Wednesday, September 10, 2014

The Battle That Changed The Course Of The Ukraine Civil War And That Forced Kiev To Accept A Ceasefire


Ukraine Town Bears Scars of Russian Offensive That Turned Tide in Conflict -- New York Times

ILOVAISK, Ukraine — Burned-out tanks, troop carriers and trucks still lie strewn on the roads and fields all around this town. The body of a Ukrainian soldier hangs doubled over an electric wire, flung up like a doll when his tank exploded. The charred corpse of another soldier lies inside the hull of the tank, a third putrifying torso is tangled in machinery on the road.

It is vivid, if horrifying, evidence of what was a devastating offensive mounted by Russian artillery units at the end of August that smashed the government forces, breaking what had been a relentless advance that had seemed on the verge of crushing the pro-Russian uprising in the country’s southeast. Days later, Ukraine agreed to a cease-fire cementing the rebels’ hold on the region.
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In a matter of five days, beginning on Aug. 28, the previously ill-equipped and inept rebels, backed or led by regular Russian troops and artillery, obliterated almost every Ukrainian position in a 20-square-mile area around this town.

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My Comment: I remember this battle well .... it was a brutal fight that the Ukrainian army was winning .... but quickly ended in a massacre for many Ukrainian soldiers when they were then surrounded by rebel fighters  .... and with locals spotting Russian artillery strikes .... cut to pieces. Even a deal for a Ukrainian withdrawal ended in a carnage when many of these soldiers became exposed on open roads and fields .... and were then quickly picked off. See below ....

Wrecked tanks, deserted playgrounds: Inside the kill zone of eastern Ukraine -- Tim Lister, CNN
Survivors recall Ilovaisk massacre -- Kyiv Post

After this disaster I was reading social media reports (from both sides) that were documenting this massacre .... but I will admit that I was skeptical .... hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers getting killed, wounded, or captured over the course of a few days .... it was hard to accept these numbers. But a few days later I was on a Skype call with a friend who is also a Ukrainian deputy in parliament .... and he was expressing his shock to me on how many Ukrainian soldiers were killed, wounded, and captured during this battle and withdrawal. And what horrified him and his colleagues even more was the awareness that even the Ukrainian military were unsure on what were the final numbers .... as they had lost all communications with this battle-group. All that they knew was that their lines were collapsing, the hospitals in Kiev were already overflowing with wounded soldiers, and that the Ukrainian army was now fleeing in panic in front of this onslaught.

It was then that I realized that this war was entering a new and very bloody phase. Russia was now clearly committed to defending it's allies in the pro-Russian Ukrainian rebel movement .... the question that needed to be answered was .... what was Ukrainian President Poroshenko going to do in response to this aggression.

Last week .... reports that Russian military units were moving to the coastal city of Mariupol made the news .... and no surprise .... talks of a ceasefire started to make the rounds.  .... a few days later with Ukrainian President Poroshenko at the NATO summit .... after being told that NATO was not going to provide him direct military aid .... he accepted (reluctantly) the provisions of a ceasefire.

I still believe it was NATO declining to assist Ukraine militarily in the conflict .... coupled with Russian military units moving in on Mariupol .... that made President Poroshenko accept this ceasefire. But with time I am convinced that the battle for Ilovaisk will be the battle that will be remembered for changing the course of this civil war. Kudos to the New York Times for covering this story.

3 comments:

Rhaegar said...

1.
Do you think the ceasefire will hold? Since there is signs that it may break, since Ukraine wont give independence to DPR and LPR. Also there have been troop movements on both sides.
2.
If the ceasefire breaks, will there be war for a long time or a new one be implemented after short time?
3.
Has Poroshenko given up or will he continue fighting? Also is there any news about tension in Kiev, where right sector and Svoboda members might be protesting or will protest in the future.
4.
Does Poroshenko have the influence to avoid a coup and stay in power, if the war ends with the separatists getting "special" status? Also is the right wing strong enough to attempt a coup?
5.
I have read that the Ukrainian economy is in total catastrophe, how significant has it influenced the local population? Also if the economic problems continue will this fuel even more unhappiness and increased risk of separatists of other part of Ukraine, Like Kharkov?

War News Updates Editor said...

1. If Ukrainian military units remain in Luhansk and Donetsk, and there is no follow-up from Ukrainian President Poroshenko on talks and granting autonomy .... there will be fighting.

2. If the ceasefire breaksdown .... the conflict will last for a long time.

3. Poroshenko has always struck me as a stubborn man. he talks peace and autonomy .... but his actions push for war.

As for Right Sector and other Ukrainian nationalist groups .... my next post will be covering them.

4. For the moment .... Poroshenko is political safe. But if the winter is harsh .... he will be put under tremendous political pressure to do something.

5. The Ukraine economy is a mess. The part of my family who lives in Ukraine are OK .... but times are getting tough for everyone. This is Kiev's weakness .... and if the economic situation does not improve .... separatist supporters in places like Odessa and Kharkiv will start to voice their anger.

Rhaegar said...

Thank you for this information, its good to know, also very useful, you have good sources. Just to ask one time in the future can you cover the social unrest in Sweden?