is in fact secure and Kamala has definitely been there and is working on it diligently, the mainstream media is a reliable source for information and is the key to freedom of speech in America unlike fox news, Tucker carlson is a white supremacist and a domestic Terrorist, Q-Anon is a wild conspiracy but ignore its main point with the Ghislaine maxwell trial and the massive list of democrat politicians, celebrities and swamp lizard people who repeatedly went to esptein island for decades, That list of disgusting sub humans doesnt exist or isnt worth investigating further, no social media like Twitter and youtube is not shadow banning conservatives, drag queen story hour is good for your kids, buttplugs and dildos arent being handed out to small children in public schools, no books are in libraries k-12 detailing how to give a blowjob and when to use spit or lube during anal sex but republicans are trying to ban those books and thats a problem!, And 2020 was the most free and fair election in history but Trump Russia Collusion, pee tapes and mean sweets mark the end of American democracy.
I believe Crimea is Russian. Kruschev should not have made his deal in the 1950s. I have said that for months. Russia confirmed Kruschev's deal in 1001 through 1994 by treaty, which a law BTW if you did not know WNU.
Although that treaty is law, I regard it like the treaties that Russia and others forced China to sigh over a hundred years ago. It was signed under duress and is an Unequal Treaty. Now the duress was not an Ukrainian Army on the border with Russia, but there was substantial duress. Everything was in turmoil. The economy was bad and 15 countries/peoples were breaking away.
The UN did jack squat. A plebiscite should have been held under UN auspices.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea#Demographics
Maybe the US should have done something. The US was tied up in the Gulf War, election season and George HW Bush had Graves disease. How the autoimmune disease of the thyroid affected his energy level or decision making is open to speculation.
As an aside people talk of One world government. A steppingstone to that eventuality would be to merge Russia, Belarus and Ukraine as one nation. BUT NOT BY FORCE!
The US got California and Texas as the result of a Mexican Civil War. Texas broke away form Mexico the same time as two other regions. the Mexican "authorities" reconquered 2 of the break away regions, but not Texas. the Mexican government signed a peace treat recognizing Texas. The Border was in dispute. The Us inherited that dispute and Mexico lost a Second War. It is not the same as Ukraine and Russia
That said I would like Mexico and the Us to merge. I think it would be great for both economies. But for it to happen it is my belief that two plebiscites should be conducted first.
Yeah, there is that FUCKING WORD PLEBISCITE!. It is a word that is not in Putin's vocabulary.
One reason I would not want a merge is that Mexico is so freaking corrupt. that is no longer an issue. America is on par with Mexican corruption. Thank you Democrat party and Deep State.
Point is about merging with Mexico WNU is yo pour cold water on your "But California and Texas argument" from a second angle.
I believe Crimea is Russian. The Ukrainians will take it and that will be good. We can hold a plebiscite after Putin steps down or is forced out. I would prefer at that point to send him to Elba or Ascension. Preferably that latter. The Ascension I have in mind would be in the Marquesas under guard in a nice house by the beach.
I am okay with a nuclear war or throwing Putin up against a concrete wall too.
Hold a plebiscite and those Russians in Crimea might choose Ukrainian citizenship. Yes, Putin is that bad.
"Nor understand its history and demographic composition. "
Russian were never a majority in Crimea until the Crimean Tartars were deported.
Russian were not the majority in Crimea until after World War 2 and the deportations. However, they were the plurality and that counts for something.
However, the demographic trend does suggest they would have had a slim majority in the 1950s with or without deportations.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea#Demographics
Mathew..always a fresh bucket of cold water to refocus ones thoughts.
Not disagreeing with you.
12:33
You are correct on most of this but..
Reality is a monster. Great powers do what they are going to do in order to protect their interests.
Great power actions have not changed operations since the beginning of time
So what was of immediate great interest to the Russians and the Americans???... Sevastopol.
Home of the Russian Black Sea fleet.
Russians were not going to give that up.
Western neocons had to know this. But they went with the Ukrainian coup anyway.
So put yourself in Mr Putins place. Are you going to sit by while your version of NewPort News or Diego Garcia falls into your opponent's hands?
Of course you are not.
So in my mind , this was all orchestrated.
Each side knew what the others reaction was going to be and the West pulled the trigger and started it anyway.
Looks like the WNU Author is spewing the same nonsense he spewed concerning Ukraine's Russian population preceding the war. Look how that turned out. Maybe Putin reads this blog and that's where he got all his intel from, from the 'wisdoms' of the author who speaks on behalf of all Russians, it seems.
"Three. If Crimea is facing an existential threat, it would be due to NATO's involvement. Russia would respond with a formal declaration of war against Ukraine, and the mass mobilization of the entire country. "
That is a doozy. The kitchen sink has already been thrown. Russia has one kitchen sink left.
North Korea and Iran as suppliers will not cut it. China has to supply Russia with needed war material to make up for idle factory production due to men being called up.
Russia has enough artillery ammo for a year. Normally much of that ammo would be past shelf life. It is not just estimates of ammo one can look at. Artillery fire has decreased by 2/3rds from 60,000 to 20,000. Also if Ukraine has barrel well problems, then they are 3 to 10 times worse for Russia. How many short rounds will we get due to barrel wear and aged ammo?
Russia telling the world that Crimea is off limits to attack is like a punk kid telling you in a tag game that 95% of the area is base for them and 5% of the area is base for you. that worked during the Cold War somewhat. It won't work now.
Hypothetically speaking, if I were the Russian team, I would threaten nuclear war. I would also hold to a line of a plebiscite must be taken.
Joining Russia for Donetsk and Luhansk would be a hard sell at this point, but it could be done. Instead of Oblast they could hold referendums village by village and town by town. It was done in Austria and Hungary. Not with the best results, because the allies had their thumb on the scales, but somewhat better than other ways.
1:21
Sevastopol was rented out to Russia by Ukraine. The Russians had use of it before 2014. So they already had it. So why attack?
A soft power approach to Crimea would have worked better in the long term IMO. the problem with a slower soft power approach is that a leader might not get the spiffy epitaph that he wants.
Putin has made the same exact mistake Hitler did after Hitler got Sudetenland. Not a good look.
Also IMO China is hanging Russia out to dry. Both Russia and China have dirt on Biden and others. Russia might not have enough, but china certainly does. china could destabilize American politics, which could knock the US out of the war at least for a time. Long enough to get Ukraine.
China demurs. It is getting what it wants, but not helping Russia in that particular way. If Russia fails, well China will pick up the pieces.
Interesting analysis,
Is there any truth then to the information that the Ukie government was planning to rent Sevastopol out to the west? I understand they had contracts pending on that issue.
On a nothe thought....
You are Mr. Putin. You know that the new Gov in Kiev is an oppositional one. Are you going to take a chance and trust them to fulfill their contractual obligations?
Considering the whole situation and who backed them, I would not trust those guys.
I would have done the same exact thing.. From a Nation Security perspective, It still boggles the mind why the Russians did not invade the whole country after the coup of 2014.
1:34,
You spend a lot of time here. Where is your lifes work for everyone to enjoy and give their opinion on? Do you have anything to offer aside from your very fine froth bubbles, you salty little bitch? You sound like a democrat who heard something he didnt like. Mindless outbursts and passionate feel feels; such a good boi. WNU has an opinion and can be wrong, and he admits his fallibility the vast majority of the time he ends up being wrong. His blog is still an outstanding source for a decent breadth of information exposure, and his specialty in Russia, China, a variety of international institutions, etc gives his page a very particular niche that is useful to those who are capable of evaluating an opinion/article beyond a single factor analysis. Go watch CNN, the most trusted name in news, on your little glowing square and take a seat...you super informed galaxy brain superstar. Dont like it here? Build your own. Fag.
Matthew.
1:34 is Skoda. An interesting chap who has lots of time to talk to us. He must be retired, I think.
His is an intelligent individual, but seems to have a propensity towards illogical statements and juvenile name calling.
Just ignore him unless he attacks you or your argument in an insulting manner. Or, as in most cases, he says something totally outlandish that must be addressed. A common occurrence, I might add!
If he does, as noted above, you are authorized to rip him apart, as that is fully justified. It is not hard to do. Because although he is smart, he is unfortunately disabled in his mental capacity for clarity of thought.
Use caution because he will try to not take responsibility for his statements and he has a tendency toward argumentative fallacy. Ensure you hold him to the main topic of conversation and have him defend his premise.
Good luck and glad to have you as part of the ongoing skoda support group. Together we just may succeed in making this individual a fully functional human.
What a salacious exposition dripping with insincerity.
"Is there any truth then to the information that the Ukie government was planning to rent Sevastopol out to the west?"
Either you know or you are throwing up mud to see, if it will stick.
Some questions:
a) Could the US afford it?
b) Would they send more than a few frigates?
Let's face it. For a boomer sub the Black Sea is a pond. It is a fucking death trap. Nor would you put a carrier there. the Black sea may be approximately the size of the Barents Sea, but it is ringed with potentially hostile aircraft. Not a good place for a boomer.
What use would it be? Would it be more use than having combat aircraft and transport aircraft in case the Russia decided to mess with the Georgians again?
Russia is losing. They pulled troops from the Caucasus region. They do not have troops to spare. So all those jihadis will come out of their caves and recruit more heavily and start to cause trouble. First for the Russians and then for the rest of us.
12:01 PM
no doctor working on the virus ever said getting the vaccine would prevent you from getting covid. Since you have that all wrong, no one needs to read anything else
matthew
do you have a comment other than dumping on people? sure sign of your classlessness
Idiotic statements all the way. shows the low quality of personnel running the USA under Biden. Mediocracy all the way.
that is why Biden won such a huge popular vote and Trump got trounced?
4:33
A. Could USA afford it? Of course. Print more money and/or use current DoD funds
B. Send a tug boat. Does not matter. Key point is deny the Russians a key port on the Black sea,
Concur. You would have to be suicidal to put ships in that area.
Is Russia going to "lose"?. Only time will tell and if they do, it is because they fell into the stupid slav trap. It is thier war to lose, not the ukies to win
One more thing The part about contracting..It was in a report. Maybe it is true maybe b.s. IDK
433. That was funny as hell. And the Black sea. It is a Turk Russian lake. US is losing control of turkey. Maybe they wanted to hamstring the Russians close to home. 4th generation warfare..It would make sense
"It is a Turk Russian lake."
Romania?
Bulgaria?
Georgia?
Moldova?
The former US Turkish alliance not existing does meant that Russia and Turkey becomes buds. Turkey has its own Islamacist agenda under Erdogan. But Erdogan might not get re-elected. People are angry over his treatment of a popular mayor.
You are right.
but do any of them have any real military power? Not much , the turks and Russians are the real powers there.
If you are right about the Turks and Russians being aligned, that is not good news for the USA. If I was the US, I would start thinking about one or all of the nations you mentioned to arm with anti ship missiles , small craft and AAA. Maybe they are doing that already. IDK
LOL - Good one.
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