Putin addresses the Federal Assembly on Feb. 21. Sergei Savostyanov / TASS
Tatiana Stanovaya, Moscow Times: A Fight for Survival: What Victory Looks Like to Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state of the nation address on Feb. 21 was eagerly anticipated inside Russia, yet it shed no light on the question that is foremost on the minds of the Russian elite and public: how Putin intends to win this war.
The address had been postponed from last year, prompting speculation that Putin didn’t know what to say amid the lack of victories at the front. It’s more likely, however, that he was just too immersed in his unsuccessful military campaign to find the time. In the end, the address was a mixture of what Putin considered it necessary to say (the geopolitical part about the “crazy” West), and what he is required to say under the constitution (an update on Russia’s socioeconomic situation).
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WNU Editor: Just as Ukraine President Zelensky has framed the war as a fight for the existence of Ukraine as a nation state, Russian President Putin has done the same thing in Russia.... Russia issues warning about future of Ukraine conflict (RT).
Bottom line. This is a war that is going to be decided on the battlefield, and the end of it will occur when the losing side agrees to the terms of the other.
So what does victory look like to Putin? IMHO It has changed since the start of the war last year.
From what I am hearing, Putin's current version of victory is the fracturing of Ukraine where some (if not all) of the Russian speaking portions of Ukraine join the Russian Federation. The parts of the country that are dominated by Ukrainian speakers will permitted to exist as Ukraine. A commitment by Ukraine to never enter NATO or any other defense bloc without Moscow's approval. And the demilitarization of its military.
Will this happen? I do not know. It all comes down to what will the West do. But I do know that the Kremlin is preparing for a long war that may last for years. To put it into context. The second Chechen war fought with Putin as the Russian President lasted 9 years. The war in eastern Ukraine has been ongoing since 2014. My nightmare scenario sees the Ukraine war grinding on for 3 to 5 years.
8 comments:
A "real" victory probably also includes a Russian solution to the Transnistrian question.
That's the problem with outsiders trying to define what a Russian victory looks like when they haven't provided one themselves. There are 100 "stretch goals" you can dream up that solve one or another of the perceived longterm thorns in Russia's side, but we have no idea if they are even attempting to reach them.
Russian speaking is not synonymous with ethnic Russian
Putin, WNU and other need to get it through their thick skulls
WNU hilariously claimed, pre-Russian invasion, that the likes of Kherson and other parts of Ukraine bordering Russia would quickly crumble as a result of the Russian speaking people there.
No such thing has happened. He continues to live in a land perpetrated by his own delusions and any 'word' he receives from a cousin of his, is multitude by a factor of x50.
Bad example. Kherson was one of the regions that Russian forces did just walk into and shake hands with the local leadership. You must be thinking of the northern operations around Kiev.
Your mayor of Kherson or some other city. Tanks come rolling into the town square. Everywhere the Russians are advancing. Of course you are going to meet with the Orc general.
Russians are retreating.
Of course you are going to meet with the dumb slav ukie general, who being a slav, thinks that slavic Russians are orcs, when the Russians are slavs too.
In essence all slavs are orcs. sheer genius.
russians arent slavs their bastard children of steppe nomads
1051.
That is crap. They are slavs. The problem with slavs is that many of them are pretty stupid, so they are easily fooled. That is why they are now killing each other in large numbers.
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