Is A War With Iran This October's Surprise?

Added the Isfahan incident today, July 19, to the #Iran fires/explosions map pic.twitter.com/sLfMkQyWsu

— Seth Frantzman (@sfrantzman) July 19, 2020

Jonah Shepp, NYMag: Could War With Iran Be an October Surprise?

Over the past few weeks, a series of suspicious fires and explosions have occurred at Iranian civilian and military facilities, including the country’s main missile-production and nuclear complexes. While a few of these incidents might have been accidental, the timing and specific targets suggest that at least some were the result of sabotage by Israel, and the provocations raise the possibility of a spiraling conflict in the Middle East just in time to become an issue in the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

Via anonymous leaks to major media outlets, Israeli intelligence sources have more or less copped to the country’s involvement in some of the incidents. After an explosion at the Natanz nuclear-fuel-enrichment complex in early July, which may have set back Iran’s progress toward a nuclear warhead by months or years, a “Middle Eastern intelligence official with knowledge of the episode” told the New York Times that Israel was behind the attack. Right-wing Israeli politician Avigdor Lieberman implicitly accused Mossad chief Yossi Cohen of being the Times’ source, suggesting that the leak was part of Cohen’s campaign to succeed legally embattled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as head of the Likud Party.

If Cohen is leaking, though, he’s not the only one. A former Israeli defense official told Insider that it was common knowledge in Israeli intelligence circles that some of these events were Israeli intelligence operations. “I don’t know which ones exactly and wouldn’t tell you anyway because the entire point is for the Iranians to feel considerable stress trying to decide what might have been our work,” they said. A European Union intelligence official echoed that understanding, calling it part of a campaign of “maximum pressure, minimal strategy” to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The world's focus is on the pandemic. Not starting a war in the Middle East.

How Secure Are Iran's Leaders?

Iran's religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks to Iranian Air Force officers and personnel in Tehran [Iran's Religious Leader Press Office/Handout]

Sina Toossi, Foreign Affairs: Iran’s Hard-Liners Are Sitting Pretty

Maximum Pressure and Pandemic Pressure Have Consolidated Their Power.

Now is a time of soul-sickening worry for many Iranians, but perhaps not for the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The leader’s insouciance may seem perplexing, with Iran reeling from the novel coronavirus, U.S. sanctions, the assassination of Major General Qasem Soleimani, and the specter of war with the world’s leading superpower. But Khamenei and his worldview are on the ascent in both domestic and foreign policy.

The coronavirus crisis has had tragic consequences in Iran, with the number of registered infections skyrocketing to 73,303 as of April 13 and the number of deaths hitting 4,585. And it has simultaneously brought to the fore divergent approaches to governance in the Islamic Republic.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Iran's theocracy has been in power for 40 years, and I do not see them losing power in my lifetime. In the current crisis they will do what all authoritarian governments facing a crisis will do, consolidate their power and eliminate their opponents. They can do this because their control of the country's security apparatus has not changed, nor has their core support among their supporters in Iran. Where the influence and power of Iran's hardliners has changed is outside their borders. I am old enough to remember when they had tremendous power on influencing the price of oil and global supplies. No more now. They are now like everyone else, running around the world begging countries and customers to buy their oil, and at cut-rate prices. Iran's hardliners are also having trouble in suppressing anti-Iranian sentiment in satellite countries like Iraq, and even more so in Sunni-dominated countries, Syria included. My prediction. Their influence will continue to decline as their main revenue stream .... oil sales .... continue to decline. Iran's hard-liners may want to be the Middle East's regional power, and by being the regional power ensure their status in Iran. But that is not going to happen.

Is Iran’s 'Worst Nightmare' Coming True?

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meets with people of Qom, in Teheran, Iran, January 9, 2019. Official Khamenei website/Handout via REUTERS

PJ Media: Iran’s 'Worst Nightmare' Coming True: Middle Eastern Shiites Rise Up Against It

The regime in Tehran is in lots of trouble these days. As U.S. sanctions tighten, at least a quarter of Iran’s oil rigs are now out of action, “dealing a potentially long-term blow to its oil industry.” The coronavirus “has now spread to every province in the country and people are fearful that the true scale of the outbreak is even worse than is being disclosed.”

And if those and other severe pressures aren’t enough, Shiites in countries that Shiite Iran seeks to dominate are now telling Iran to go home and get off their backs.

That’s the story told by Hanin Ghaddar, a Lebanese expat and an analyst for the Washington Institute for Near East policy:

In Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, and inside Iran itself—the countries that fall along the Shia Crescent—the people have realized that the enemy is within. It’s their own governments that have allowed the Iranian regime to take over the state and its institutions…. The Shia Crescent…is finally turning against the Iranian regime and its proxies.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: In the current situation Iran is not the only country facing a nightmare in the Middle East. The collapsed of oil prices is impacting every nation in the region, the wars and conflicts continue, and the Covid-19 Coronavirus knows no boundaries.

The Iran Regime Is Not Going To Change

Handout / Reuters

Suzanne Maloney, The Atlantic: Iran’s Leaders Have a Problem They Can’t Fix

The downing of a plane showed citizens what’s wrong with the Iranian government, but the regime has no plans to change.

When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei led prayers at Tehran’s Grand Mosque for the first time in eight years on Friday, Iran’s supreme leader described the downing of Ukrainian Airlines Fight 752 by his military as a “bitter accident”—one that enemies abroad were exploiting as an excuse to discredit the Islamic Republic. But the real threat to the regime, which has spent decades trying to cement its rule, is the discontent of the Iranian public. Both the plane crash on January 8 and the cover-up that followed struck at the heart of the grievances that shape Iranians’ anger toward and alienation from their government. And if the demise of Flight 752 revealed the government’s malign disregard for its own citizens, its relentless suppression of the subsequent protests has only underscored its imperviousness to any meaningful accountability.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Here is an easy prediction. Life for the ordinary Iranian is going to get worse.

Is The Iranian Regime Fragile?

Iranians shop in the Tajrish Bazaar in Tehran in November 2019. Photo: Atta Kenare / AFP

David Goldman, Asia Times: How fragile is Iran’s regime?

US sanctions are creating extreme economic conditions; birthrate dropping precipitously

Smartphone videos of anti-regime protests in Tehran circulated in global news media this weekend, after the Iranian government admitted it shot down a Ukrainian civilian airliner. The latest demonstrations followed a national wave of protests last November in which up to 1,500 demonstrators were killed. Hard information about the origins and extent of the anti-regime protests is difficult to find. But there is a good deal of evidence of extreme dissatisfaction with the regime due to economic stress.

Iran’s average monthly after-tax wage was US$318.53, according to the website Numbeo, which tallies thousands of user inputs to arrive at wage and price data.

Using Numbeo’s prices I constructed a monthly survival budget in US dollar equivalents:

Read more ....

WNU Editor: A sobering read on how difficult life is in today's Iran.

What Are Iranians Outside Of Iran Saying About The Death Of Soleimani

Iranian President Rouhani and Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander Qasem Soleimani. Iran Project

Dan Truitt, American Thinker: Ask an Iranian

I saw my Iranian refugee friend Kaveh in church this morning and asked him what he thought of the killing of Qasem Soleimani.

“I’m a little unhappy with it,” he said. “My wife’s unhappy, too. So are our parents in Teheran.”

“Why””

“Because he didn’t suffer.”

“You’re a Christian, right?”

“Right.”

“Trust me, brother, he’s suffering,” I said.

I’m an ex-pat living next door to the Middle East, and I don’t think most Americans understand what a significant historic event this is. Most Iranians are completely fed up with the oppressive reign of the mullahs, and most Middle East countries are completely fed up with the organized terrorism being exported by Iran, which has been destabilizing the region for the last four decades.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Montreal has a large Iranian community and I am lucky to know one of them as a good friend. To say that he was overjoyed when he heard that Soleimani was killed in a drone strike is an understatement.

Will Iran's Military Buildup Bankrupt The Country?

Reuters

Michael Peck, National Interest: Will Iran Become the Next Soviet Union (As In Bankrupted by Massive Military Spending)?

While Iran’s rulers have no aspirations to be a superpower, they do seem to covet being a regional hegemon as the Persian Empire was. So far, Iran has waged war on the cheap by using proxies rather than massive troop commitments as the U.S. did in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. But as Hezbollah has discovered when its Iranian subsidies were slashed, even war on the cheap can be expensive.

Iran’s military is switching from unconventional warfare to more conventional weapons.

That means more ballistic missiles to hit its enemies, as well as mines and other naval weapons to close the Persian Gulf to oil tankers, according to a new report on Iranian military power by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s pet spy service.

But the question is whether Tehran can afford to develop these capabilities.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Arms buildups are never cheap. Iran is going to learn that lesson very quickly.

Who Would Lead Iran If The Supreme Leader Is Deposed?

AY-COLLECTION/SIPA/Sipa USA

Sohrab Ahmari, NYPost: Here’s who’s likely to lead Iran if the ayatollah is deposed

The measure of a successful Iranian dynasty has always been simple: For 2 ¹/₂ millennia, Iranians have judged their kings good if the kings managed to keep good order. Siyasat, the Persian word for politics, originally meant simply this.

By that yardstick, the current clerical “dynasty” has failed miserably.

Witness the latest wave of popular unrest engulfing the Islamic Republic. What began Friday as a protest against fuel-subsidy cuts ignited into a full-blown uprising. Cries of “Death to dictator!” rang out from the streets, as did slogans decrying the Islamist regime’s foreign interventions (“Not Gaza, not Lebanon, my life only for Iran!”). Gas stations were burned, and video footage from the provinces suggested some local authorities had lost control.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: There is only one person in Iran that has a lot of public support and who would be accepted by the mullahs in Iran, and that is Quds Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani.

Is War The Only Option For Iran To Break The U.S. Sanctions Spiral?

Iranian protesters block a road during a demonstration against an increase in gasoline prices in the central city of Shiraz on on 16 November (AFP)

Shahir Shahidsaless, Middle East Eye: Iran petrol protests: Why war could be the only way out of US sanctions spiral

The dollar's dominance of world trade has made sanctions against Iran all the more lethal, leading to economic pain and a huge budget deficit

An abrupt decision by the Iranian authorities to hike petrol prices as part of efforts to confront the effects of crippling US sanctions sparked demonstrations in cities and towns across the country. According to Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), “the degree of destructions was more extensive than during the 2017-2018 protests.”

At least 12 people have been killed - so far - and, according to Fars News Agency, 100 banks have been set on fire and more than 1000 protestors arrested. In the last three days, the country’s internet shutdown has disconnected Iran from the rest of the world.

The crackdown has been harsh. The country’s economic downturn threatens not just the administration but the establishment as a whole. Now, the question becomes: which direction will Iran take?

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Iran's government is facing a massive shortfall in its budget (a loss of almost a half due to collapsing oil revenues) due to U.S. sanctions. In response, they have raised taxes and eliminated subsidies without appreciating the response that they would face from the public. They do now, and I also do not think they have any idea on where to go from here. Hence the war speculation being circulated by pundits who closely observe Iran.

Report: Iran's Network Of Influence In The Middle East Is 'Growing'

Study says no state has been as effective as Iran in regional conflicts during the past decade [Reuters]

BBC: Iran's network of influence in Mid-East 'growing'

Iran is winning the strategic struggle for influence in the Middle East against its rival, Saudi Arabia, according to a study by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Iran's regional rivals have spent billions of dollars on Western weaponry, much of it from the UK.

Yet for a fraction of that cost, sanctions-bound Iran has been able to successfully embed itself across the region into a position of strategic advantage.

It has a major influence - verging on a controlling influence in some cases - over the affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.

Read more ....

Update: New report reveals extent of Iran's growing Middle East influence (Al Jazeera)

WNU Editor: The report is here .... "Iran's Networks of Influence in the Middle East (IISS).

Is The Iranian Military A Joke?

Reuters

National Interest: Iran's Military Is a Total Joke

Here is something you may have missed amidst the incessant chatter about a possible military confrontation in the Persian Gulf: Iran is far less powerful and scary than the innuendo in Washington, D.C. would have you believe.

Here is something you may have missed amidst the incessant chatter about a possible military confrontation in the Persian Gulf: Iran is far less powerful and scary than the innuendo in Washington, D.C. would have you believe.

This will likely come as a surprise to many Americans, many of whom are saturated with self-professed “experts” on cable news, the editorial pages, and the think tank circuit waxing ad-nauseam about how the Islamic Republic of Iran represents a danger to the world. Listening to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, you would be forgiven for believing that the Iranians are a few short years away from sweeping the entire Middle East like Alexander the Great rampaged through the Asian continent.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Maybe Iran's army, navy, and the Air Force are not up to Western standards, but the Revolutionary Guards have proven to be very capable fighters, and they will not be easily defeated.

Is Iran Over-Extended In Syria, Yemen, And Iraq? (A StrategyTalk Podcast Discusses The Situation.)

Was Iran's Seizure Of A British Oil Tanker A Strategic Mistake?

Sam Kiley, CNN: Iran's gamble on a tanker seizure will end its credit -- even among friends

Steadily increasing its bets in an international game of bluff, Iran has gone almost all in with a gamble that its hard liners must believe is worth the punt -- but which will certainly end their credit lines even among friends.

In seizing a foreign tanker which it accuses of "violating international regulations," Tehran has resorted to a form of piracy in international waters.

At a time when Iran might have begun to win friends and influence people in the world's corridors of power, it's showing that it really could be the force of dangerous instability that its most ardent enemies have claimed.

Iran has legitimate frustrations over the American withdrawal from the nuclear deal that was supposed to swap limiting its nuclear program for an end to economic sanctions.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I am sure this seizure of a British oil tanker is playing well in Iran. But will this seizure help Iran in eliminating sanctions and gain allies in the world .... IMHO definitely not. It also puts two key European supporters of the Iranian nuclear deal in a difficult position. Germany and France have worked hard to help Iran circumvent US sanctions, but any help will be impossible now with this seizure. For the moment both countries are condemning this move .... Germany and France condemn Iran's seizure of British tanker (DW), but for all practical purposes any EU movement to assist Iran is now "dead in the water". It also puts China and Russia in a bind, especially China who have made pursuing an alternative new world order and respect of international law that is independent of the West. Supporting a country's action of piracy is not what China wants to do, and I predict that they will stay neutral. As for Russia .... they are going to stay away from this conflict as much as possible, and will watch from the sidelines.

An Analysis On The Current State Of Affairs In Iran

Rouhani addresses a rally on May 6. Source: Iran Presidential Palace

Amin Saikal, Task & Purpose: The Strengths And Weaknesses That Will Shape Iran's Future

Despite being resilient, the Islamic Republic has been fraught with vital weaknesses, contradictions, and vulnerabilities on both domestic and foreign policy fronts.

The two-tiered system of governance has not worked as well as its founder, Ayatollah Khomeini, had intended, giving rise to serious political bifurcation and factionalism, power and personal rivalries, patronage building, bureaucratic and administrative malfunctioning, and systematic corruption. The Islamic system has fostered unpredictable, ad hoc, and uneven processes of social and economic change, electoral irregularities, and state repression. It has, finally, caused a growing gulf between the ruling elites and the public, corresponding to a state-society dichotomy that has alienated many citizens, especially among the post-revolution generation, from the regime, its conservative clerical strands in particular. Although these outcomes have been accentuated since Khomeini's death, they have their foundations in the way that he structured and operationalized the Islamic Republic.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: A good overview on the current state of affairs in Iran.

Iran's Mullahs Are Their Own Worst Enemies

Aaron Kliegman, Washington Free Beacon: The Mullahs Are Their Own Worst Enemies

Last January, six days after anti-government protests erupted across Iran, the European Union's high representative for foreign affairs equated Iranian protesters with the regime forces arresting and killing them. "In the spirit of frankness and respect that is at the basis of our relationship," said Federica Mogherini, "we expect all concerned to refrain from violence and the right of expression to be guaranteed." Mogherini's statement was a slap in the face to the Iranian people, who were demonstrating against the regime that oppresses them so brutally.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The EU and its leaders like German Chancellor Merkel have been trying their best in the past year to do everything in their power to subvert U.S. sanctions against Iran and to support the nuclear deal .... Merkel: Germany Remains Committed To Iran Nuclear Deal (RFE). And while they were doing this Iran's intelligence agency was assassinating Iranian dissidents on European soil while plotting more attacks .... Iran behind two assassinations in Netherlands – minister (The Guardian). More here .... EU sanctions Iran over thwarted attacks on European soil (DW). So that is why you know it is bad when the EU (who are always slow to respond) move quickly to sanction you .... EU sanctions Iran over assassination plots (France 24). More here .... European Union sanctions more Iranians (Euronews).

The Significance Of This Weekend's Terror Attack In Iran

Reuters: Significance of attack on military parade in Iran

A deadly assault on an Iranian Revolutionary Guards parade dealt a stunning blow to Iran’s security establishment, which has often said it can repel any threat no matter how big, even from the United States and its chief Middle East ally Israel.

Saturday’s shooting attack, among the worst ever on the Guards, illustrated that Iran’s elite force, which answers directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, can be vulnerable to guerrilla-style operations.

Iran had enjoyed relative stability compared to Arab neighbors who have grappled with political and economic upheaval touched off by popular uprisings in 2011.

The Guards have vowed to retaliate for the attack.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: A day after the attack Iran began blaming everyone .... Iran's Revolutionary Guards threaten to avenge military parade attack (Reuters). While outside of Iran speculation is on who may have conducted this terror strike .... Iran: Who was responsible for the deadly attack in Ahvaz? (Ted Regencia, Al Jazeera). As to what is my take. Iran is a multi ethnic country ruled by the most dominant group the Persians, and their rule has been resisted for decades. What is making the situation more unstable right now is Iran's economy, and the failure of its economic policies. In the past the opposition has resorted to demonstrations and civil disobedience, but this attack now raises it to another level. This may now become the new normal, and one that Iran is ill-equipped to confront.

What Do People On The Streets Of Iran Think Of The U.S.?

Men read newspapers and magazines in Tehran, Iran October 14, 2017. Nazanin Tabatabaee Yazdi/TIMA via REUTERS

Peter Van Buren, Reuters: I just visited Iran. Here’s what I heard about the U.S.

Iran is a dangerous place these days, at least in a car. Traffic in the cities here moves like Tetris, with drivers pushing their cars into any open space that will fit. Trips begin in chaos and play out in confusion. How it ends is always up to God’s will, everyone says.

I went to Iran this month to attend a conference on the Palestinians, Jerusalem, and the greater Middle East sponsored by an Iran-based nongovernment organization. On the sidelines of the meeting, I met with students at Mashhad University, Ferdowsi University, and at a woman’s educational institute, as well as with visiting scholars from Tehran.

Just before my trip the United States withdrew from the nuclear accord, and while I was in the northeastern city of Mashhad, officially moved the embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. These events were tracked in Iran as closely as World Cup scores, though absent celebration.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: So a Reuter's correspondent goes to Iran to find out what are the people's opinions on the street when it comes to the U.S.. And the response on the street is no surprise .... universal criticisms of the U.S. and its policies. I have lost count over the years on how many times I have seen and heard this "dog and pony show" from correspondents all over the world and in multiple places. Is this an accurate assessment on what people on the street actually think? I doubt it. But what I do know .... and I have traveled and seen enough of the world to know that it is true .... is that if given a chance to immigrate and start a new life in America .... almost everyone of these "critics on he street" will grab that opportunity without a moments hesitation.

How Fragile Is The Iranian Regime?

Brave protesters overcoming fears and standing up to regime's security forces.

Richard C. Baffa, The Hill: Regime appears fragile as Iranians turn much of their ire inward

Mounting economic hardship is fueling persistent unrest in Iran, now characterized by labor strikes across the country and anti-regime sentiment. New sanctions stemming from President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal may well exacerbate already difficult economic conditions.

Now may be the right time to exert maximum pressure on the regime in an effort to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table.

Last December and January, demonstrations flared across Iran. It began in Mashhad over rising prices and the overall poor state of the economy, but quickly spread across the country with demonstrators increasingly focusing their wrath on the clerical regime.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The religious authorities that rule Iran and the Revolutionary Guards who provide the military muscle to protect the regime are not going to give up power anytime soon. But it is true that in the past year a wave of major strikes have hit Iran. And the weakening of the economy .... because of corruption, poor policies, a horrible banking system, and now sanctions .... can only further weaken the legitimacy of the regime. University students protesting is something that the Iranian government can handle .... but when your core supporters n critical industries are striking because they cannot make ends meet .... that becomes a different story. This reminds me of the first strikes that hit the Soviet Union in the mid 1980s. They first started in the Donbas region among the coal miners (yes .... where the Ukraine war is now being fought), and the Kremlin's response was to send in KGB thugs .... but they failed. After that .... strikes started to spread and a few years later the Soviet Union disbanded. I can easily see the same thing happening in Iran. Not a disintegration of the country, but reforms that would lessen the power and influence of the clergy .... and this will happen with or without sanctions. Unfortunately for the Iranian people .... this will also take time.

Why The Protests In Iran Will Not Change Its Foreign Policy

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani delivers remarks at a news conference during the United Nations General Assembly in New York City, U.S. September 20, 2017. REUTERS/Stephanie Keith

Ariane M. Tabatabai, Foreign Affairs: Why the Protests Won't Change Iran's Foreign Policy

State Sponsorship of Terrorism Will Continue.

On December 28, 2017, protests broke out in Mashhad, a city in northeastern Iran. By the time the rest of the world was celebrating the advent of a new year, major demonstrations had spread to cities and towns across the country. By January 2, over 20 people had been killed amid the unrest. As Iranian officials scrambled to respond to the largest demonstrations since the 2009 Green Movement—a wave of protests over the fraudulent reelection of hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the presidency—U.S. President Donald Trump took to Twitter to express his own thoughts on what was taking place.

According to Trump, the Iranian people are sick of the regime’s sponsorship of terrorism, which chips away at their wealth. As the president put it, “Many reports of peaceful protests by Iranian citizens fed up with regime’s corruption & its squandering of the nation’s wealth to fund terrorism abroad. Iranian govt should respect their people’s rights, including right to express themselves. The world is watching!” This talking point has since dominated U.S. officials’ and lawmakers’ remarks on the developments in Iran. As White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders put it, Trump would “certainly like to see [Iran] stop being a state sponsor of terror. I think that’s something the whole world would like to see.”

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Maybe it will change .... In jab at rivals, Rouhani says Iran protests about more than economy (Reuters).

A Former Soviet Dissident's Take On The Unrest In Iran

Ronald Reagan with Natan Sharansky. Wikipedia

Eli Lake, Bloomberg: What a Soviet Dissident Sees in Iran's Unrest

A reminder of what happened when the West supported the Soviet regime rather than the Soviet resistance.

French President Emmanuel Macron is deeply concerned. His government has expressed tempered support for the demonstrations in Iran, but for now he is more worried about the reaction of America, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

This week he warned that the full-throated endorsement for the unrest in Iran by these governments "is almost one that would lead us to war." It reminds him of the "axis of evil."

Macron, ever the keen student, believes the consensus of most regional experts, who say that the leaderless protests in Iran are likely to fail. What's more, any full-throated expressions of solidarity will probably endanger the precious nuclear deal his government helped negotiate in 2015. Best to call on both sides to refrain from violence and continue the post-2015 policy of integrating Iran into the community of nations.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The similarities on how Western governments are responding to the unrest in Iran to how Western governments responded to the dissident movement in the former Soviet Union are striking. What Natan Sharansky is saying in the above post is what I have also been saying on this blog for years .... when people rise against a brutal regime they should not be told by the leaders in the West to tone down their protests, what they should be told is that we support you, and that we wish you success. That moral support means a lot .... and for those who support the regime (or who are in the regime), a message that always makes me shudder and uncomfortable to hear. I should know .... I lived it.