As an amateur historian buff ..... and doing the necessary research for this blog ..... I have made it a study to understand how political and economic trends can influence and produce future conflicts and wars. In particular, how if the right ingredients are in place a small conflict can quickly evolve into a major one.A commentary piece from the Investor's Daily investigates how Lebanon can quickly evolve into a major regional conflict. Like the beginning of the Second World War, Winston Churchill had no problem seeing the signs of the impending conflict long before most people did. There are many Churchills today who have the same perception of political trends and events ..... especially in regards to the Middle East.
When asked by President Franklin Roosevelt about what World War II should be called, Winston Churchill suggested it be labeled "The Unnecessary War." "There never was a war more easy to stop than that which has just wrecked what was left of the world from the previous struggle," he wrote in "The Gathering Storm."
Well, we may be about to see another one and, as in World War II, the enemy — in this case, Iran — is telling us exactly what it intends to do: wipe Israel off the map. As Hitler rebuilt the Wehrmacht, flaunting the Treaty of Versailles, Ahmadinejad builds his nukes and the missiles to carry them, in the face of ineffective sanctions. And Hezbollah wants Lebanon.
The latest warning in the current gathering storm comes from Sheik Yazeeb Khader, a Hamas political activist and editor based in Ramallah in the West Bank. He told the Washington Times that the current turmoil in Lebanon is part of an inexorable process that began last year in Gaza when Hamas wrested control of Gaza and which will spread across the Middle East.
"What happened in Gaza in 2007 is an achievement; now it is happening in 2008 in Lebanon," Khader said in the interview. "It's going to happen in 2009 in Jordan, and it's going to happen in 2010 in Egypt. We are seeing a redrawing of the map of the Middle East where the forces of resistance and steadfastness are the ones moving the things on the ground."
Read more ....
My Comment: When Iran's President talks about his countries development of nuclear technologies and why such an effort must be completed in order to wipe Israel off the map ..... I must believe that he is actually telling the truth of what are his beliefs and goals. On the one hand it is easy to dismiss this little man's beliefs and goals. But he is the President of Iran, and he is the mouthpiece of the religious councils that rule Iran .... a powerful and influential group of religious mullahs that have made no attempt to hide their contempt of Israel, the Sunni sect of Islam, and the West.
But what makes the present situation so dangerous is that while Iran knows it is not in a position to attack Israel today, nor be in a position to support their Shiite brethren throughout the Middle East, they have obvious made a conscious decision to put themselves in a position to do so in the future.
Its support of Hamas and the elimination of Palestinian moderates is one step. Hezbollah's aggression in Lebanon is another. Cementing ties with the ruling Assad Family of Syria (a family that is from the minority Alawites, a small but powerful Shiite sect) is also another. Its support of Shiite groups in the Gulf states and Yemen, as well as international groups that are sympathetic to their cause is another.
In my opinion Iran is doing this for two reasons. (1) To have power and influence .... a feat that would be a fait accompli since much of the world's oil comes from that part of the world. (2) A continuation of the Sunni - Shiite religious conflict that has been ongoing since the birth of Islam.
While many in the West do not see the implications of these developments yet, many in the Sunni Arab world are. From Gateway Pundit -- " Saudi Arabia Warns Iran Over Hezbollah --Iran Responds"
The Saudi Kingdom warned Iran today about meddling in Lebanon. The Lebanese people in Tripoli ransacked and torched a Hezbollah office on Sunday after the Iranian-backed terrorist group attempted a coup on the government. Saudi Arabia lashed out at the Iranian Regime today over the attempted "coup" in Lebanon by the Iranian proxy group Hezbollah. AFP reported: Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal warned on Tuesday that Iran's relations with the Arab world would be affected if Tehran was supporting what he described as a "coup" in Lebanon.
Read more ....
If this religious strife gets out of hand ..... a global Sunni/Shiite war ..... we could then have a conflict in which the magnitude would approach the slaughter and destruction that Europe's religious wars brought about when Catholics and Protestants went to war against each other during the period that is known as the Reformation.
We all had a taste of what could happen when the Shiite and Sunni communities of Iraq started to go at each other after Shiite Holy sites were bombed in 2006. Fortunately, the presence and involvement of U.S. and coalition forces to stop this conflict from spiraling out of control was successful, but not before hundreds of coalition forces were killed and tens of thousands of Iraqis murdered or wounded.
But in todays world of mass and easy communication, weapons of mass destruction, and a culture of persecution and/or hate .... a global religious war could easily dwarf all other past conflicts. The interruption (if not elimination) of oil supplies, mass population shifts, ethnic cleansing ..... followed by a tide of refugees ..... can only result in all major powers becoming involved both politically and militarily for their own personal self interests.
I personally hope that such a conflict will never come about. That with the spread of information and education, cultures in the Middle East would change before such a conflict could ever take root. But if we are not successful, Lebanon could easily be the first step to the commencement of such a conflict.
Recommended Reading:
The Looming Sunni-Shi'ite War? -- Kesher Talk
Roots of the Sunni-Shi'ite War -- Time Magazine
What Is the Difference Between Sunni and Shiite Muslims--and Why Does It Matter? -- History News Network
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