Thursday, April 9, 2015

This Woman Saved The Russian Economy (And Probably Putin's Presidency)

Governor of the Russian central bank, Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina

Raúl Ilargi Meijer, The Automatic Earth: Russia’s Central Bank Governor Is Way Smarter Than Ours

It wouldn’t be a first, but it would certainly be a – bigger – shock. That is to say, the Bank of England hijacked the head of Canada’s central bank some time ago, but, while unexpected enough, that would pale in comparison to the US hiring the present Governor of the Russian central bank, Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina. It would still seem to be a mighty fine idea, though.

Not that I think it will happen, not to worry if you think Yellen is just what it takes at the Fed. But Nabiullina is both razor sharp and fiercely independent. Yellen is obviously neither; she’s a cog in a machine that huffs and puffs and pumps and dumps to make sure her overlords in the blissful world of US finance make ever more profit no matter how bad things get in American society.

WNU Editor: Russia is like any other country in the world .... the economy is the driving force for a government's popularity. When sanctions were imposed against Russia last year the intent was clear .... by hurting the Russian economy the hope was that it would then put pressure on Putin to scale back his government's involvement in Ukraine. While the crisis in Ukraine is still ongoing, Russia's economy has certainly not collapsed as many were predicting last year .... and in fact has now stabilized. What's my take .... Raúl Ilargi Meijer above analysis is supported by many of my Russian friends and acquaintances .... that because of the monetary policies instituted by the Russian Central Bank much of the detrimental effects of sanctions have been mitigated. For the moment .... my take is that many in Russia are feeling relieved .... but it should be noted that the crisis in Ukraine is still ongoing and oil prices (the "mother's milk" for the Russian government) are still weak .... and for the Russian economy to grow, this has to change. It should also be noted that the Russian economy needs structural reforms (less bureaucracy and more the rule of law) .... and unless this is also not changed .... the Russian economy will never achieve its true potential. But I suspect that Governor of the Russian central bank Elvira Nabiullina knows that too.

Hat Tip: Zero hedge

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

That article has a truly obnoxious triumphalist tone. It's like ten paragraphs of calling people idiots, and one sentence of actual economic analysis.

Anyway, good for her for making the right move, but she had a much easier problem to solve. Most countries now need to push rates down, but are at or near zero and need to be creative. She only had to use the basic Central Banking 101 playbook: currency down, and want it to go up? Capital flowing out but you want it to flow in? Raise rates! Points for audacity, though: a big jump all at once changes the narrative now while avoiding having to keep raising rates and turning the story back to "oh they have to raise over and over, so ineffectual" later.